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Everything posted by AnonymousRob

  1. Bryce Harper 2019 Outlook

    He hit 249 with a 393 OBP in 2018. The shift killed his average, but he still had 34 homers and threw in 13 stolen bases to go with his 103 runs and 100 rbi. But it took nearly 700 plate appearances to do it. There's growing momentum among owners and Manfred to limit a team's ability to shift. If that passes, that's probably going to give a big boost to Bryce, wherever it is he signs. Now as to where he's going to sign. He's doesn't turn 27 until next October. The Nationals appear resigned to losing him. So...who gets him? His agent is Scott Boras, so you know it's going to cost some team a LOT of money and a lot of years. The Phillies have been heavily speculated since last year, and with their recent deals they appear to have a spot in the outfield. The Cardinals are reportedly interested even with their trade for Goldschmidt, but only if they can get him for less than 10 years. The Dodgers are seemingly interested. They don't have any space in their outfield, but they'd surely trade away guys. Plus it's relatively close to his home in Vegas. Kris Bryant is one of his good friends and there's talk the Cubs might get him. Whoever gets him can cause a change in projections, but right now steamer projects him to basically mirror what he did this past season, with a slight bump to his batting average. As great as he is, the hype has often pushed his draft spot a bit higher than his production warrants. What happens in 2019? Will next season finally be his "monster" season? Will he again miss lots of time with injuries?
  2. Walker Buehler 2019 Outlook

    Is this guy moving into the Kluber/Scherzer tier this year, or will his lack of innings upside and relative inexperience keep him from breaking through? Last year he pitched 153 innings in the majors and minors. He pitched to a 2.62 era (3.31 SIERRA). Steamer projects him to pitch 163 innings this year with a 3.29 era.
  3. Shohei Ohtani 2019 Outlook

    He's going to be recovering from TJ, so we're not going to get any pitching stats from him. We are, however, going to get an awesome hitter. Last year he hit 285 with a 361 obp. In only 377 plate appearances, he gave us 22 homers and 10 stolen bases. What to expect in 2019? It's fair to question the playing time. He should play everyday based on his stats. They've got Calhoun, Trout, and Upton in the outfield (note to future self, googling 'Angels outfield' brings up movie listings and not their depth charts). Ohtani might get some playing time there, but those three should play virtually every game. DH? It would make a lot of sense to leave Ohtani at DH full time, but they've got Pujols. Albert started 70 games at 1st last year - his highest total since 2015. He's going to clog the DH spot a lot. They also signed Justin Bour. What might make the most sense is to simply release Pujols. But that's not going to happen. Do the Angels hurt their playoff chances by giving Ohtani fewer at bats than his production warrants? Do they get creative to keep Ohtani in the lineup? What will 2019's production even be? Steamer is projecting him to get 569 PA's. I'm not sure where those will come from, but he's being projected to put up 30 homers, 12 steals, and a 273 average. If he gets the playing time, he should be a stud hitter, even if he just has DH eligibility. What do you expect from him this year, both in playing time and production?
  4. 2019 Sleepers

    Good points. I'm only in obp leagues so I love a guy like Winker. I think the playing time is a slight question though. In shallow benches I think there are enough questions about his playing time to hesitate before drafting him. Tbf I'm sure we'll get clarity as the season approaches, but right now I'm a bit apprehensive.
  5. 2019 Sleepers

    Question to the Winker fans: How much playing time does he get?
  6. Yusei Kikuchi - P Japan

    I wonder if Ohtani's success might cause him to see a big jump in ADP, or if he'll be another under the radar overseas target like Mikolas, Maeda, etc. He's definitely someone I'm planning to target.
  7. Yu Darvish 2019 Outlook

    Haha just giving you a hard time I know what you meant. I want to see how he looks in ST but I'm definitely interested in Darvish. When he's on he's a great source of strikeouts.
  8. Yu Darvish 2019 Outlook

    Well that's not promising.
  9. 2018-19 Off-Season and Hot Stove Thread

    Reported as a 2 year deal for 14-15 million. Looks like they were smart to non tender him at 1 year for 10 or so million.
  10. Yasiel Puig 2019 Outlook

    This is great for his fantasy value. The Reds might surprise this year, but Puig should be getting 20/10 as a floor if he plays all year.
  11. 2018-19 Off-Season and Hot Stove Thread

    He was on the cover of SI as a teenager. I suspect he's used to being under a microscope and having extremely heavy expectations placed on his shoulders.
  12. 2018-19 Off-Season and Hot Stove Thread

    Oakland decides every game is going to be a bullpen game this year as they sign Soria. 2 years for about 15.5 million. The guy was dominant last year and had arguably his career best performance last season. Seems like a good deal for the green and gold.
  13. 2018-19 Off-Season and Hot Stove Thread

