tonycpsu

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tonycpsu last won the day on July 27 2018

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About tonycpsu

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  1. 2018-19 Off-Season and Hot Stove Thread

    I agree with your overall conclusions, but I don't think these two statements are bulletproof. The $8m/WAR figure people are throwing around has been reverse-engineered from what teams have paid free agents in recent years -- basically, what it takes to get the guys who already played out their years of team control and any contract extension years. The actual cost per WAR across the entire league would be a much different number, because it would include the insane bargain of homegrown talent given the artificially suppressed wages of guys in their first 6-7 years. On some level, this is a distinction without a difference -- if you need FAs to fill in gaps in your roster, you have to pay what the market says they are, and it's not like other teams are going to trade you their cost-controlled pieces for something far less than that when you do the math on what you save on them vs. what you pay from your own farm system in prospects. But teams don't always need FAs to fill in gaps, and some front offices trust their ability to make profit on deals involving prospects and cost-controlled major leaguers more than they trust the FA market in a given year. This means that even if the market is using an $8m/WAR figure, an individual club might rationally set the number lower based on their own organizational strengths and weaknesses. And re: the second point about inflation: this is true until it isn't. Skyrocketing TV rights deals and the sell-off of MLB Advanced Media have made it so that teams are flush with cash, but these trends aren't set in stone or encoded into law. Viewership numbers are lagging, especially among key demographics, and there's been a lot of speculation that future TV rights deals will come in a lot lower due to cord-cutting, economic conditions, etc. Of course, if we knew the answers to these questions we could be making money on those answers, but I do think it's important to recognize that revenues can plateau or even go down at any time, and that attaching oneself to a single player for 8 or 10 years adds some risk of going underwater if the next TV deal comes in light.
  2. My preferred mechanism for limiting streaming in 5x5 roto is to increase the depth of the pitching pool, either by adding teams or pitching slots, such that streaming becomes a more risky proposition. It's one thing to pike up Ws and Ks with streamers in the SP50-SP60 range that are going to be out there in a 10-team league with 5 SP slots, it's another to try to do it with guys in the back end of the top 100. I have no problems with reasonable innings limits, either, but limiting innings doesn't do enough on its own without some more tension between counting stats and ratios.
  3. CBS- 2019 TOP 100 Prospects

    [ @daynlokki and @brockpapersizer, do not bring (or perpetuate) beefs from other threads in here.]
  4. 2018-19 Off-Season and Hot Stove Thread

    I was already fading Kluber, so a move to the Reds would basically make him DND for me. I think the move to a much more competitive division would hurt him a lot more than facing pitchers every time through the order would him. He'd still be a back-end fantasy ace, but without those AL Central cupcakes on his schedule, he'd no longer be the safe investment he's been over the past few years.
  5. Kyler Murray OF OAK

    I find myself in agreement with Deadspin's take here. Tell Me Again Why Kyler Murray Would Ever Want To Play Baseball?
  6. 2018-19 Off-Season and Hot Stove Thread

    [Several removed. There is nothing stopping anyone from opening up a new thread specifically focused on the pros and cons of long-term contracts, but we are not going to micromanage this kind of catch-all news and discussion thread. Moderation has always been a lot more hands-off in the offseason, so the bar for shutting down a line of commentary in this sort of thread is very high. In-thread complaints about a thread are never okay here -- if you have a concern about the discussion being derailed, report the post to us and we'll be happy to take a closer look. Otherwise, keep the complaints to yourself.]
  7. Gauging keeper value

    [Guys, either take this meta argument to PM or take a step back and focus on the underlying topic here instead of arguing about who can and can't read.]
  8. 2019 Sleepers

    Freeland pitched in Denver throughout high school. Not sure if that's just narrative or if that experience has helped him pitch better there, and I think the ceiling is more high end SP2 than fantasy ace, but if the ADP remains in the mid 100s, I like him much more than guys around him like Keuchel, Quintana, and Stripling.
  9. 2018-19 Off-Season and Hot Stove Thread

    Kapler's bullpen philosophy last year was... weird. Perhaps having an established vet like Robertson With Closer Experience™️ might get him to go a more traditional route, but I wouldn't bet on it.
  10. 2018-19 Off-Season and Hot Stove Thread

    Robertson is a nice get for the Phils, but perhaps more importantly, it means they probably aren't going to overpay for Kimbrel.
  11. Corey Seager 2019 Outlook

