The Man

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Everything posted by The Man

  1. Unless he signs a long-term contract, they will likely find a way to keep him down. Exactly what happened with Eloy.
  2. I think the only way he starts in AA is if he finshes up great this year AND gets an invite to Spring Training AND does well in the Spring. Seriously doubt it. More likely A+-AA next year. AA-AAA-Majors in 2021
  3. hell, no. Maybe top 20, but there are way more people with far better risk/reward profiles who have performed at much higher levels. I realize his are relative to league is great, but Dylan Carlson for instance, has been more impressive, and no one is claiming he's a top 5 prospect.
  4. Colby Rasmus 2007 age 20 in AA Springfield vs. Dylan Carlson 2019 age 20 in AA Springfield (normalized to Rasmus' 556 PA) Rasmus: 556 PA .275/.381/.551 with 29 homers, 18 steals, 70/108 BB/K (started the next year as the #5 prospect) Carlson: 556 PA .283/.366/.523 with 24 homers, 21 steals, 59/113 BB/K
  5. I gave you all the information you'd need to look it up yourself.
  6. No. In fact, there was the opposite. As of 2-3 weeks ago, Rick Hahn said Robert likely wouldn't debut in the majors until 2020.
  7. I would love to see stats about how often "resting" strained UCLs actually works and isn't merely delaying eventual TJ surgery. It's really going to blow if he tries to come back, pitches in September and turns out he definitely needs TJ Surgery and they wasted 4 months of his recovery. As far as I can tell the only person to successfully rest a UCL and avoid surgery is Tanaka
  8. I have more confidence in Lux as a hitter, but Robert could have a good bit of steals, so I'd probably lean Robert there. Bichette is well behind the other two.
  9. Yes, he is still on a minor league deal. He still has 3 years of service time before he qualifies for arbitration. He still has 3 years of arbitration before he qualifies for free agency. Just because he got a huge signing bonus doesn't change any of his service time issues. If he signed a major league deal, then all the arbitration and all that would be moot. He would have just signed a 6 year $40 million contract or whatever and it wouldn't matter whether he was in the majors or minors and so the team would have an incentive to bring him up. But that isn't the case. It doesn't matter how big his signing bonus was, he still has a minor league deal and so the White Sox have an incentive to screw with his service time to keep control of him longer. The team sucks. and he still only has 300 AB above A ball in his minor league career. He's been killing it, but I'll be very surprised if he comes up before September. And I'd be very surprised if he is "starting full time" before May/June of next year like all other top free agents that teams hold down in the minors. That said, it was odd that they moved him to AAA so early. I figured they would have kept him in AA all year, so they could put him in AAA for a month or two next year to make it less apparent they were manipulating service time.
  10. No, he shouldn't. Are you not used to service time games by teams by now? They aren't going to bring him up now so their sub .500 team can get a month of a rookie and lose a year of control or arbitration savings. If he comes up, it won't be until September at the earliest.
  11. is that only available as a rotowire subscriber? Where do they get it? I'd be interested in the whole data set.
  12. Two more homers tonight in AAA. Up to 18 and a well over 1.000 OPS with great k and bb rates. I realize there dodgers don't really need help, but why the hell is Austin Barnes and his .630 OPS still starting?
  13. Would you trade Stanton (and Addison Russell - though he's more of a throw in) for Julio Urias and Tyler Mahle in a dynasty league where you can keep players forever (with a cap of 22 players a year) I'm hesitant in giving up a superstar like Stanton for really only Urias and a questionable Tyler Mahle (who has awful career splits and that matters in my sim league)
  14. In this 3-31 stretch he has a .095 BABIP. Which is a sign that he may not be struggling as much. But his 25% to 6% K to BB rate is a sign that he's still not solved things. In his "best case", he's still going to be a middle infielder who doesn't have much power, doesn't steal bases, and strikes out too much to be much help in batting average. His best feature is defense, and that's not going to matter much in fantasy.