    After the immediate panic attack, it seems most people posting around here realize he's going to be mostly - if not entirely - playing at first base. I think everyone with even a passing interest in Hampson had to have a moment where their hearts dropped. Colorado does have a history of these kinds of stunts.
  14. 2018-19 Off-Season and Hot Stove Thread

    Oh yeah, they're all about saving their money and being smart with their budget until they sign one of those two. That's why they passed on McCutchen?
  15. Adalberto Mondesi 2019 Outlook

    Looks like he'll be seeing a ton of off-speed and breaking balls next season.
  16. 2018-19 Off-Season and Hot Stove Thread

    Good lord he's going to be Ted Williams in Colorado. Eh, this might not be awful if they put him at first. Though they've still got the previous Washington middle infielder to deal with...
  17. 2018-19 Off-Season and Hot Stove Thread

    Cahill is a much better signing than Harvey, imo.
  18. Ryan O'Hearn 2019 Outlook

    He walked at nearly a 12% clip last year in the majors. He had a double digit walk rate throughout most of his minor league career. Steamer is projecting him to have a 9.4% walk rate. They're making similar projections for his strikeout rate (projecting higher than he showed last year and throughout his most recent minor league years). There's a lot of interesting data in his profile but it's hard to tell how much of it is noise and sss. I'd like to see how he fares in spring training, but he's on my sleeper list right now.
  19. 2018-19 Off-Season and Hot Stove Thread

    There are terrible teams to play every single year, going back to the beginning of baseball. Last year was no exception, and I strongly suspect next year will bring us more of the same. They won 90 games last year. If you use Pythagorean models they 'should' have won anywhere from 88-97 games (depends which model you use). They were a legitimately good team last year. There's nothing remotely sad about that.
  20. 2018-19 Off-Season and Hot Stove Thread

    Just a reminder, but last offseason people were accusing Tampa, Pittsburgh, and Oakland of tanking and refusing to spend money. All three teams ended up being contenders, with Oakland being one of the best teams in baseball and making the playoffs. Just because a team dumps some money and shifts things around doesn't mean they're tanking. Sometimes teams are definitely tanking (we're all looking at you, Miami). Sometimes they're aiming for the future but still putting out a roster that can contend that season if things break right. lol at Drombowski grumbling about this. His team had a 2018 payroll of about 227 million. Pittsburgh, Oakland, and Tampa had a combined payroll of around 240 million. Let's look at this another way - David Price alone cost 30 million. The entire Oakland payroll last year was 80 million. Drew Pomeranz made more than anyone on Tampa last year. The larger teams have a level of flexibility other teams can only dream of. Heck, look at Boston fans when they grumble about how other teams don't spend money. They've lost all touch with the concept of a budget. A handful of teams are just playing with Monopoly money. Some teams have a lot of money but there's still a ceiling and when the well runs dry they need to figure out the fastest way back to contention. Like Seattle, who had the 10th highest payroll and still came up short despite vastly overachieving. Now their roster is older and they've got zero depth and an awful farm system. The remaining squads cannot possibly compete on the same level. And the smart ones don't try - they instead have to play a different game to become winners. This is the way baseball has structured the system. We shouldn't blame teams for being smart. TLDR lol at rich teams for setting up a system that encourages rich teams to succeed then pikachu face when non rich teams try to figure out another way to compete.
  21. 2018-19 Off-Season and Hot Stove Thread

    Angels sign Harvey. It's not clear how much he cost them, but this is a potentially good signing for a relatively small chunk of change. Eta 1 year, 11 million. Eh. Not awful, but not an obvious steal at this time.
  22. 2018-19 Off-Season and Hot Stove Thread

    I think your overall point is a good one, but these guys are going to keep getting massive paydays as long as they stay healthy. And there's insurance they can get that will cover that potential tragedy. I can see fringe guys wanting longer term deals even at a lower AAV, but the stars shouldn't really have any issue, imo.
  23. Bryce Harper 2019 Outlook

    Rumor going around is he really wants to join the Dodgers, but LA isn't willing to offer a really long contract. They might be able to work out a much higher salary for a short term contract. I think higher AAV for shorter years is how baseball should work. Bauer is planning on doing that once he's a FA. Maybe Harper can get that ball rolling.
  24. 2018-19 Off-Season and Hot Stove Thread

    Descalso to the Cubs. I guess Chicago found money in their budget for the guy after all.
  25. 2018-19 Off-Season and Hot Stove Thread

    Just what Houston needs - another hitting machine. Not an Astros fan but I'm a huge fan of Dr. Smooth. I'm not sure how I should feel about this.