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ReyesMurphyWright last won the day on May 30 2018

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  1. Juan Soto 2018 Outlook

    It amazes me that some people still don't understand what an anomaly Juan Soto is. OTHER THAN VLAD JR, pretty much no one IN THE HISTORY OF BASEBALL was putting up numbers like Juan Soto was doing in the minors at such a young age. Normally, what qualifies as an exciting prospect is a 21-year-old like Kyle Tucker who puts up a .900 OPS in the minors. JUAN SOTO HAD A 1.300 OPS IN THE MINORS AT AGE 19. THIS IS NOT NORMAL. So, no - other kids simply can't do what Soto is doing now.
  2. Juan Soto 2018 Outlook

    Soto's secret sauce isn't really so secret. The dude just doesn't swing at bad pitches. Generally speaking, this is what you would expect from an extremely high-quality veteran hitter. But Soto, he just had a cup of coffee in the minors and he already learned to do this. It just came naturally for him, for whatever reason is incredibly rare. He constantly finds himself in hitter's counts. The other thing is that he has extremely quick bat speed to go along with level swing that keeps the bat in the strikezone for a while which helps him in making contact. Oh, and he hits the balls to all fields, so the defense has to play him honestly. There's simply no flaw with his approach at the plate. He's having the greatest offensive season in baseball history for a teenager for a reason.
  3. Hyun-Jin Ryu 2018 Outlook

    The problem is that the Dodgers already have 6 guys for their rotation and Ryu isn't even back yet. Kershaw Stripling Maeda Buehler Wood Hill Ryu I've been holding him on my DL in a deep league, but recently I've had some injuries pile up and now I'm wondering if it's time to drop.
  4. Max Muncy 2018 Outlook

    Does anyone know how the Puig injury should be expected to affect Muncy's role in the field? In standard ESPN leagues, he needs to play 2 more games at 2B in order to qualify for eligibility at that position. I for one could really use that.
  5. 2018 "Deep" Sleepers

    Anyone know anything about Joel Payamps? He's a 24-year-old in AA. Probably nothing to get too excited over but I want to make sure. Have never heard of him until I saw that he pitched 5.2 IP, 0 R, 2 H, 0 BB, 15 K in last night's game. He was in the bullpen until recently. But since he moved to the starting rotation this season he's put up these numbers in 6 starts: 33.2 IP, 5 ER, 16 H, 3 BB, 45 K The numbers look even better over just his last 4 starts: 23.2 IP, 3 ER, 12 H, 3 BB, 37 K Dayum.
  6. Juan Soto 2018 Outlook

    Highest OPS+ by a teenager Minimum 150 plate appearances, since 1905 1. 165 -- Juan Soto, 2018 Nationals 2. 139 -- Mel Ott, 1928 Giants 3. 137 -- Tony Conigliaro, 1964 Red Sox 4. 132 -- Ty Cobb, 1906 Tigers 5. 130 -- Jimmie Foxx, 1927 Athletics 6. 118 -- Bryce Harper, 2012 Nationals 7. 117 -- Mickey Mantle, 1951 Yankees
  7. Juan Soto 2018 Outlook

    In 31 career games started, Soto has 22 strikeouts and 20 walks.
  8. Juan Soto 2018 Outlook

    I agree with what you said except for the pitches "being too close to take." When you have less than 2 strikes, hitters absolutely should be taking borderline pitches. With two strikes you need to be in defensive mode, but with less than two strikes a hitter should wait for a pitch they have a good chance to hit. The fact that Juan Soto is willing to take borderline pitches with less than two strikes means he will continue to work himself into favorable hitter's counts and give himself a better chance to see pitches that are more to his liking. The great thing is that Soto is by no means too passive at the plate - if a pitcher gives him something in the middle of the strikezone, he's swinging. He's not one to let a juicy first pitch strike right down the middle just pass him by. This is the ideal approach at the plate.
  9. Juan Soto 2018 Outlook

    For the guys who are preaching to sell high - what exactly is an acceptable price for you guys to sell Soto in a redraft league? If someone offers me Stanton or Springer for Soto in a redraft league - then sure, I'd take that right now. But if they're offering me Bellinger or Upton for Soto in a redraft league - I'm passing. In a keeper league, it's another ballgame entirely - Soto is a super elite asset.
  10. Juan Soto 2018 Outlook

    First of all - Soto projects as a very high BABIP hitter. He hits the ball very hard to all fields. Second of all - the 29% FB rate is coming in a small sample. And just as Soto's .364 BABIP will probably go slightly down, the FB rate will probably go slightly up. When you look at the BABIP, keep in mind that Soto is currently hitting .326/.426/.598 - so he has a long way to fall before he would not be considered a great hitter. For all we know, his BABIP could settle in at something like .350 (which would be very high but it's certainly in the realm of possibility) and he doesn't even have that much to fall. The sample size is too small at this point to read too much into any one particular number. But given how overwhelmingly successful he's been overall both in the minors and the majors, it's not too soon to say that Soto is probably going to be an extremely excellent hitter for a long time to come.
  11. Juan Soto 2018 Outlook

    Read the few posts above this one, dude. Soto and Vlad were BOTH doing unprecedented things in the minors this year. But no, Vlad's numbers were not actually better than Soto's.
  12. Juan Soto 2018 Outlook

    Soto was also crushing A+ (and eventually crushing AA too in an extremely brief stop there). What Soto was doing in A+ was just as impressive as what Vlad has done in AA. Soto had a 244 wRC+ in A+ (along with a 245 wRC+ in A) compared to the 204 wRC+ that Vlad Jr. has in AA right now. That's why prior to getting called up, statistical models like STEAMER had similar projections for Soto and Vlad as call-ups for this year.
  13. Juan Soto 2018 Outlook

    Soto and Vlad were both doing unprecedented things in the minors this year. But prior to Soto getting called up, Vlad was getting a hundred times more attention for it.
  14. Juan Soto 2018 Outlook

    On the Juan hand, no one knew he would be this good in the majors THIS quickly. But on the other hand, a few of us in here (ahem) were absolutely blowing up the Juan Soto MILB thread for a reason. No one had EVER put up numbers like that in the minors at the age of 19 before. And now... he's putting up numbers like no 19-year-old in the history of the major leagues has put before. Those things just might be related, when you really think about it.
  15. Juan Soto 2018 Outlook

    With his natural hitting ability, power, patience at the plate, and unbelievable results at the age of 19, I think saying that he is going to having a .300 batting average and a .500 slugging % in his *career year* is a huge undersell. Hell, the projection systems think he's going to continue to hit around .300 and slug .500 as a 19-year-old rookie .