FreakFries

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  1. Apologies, I can't resist venting in. My 25 cents on the randomized draft position thing which I HATE. That said, to each their own and all due respect. I am in a league and we do not find out our draft positions until the start of the draft. I HATE this. I think it is extremely annoying as I like to map out my strategy based on targeted players and draft position makes a HUGE difference in knowing when and if to take players. So that is annoying and frustrating. Also, I don't care what the empirical data is, I would argue that not knowing your position until the day of or anything less than two weeks before the draft is nothing more than an unnecessary pain in the a** and does nothing but add to the time it takes to prepare. To me that is not a "serious players" feature that is "I have more time than other people in the league" feature. For a non-professional gamer, I consider myself a fairly serious player in that I am looking at data and trying to improve my strategies year-round. When it comes to sitting down, crunching numbers and coming up with my projections and rankings, I like to take deep dives and usually about 2 -4 days to do so. That is more than enough, and many would argue too much, time to spend on a game and I don't think you will find many people who would say that is not taking "fantasy football" seriously. Adding the extra variable of having to prepare several different draft strategies because I don't know where I will be drafting from does nothing to change my rankings or evaluations of football players which is what this game is about. It just means I have to waste time looking at several different draft strategies that I will not use. That is not just a chore, it is, I think, stupid because unlike all the other time I put into this game, I won't be making use of 91% of the work I do. That is a huge waste of time. It is not "more serious" it is just more time consuming in an already time consuming game. Most of the work you do looking at different positions goes straight out the window once you know your draft positions. Fun! It certainly is not necessary. I utterly fail to see the appeal of adding another time requirement that offers and instantaneous negation of 90% of your effort. Rant over and no disrespect intended. RE: Gurly, Hopkins and AR-15 I don't really like any of these guys but Gurly is at least an RB guaranteed to get a lot of touches in a year with very little safety or clarity at RB after the first round and a half. As disappointing as he was last year, he still put up 154 points in standard good for an RB20 finish. There should be talent there and the new coaching staff could help to give him a little hope for upside. I think he'd be a great round 5 pick in standard but he obviously will not go there. For some reason. Like Gurly, I do not understand the high ADPs of Hopkins and AR-15. Look no further than Larry Hall-Of-Famer Fitzgerald's 3 years before Carson Palmer arrived to see what kind of impact lousy QB play can have on even the best WRs. No way would I take a chance on those guys before round 5 or 6. They obviously will not last that long. Also, I saw Bortles plenty last year and he was ABOMINABLE. Watching Joe Thiesman's leg injury was almost less painful to watch. He looked like he was playing blindfolded. Definitely not an underachiever, just a bad QB. Throw in the fact that AR-15 was shut down by top corners every time and faces more of them this year and no thank you for me. As for draft strategies (why I originally came in here) I am finding that my entire strategy (in standard) is revolving around my RB2. I feel like if that piece can be solved, a lot of other positions fall in to place. Does anyone have any thoughts on their favorite RB2 targets? I am currently liking M Gillislee, E Lacey and am exploring T Montgomery. Everyone seems to think Jamaal Williams is going to be the guy but his scouting report isn't great and T Mont was pretty good last year.
  2. Interesting. Do you have a link or summary of Waldman's breakdown? The scouting report and injury history looked pretty ugly. Would appreciate hearing some positives. Thanks
  3. Good points about Ty guys. I've been avoiding him because of Williams and the fact that I think AR will hog the TD opportunities. Reading the above made me check out Jamaal Williams a little more and it actually looks to me like he is not the threat to T Monte that people have been buzzing about. The NFL scouting report on his running ability is less than enthusiastic; http://www.nfl.com/draft/2017/profiles/jamaal-williams?id=2558204 They peg him as a "backup" with a scout commenting to the effect "He hasn't played special teams but he'd better learn." Not good. I also didn't realize that he has had so many injuries including to his ankle. I checked the RWorld depth chart and he is listed as the #2 RB *but* he is not even on the goal-line back depth chart at all! T Monte is starting to look like a good bargain! All that said, I'd still take MG over T Monte. There is just too much potential for TDs. Suppose he scores 8 less TDs than Blount. That's still 10. I don't see TMonte doing that. Also, I always seem to put more weight on Strength Of Schedule than most because as soon as the season starts, all the weekly ranking are heavily influences by match ups and rightly so. MG has CAKE matchups all the live long season. The multitude of RBs and BB do scare me, but the upside at his ADP is pretty sexy. If MG does fill the Blount role, it's gunna be a turkey shoot!
