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About Tryptamine

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  1. Almost a month now since he's hit a HR, not sure how you manage that in Colorado Springs. Mean while Brett Phillips is making him look bad.
  2. Supposedly a plus defender in the COF and becoming passable at CF, Hays has done nothing but rake since being drafted in the 3rd round last year. After putting up a .336/.386/.514 in shortseason A ball last year, he skipped full season A ball and went directly to A+ where he's now putting up a .318/.354/.559 with 9HR to date. He also hit Fangraph's fringe 5 this week as well as being on BA's hot list, so if he's not gone already this is your last chance to pick him up.
  3. Time to make Austin Hays his own thread, another bomb last night and he's up to 9.
  4. No chance of sticking at SS as he has a well below average arm, but 2B is something we can all hope on. Regardless, the way he's hitting that bat will play anywhere
  5. So glad I kept him through the bad times, because when he's healthy and everything is right the kid just absolutely rakes.
  6. Here we are 24 hours later and Austin Hays just finished his night going 3/4 with 3HR. He started the year #7 in BAs Oriole's top 10 and at this point he might be #1 and a top 100 guy come the midseason publications.
  7. The only one I'd consider is Lackey for Severino. Wood and Erod are pitching with great results and Samardzija's peripherals have been fantastic, they just haven't shown up in the ERA yet.
  8. I like Stroman,Quintana and Carlos Martinez for guys in that range too. My most highly recommended buy low right now is Samardzija though. Crazy peripherals and his numbers across the board other than ERA says he has been a true ace this year, but his 4.57ERA makes owners scared.
  9. This is going to be a bit long. Before we can even talk about whether his current babip is high or low we need to see if he has had any change in quality of contact and batted ball type from the last two years to this year. One sizable difference is that his LD% is way down, roughly 7%. Line drives are the balls most likely to be hits and therefore carry the highest babip. GB% is roughly the same, 1% difference is just statistical noise.FB% is up nearly 8%, fly balls are the least likely to end up as hits and carry the lowest babip. His HR/FB% is right in line with what he's done the last couple years so nothing noticeably different there. Now to look at quality of contact. Santana is giving up roughly 5% lower HARD% and giving up about 5% more SOFT% which means that overall guys aren't putting as much good contact in play off him. So what we know is that He's giving up fewer LDs, more FB and inducing weaker contact than he has in past years. All of this should lead to a lower babip than normal for him; the last two years he's carried a .285babip so if he was carrying something in the .230 or .240s we could probably say that it was legit because of the weaker contact he's inducing, but .136 is just unheard of. For comparison sake the lowest babip in 2016 was Marco Estrada at .234, again we're miles away from Ervin's unprecedented .136babip. Another statistical outlier for Ervin is his 91.5LOB% or strand rate. Most pitchers will carry a strand rate in the 70-75% area on average with some outliers like Greinke who carries it higher towards 80%. Last year the highest strand rate in the majors for starters with enough innings to qualify was Jon Lester at 84.9% nearly 7% short of current Ervin. Overall it's odd, because when you look at Ervin's K/9, which is down, and BB/9, which is up , along with his SIERA, this is perhaps the worst year of Ervin's career according to his peripherals. His velocity is basically the same, his pitch usage is basically the same too and there doesn't appear to be a new pitch. Sorry to say it guys but this all comes down to is that Ervin has been crazy lucky against the probability gods. Sure he's inducing weaker contact so he should be a bit improved from last year, but nowhere near this much and there's no velocity or pitch or pitch usage that can explain any of it.
  10. Shouldn't they be trying to build this guy's trade value instead of sabotaging it? Not to mention Cobb himself has to worry about what he'll fetch on the market next year.
  11. This. Especially after tonight I'll keep trying to sell, but for whatever reason he just doesn't draw interest. I was dangling Lackey and Ervin and the vast majority wanted Lackey. We're up to over 170IP of 2.30ERA baseball since July 1st 2016. I'm not sure what else he can possibly do.
  12. This is the third time he's had a QS at the end of six then gets pushed out there in the 7th and loses it. It's absolutely killing me, can't wait until he's traded and signed to a proper club.
  13. The Orioles have a trio of OFers that all interest me. 22 year old Cedric Mullins skipped A+ entirely before jumping to AA and destroying it prior to a leg injury which he should be due back from at any time. Austin Hays mashed last year in short season A ball and after skipping A ball entirely, he's continuing to mash in A+. Lastly is Jake Ring, who is obviously too old for his level, but he's due for a promotion and if he keeps mashing at A+ he'll start getting a lot more publicity. I don't have much faith in Baltimore pitching prospects, but they're starting to put together a nice bunch of hitting prospects, Chance Sisco and Ryan Mountcastle included.
  14. I've been watching him closely too, I just never know how excited to get about guys in Reading.
  15. Looks like Rotoworld has jumped onto the bandwagon which is starting to get pretty full following Baseball America ranking him #57 overall on their updated list. If SD is seriously thinking of keeping him at SS, his stock shoots up a whole lot.