The Man

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Everything posted by The Man

  1. Two more homers tonight in AAA. Up to 18 and a well over 1.000 OPS with great k and bb rates. I realize there dodgers don't really need help, but why the hell is Austin Barnes and his .630 OPS still starting?
  2. Would you trade Stanton (and Addison Russell - though he's more of a throw in) for Julio Urias and Tyler Mahle in a dynasty league where you can keep players forever (with a cap of 22 players a year) I'm hesitant in giving up a superstar like Stanton for really only Urias and a questionable Tyler Mahle (who has awful career splits and that matters in my sim league)
  3. In this 3-31 stretch he has a .095 BABIP. Which is a sign that he may not be struggling as much. But his 25% to 6% K to BB rate is a sign that he's still not solved things. In his "best case", he's still going to be a middle infielder who doesn't have much power, doesn't steal bases, and strikes out too much to be much help in batting average. His best feature is defense, and that's not going to matter much in fantasy.
  4. Mize is hurt and won't get called up this year most likely. Robert and Adell may get called up, but also are likely the types of guys that will start the season in AAA next year and won't get called up until June no matter how good they are doing because the teams want to save on arbitration. Luis Urias I'd grab. It's only a matter of time before he replaces Kinsler. And when he does, he's here to stay. Kyle Tucker is the other. Both should come up shortly and both should be starters for their teams out of the gate next year. And yes, both stunk in their time in the majors. a .220/.281/.390 line with 30ks in 123 AB is awful. But you know what? That's not either of their production this year. That's Mike Trout's line when he came up to the majors in 2011 before he put up a .963 OPS the next season. Bo Bichette, Carter Kieboom are two other hitters that fit that mold. And Michael Kopech missed this year with TJ surgery, but was one of the best pitching prospects in baseball before he did, and will likely start the season in the White Sox rotation.
  5. I feel like more and more teams are going to be going to "openers". I could see him starting as one of those 3-4 inning guys like the Rays have. He's just so small, I could see the Yankees breaking him in that way
  6. Kirilloff and Kelenic have the most upside Kiriloff is stuck at 1b/DH most likely so if his bat doesn't come around, he may not be worth it. If you don't want to waste it on that, I'd go with Brujan
  7. Jordan Balazovic at like 140? Victor Victor Mesa being listed anywhere in the top 200, let alone top 90? The guy had one good year and 4 crap years in Cuba. He's 22 in A ball and has 5 extra base hits in 64 games
  8. If Lux gets promoted, he would not play much. There is a chance that he blows up and they have an OF of Pederson, Verdugo and Bellinger, and then put Muncy at 1b, Lux at 2b, Seager, Turner, but it's not entirely likely. Lux is more of a 2020 guy
  9. Named to the futures game. Only 20 in AA and producing a real solid line at .280/.363/.493. He also has 10 homers and 11 steals. Along with an 11% walk rate and 18% K rate. Not quite as good as Colby Rasmus was when he was 20 at the same level/team/park as Carlson is, but still pretty good. In 2007 Rasmus hit .275/.381/.551 at 20 in AA and was the #5 prospect the next spring (also hit 29 homers and had 18 steals.) He's also 6'2" 205 so more power could come.
  10. One of a very small group of minor leaguers producing both power and speed. 20 years old in A+. Hitting .254/.324/.464. Only a .289 BABIP so all those numbers could be a bit higher. Has 12 homers and 18 steals in just about half a season (310 PA). He's a SS, though seems destined to move to 2b. Also his steals are apparently more due to awareness than actual speed, which will limit his steals potential in the majors. But for those of you who use minor leaguers to speculate on trade assets, Downs being a 20 homer 30 steal minor leaguer should have some good value. Not considered a big prospect on the prospecting lists, but worth a look if you need someone.
  11. I would take Ohtani and Adell. Mize may have promise, but he'll be on a bad team. Adell and Ohtani should produce and be valuable pretty immediately
  12. 1. you spelled potatoes wrong. 2. Brujan hasn't had power his entire career except for one spell last year in high A. So I don't know why you think his minor wrist issue this year is swaying anyone off the path here. 3. There's no need to be nasty and condescending. Especially when you are wrong.
  13. The history of slap hitting speedsters is not great. Madrigal has a career .79 IsoP. That's really bad. Everyone is comparing him to Altuve or Dustin Pedroia, but Altuve (.153) and Pedroia (.139) showed way more power in the minors. Players with zero power aren't going to get many walks because pitchers have no incentive to pitch carefully to them. Madrigal is going to get balls grooved down the middle because he can't do any real danger if he puts it in play. Brujan has a little more power than Madrigal so I have more confidence in him. But still not a ton. Sanchez could very well end up the best player, but he's all projection right now and there are less risky players on that list. I don't have a report to cite, but I'd bet that if you look at the population of players with an IsoP under say .110 in the minors, you are going to see a significantly higher flame out rate about prospects.
