homerunners123

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About homerunners123

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  1. Help me think about my keepers

    Hey thanks for all the responses here and sorry for taking some time to circle back.. All the diverse opinions highlights how tough my choices are going to be. A couple things to clarify; I meant to say Ozuna insead of Osuna. I am not sure if that would move him up or down people lists but either one is likely on the outside looking in. Also, in terms of Ohtani, I am at Y! so am not sure I would be able to keep both parts which messes up his keeper value especially with the injury. The hitter side would be interesting next year but not the year after if he returns to a part time player. The early comments have me moving Merrifield towards the definite list, joining Yelich,Bregman,Snell,Correa. I then am likely looking at lower upside high floor guys like Diaz/Rendon with guys like Bellinger/Jimenez who offer first round upside. I likely should keep Bellinger given his age and the lack of depth at 1b but am a bit scared by the power shortage this year and limited playing time. Either way the ideal solution is to collect some future assets for some of these players, but that isn't always the easiest, and I want to make sure I am sticking with the right players.
  2. Hey, I am in a 7 player keep forever league and was hoping to get some opinions on who I should be prioritizing keeping. We allow offseason trades so who I keep may be dependent on others interest in trading for certain players but it helps to start with an order/tiers. We are a 12 team 5x5 roto league with only 3 OF spots and 2 UT. In a rough order: Bregman Yelich Correa Snell Rendon Merrifield Bellinger Osuna E Jimenez E Diaz Ohtani (both H and P) The top 4-5 players will almost certainly be kept and then I am looking for opinions on how to prioritize some of the upside players who struggled like Bellinger and Ozuna with safe options like Merrifield and maybe Diaz. The offseason will likely tell us more about Ohtani and his plans for next year so it is likely too early to make a call on him. I also don't know how Y! will handle him as a player next year and the implications that may have on a keeper league. My team was mid-table with year but I have a likely top 3 keeper list so shouldn't be playing for the future too much over today. Thanks
  3. Any thoughts on Wilson Ramos? I see him as one of your largest outperformers relative to ADP but then there isn't even a quick blurb tied to the projection. Thanks
  4. Pitcher Value Touts

    I dont see the difference between lowering your number and missing an opportunity to add to it. As I said earlier all categories really are ratios in capped leagues so a zero does worsen you average. In runs you are trying to get to 750 in 1500 games whereas in ERA you are trying to keep the runs below 600 in 1400 (very rough numbers). If both players the same deviation below average for the same percentage unit (in my example an inning is about equal to a game) they will have the same negative effect. A pitcher has a greater chance to be more deviations below the mean but that has nothing to do with 0 runs being stat neutral (in the same sense a pitcher is limited moreso in how many deviations he can be better than the mean). The concept of trying to avoid pitchers who blow up seems to be an inituitive one. And doing so by drafting high upside guys later instead of safe but bad pitchers also makes sense as a strategy. If they pan out you win big, if they fail you go to waivers and take a guy only a bit worse than your safe option in the later round. I would think that your success in your leagues and particularly with your pitching staffs would be a result of your amazing ability to evaluate these high upside guys and know which to get to round out your pitching staff than because of some stat neutral methodology.
  5. Pitcher Value Touts

    The analysis in point 1 seems to be flawed. Assuming that you play in a league with capped games played every category is really a ratio. If you goal is to have 750 runs but you only have 1500 games to do it in then your goal is .5 runs/game same as ERA is a ratio. If you look at it this way you can see how the player who puts up an 0-4 with nothing else is hurting you in the runs category. Its the same as a pitcher going 9 innings and gets 1k. He hurts your K category. A stat neutral sample using my made up data would be 2 games where he scored 1 run. One factor going the favor of the support of Bogs point is that in a one game sample a hitter is limited in 4/5 how many deviations he can be below average where a pitcher can in theory be many deviations worse. If we compare a 5 game hitter sample (which is really the equivalent of a start) how does a 2/16 1R 1RBI stretch hurt compared to a the 4 Inn, 5ER start? both have the ability to hurt you greatly. That said thanks for the analysis in the thread.