  4. You know, the more I think about it and the more I use the gut-feeling scientific method, the more I like Gillislee. I am all in. Plus, Warren Sharpe's SOS and FF Toolbox point out the Pats have one of the easiest schedules in the league - especially against the run. Brady is old and they aren't going to want him wearing out before the pre-season, Gronk is injury prone so it would make sense they try to cut back on his reg season usage a bit, maybe even a bit in the red zone. Edelman and Cooks aren't really red zone-sized TD targets. They already did this last year giving Blount all the goal line work. Just about every other RB from Shady on down is just not that sexy. Conclusion, gut-feeling is MG might be my favorite target right now!
  5. Great article on Ajayi. Persuasive stats and points as to why he is the real deal. Unfortunate points about Jerman Bushrod NOT being the real deal and the effect has on Ajayi (in addition to Pouncey.) https://www.profootballfocus.com/fantasy-football-metrics-that-matter-jay-ajayis-productive-2016/ The Bills do look to have a brutal RB schedule which, per the article above, doesn't concern me regarding Ajayi but it does concern me a bit when you consider the O-line. Bucs Chargers Jets Saints Titans Falcons Jets Ravens Raiders Panthers Pats Broncos Pats Bills Chiefs Week 17 Bills Bills in the playoffs and then week 17 so that's one bonanza off the table. Thanks Roger. >:-( Thoughts?
  6. I would like Gordon to be as good as his ADP but I am a neurotic pessimist. Please help me feel better about Gordon. Seriously. My cynical minim me keeps telling me he wasn't that productive his rookie season and his YPC was sub 4 last year. I also seem to remember his scouting report mentioning something about being great when he had space but not so great otherwise. He scored a lot of TDs last year which can be flukey. The Chargers also have a brutal schedule. Seems like there is potential for a pretty low floor?
  7. Re MIxon: Jeremy Hill was one of, if not the most, efficient RB at punching in it near the goal line last year.
  8. I hope you and others are right about this because I can't find two decent RBs to rub together in the mock drafts I've been doing. What games did Pouncey actually play last year? Looking back, I believe his absence didn't just "dent" Ajayi's value, it pretty much knocked it down from stud RB1 to flex. That is just too much risk in the second round but to sweeten the pain, there aren't many other options.
  9. Any thoughts on the fact that the Dolphins "don't know" when Pouncy will back? Beginning to think it might be better to evaluate Ajayi as if Pouncy will not play for much if any of the season.
  10. Ru Roh; "Pouncey is recovering from an April stem cell procedure that will sideline him through the offseason. His camp status is questionable, and the Dolphins "aren't fully certain" when he'll return to action. Miami doesn't plan to take any chances with Pouncey after missing all but five games last year. Pouncey could sit out the entire preseason."
  11. Andrew Luck today on Jack Doyle: "We're not off to a good start honestly. He's been slow, he doesn't have a good grasp of the playbook and his timing need a lot of work. I know he was trying a new diet this offseason but I told him he needs to go back to what he was doing before. All the time he's been spending at Miami Beach is also sort of a problem in my mind. I absolutely would not draft him in fantasy football."
  12. Unfortunate nugget from Silva's Fantasy Breakouts piece: "Gillislee’s downside is that he simply lacks passing-game skills with just 15 receptions through four NFL seasons and one of the worst pass-blocking grades among running backs charted by Pro Football Focus last year. " How is Rex Burkhead at pass-pro?
  13. It also doesn't hurt that Fournette graded out as one of, if not the best pass-protection blockers of all this year's rookie RBs. Well, scratch that. I listened to the Pat Mayo RB segment on YouTube where they said he was a good pass protector but his NFL Scouting Report says he needs extensive work in that area. Guess Preseason will tell.
  14. On one of the last Football Guys podcasts, Cecil Lamy said he recently asked D Thomas about the injury he suffered last year in week 1 and whether it was fully healed and Cecil said something to the effect of Thomas was evasive about it. If I remember the conversation right, Cecil's take was that he is okay right now but it is one of those things that could be reaggravated pretty easily.
  15. Agreed* *5/27/17