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About justaguy

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  1. Earliest Earliest I'd daft Drummond is at 9. I cant in good conscious draft him before Lebron and Embiid, even though I'm his biggest fan. If I'm picking 9 through 12, I'm going with Dre in a heartbeat. I did some mocks where I did some variation of: Round 1 - Drummond Round 2 - Gobert Round 3 - Porzingis/Ayton/Collins Round 4.) Heild/Markannen/Lavine/Conley Round 5.) Lowry/Bledsoe Round 6.) BroLo/Gallinari The rest of my picks were aimed at shoring up 3s, steals and assists. Outside of picking #1, I was most happy with my Drummond-Gobert punt FT build
  2. Team build is an important consideration. Better to include context than discuss in a vacuum Edit: Though, I wouldn't say both are equally durable. Gobert has a pattern of playing sub-65 games every other season since he entered the league: 45,82,61,81,56, 81. If you believe in that pattern, then he's due for a serious hit to his GP this year (not saying I subscribe to that superstitious belief, but the pattern is undeniable and certainly makes him less durable than Drummond). It's a good problem to have to pick between the two in the 2nd round; but more times than not I'd take Dre. (I enjoy punting FT% anyway- you can get stat stuffers like Ben Simmons and Russ at a bargain if you do)
  3. I only do H2H 9-Cat , and I'd go Dre, Gobert then Vuc. Dre's boards and steals far outrank Gobert. And Gobert just doesn't outpace Dre in blocks by enough to make up for what you're losing in other cats. Also, Drummond has been an Iron man for the past 6 years: 81, 82, 81, 81, 78, and 79 GP. I'm not concerned about any injuries that happened 7 years ago I know alot of people are buying into Vuc this year, but I'm not sure if he'll produce again like that this year.
  4. Dre was on a lot of winning teams with the way he finished the season last year. High durability, gaudy d-stats, monster boards and high fg% with only a small hit on TOs. FT% wasnt sub 40%, which hes known to do in the past. Potentially a contract year since he can opt out and make serious cash next summer. Top 10 pick in my opinion- would love to get him between 12-15 17/16/1.3/1.5/2 on 58% FG% and 63% FT. (I know the projection for FT% is high given his history but it looks like he has been working on his stroke this offseason)
  5. Just read that Beal is eligible to sign a 5-year, $253 million dollar contract next summer if he makes an all NBA team. Given that incentive and his recent durability, I'm looking to take him at the turn of the first/second round. 28/5/6 with 1.5 steals on 48% shooting. Three 3PM per game is also probable
  6. 5 assists? Thats more than Marc Gasol's best assist year. I expect 1-2 assists per game...
  7. Big man re-signed in Memphis. With Ja, Clarke and JJJ as the clear building blocks for the Grizzlies, what role do you predict JV having? I'm anticipating something like 17 and 8 with a block on elite percentages (50%+ fg and 80% from the FT line). With so many quality big men and the lack of reliable stocks, is 4th/5th round reasonable despite his efficiency?
  8. He'll kill your TOs and quite possibly fg%. Great addition if you are punting TOs or have high efficiency players that can absorb his detriments. Reminds me of Russ in that sense - his value varies depending on team composition.
  9. Lol, "agree to disagree " in this context simply means that you want the last word. I don't think Kawhi plays less than 65 games without an additional injury. And if he does, the Clippers will be a a 7/8 seed or not make the playoffs. I dont see a PG/Harrell/LouWill team beating GS, LAL, Utah, Denver, Portland, Houston They will be in a dogfight against DAL, NOLA, Sacremento, SAS, Minny They likely win against the Suns, OKC and Memphis. We'll see how it plays out. The West is much better than last year - the Lakers, Jazz, Rockets (?), and Dallas all got a lot better. This improvement happened with many of last years playoff teams manag(Denver, Portland, SAS) staying roughly the same. GS is still solid, and Sacramento will be better this year. Minny has the talent to surprise people and bounce back. Its silly to compare the competitiveness of the West, top to bottom, this year to last year. Also, StifleTower your 50-12 projection extrapolates to a 66 win team over 82 games. I find that to be a huge reach. You really think the Clippers are that much better than the rest of the league? Their over/under is set at 55.5 games lol....second to Milwaukee. The Oddsmakers dont believe the Clippers are that much better than everyone else...even if assume they are factoring in some load management for Kawhi.
  10. I disagree with this - I dont think the Clippers are good enough to make the playoffs if Kawhi takes 20+ games off. The West is stacked and most teams feel like they are playoff material - so the incentive to tank for many of them is minimal. The Clippers are going to need Kawhi and PG to play as much possible to stay in the hunt. No chance they repeat anything close to what the Raptors did last year without him (17-5).
  11. Said today at the presser that he is fully healthy and the goal is to play a full season. Sounds like load management was a ploy to minimize the number of regular season games he suited up for a team he planned on leaving. I expect 70ish games this year. But I also anticipate diminished offensive numbers this year . Something like 24/6.5/2 and 1.5 steals on 47% shooting.
  12. If you want to disagree, outline your rebuttal and move on. No reason to be weak about it.
  13. 1.) Clippers underachieve greatly. I think they disappoint everyone and win between 48-50 games. People forget the Raptors were something like 17-5 without Kawhi. But that was in the East. There's no way the Clippers can replicate that success without him. Speaking of which, I think Kawhi has a down year offensively. He's played with real smart, HoF-ish point guards in Toronto and San Antonio who orchestrate the offense. Without that in LAC, I see his numbers and efficiency go down. 2.) Kevin Love is traded sometime this season. My gut says Denver gets him. Makes more sense to me than Portland, from an asset perspective. 3.) Zion doesn't finish First Team All Rookie. 4.) Hawks make the playoffs
  14. Target Drummond over MitchRob in the 2nd round. I'll take a flier on him in the 4th round, if he's available.