30Burger

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  1. I don’t see any problem with drafting both Chubb and Hunt other than losing that roster spot. For the first 10 weeks you should have a top RB and if Chubb goes down then u have a golden handcuff. Hunt’s getting drafted right around other handcuffs/lottery tickets like Latavius Murray, Miles Sanders, Darrell Henderson and Rashaad Penny. If I go Chubb I’d rather lock up that Browns backfield then take one of those guys
  2. ^doubt the defenses change much if Tyreek ends up playing but I could definitely see his efficiency decreasing if given a full season workload
  3. @ajs723 Obviously those 3 guys are better RBs than Williams, but Reid has shown through all his years that he prefers to have 1 main RB (and whoever that RB is SCORES POINTS). Even with how average Ware is he still received 214 carries and 42 targets as the main RB in 2016. In 2018, with a better RB/QB combo in Hunt/Mahomes and some other great offensive pieces, Hunt was on pace for 263 carries and 50.88 targets (he had 63 targets in 2017). Re-looking at my projections, You were right, I definitely had Williams reception count, receiving TDs and yardage waaay too high. But I do think he will be targeted slightly more than both Ware and Hunt have been in previous seasons based off his usage at the end of last year (think ~70 targets) and not get beat out by Hyde or others for the main carries (though they will still take SOME away). Readjusted my rankings and lowered D. Williams to be projected at: 163 carries, 831 rushing yards / 6 TD, 53 receptions, 474 receiving yards / 4 TDs. In standard scoring this places him as my RB#17, below Marlon Mack + Derrick Henry but above Josh Jacobs + Kerryon Johnson. So good looks on the back end RB2 projection, I'm just a little bit higher on Williams but still think he's being over drafted. As for Lindsay, I don't think they are going to drop Booker as hard as you think but it's not a big deal. I don't want any part of that backfield/RRBC Thanks for the insight!
  4. here's a tweet showing Andy Reid's RB1 averages since 2004. Andy Reid RB1 per game basis: 15.1 rushes, 70.3 rushing yards, 0.5 rushing TD, 4.2 receptions, 36.5 receiving yards, 0.3 receiving TD My Damien Williams per game projection: 10.2 rushes, 51.9 rushing yards, 0.56 rushing TD, 4.25 receptions, 39.9 receiving yards, 0.25 receiving TD So i actually did take into account Carlos Hyde and took away some carries and rushing yards from Reid's average. I agree that there are a lot of backs they brought in but until we hear any news or scouting reports that say Williams is struggling I'm sticking with him as the main RB1 and giving him the TDs. As for Lindsay and Royce, I don't think a 190 pound running back will be able to carry a full season workload + Freeman was dealing with an ankle injury throughout the mid season. I expect the splits to be more even for 2019.
  5. Cause I'm bored as shiiiit, love fantasy football and sit on a computer at work all day lol. It helps me see what different draft combinations would be better based off my point projections.
  6. @ajs723 Aaron Jones averaged 3.1 receptions when he was the main ball carrier weeks 8-14 (projected for 49.6 receptions / 16 games). Phillip Lindsay had 35 receptions in 15 games last year. I think both are going to be more in an RRBC than people expect. Lindsay will still be the main pass-catching back so I kept him around the same receptions but lowered his carries. I think Jamal Williams and Aaron Jones will both get equal looks and thus hurt each other's value barring injury (but he is still really efficient). Damien Williams averaged 4.3 receptions per game weeks 13-20 when he was the only RB (68 receptions / 16 game pace). That's right where I have him at in the rankings.
  7. Alright updated list and I'll stop blowing up this thread. Took into account everything you guys said and realized I went a little bit yardage and TD crazy on some guys. I still think there will be more passing to RBs this year and a larger amount of high-scoring RBs available compared to previous years. Have at it Player Tier Games Carries Rushings yds Rushing TD Receptions Receiving yds Receiving TD YPC STD Points Ezekiel Elliot 1 16 330 1551 12 90 544 4 4.70 305.5 Saquon Barkley 1 16 249 1195 11 105 823 5 4.80 297.8 Alvin Kamara 1 16 201 930 12 103 843 6 4.63 285.3 Christian McAffrey 1 16 225 1102 10 96 777 6 4.90 283.9 David Johnson 2 16 269 1182 8 85 833 4 4.39 273.5 Le'veon Bell 2 16 301 1178 9 81 688 4 3.91 264.6 James Connor 2 16 264 1188 12 67 563 2 4.50 259.1 Todd Gurley 3 13 231 1131 11 53 445 4 4.90 247.6 Dalvin Cook 3 16 241 1181 8 62 527 4 4.90 242.8 Leonard Fournette 3 15 301 1324 10 46 377 2 4.40 242.1 Melvin Gordon 3 15 263 1131 10 54 448 4 4.30 241.9 Joe Mixon 3 16 262 1257 9 56 425 2 4.80 234.2 Damien Williams 4 16 163 831 8 68 639 4 5.10 219 Nick Chubb 4 16 233 1211 10 36 266 1 5.20 213.7 Devonta Freeman 4 15 210 1008 9 59 462 2 4.80 213 Marlon Mack 4 16 260 1222 10 28 182 1 4.70 206.4 Derrick Henry 5 16 294 1264 9 24 149 0 4.30 195.3 Josh Jacobs 5 16 215 935 7 42 352 1 4.35 176.7 Kerryon Johnson 5 16 193 968 6 48 340 1 5.02 172.8 Aaron Jones 5 16 171 906 8 34 268 1 5.30 171.4 Mark Ingram 5 16 196 1014 7 29 218 1 5.17 171.2 Lamar Miller 5 16 227 935 6 39 316 1 4.12 167.1 Sony Michel 6 16 222 947 9 15 61 0 4.27 154.8 Phillip Lindsay 6 15 162 794 7 34 245 1 4.90 151.9 Tarik Cohen 6 16 95 423 2 64 619 5 4.45 146.2 Derrius Guice 6 14 177 814 5 29 267 1 4.60 144.1 Chris Carson 6 16 166 813 6 26 205 0 4.90 137.8
  8. 1. I think Lev will get the usage of 300 carries just so Gase can get the most out of his money. Not worried about his football shape, just the Jets O-line (I'm changing his rushing so he's more like 1100-1200 yards and a 3.9 ypc). I think the bad o-line will actually help Bell get more passes so I kept that around his average. 2. Going back through and checking that out. Thanks for the feedback I'm just trying to get accurate projections 3. I looked at their season averages and how those have changed/remained the same from the situations they are in now. Then adjusted for the YPC I thought they would get around, TD regression/progression, increase/decrease in volume, better offense, etc. and looked at the same stuff with receiving. @Farfromhome- Good looks I'll check it out. Obviously, this is projected that every RB plays mostly 16 games, which never occurs and will increase the total amount of RBs that actually finish as projected.
