wily mo

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wily mo last won the day on May 11 2017

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  1. Kurt Suzuki 2018 Outlook

    can you please drop him again then. you're clearly ruining it for the rest of us
  2. Kurt Suzuki 2018 Outlook

    eh, the flowers/suzuki timeshare system worked really well for them last year, hard to blame them for sticking with the plan. it's definitely true that the return of flowers is going to cause suzuki's playing time to take a hit compared to his borderline-everyday status in april. that also shrinks the sample size of course, to where three quiet games are a weeklong slump. you just have to hope that the good hitter is still there and that's enough to make him a better option than other freely available catchers.
  3. Jordan Lyles 2018 Outlook

    i was listening to that rockies start on the radio while i was working and by about the fourth inning i whipped out my phone and added him. haven't seen anything to change my mind of course i'm in a deep enough league where nearly every SP is owned, so you have to hop in early if you're going to hop at all. but still here's the requisite fangraphs frontpage article https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/jordan-lyles-found-something-hes-never-had/ according to the chart in there, only mccullers jr throws a harder curveball than lyles among starters this year, and lyles' has more downward break on the other hand, as the first commenter notes, the rockies lineup has actually been pretty bad lately. they're the same guys who just got blown up by freddy peralta in his big league debut two days before, and then the lyles one was on the road in petco on top of that still, though. plenty of bad lineups out there and they don't make every pitcher look like this
  4. Kurt Suzuki 2018 Outlook

    end of the line is always possible with a guy like this but try not to forget that all hitters, and especially all catchers, have dead periods from time to time. you have to try not to overreact to them. doesn't mean dropping suzuki can't be the right play for your situation, but remember that he'd actually been pretty good for a pretty long time before this last week, two weeks
  5. Alen Hanson 2018 Outlook

    this is what i've been thinking - panik's not losing his job, and hanson's 2B defense doesn't sound that great anyway, but it's not like the giants OF should be impossible to break into. cutch is out there, and pence is still floating around. sounds like mac williamson will be back soon and he'll probably have a spot. but if hanson's CF defense is passable, it's not that hard to imagine him bumping austin jackson when panik's back, if hanson manages to establish himself as a hitter between now and then. giants have been trying to find a real CF for a while now; they've got duggar coming up, but i'm sure if hanson showed he could do the job they wouldn't kick him off the team. duggar's young and was off to a bit of a slow start in the minors anyway, although i think he's come on some lately.
  6. 2018 "Deep" Sleepers

    i was kidding around on the lazaro alonso thread about how thomas jones had a 150% HR/FB ratio, but jones is 2/2 with another homer and a walk tonight... that's four homers in three games. not sure why he wasn't playing before this, but, he's getting kinda interesting already from what i've googled up jones is one of those guys who's a big athlete (D1 football recruit as a saftey) but a little raw at baseball. for example, he hit .181 with two homers in almost 300 PA last year in short-season. but he already has four homers in three games this year in low-A, soooo maybe he's figured something out he already got a rotoworld frontpage blurb this morning, which annoyed me, i don't want him getting pub yet. but there it is (alonso is a 23-year-old cuban, see his thread for more about him)
  7. Lazaro Alonso 1B Marlins

    his teammate thomas jones actually has him beat, though jones has played 2 games and has 3 homers https://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=sa917968&position=OF currently running a HR/FB of 150% (don't ask me, i don't know. but that's what it says)
  8. Lazaro Alonso 1B Marlins

    that 100% HR/FB rate is probably going to come down; i'm intrigued nonetheless
  9. 2018 "Deep" Sleepers

    yeah i plan to do this. including, like you say, a section on guys that have graudated from "speculative pickup that i'm probably gonna drop again the next time i see something shiny" to "clutch this prospect to my heart forever" status some of this week's notes: i forgot to mention in last week's post that i also picked up: * brett nicholas, C/1B SDP (AAA). old as heck but i've liked him for years as a hitter, if he ever gets a shot to play. but it's not encouraging though that hedges went on the DL and the padres called up raffy lopez instead of nicholas. probably just a 40-man roster based decision but still. but i'm holding nicholas for now anyway, just because he's a catcher and his slugging percentage is over .700 this week's add/drops: less of them. feel like my roster is getting really tight - there's a lot of guys out there i want but very few i want to drop and half of what i did do this week was relief pitchers, which is probably less relevant to this thread. picked up justin anderson, who might be the angels' closer already? maybe? they're probably talking about him over on the closer thread, i haven't looked yet. i grabbed him like 3 days ago when i saw that he throws 98 and had 2 holds already i also picked up ariel hernandez, who i'm just permanently a sucker for, after i saw that he's not walking many guys so far this year. also he got traded to the dodgers and i'm a dodger fan the only non-reliever i grabbed this week was: * jazz (jasrado) chisholm, SS ARI low-A - 20 years old, hitting a lot. was on the DL for a minute so he's not showing up on some of the qualified leaderboards for A-ball hitters, but when he does pop in he'll be near the top, and he's a shortstop guys i've dropped: * gilbert lara - not really hitting a lot * tony santillan - like jose suarez, still like him a lot but there are so many pitchers * rosell herrera - might regret this one but the fact that the reds have called him up to the majors but then aren't giving him much playing time seems like a bad sign as far as how they probably view him as a future utility guy / bench player rather than a real prospect. i still think they might be wrong and he might be pretty good if he gets a real shot, but who knows if or when he will, so there are probably better bets with my limited slots * picked up duane underwood jr after another good start and then dropped him after another bad one, just like i always do guys who are more or less locked in on my roster at this point, to where i'd hold them even through a month-long cold streak if they were to have one: * cavan biggio * calvin mitchell * josh james * tyler stephenson seby zavala is almost there but his K rate is still 30% which is a little disturbing. i like buddy reed a heck of a lot but i still have to admit if he stopped hitting for an extended period i'd probably start to doubt whether his adjustments really have staying power jose adolis garcia has been slumping so that's not great that's the news
  10. Jose Martinez 2018 Outlook

