tonycpsu

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tonycpsu last won the day on July 10

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About tonycpsu

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  1. 7/16 - 2018 HOME RUN DERBY

    Some really terrible defensive routes by the outfielders tonight. Don't they teach these players the fundamentals anymore?
  2. 7/16 - 2018 HOME RUN DERBY

    [Posts removed. If you're stopping by a thread just to tell others how much you don't care about the subject of the thread... maybe don't do that?]
  3. Jesus Aguilar 2018 Outlook

    [HR Derby derail removed. Go here if you want to talk about the "curse", or here if you want to discuss anything else about the derby.]
  4. Shane Bieber 2018 Outlook

    [Use the game day thread.]
  5. Jesus Aguilar 2018 Outlook

    Just bumping for another dong here to avoid The Rotoworld Forums Curse, whereby a player who doesn't get their thread bumped after crushing a dong goes into an extended slump.
  6. Freddy Peralta 2018 Outlook

    [Several removed. @The Waker and @cs3, we've had enough of the personal attacks and snide remarks. If you can't make your case without attacking other community members, your posting privileges will be suspended.]
  7. The Home Run Derby "Curse"

    Thanks. The sample size of 96 is okay but not great for something like this, but more importantly, the decline in ISO is so negligible as to be meaningless. Nobody would be talking about it as a curse by citing a .026 decline in ISO -- they're talking about much larger declines. Be that as it may, I decided to see if anyone had done a more recent and more thorough dive into the problem, and I found this piece from 2015, which directly cites the Breen study you've linked to, along with the SABR study I originally cited. Keep in mind that this is by some rando Fangraphs community member, not an actual writer for the site, but let's leave credentialism aside and focus on the content. The author seems to be very charitable toward the findings of these other studies, noting that the Breen study did find a small drop in ISO, but that it did not do a good job of explaining whether this could be simple regression to the mean resulting from the selection bias that comes with the derby selection process. The most compelling finding, I think, is this: This is a key step that the author of your 2013 link did not perform -- he alluded to regression, but chose not to / was unable to design a study that accounted for it.
  8. The Home Run Derby "Curse"

    Read the first link -- in particular, analyses 2 and 3, which set up the comparisons in such a way that factors participation in the derby out of the equation entirely, meaning mental / psychological impact is completely eliminated as a possible cause. Analysis #2 studies repeat participants, but compares to the seasons where they didn't participate, and thus would have no mental / physical problems from the derby. Analysis #3 removes second halves from those who participated and replaces them with second halves in which they didn't. You're welcome to criticize the methodology, but saying "this thing we can't possibly measure is causing it" when the study has been specifically set up to be resistant to that kind of effect is flat-out wrong. You can keep saying it, but it's factually incorrect.
  9. The Home Run Derby "Curse"

    The three links I showed studied the problem from several different angles, not just "players who participated and players who didn't." What study are you talking about here? You mentioned a 2013 article but I didn't see a link. One obvious problem with the "those who participated vs. those who didn't" stratification is that there is such a small number of those who are selected that it would be vulnerable to sample size problems. But I'd need to read the piece to know for sure.
  10. The Home Run Derby "Curse"

    ...but this thing can, and has. And it's conclusive. Whether the impact is physical, mental, superstitious, or whatever has no bearing on those studies, as they looked into whether there was an effect among those who participated (there was not), not why there was an effect.
  11. The Home Run Derby "Curse"

    Players have an obvious interest in minimizing their own role in their (perceived) failure. The numbers show that there's no statistically meaningful difference between those who participate and those who don't. We're all entitled to our opinions, but the facts are right there in black and white, and can't be hand-waved away by the fact that some players bought into the hype that they were really a 35 (or whatever) HR player that year when their career norms show they never were, derby or not.
  12. The Home Run Derby "Curse"

    Yep, which means he should have never been reasonably expected to double his pre-ASB output of 18, which means it's another case of the curse being ret-conned in by people looking to fit a ready-made narrative to the data instead of the other way around.
  13. The Home Run Derby "Curse"

    Right. Meanwhile, Lisa Simpson had a rock, and she wasn't attacked by tigers. Therefore, her rock repels tigers.
  14. Garrett Richards 2018 Outlook

    Some people play in keeper/dynasty formats.