  14. Urias Kelenic Bart Kieboom B McKay Brujan Sanchez Madrigal
  15. The issue is that getting on base with a hit is exceedingly easier in the minors than it is in the majors because the fielders are vastly superior. But if a guy can't hit for power off low minors players, he's going to get his a** handed to him in the majors. Someone that at least has a chance at putting a ball in a gap or over the fence will make pitchers pitch more carefully. You can't steal first. So pitchers aren't going to pitch around Brujan or Edwards if they know that basically the worst case is they hit a single. So they will attack the zone. It's happened time and time again to these speedy slap hitters.
  16. no. Are you? The poster above me asked about Xavier Edwards which is why I was making comments about him and mentioned the SD ownership.
  17. yes, he would be for me. I haven't done a study, but it definitely seems to me that players who can't consistently beat .100 IsoP in the minors, just have no shot in the majors. It's entirely possible that the entire SD Padres organization knows more than me. 12 extra base hits in 65 games is pretty scary. He has like a .390 BABIP right now in the minors. Better pitchers would challenge him more. Better fielders would throw him out more often. The fact that he doesn't strike out much will certainly help him get on base, but this profile of hitter (tiny power, lots of speed) has always concerned me because I just feel like the failure rate is so high.
  18. I would be a cautious about him. These one dimensional speed demons in the minors rarely do much in the majors He's old for his league, and he can't consistently get over .120 isolate slugging. Joey Gathright, Ezequiel Carrera, Eric Young, Jr., Freddy Guzman, Quentin Berry, Jerry Owens, Wayne Lydon, Nyjer Morgan, etc. If a player can't consistently surpass a .120 IsoP, I wouldn't waste time on them because if they can't hit for any power in the minors, they are going to get eaten up in the majors. There are, of course, stories of these guys (like Brett Gardner who had a .95 IsoP in the minors but is .150 in the majors) who find the power and can stay up. Or guys like Juan Pierre who had a .60 IsoP in the minors who never find power, but still manage to slap enough singles around to keep their job. Or you have guys like Billy Hamilton (.97 IsoP)or Rajai Davis (.105 IsoP in the minors) who never really find power (though Rajai did have a .118 IsoP in the majors) and eek out a bottom of the barrel single category SB value in fantasy. But the success rate is so rare. You can look at the fangraphs minor league leaders every year going back to 2006, and if you sort by most steals, you'll see a list of nobodies. Because they can't hit. Brujan does have a little more power (.124 IsoP) but look at Eric Young Jr. Very similar profile to Brujan and he just failed time and time again.
  19. You are way off. People follow baseball. They want to know who are the best future players. Not who is going to be one dimensional player who may help in a few fantasy categories. Finding lists that are EXCLUSIVELY targeting fantasy baseball prospects doesn't really exist. All the major ones - BA, BP, Fangraphs, MLBpipeline, etc, etc, etc, are ALL based on actual baseball value.
  20. Yordan sucks defensively. Fangraphs isn't doing a fantasy baseball top 100. They are doing a baseball top 100. The fact that Yordan is basically stuck at DH (or atrocious fielder) his entire career limits his value. I agree that both Grayson Rodriguez and Dylan Carlson should be in the top 100. They are both just outside (Carlson is 101; Rodriguez is 102). But I'd think both should be much higher.
  21. I don't understand why everyone is upset that he sits vs. lefties. Wouldn't you rather his .550 OPS vs. lefties be on the bench, so you can put literally anyone else in his spot and get actual production? You get his 1.000 OPS vs. righties and someone else's .800 OPS when he's on the bench and you get a superstar instead of his 1.000 OPS vs. righties and .550 OPS vs lefties.
  22. The league has keeps 8 minor leaguers a year, and when kept only cost $1 each year. As a result there's massive auction inflation. Probably about 35% higher than normal. For instance, Betts, Trout, and Scherzer all went for over $60
  23. 12 teams, 5x5 with OPS instead of BA. Ca: Contreras $3 (keeper) 1B: Abreu $14 2B: Carpenter $17 (keeper) 3B: Turner $13 (keeper) SS: Segura $19 (keeper) MI: Shaw $13 (keeper) CI: Myers $20 LF: Rosario $19 CF: Hamilton $5 RF: Domingo Santana $6 UT: Haniger $10 (keeper) UT: McCutchen $17 Bench includes no one useful but Ohtani. Maybe Ji-Man Choi SP: Hendricks $11, Hill $10, Gray $6, Matz $6, Musgrove $6, Wood $4, Godley $2 RP: Allen $11, Alvarado $15, Robertson $13, Herrera $3, Jimenez $4 (closers tend to go super expensive in our league for some reason) I figured for the first time, I'd try to do the strategy where I spent a lot on hitters and closers, and scraping a pitching staff together on discounted SPs. I also tried getting a well balanced team without any major holes or relying on any superstars
  24. Wisdom of the crowds. Take an average of all of them.
  25. also now looking at Vidal Brujan. Since none of the others really jump off the page, he could at least be a game changing speedster.