    based on a couple quotes from a week or two ago, i suspect he's kinda banged up physically right now, and that could have something to do with the slow period he had runners crash into him at first base twice over the course of like three days a bit ago. he got pulled from one of those games with a bruised wrist, and when asked about it after the game, he said something like "it's no big deal, just another part of my body that hurts" i'm sticking with him. i'm avoiding using him when i can until he perks up again but there's no way i'd drop him anywhere
  11. 2018 "Deep" Sleepers

    haha, i clicked on this thinking you were still talking about biggio, but damn, now i'm in love with quiroz too damn you brock. i don't have enough minor league slots for this
  12. 2018 "Deep" Sleepers

    get calvin mitchell while you still can he's up to the fourth-best wRC+ in low-A regardless of age, as a 19-year-old #1 is juan soto, who's got everybody talking and was already promoted. #2 is juan yepez, who's very interesting in his own right, although he's a 1B with a .527 babip and showing less power than mitchell. #3 is some 23-year-old. then mitchell
  13. Cavan Biggio -- INF Toronto

    kingery gets really good speed grades; i don't think cavan is going to be a basestealer. up until this year he was seen as kind of a decent bat and eye, not a lot of speed, not a lot of power, boring 2B/utility type prospect. but putting it mildly, he's really added power so far this year - as that writeup notes, he seems to be going full hashtag flyball revolution. his ISOs have gone from .084 in short season after he was drafted, to .130 last year in high A, to .351 so far this year. not bad. and his walk and K rates are also trending positively at the same time. so kingery's always going to be more of an athlete and basestealer, i think. biggio's not really the same type of player. more of a pure bat type 2B. but if he keeps hitting like this, he can be really good anyway. something in the vein of your neil walkers, jed lowries, cross your fingers for a daniel murphy, that sort of thing
  14. 2018 "Deep" Sleepers

    yeah, santillan has been sitting at the top of my add pile for like two weeks now, but i just can't quite make room for an A-ball pitcher yet. but he looks really good. surprised no one else in my league has grabbed him yet. in true keep-forever leagues where upside matters way more than proximity he's a great pickup some other pitchers in this category, i want but can't quite shoehorn in yet - taylor widener ARI AA (from the yankees in the drury trade, striking out everyone so far) - ryan borucki TOR AAA (actually had him but dropped him - changeup artist in the marco estrada vein, so not ace upside but close) jorge alcala HOU A+ (102 mph fastball but not much else right now; #2 on last week's BA hot sheet; someone else in my league grabbed him this morning) jose suarez again now manny banuelos LAD AAA (remember him? 27 years old now but look at his early AAA numbers) reggie lawson SD A+
  15. 2018 "Deep" Sleepers

    this week's pickups: enyel de los santos SP PHI AAA (got from the padres for galvis, here's a scouting report: https://www.patreon.com/posts/milb-quick-day-18352526 ) cavan biggio 2B TOR AA (biggio's kid, teammates with vlad and dante's kids in tor AA, hitting more than any of them so far. swing change? not sure yet) calvin mitchell OF PIT A (top high school bat who had a so-so senior year and dropped to second round, raking so far) buddy reed OF SD A+ (huge athlete, speed, some power, couldn't hit. late to baseball, worked to refine hitting this winter. college aged so could move fast if it clicks) hudson potts 3B SD A+ (another prep star, reed's teammate, only 19, hitting. slow few days since i picked him up but age/level gives leeway) reds just called up rosell herrera so that flyer's working better than expected so far to make room for these guys i dropped kohl stewart and underwood (bad starts this week, out you go), haase (didn't really want to but he's not hitting that much so far), and jose suarez (i still like him a lot, i just like enyel DLS more) i do a lot of churn