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About Smallball

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  • Birthday 08/06/1989

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  1. Michael Kopech - P CHW

    I think he will get called up after this start. Getting blown up shows that he belongs up with the rest of their rotation.
  2. Caleb Smith 2018 Outlook

    Super pressed for time but I wanted to share something I found. Here is Smith's release point from early April of 2018. and here is the same graph from his last start on Saturday. Two things of note. 1. He threw more pitches in the second graph but there is a much tighter grouping 2. It appears he raised his arm slot consistently. It is hard to gauge the vertical release point but check this out: Here is his release point over the past few years in the majors: It looks to me that he has been searching for his release point. Looks like he went from an over the top to 3/4 arm slot. It may not be that drastic but there has been a big change here. That tells me what he is doing is real but could be susceptible to losing it.
  3. Caleb Smith 2018 Outlook

    I absolutely believe it’s his release point. It appears that he hides the ball really well. If you can disrupt a hitter from picking the ball out of your hand even a tiny amount it can throw hitters off. He has a very disruptive release point IMO.
  4. Caleb Smith 2018 Outlook

    We also shouldn’t discount the change of scenery. As Tao pointed out, the marlins front office (which includes former members from the Yankees) saw something in Smith. His situation is exactly why the rule 5 pick exist.
  5. Caleb Smith 2018 Outlook

    So here is where looking at his stat line doesn’t tell the whole story. He hasn’t had control issues the past three starts and that is the point Tao has been trying to make. His swing a miss stuff with control makes him one of the best starters in professional baseball. Yes he could implode but something has changed and it’s quite apparent the past few starts.
  6. Clayton Kershaw 2018 Outlook

    Exactly. Separating panicked posts from good discussion will be difficult in this thread. I think we we can all agree that Kershaw hasn’t exactly been Kershaw save for one start. So a little time off is good. If it was elbow related then I would agree the panic is warranted. However shoulder tendinitis is about best case scenario when it comes to injuries to a pitchers throwing arm.
  7. Jack Flaherty 2018 Outlook

    But you did, which spurned this entire response. Either way your missing my point. Sabermetrics are a great tool in evaluating the game of baseball. But because they are a tools, like all tools, they need to be used correctly. And I’ll take two seconds to address the “eye-based opinions” of knee jerk reactions vs stats. Do you ever notice that these new Saber stats are always changing. For other readers look at FIP and then with adjustments made it became XFIP. This is happening at a rate faster that most people understand. And it because it’s an evolving tool, it really should be used that way. On the the other hand, I can tell on a single pitch how far he misses the catchers glove with the eye test. A dot on a graph after the game doesn’t give you the entire story and that has been my point this entire time.
  8. Jack Flaherty 2018 Outlook

    Its exactly what I said the oversight was. You can’t use FIP, XFIP, etc with a 5 inning sample size. Yes fangraphs will show it to you but it literally is noise. (I’m a data analyst by trade so if you really want to discuss it I’d be happy to help)
  9. Jack Flaherty 2018 Outlook

    These are the posts that make me sad. No offense to you but this is a massive oversight by more and more people every year. The point I was trying to make is that you cannot read a box score and extrapolate sabermetrics for 5 innings. Yet people do it. I literally have more discussions and read more posts of people making assumptions from boxscorrs rather than watching actual baseball games. The answer is that the sweet spot is a balance between the two. But I would say if you had to pick one I’d rather judge a player by watching him that reading his stats. As as far as Flaherty goes, he was off compared to his first start. But he was hitting the glove where Molina wanted it a lot and just didn’t get the calls on the edge. It it was clear to me that he didn’t have a feel for the ball and I’d very much bank on the temps having something to do with it. And as as far as the Cardinals sending him down, who is more MLB ready in their system to start? He will be up until the ghost of Adam Wainwright comes back and there is a good chance that an opening will present itself in the meantime for the long run.
  10. Jack Flaherty 2018 Outlook

    Would you mind breaking down his actual pitching performance? Several of us watched the whole thing, so it would be great if you could breakdown the start.
  11. Walker Buehler 2018 Outlook

    I believe he has to be sent down per the “26th man” rule. There is is a way around it by claiming he has to stay but it would have to be offset by corresponding DL move. What is much more likely is that he is sent down first this Sunday morning if they do that then Saturday’s start doesn’t restart his 10 day minor league clock before he can pitch again in the majors. Thus he could be recalled in time for his next start. The Dodgers are masters of roster manipulation.
  12. Yu Darvish 2018 Outlook

    No offense but you cherry picked some numbers here. You can’t omit the 137 IP with Texas in 2017 of mediocre pitching if your real end goal is evaluating Darvish moving forward.
  13. Walker Buehler 2018 Outlook

    I think everyone should temper their expectations a little here. He's thrown over 80 pitches once in his profession career. Also has only ever made it passes 5 innings pitched (obviously due to pitch count) I think he should be good, but I don't believe they will take the gloves off here. I predict 4IP, 1ER, 1BB, 3k
  14. GAMEDAY Thread 4/7/18

    Cutch literally put the entire SF team on his shoulders this game. Pretty cool to see.
  15. Kenta Maeda 2017 Outlook

    Thanks @pittsports87 for looking a little deeper there. I have to say his line is ugly but I very much like watching him pitch. He gets some strange movement on some of his pitches. I'm excited to see if this develops into an out pitch for lefties as that will help him take the next step.