    Yeah, obviously Seager's a better bargain than Correa aside from the more recent (and severe) injury problem. "Injury prone" is something you can't really assess until you have a larger sample than we have of either player, so I wouldn't use that label on either one, but if I'm forced to pick one at equal price, I'll take the guy who's been healthier lately. Of course they're not going at an equal price, so yeah, if forced to take one or the other, give me Seager. But that's my point -- the depth of SS means you're not forced to take either at their price. There are so many better values out there. They might not give you MVP-ish upside in the top 5% of their range of outcomes, but they'll have similar floors at much lower draft prices. I think both are overvalued because of the tantalizing upside. I like my upside gambles later in drafts. YMMV.
  12. Corey Seager 2019 Outlook

    The early ADP (60-ish) isn't reflecting enough of a bargain for me to buy in given the unprecedented depth of the SS position, the question of how quickly he'll recover from the injury to reach his full production, and the fact that he's a zero in the SB column. Maybe in 6x6 or other formats where SB are devalued and you get credit for his doubles, walks, etc. I can see using a late 5th/early 6th round pick, but as a 5x5 asset, I think the price is still a little too rich for my blood. I'm probably bothering to fill SS that early, but if I am, give me Segura.
  13. This thread is being provided to facilitate the process of finding threads for specific players, teams, and topics of interest. The content of this thread is automatically generated by a script that monitors this forum for new threads and updates the index below. A new index thread will be created toward the beginning of each sport's offseason for the following season of play. To ensure that new player and team outlook threads are found by this script, please pay attention to spelling, punctuation, and capitalization, and use one of the following templates for the title of any new outlook threads: For player outlook threads, use [First] [Last] [Year] [Outlook], e.g. Mike Trout 2018 Outlook. For team outlook threads, use [City] [Team] [Year] [Outlook], e.g. Philadelphia Eagles 2018 Outlook. Links in the "Miscellaneous Links" section, if present, are selected by the forum moderators, or someone selected by them. Many thanks to RW forums member @posty, who maintained the original player index thread on which this script is based. This thread will remain locked to avoid any clutter. Please post any questions, comments, and suggestions you may have to this thread in the Fantasy Feedback forum. *** A *** Adams, Davante Anderson, C.J. *** B *** Barkley, Saquon Beckham Jr., Odell Bell, Le'Veon Brown, Antonio *** C *** Carson, Chris Chubb, Nick Cohen, Tarik Conner, James Cook, Dalvin *** D *** Diggs, Stefon Dixon, Kenneth *** E *** Elliott, Ezekiel Engram, Evan Evans, Mike *** F *** Freeman, Devonta *** G *** Gates, Antonio Golladay, Kenny Gordon, Melvin Guice, Derrius *** H *** Henry, Derrick Hill, Tyreek Hopkins, DeAndre Howard, Jordan Howard, O.J. Hunt, Kareem *** I *** Ingram, Mark *** J *** Johnson, David Johnson, Kerryon Jones, Aaron Jones, Julio *** K *** Kamara, Alvin Kelce, Travis Kirkwood, Keith Kittle, George *** L *** Lindsay, Phillip Lockett, Tyler Luck, Andrew *** M *** Mahomes, Patrick Manning, Eli Mariota, Marcus Martin, Doug McCaffrey, Christian McCarthy, Mike Michel, Sony Mixon, Joe *** P *** Parkey, Cody *** R *** Rivers, Philip *** S *** Smith-Schuster, JuJu *** T *** Tate III, Golden Thielen, Adam *** V *** Vinatieri, Adam *** W *** Williams, Damien Wilson, Russell Winston, Jameis *** AFC Team Links *** Buffalo Bills Jacksonville Jaguars Miami Dolphins New York Jets Tennessee Titans *** NFC Team Links *** Arizona Cardinals Chicago Bears Dallas Cowboys Green Bay Packers Tampa Bay Buccaneers *** Miscellaneous Links *** 2019 Dynasty Central
  14. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. - 3B TOR

    [Reluctantly stepping in here to clarify a couple of things from a site rules perspective. While this is first and foremost a forum for discussing fantasy, a discussion of a player's real-life value to the team is certainly within the bounds of discussion here. With that said, if all you're here to do is relentlessly drive home the same point about suspect defense -- a point that I don't see a lot of people here pushing back on -- there comes a time when we have to ask you to bring something new to the table or agree to disagree. There's a lot to talk about in Vlad's game, and a lot of other players to talk about. We can't have the thread repeatedly circling back to the same dynamic with the same principals arguing over the same unanswerable questions -- that's not informing or entertaining anyone.]