  15. Mize is hurt and won't get called up this year most likely. Robert and Adell may get called up, but also are likely the types of guys that will start the season in AAA next year and won't get called up until June no matter how good they are doing because the teams want to save on arbitration. Luis Urias I'd grab. It's only a matter of time before he replaces Kinsler. And when he does, he's here to stay. Kyle Tucker is the other. Both should come up shortly and both should be starters for their teams out of the gate next year. And yes, both stunk in their time in the majors. a .220/.281/.390 line with 30ks in 123 AB is awful. But you know what? That's not either of their production this year. That's Mike Trout's line when he came up to the majors in 2011 before he put up a .963 OPS the next season. Bo Bichette, Carter Kieboom are two other hitters that fit that mold. And Michael Kopech missed this year with TJ surgery, but was one of the best pitching prospects in baseball before he did, and will likely start the season in the White Sox rotation.
  16. I feel like more and more teams are going to be going to "openers". I could see him starting as one of those 3-4 inning guys like the Rays have. He's just so small, I could see the Yankees breaking him in that way
  17. Kirilloff and Kelenic have the most upside Kiriloff is stuck at 1b/DH most likely so if his bat doesn't come around, he may not be worth it. If you don't want to waste it on that, I'd go with Brujan
  18. Jordan Balazovic at like 140? Victor Victor Mesa being listed anywhere in the top 200, let alone top 90? The guy had one good year and 4 crap years in Cuba. He's 22 in A ball and has 5 extra base hits in 64 games
  19. If Lux gets promoted, he would not play much. There is a chance that he blows up and they have an OF of Pederson, Verdugo and Bellinger, and then put Muncy at 1b, Lux at 2b, Seager, Turner, but it's not entirely likely. Lux is more of a 2020 guy
  20. Named to the futures game. Only 20 in AA and producing a real solid line at .280/.363/.493. He also has 10 homers and 11 steals. Along with an 11% walk rate and 18% K rate. Not quite as good as Colby Rasmus was when he was 20 at the same level/team/park as Carlson is, but still pretty good. In 2007 Rasmus hit .275/.381/.551 at 20 in AA and was the #5 prospect the next spring (also hit 29 homers and had 18 steals.) He's also 6'2" 205 so more power could come.
  21. One of a very small group of minor leaguers producing both power and speed. 20 years old in A+. Hitting .254/.324/.464. Only a .289 BABIP so all those numbers could be a bit higher. Has 12 homers and 18 steals in just about half a season (310 PA). He's a SS, though seems destined to move to 2b. Also his steals are apparently more due to awareness than actual speed, which will limit his steals potential in the majors. But for those of you who use minor leaguers to speculate on trade assets, Downs being a 20 homer 30 steal minor leaguer should have some good value. Not considered a big prospect on the prospecting lists, but worth a look if you need someone.
  22. I would take Ohtani and Adell. Mize may have promise, but he'll be on a bad team. Adell and Ohtani should produce and be valuable pretty immediately
  23. 1. you spelled potatoes wrong. 2. Brujan hasn't had power his entire career except for one spell last year in high A. So I don't know why you think his minor wrist issue this year is swaying anyone off the path here. 3. There's no need to be nasty and condescending. Especially when you are wrong.
  24. The history of slap hitting speedsters is not great. Madrigal has a career .79 IsoP. That's really bad. Everyone is comparing him to Altuve or Dustin Pedroia, but Altuve (.153) and Pedroia (.139) showed way more power in the minors. Players with zero power aren't going to get many walks because pitchers have no incentive to pitch carefully to them. Madrigal is going to get balls grooved down the middle because he can't do any real danger if he puts it in play. Brujan has a little more power than Madrigal so I have more confidence in him. But still not a ton. Sanchez could very well end up the best player, but he's all projection right now and there are less risky players on that list. I don't have a report to cite, but I'd bet that if you look at the population of players with an IsoP under say .110 in the minors, you are going to see a significantly higher flame out rate about prospects.
  25. Urias Kelenic Bart Kieboom B McKay Brujan Sanchez Madrigal