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About kittenmittons

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  1. June Closer Thread 2017

    Right up until he isn't. When he isn't, I want to have Rosenthal already on my roster.
  2. May Closer Thread 2017

    I thought they traded a lot last year? Didn't they trade damaged goods to somebody and get in trouble?
  3. May Closer Thread 2017

    You just "punt" spending draft resources on closers and load up on better players elsewhere. Then you fill the RP roles in April and May. CSB: This year I got Kintzler as my only closer for 1 or 2 dollars in the draft. Now my RP slots have Kintzler, Knebel, Bush with Glover and Wilson in P slots. I spent 2/3 of my FAAB auction budget already making roster moves though... I also spent roster space on speculative closers. Gotta be speculative and early on the pickups, and pay close attention to bad outings... Those are the downsides. The upside is leaving your auction with 5 first round picks if it were a snake draft...
  4. Corey Dickerson 2017 Outlook

    Nice to see he is playing nearly every day... It's about time they figured that out.
  5. May Closer Thread 2017

    Siegrist gave up the runs to lose the game for St. Louis. Rosenthal is still the clear number 2 and is one of those guys who immediately becomes a top 10 closer because of the K rate. Oh has been shaky enough that I'd rather he just lose the closer role so I can put Rosey in and drop Oh. Get the better K rate and free up the roster space...
  6. May Closer Thread 2017

    I think it's pretty normal that his career is up and down. It seems like almost all non elite relievers are that way. Once you think they are good, they struggle. Once you think they are bad, they bounce back. It's one reason closers turn over so often.
  7. Scott White is proudly proclaim that he is ruled by loss aversion. Chris seems to identify this as a cognitive bias by saying it might be a natural human thing that there is probably a name for. Yes, Chris, it is loss aversion. Good on you for actually sort of recognizing that as a cognitive bias that commonly allows humans to fool themselves. Scott White is blindly ruled by cognitive biases that he is unaware of, probably why his analysis is so inconsistent... Good stuff.
  8. May Closer Thread 2017

    I didn't say blow a save I said blow it, as in the baseball game.
  9. May Closer Thread 2017

    Is Oh unavailable? Or can he blow this one too.
  10. May Closer Thread 2017

    ESPN blurb says it's precautionary for Rosenthal, but any arm symptoms for a pitcher are always a concern.
  11. May Closer Thread 2017

    He did walk 2 batters, not sure how he looked since I didn't see the game.
  12. May Closer Thread 2017

    Brewers broadcast team are saying that Knebel is the new closer.
  13. May Closer Thread 2017

    Would it only be away games because if you blow it at home there is the bottom of the 9th where the offense can save you? You're right - I just don't buy it - or I guess I should say I am skeptical until I see some numbers backing it. It's really hard to do that though (on either side of this) because the sample sizes are usually too small, especially if a guy is failing on those few 9th inning chances he gets. With relievers a string of bad luck or a bad defensive play can really ruin their stats when it's not really their fault. Are we just fooled by randomness, or is the guy really rattled by what inning it is? I appreciate the discussion. Also, "Fooled by Randomness" is an awesome book with fantasy baseball implications that I would recommend anyone reading. It's pretty awesome. Nassim Nicholas Taleb.
  14. May Closer Thread 2017

    My point is that the typical path to the closer role involves so many "do or die" situations in statistically higher leverage situations than the 9th inning closer role is typically presented with that in order to even get the closer role in the first place the reliever has to be able to handle high pressure. By the time you get the 9th inning role you've survived enough 8th inning "do or die" situations that the real pressure isn't any different (what we don't know is the perceived pressure). Maybe some guys psyche themselves out of the role and imagine higher pressure that doesn't really exist, but if there isn't a clear statistical backing for this it shouldn't be mentioned as often as it is.
  15. May Closer Thread 2017

    To the bolded - no, there is not. That's the point. Facing Harper/Zimmerman/Murphy in the 8th inning with a 1 run lead in Philadelphia is orders of magnitude more difficult than facing Renfroe/Aybar/Pitcher slot in the 9th inning with a 3 run lead in San Diego. A Closer entering the game with a 3 run lead has over a 97% chance of converting the save. A loss is also on your shoulders if you blow it in the 8th - doesn't matter. Also, how are you sure that's what's going on in Philedelphia? Neris sucked in 2015. It's probably just a fluctuation.