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Lux Aeterna ll

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  1. Manny Machado 2019 Outlook

    Obviously, Manny ending up in San Diego isn’t ideal for fantasy purposes. But I agree with others who have said his value won’t take a huge hit. Petco isn’t a hitters park by any stretch, but I doubt it’ll hurt his power or average too much (I have him down for 32 homers and a ~.280 average, both of which would be great in my opinion). I don’t think there’s any reason to believe it alone will turn him into anything less than an ‘elite’ fantasy asset, now or in the future. Additionally, given the Padres’ running tendencies (top-8 in the MLB in attempts per game the last few years), I think there’s reason to believe he’ll maintain his solid SB total from last year, if not exceed it (I’m projecting him to reach 14). That’d help bolster his value. The concern comes in with his supporting cast. If Manny is going to come anywhere near 185 R+RBI, he needs Eric Hosmer and Wil Myers to be healthy and productive. Hosmer in particular needs to avoid repeating the disappearing act he put on last year, and get back to the .345+ OBP/115+ wRC+ hitter he’s capable of being so Manny has someone to drive in. Myers simply needs to be available in more than 100 games so he can offer some protection behind him. If either of those guys goes down or underperform, things could go sideways quick. The Padres as currently constructed have little other help to offer, and Manny could struggle to reach the 180 R+RBI mark without them. That new floor (while not terrible) depresses his value a bit, especially when you consider that early projections for him baked in the possibility of him landing in Philly, New York, or even Chicago (whose lineup and park are slightly better, in my opinion). All said, for 2019, I think Manny is a rock solid mid-to-late second round pick. I don’t think he’ll deliver on the mid-first round upside some (myself included) believed he had entering the winter, but he’s still a guy I’d love to grab with the 18th pick or later. A ~.281/.348/.514 92R/32HR/95RBI/14SB player is no one to sneeze at. A quick note for dynasty/keeper owners: I wouldn’t sell low on him this year. His move to SD, and whatever numbers he puts up this year, should not materially decrease his value. He’s still a young, proven stud who may not have reached his ceiling. Much better years lie ahead of both him and the Padres as prospects like Urias and Tatis make their way up.
  2. Jonathan Schoop 2018 Outlook

    Geez, this dude has picked things up in a hurry. Another homer today to go along with 3 RBI’s. Up to 17 bombs/ 40 (!) runs batted in for the season. This man has quite the line. The power is there, but those other counting stats ?
  3. Rougned Odor 2018 Outlook

    This dude’s found a whole new gear. Flashing his speed with his in the parker and power with the bomb. Hope he can keep it up.
  4. Jonathan Schoop 2018 Outlook

    And there’s his fourth home run in his last four days. This dude’s been feeling himself lately; making up for lost time.
  5. Jonathan Schoop 2018 Outlook

    Uh-oh, here comes the power. Third homerun in four games. He’s looked like a different hitter these past few weeks.
  6. Manny Machado 2018 Outlook

    Up to 65 RBI’s to along with 48 runs on a bad Orioles team. Wouldn’t be surprised to seem get up to a combined 210+ if he could just get off that squad.
  7. Brian Dozier 2018 Outlook

    Goes 2/6 with a homerun, two runs scored, and 5 RBI’s in the final game before the break. This dude’s ended the 1st half on one hell of a tear.
  8. Ian Happ 2018 Outlook

    I play in an OPS league as well, so when I saw him sitting on waivers, I decided to take a flier and see what he can do in the second half. With him, it looks kinda like a good news/bad news situation. The good news is that he's been much better over his last month and a half than he was to begin the year. Namely, since June 1, he has a .282 AVG to go along with a .413 OBP (which has been bolstered by a 18.3 walk rate), good for a WRC+ of 125. Also, his strikeout rate has been a "better" 31%, down from an unsightly 39.6% he posted through the end of May. So he's certainly been improving as the season has wore on. The bad news, to CAT's point, is that the counting stats haven't been there at any point in the season. Even during his increased success, he's only hit 3 HR's (slugging .408 since June 1), scored 17 runs, and driven in 8. That's largely to do with him hitting so low in the lineup, a situation that won't be easily remedied. My hope is that he'll be able to find a more consistent power stroke moving forward, which will convince Maddon to move him up a few spots in the lineup. That would solve many of his fantasy problems, but won't be an easy fix given his strikeout issues. I believe he can do it, and am taking my chances with him, but it's easy to see why so many have been discouraged with his output thus far.
  9. Rotoworld Summer H2H Mock Draft

    I’d like to participate in the next available mock, should there be room.
  10. 2018 NBA Offseason and Free Agency Thread

    Love the Jabari Parker signing by Chicago. Think it’s almost a perfectly executed deal: big money, but limited commitment (1 + 1 team option) for a young talent with [pretty serious] injury concerns. If he can stay healthy, he’ll likely be another building block the Bulls can use to strengthen their promising core. If he just can’t find a way to stay on the court, the Bulls can decline the team option, no harm no foul. If their young guys can stay healthy, Chicago looks like it’ll be a really fun team to watch at a minimum this year.
  11. Zack Godley 2018 Outlook

    I think he’ll continue to improve, and I’m willing to take my chances with him. The key between him being an okay and good option will be his control. He’s got a 4.53 BB/9 so far this year and a 1.53 WHIP. Those have got to come down. Hopefully he can make some sort of adjustment during the break.
  12. Trae Young 2018-2019 Season Outlook

    I personally wouldn’t draft him before round 10 because of efficiency question marks, but I like his long term outlook. He’s got unlimited range and a very good passer. I think he’ll grow stronger/more athletic as he gets older, making his life easier than it’ll be starting out. I will also say that I’d be incredibly surprised if Young doesn’t see 25+ minutes per game over the course of this season. The Hawks don’t have the intention or talent to compete, which means they’ll have to find some way to gets fans in the seats. Young brings the hype and energy the Hawks can sell, which to me says he’ll be seeing some major minutes early, regardless of Lin and what they do with Schroeder (who doesn’t want to be in Atlanta, and who the Hawks have no intention of keeping).
  13. 2018 NBA Offseason and Free Agency Thread

    Yeah, brutal turn for IT.
  14. 2018 NBA Offseason and Free Agency Thread

    Good points.
  15. 2018 NBA Offseason and Free Agency Thread

    That’s all very fair and makes sense. You’re right about next offseason; not certain the Bulls FO are wanting to rush things too much. It may hurt down the line, if he doesn’t evolve his game a bit, but Lavine could have proved himself by then. As for Smart, I agree he’s got a low offensive floor, but I think he could have easily been had for 4/52 while guaranteeing you a grinder/gamer. But again, I’m very optimistic of Dunn and the trajectory of this team, and that’s exactly where flexibility becomes important. If I’m a GM, I want to have the ability to sign whomever maximizes my chances of success, regardless of what position they play, whether they’re a vet, etc. Having an extra 20 Mil to spend on others does that. To use the Blazers as an example, how much better could they have been if they’d decided not to sign Evan Turner when they had all that space? Lavine is a better player than Turner was, and his deal isn’t nearly as bad, but the point remains: be careful how you spend your money when you have space. It disappears fast, and can hamstring you at the least opportune times. But it’s all academic at this point. He hasn’t played a minute under this deal, and we haven’t seen how he’ll recover/improve a year removed from his injury. To your point, he’s not the worst guy to give this money to (I.e. Turner, Mozgov, Biyambi, etc.). We’ll see how it all turns out. Worst case, he’s an electric above the rim scorer with range. That’s not so bad.