  9. Predict he'll be a mid-WR2 that goes later in drafts. Especially if Cam can get healthy and throw more than 15+ yards.
  10. 1st edit: upped Le'veon's carries to better reflect the heavy workload / lower YPC he should receive on the Jets. Le'veon Bell 2 16 301 1288 9 81 688 4 4.28 275.6 316.1
  11. My very early RB rankings and projections. I know I left out most rookies and later round guys so let me know who you think I should add. Most RBs are projected out to 16 games other than a few with obvious injury concerns (and even then I only put them down to 15 games [other than Todd], I prefer full season projections and then just factor in injury concerns when actually drafting). Let me know where we differ so we can get some productive discussions going. A few players that stand out based on their current ADP: high on Leonard Fournette and Devonta Freeman, low on Melvin Gordon ***will likely move Chris Carson down (recent groin injury) and Derrius Guice up depending on how their injuries play out Player Tier Games Carries Rushings yds Rushing TD Receptions Receiving yds Receiving TD YPC STD Points 0.5 PPR Ezekiel Elliot 1 16 330 1551 12 83 672 4 4.70 318.3 359.8 Saquon Barkley 1 16 249 1195 11 105 823 5 4.80 297.8 350.3 Alvin Kamara 1 16 201 930 12 103 843 6 4.63 285.3 336.8 Christian McAffrey 1 16 225 1102 10 96 777 6 4.90 283.9 331.9 David Johnson 2 16 269 1182 8 85 833 5 4.39 279.5 322 Le'veon Bell 2 16 274 1288 9 81 688 4 4.70 275.6 316.1 James Connor 2 16 264 1188 12 67 563 2 4.50 259.1 292.6 Todd Gurley 3 13 231 1131 11 53 445 4 4.90 247.6 274.1 Dalvin Cook 3 16 241 1181 8 62 527 4 4.90 242.8 273.8 Leonard Fournette 3 15 301 1324 10 46 377 2 4.40 242.1 265.1 Melvin Gordon 3 15 263 1131 10 54 448 4 4.30 241.9 268.9 Joe Mixon 3 16 262 1257 9 56 425 3 4.80 240.2 268.2 Nick Chubb 4 16 233 1211 10 36 266 3 5.20 225.7 243.7 Damien Williams 4 16 163 831 9 68 639 4 5.10 225 259 Devonta Freeman 4 15 210 1008 10 64 506 2 4.80 223.4 255.4 Marlon Mack 4 16 260 1222 9 28 182 1 4.70 200.4 214.4 Derrick Henry 5 16 294 1264 9 24 149 0 4.30 195.3 207.3 Josh Jacobs 5 16 215 1002 7 42 352 1 4.66 183.4 204.4 Chris Carson 5 16 234 1100 8 26 205 0 4.70 178.5 191.5 Aaron Jones 5 16 171 906 9 34 268 1 5.30 177.4 194.4 Sony Michel 5 16 222 1043 11 15 61 0 4.70 176.4 183.9 Kerryon Johnson 6 16 193 1023 5 48 340 1 5.30 172.3 196.3 Mark Ingram 6 16 225 1014 7 29 218 1 4.51 171.2 185.7 Lamar Miller 6 16 228 935 5 39 316 2 4.10 167.1 186.6 Phillip Lindsay 7 15 162 794 7 34 245 2 4.90 157.9 174.9 Tarik Cohen 7 16 95 449 3 64 582 5 4.73 151.1 183.1 Derrius Guice 7 14 177 814 5 29 267 1 4.60 144.1 158.6
  12. What do you mean not functional? Knees and ankles can bend in any direction and sustain pressure from all angles when being tackled. I could definitely see Alv's ankles stretching to the limits tested in the yoga ball exercise during one of his jukes. The writer of this article also stated that Dr. Tabbah (Alvin's trainer) and Mark Asanovich (trainer criticizing Tabbah's approach) are both qualified under the same conditioning certificates...so how can one be completely wrong? LaDainian Tomlinson trained under similar conditions and had a long and productive career.
  13. I actually feel the opposite...wouldn't this yoga ball training strengthen the ligaments in his ankles and knees to help him avoid sprains/tears during awkward tackles?? Also improves overall balance which will help prevent injury.
  14. Seems comparable to Aaron Jones this year...where you hold him for the first 4-5 weeks until he starts to run away with the job. He's the Eagle's new Shady 😲
  15. Darnold isn't afraid to pass the ball off quick and he scrambles well. Bell is going to be an RB1 regardless of the O-line based off his rushing volume, end zone looks and dump offs. They didn't pay him all this money to not feed him 😁