elroypedro

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  1. He had 10 in his last 15. Julio had 0 in his first 7 and 8 in his last 9. None of that matters as much as their longer term average. Which at this point is 0.46 TD per game for Julio over his career, and 0.63 TD per game for Ridley. Dont expect Julio’s number to jump up from 8, as these are his TD totals by year in his career: 8, 10, 2, 6, 8, 6, 3, 8. It is fair to expect Ridley’s number to regress, but it is also fair to project it to stay in a similar range or even increase if he receives roughly 25% more targets, which is a moderate/conservative projection. Which is why I’d say the most fair TD projection for Ridley would involve projecting regression in TD rate and an increase in target volume, keeping his likely TD outcome in the same range as last year, at +-10.
  2. Dude you’ve gotten blown out of the water here with fact after fact. You make things up whole cloth out of thin air, so it isn’t hard to expose your BS. You haven’t presented one single piece of evidence to support anything you have posted. Try harder or just leave.
  3. Matt Ryan had 608 attempts last year. The 5th most of his career. In fact, these are his pass attempt numbers with Koetter as his OC: 615, 651, 628. Koetter last year in TB had 623 pass attempts in his offense. Koetter is obviously the OC again in Atl. You are just making up BS arguments out of thin air at this point.
  4. This is a ridiculously bad take. Lets look at another comparison. Likely the best IRL and Fantasy WR of the last decade. Antonio Brown. Combine stats: AB - 5’10” 185 4.56 40y, 6.98 3-cone 33.5” vert, 105” broad jump 31” arms, 73” wingspan Ridley - 6’0” 190 4.43 40y, 6.88 3-cone 31” very, 110” broad jump 31.5” arms, 75.5” wingspan But AB was 22 entering the league, and Ridley was 23. Yowza! Here are AB’s 22, 23, and 24 year old seasons stats(Targets/receptions/yards/TDs): 22 - 19/16/167/0 23 - 123/69/1108/2 24 - 105/66/787/5 Here is Ridley’s 23 year old season(turned 24 at end of season, so Ridley was .5 year older than AB for his seasons: 23 - 92/64/821/10 So Ridley compares not only equally to AB and Diggs in their measurable stats, but favorably. Same in his first year production.
  5. Yes but he continued on to actually do even better in his next two games(in the playoffs). It is a small sample size, including the playoffs only 6 games, but there isn’t a good reason to believe he won’t produce at least near the same level this year. Even if he regresses a major amount, if he is given normal touches as the starter in KC(Hunt in 208 = 20.3, Hunt in 2017 = 18.8, Williams in 2018 = 19.6), he projects as a top 3 fantasy RB in 2019.
  6. The above is mostly comparing just rushing, where Williams seems clearly to be a step above Hunt. Williams is at the very least Hunt’s equal as a pass catcher. Hunt has higher YPR but Williams much better catch rate, 0% drop rate, and much better TD rate in receiving than Hunt. Williams is a very good pass blocker as well, better than the mediocre Hunt as well.
  7. Well if you want to know how good he was per touch rather than overall after only playing 1/4 of a season, then just look at the other stat. #12 in yards created per touch. It is a pretty bunched up stat, but he is clearly in the higher end in the league. Here are a bunch of his stats/advanced stats compared to Hunt last year in the same backfield. Even the adjusted stats favor Williams, basically across the board: 2018YPCHunt 4.6Williams 5.1True YPC(adjusted for defense)Hunt 4.3Williams 4.9Production Premium(efficiency adjusted for defense)Hunt +24.1 (#10 overall)Williams +42.5 (#2 overall)Evaded TacklesHunt 57 - 5.2pgWilliams 25 - 6.25pg Juke RateHunt 27.5%Williams 34.2%Yard Created TotalHunt 324 in 11 games (#14 in 11 games total)Williams 122 in 4 games (#55 in 4 games total)Yards Created Per CarryHunt 1.57 (#18)Williams 1.67 (#12)Yards Per Carry vs 6-7-8 men BoxHunt 5.6 - 4.2 - 2.3Williams 5.0 - 4.9 - 6.6Fantasy Points Per Touch .5pprHunt 1.07D Williams 1.35
  8. Well that is a lie. He is #12 in yards created per touch last year, not #112. For reference, Barkley was #5 at 1.95. Damien Williams #12 at 1.67. Kareem Hunt #18 at 1.57. #55 overall in total yards created, despite only starting 4 games. #51 overall in evaded tackles, despite only starting 4 games. [Saquon was #1 with 114 over 16 games, 7.1 per game. Damien has 25 over 4 games, 6.25 per game] So, he is rather elite by those numbers.
  9. I think Ridley’s best comp is Stefon Diggs. Diggs: 6’0” 195 4.46 40y 7.03 3 cone Best trait - Route running Ridley: 6’1” 190 4.43 40y 6.88 3 cone Best trait - Route running But Diggs didn’t put up numbers like Ridley’s rookie year until year 3 and 4 in the league, and only did so on SIGNIFICANTLY higher target volume. Get this: on 149 targets, Diggs had 102/1021/9. 217 fantasy points. (.5ppr) on 92 targets, Ridley had 62/821/10. 174 fantasy points. (.5ppr) If Ridley had Diggs’ target volume last year, his numbers would extrapolate to 103/1330/16, which would have put Ridley right smack dab between Tyreek Hill and Deandre Hopkins for number 2 overall WR. Of course, it’s not fair to just extrapolate that literally, but it is pretty safe to say that Diggs only put up better numbers than Ridley due to target volume. And that should take a big bump for Ridley this year. If he is valued less than Diggs in redraft it should definitely raise some eyebrows of more seasoned fantasy players, and if he is valued less than Diggs in dynasty move on it now!
  10. Yeah that is totally fair. I too would like to see him be more consistent. Which I think he will for many reasons actually. Year 2 as a WR. Usually a big jump year 2 or year 3. Koetter back and higher volume downfield passing attack should occur, with more targets to go around than last year. Snap percentage/total number of snaps should go up for Ridley significantly, as he only started 5 games over Sanu last year, and was outsnapped by Sanu 830 to 640. Those numbers should swap this year, plus Koetter uses a lot more 3 we sets like last year in TB w Evans/Godwin/Humphries. Playing indoors for a record first 13 weeks of the season, where Ridley put up basically all of his best numbers last year, and where Matt Ryan excels. Hopefully those things combined with his elite speed, agility, and route running will help him to improve his consistency and that he works himself to improve his contested catching this off season.
  11. Seriously? SERIOUSLY??? This is just straight up grade A trolling at this point. It has been posted many times that both the GM and OC(who is their former RB coach that uses starters at about 19 touches per game), has named Williams the starter, given him major votes of confidence as such, and said explicitly that he is “expected to excel in that role.” It is completely fair at this point to say anything you post here can be immediately ignored because you are not posting in good faith.
  12. Might want to take into account three things in projecting better numbers for Ridley: 1) second year in the NFL. Often big bump in year 2 or 3 for WRs 2) Koetter is the coach again, expect a high volume downfield passing attack 3) playing indoors for something ridiculous like their first 13 weeks On top of what has been listed about his talent and roster situation, the above facts definitely point to a higher projection for him than he finished last year. I think I would stick to 80/1000/10 and call that conservative, as that would only be a moderate uptick in volume and actually a regression in efficiency to project that.
  13. Good to know. I told ya, my snap judgement was deceiving me!
  14. FYI .5ppr is now the most used format in fantasy. Several platforms have now switched to .5ppr as their standard format, including Yahoo. And for what I was using it for, it is the perfect medium between Standard and PPR to capture the value of player production.