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About lassetjus

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  • Birthday 04/30/1981

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  1. I think his final line is actually close to what he deserved. For the 2nd game in a row, K's were over 9 per 9IP. That's good. But he gave up a lot of line drives that were caught and he did not get many ground balls. As a result, his BABIP was .077. That is not sustainable. xFIP was 3.66 (since they use a league average HR rate). FIP was 7.93. He didn't get a lot of first strikes, therefore fell behind and a lot of times was bailed out by a hacktastic Baltimore team. He was a bit lucky to only give up 2 walks. He is definitely a quality MLB starter now, but he isn't as good as his current 1.66 ERA. (duh). I would expect him to settle into the high 3's ERA wise, which is actually what is current FIP is (3.77).
  2. He wears an elbow pad. He got hit on the wrist/hand. I'd imagine any kind of wrist/hand protection would be a hindrance to holding and swinging the bat properly.
  3. Beat writers are reporting that X rays were negative. By comparison, for what it is worth, Freddie Freeman's xrays were inconclusive so they sent him for ct scan and MRI. Hopefully the xrays being declared negative means it is definitely not broken.
  4. Yes but unless his exam included an MRI, it means absolutely nothing .
  5. Of course we waited for him to get over the knee injury, he homers, then possibly breaks his wrist. Fantastic.
  6. Excellent points. The BABIP is of concern with a below average line drive and also the batting average will be affected by the near 30% K. However, when balls are hit really hard, even low launch angle batted balls have higher likelihood to become hits. This is why Aaron Judge has a .380 BABIP. Also if he keeps hitting bombs, those hits don't factor into his BABIP. If he keeps mashing the ball, his batting average doesn't have to be a drag on your team. Maybe he can be a poor man's Judge or Bellinger.
  7. The problem with Shimpf is that he hits a lot of flyballs but not very hard. 24.4 % hard hit rate. Small sample, but Pinder is at 45.5% hard hit rate. And like I said earlier, his power is backed up by Statcast. His percent of 95 MPH batted balls, his percent of Barrels per BBE, all elite levels.
  8. It may be time to start paying attention to this guy. 4 HR in his last 6 starts and it is real power as he is near the top of every important statcast metric. Only issue is playing time. But if he keeps mashing maybe he can stop splitting time with Rosales. Here is a fangraphs post on him from yesterday if you want to be sold on this guy.
  9. How about the fact that he was a reliever that was not stretched out for more than 70 pitches? Even 70 pitches was stretching it. Starters take all of spring training to get to 100 pitches and you expect Peacock the reliever to get to 100 pitches in his first start?
  10. I calculated his expected HR per flyball rate (xHR/FB%) a few days ago based on a good correlated formula developed by Fangraphs that uses pull and opposite field rates and line drive and flyball exit velocity and percent of barrels... and I got about 35%. So I would expect his 45% to regress however 35% is still very good. The league leader last season was at 28%. Sure enough he hit 2 flyballs tonight that were not homeruns so they would bring down his rate.
  11. Not quite correct but you did call the likelihood for a vulture win today with Peacock starting. Nice job!
  12. Exactly... only 18 of the 30 teams are in action tonight. Annoying when your guy gets the day off when you don't even have any replacements since they are all off.
  13. There was an article on Fangraphs when he signed his new contract that he was one of the very few players to post a triple digit WRC+ with his kind of atrocious plate discipline. So 2016 was very odd and possibly an anomaly. However as stated in the previous article I posted, it does seem like he has changed his approach slightly this year hitting a bit more flyballs. So maybe he is trying to really uppercut the ball (more than last year) and that is causing more popups and weak contact. If he really wanted to improve this season, he probably should have kept his same swing plane from last season and worked on his plate discipline. Maybe this big time slump is the kick in the butt that he needs to get him to work on his plate discipline.
  14. Dave Cameron over at Fangraphs just posted a new article today that contains many of the points I listed above, in a more comprehensive and better way.
  15. I guess you didn't see that he has a 23.8 % popup rate compared to 8.2% last season. That is a typical symptom of someone improperly trying to join the "flyball revolution". For more on this, read this: