tonycpsu

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tonycpsu last won the day on December 16 2017

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  1. Round 11 Results # Pick Player Team 151 11.1 Hill, Rich (LAD-P) Team didi 152 11.2 Zunino, Mike (SEA-C) Team 89Topps 153 11.3 Vizcaino, Arodys (ATL-P) Team Derek706 154 11.4 Neris, Hector (PHI-P) Magoo 155 11.5 Cueto, Johnny (SF-P) Fantasy Baseball Geek 156 11.6 Treinen, Blake (OAK-P) Team thewallsaround 157 11.7 Bradley, Archie (ARI-P) dark kn19ht 158 11.8 Bruce, Jay (NYM-OF) The Fuzz 159 11.9 DeJong, Paul (STL-SS) Team itsthefazz 160 11.10 Cozart, Zack (LAA-SS) tonycpsu 161 11.11 Bird, Greg (NYY-1B) parrotheadpadre 162 11.12 Bour, Justin (MIA-1B) Team JFS179 163 11.13 Lester, Jon (CHC-P) Jamgol 164 11.14 Bell, Josh (PIT-1B) Team BostonCajun 165 11.15 Mazara, Nomar (TEX-OF) Team sngehl01
  2. Round 10 Results # Pick Player Team 136 10.1 Smoak, Justin (TOR-1B) Team sngehl01 137 10.2 Santana, Carlos (PHI-1B) Team BostonCajun 138 10.3 Moustakas, Mike ((N/A)-3B) Jamgol 139 10.4 Schwarber, Kyle (CHC-OF) Team JFS179 140 10.5 Bauer, Trevor (CLE-P) parrotheadpadre 141 10.6 Gray, Sonny (NYY-P) tonycpsu 142 10.7 Gray, Jon (COL-P) Team itsthefazz 143 10.8 Seager, Kyle (SEA-3B) The Fuzz 144 10.9 Carpenter, Matt (STL-1B) dark kn19ht 145 10.10 Gallo, Joey (TEX-3B) Team thewallsaround 146 10.11 Jones, Adam (BAL-OF) Fantasy Baseball Geek 147 10.12 Familia, Jeurys (NYM-P) Magoo 148 10.13 Doolittle, Sean (WAS-P) Team Derek706 149 10.14 Franco, Maikel (PHI-3B) Team 89Topps 150 10.15 Samardzija, Jeff (SF-P) Team didi
  3. Round 9 Results # Pick Player Team 121 9.1 McCullers Jr., Lance (HOU-P) Team didi 122 9.2 Davis, Wade (COL-P) Team 89Topps 123 9.3 Happ, Ian (CHC-2B) Team Derek706 124 9.4 Gattis, Evan (HOU-C) Magoo 125 9.5 Margot, Manuel (SD-OF) Fantasy Baseball Geek 126 9.6 Polanco, Gregory (PIT-OF) Team thewallsaround 127 9.7 Eaton, Adam (WAS-OF) dark kn19ht 128 9.8 Godley, Zack (ARI-P) The Fuzz 129 9.9 Lamb, Jake (ARI-3B) Team itsthefazz 130 9.10 Inciarte, Ender (ATL-OF) tonycpsu 131 9.11 Longoria, Evan (SF-3B) parrotheadpadre 132 9.12 Gonzalez, Marwin (HOU-OF) Team JFS179 133 9.13 Colome, Alex (TB-P) Jamgol 134 9.14 Stroman, Marcus (TOR-P) Team BostonCajun 135 9.15 Nunez, Eduardo ((N/A)-3B) Team sngehl01
  4. Round 8 Results # Pick Player Team 106 8.1 Hand, Brad (SD-P) Team sngehl01 107 8.2 Albies, Ozzie (ATL-2B) Team BostonCajun 108 8.3 Hendricks, Kyle (CHC-P) Jamgol 109 8.4 Allen, Cody (CLE-P) Team JFS179 110 8.5 Perez, Salvador (KC-C) parrotheadpadre 111 8.6 Iglesias, Raisel (CIN-P) tonycpsu 112 8.7 Baez, Javier (CHC-2B) Team itsthefazz 113 8.8 Castellanos, Nicholas (DET-3B) The Fuzz 114 8.9 Olson, Matt (OAK-OF) dark kn19ht 115 8.10 Weaver, Luke (STL-P) Team thewallsaround 116 8.11 Diaz, Edwin (SEA-P) Fantasy Baseball Geek 117 8.12 Desmond, Ian (COL-OF) Magoo 118 8.13 Berrios, Jose (MIN-P) Team Derek706 119 8.14 Rosario, Eddie (MIN-OF) Team 89Topps 120 8.15 Beltre, Adrian (TEX-3B) Team didi
  5. Miguel Cabrera 2018 Outlook

    I'm the one who took him at 100 in our slow mock. No brainer at that price, but even if you feel like he's going to go at 70-80 in your room, I think you have to take him as long as you don't have a lot of risk in the earlier rounds. I'm the kind of guy who tends to be pretty risk averse early and take some shots at upside in the middle rounds, so if i haven't already covered my 1B/CI slots and he falls to me in the 70ish range, I think I'd give it a shot.
  6. Round 7 Results # Pick Player Team 91 7.1 Osuna, Roberto (TOR-P) Team didi 92 7.2 Castillo, Luis (CIN-P) Team 89Topps 93 7.3 Shaw, Travis (MIL-3B) Team Derek706 94 7.4 Price, David (BOS-P) Magoo 95 7.5 Rivero, Felipe (PIT-P) Fantasy Baseball Geek 96 7.6 Sano, Miguel (MIN-3B) Team thewallsaround 97 7.7 Moncada, Yoan (CHW-2B) dark kn19ht 98 7.8 Taylor, Chris (LAD-2B) The Fuzz 99 7.9 Wood, Alex (LAD-P) Team itsthefazz 100 7.10 Cabrera, Miguel (DET-1B) tonycpsu 101 7.11 Puig, Yasiel (LAD-OF) parrotheadpadre 102 7.12 Acuna, Ronald (ATL-OF) Team JFS179 103 7.13 Story, Trevor (COL-SS) Jamgol 104 7.14 Braun, Ryan (MIL-OF) Team BostonCajun 105 7.15 Giles, Ken (HOU-P) Team sngehl01
  7. Eduardo Nunez 2018 Outlook

    Not super psyched about this outcome because of the PT uncertainty. At least Hanley and Pedroia are injury risks, so he's definitely on the "super" end of utility guys, but if everyone's healthy, he could get squeezed. Love the skills, but I have a hard time going any higher than 130 for a guy who isn't a lock to get everyday ABs.
  8. I had a paragraph about Ohtani and deleted it because any discussion of Ohtani at this point is ¯\_(ツ)_/¯. Me personally, I'm totally out on the guy., but if you think he's a top 20 arm with top 10 upside and can put up replacement level hitting stats on his hitting days, then ADP is way too pessimistic on him. If you think he'll have some trouble adjusting to MLB, won't perform well enough to balance out the 6 man rotation factor, and don't think he'll produce enough hitting value to matter, then ADP is too bullish. Plus you only took him ~10 picks ahead of ADP, so honestly it wasn't a reach or anything. He was probably going to go soon anyway. Really hard to serve up a hot take about a guy who hasn't thrown a single pitch against MiLB or MLB hitters.
  9. Paul Goldschmidt 2018 Outlook

    OK, well, happy to clarify, and my apologies for reading your response the wrong way.
  10. Paul Goldschmidt 2018 Outlook

    I'm talking about adding the risk of a modest HR drop to the existing risks, which include (a) he's heading into his age 31 season, (b) he gets a good amount of his value from stolen bases, (c) the lineup around him is taking a step backward unless JD comes back. Of course he still has a first round floor, I just don't see it a top 3 overall pick floor anymore, and I don't understand why you think that's so controversial.
  11. Round 6 Results # Pick Player Team 76 6.1 Andrus, Elvis (TEX-SS) Team sngehl01 77 6.2 Bogaerts, Xander (BOS-SS) Team BostonCajun 78 6.3 Cano, Robinson (SEA-2B) Jamgol 79 6.4 Quintana, Jose (CHC-P) Team JFS179 80 6.5 Cole, Gerrit (HOU-P) parrotheadpadre 81 6.6 Cain, Lorenzo (MIL-OF) tonycpsu 82 6.7 Cespedes, Yoenis (NYM-OF) Team itsthefazz 83 6.8 McCutchen, Andrew (SF-OF) The Fuzz 84 6.9 Santana, Domingo (MIL-OF) dark kn19ht 85 6.10 Odor, Rougned (TEX-2B) Team thewallsaround 86 6.11 Merrifield, Whit (KC-2B) Fantasy Baseball Geek 87 6.12 Tanaka, Masahiro (NYY-P) Magoo 88 6.13 Arrieta, Jake ((N/A)-P) Team Derek706 89 6.14 Gregorius, Didi (NYY-SS) Team 89Topps 90 6.15 Hosmer, Eric ((N/A)-1B) Team didi
  12. Quick recap of rounds 1-5: Rnd Team didi Team 89Topps Team Derek706 Magoo Fantasy Baseball Geek Team thewallsaround dark kn19ht The Fuzz Team itsthefazz tonycpsu parrotheadpadre Team JFS179 Jamgol Team BostonCajun Team sngehl01 1 Trout, Mike LAA (CF) Altuve, José HOU (2B) Goldschmidt, Paul ARI (1B) Arenado, Nolan COL (3B) Turner, Trea WAS (SS) Harper, Bryce WAS (RF) Stanton, Giancarlo NYY (RF) Betts, Mookie BOS (RF) Bryant, Kris CHC (3B) Kershaw, Clayton LAD (SP) Sánchez, Gary NYY (C) Scherzer, Max WAS (SP) Blackmon, Charlie COL (CF) Correa, Carlos HOU (SS) Rizzo, Anthony CHC (1B) 2 Benintendi, Andrew BOS (LF) Martinez, J.D. (N/A) (RF) Bumgarner, Madison SF (SP) Donaldson, Josh TOR (3B) Judge, Aaron NYY (RF) Bellinger, Cody LAD (LF) Gordon, Dee SEA (2B) Ramírez, José CLE (3B) Votto, Joey CIN (1B) Freeman, Freddie ATL (1B) Lindor, Francisco CLE (SS) Machado, Manny BAL (3B) Sale, Chris BOS (SP) Kluber, Corey CLE (SP) Bregman, Alex HOU (3B) 3 Contreras, Willson CHC (C) Carrasco, Carlos CLE (SP) Springer, George HOU (RF) Jansen, Kenley LAD (RP) Syndergaard, Noah NYM (SP) Strasburg, Stephen WAS (SP) Severino, Luis NYY (SP) Hoskins, Rhys PHI (1B) deGrom, Jacob NYM (SP) Dozier, Brian MIN (2B) Seager, Corey LAD (SS) Verlander, Justin HOU (SP) Abreu, José CHW (1B) Cruz, Nelson SEA (RF) Ozuna, Marcell STL (LF) 4 Pham, Tommy STL (CF) Myers, Wil SD (1B) Pollock, A.J. ARI (CF) Marte, Starling PIT (CF) Rendon, Anthony WAS (3B) Martínez, Carlos STL (SP) Ray, Robbie ARI (SP) Greinke, Zack ARI (SP) Posey, Buster SF (C) Davis, Khris OAK (LF) Yelich, Christian MIL (CF) Buxton, Byron MIN (CF) Murphy, Daniel WAS (2B) Upton, Justin LAA (LF) Darvish, Yu CHC (SP) 5 Kimbrel, Craig BOS (RP) Ohtani, Shohei (R) LAA (SP) Encarnacion, Edwin CLE (1B) Nola, Aaron PHI (SP) Chapman, Aroldis NYY (RP) Hamilton, Billy CIN (CF) Knebel, Corey MIL (RP) Paxton, James SEA (SP) Segura, Jean SEA (SS) Archer, Chris TB (SP) Schoop, Jonathan BAL (2B) Devers, Rafael BOS (3B) Turner, Justin LAD (3B) Keuchel, Dallas HOU (SP) Realmuto, J.T. MIA (C) Round 1 The big story here is Gary Sanchez at pick 1.11. @parrothead called it a "settings pick", and in a 15-team 2C league, catcher scarcity is clearly going to be a huge factor. Still, this is the kind of pick I could never make with guys like Blackmon, Rizzo, Scherzer, and Machado all still on the board. It may very well be a mathematically sound selection because of how far ahead Sanchez is ahead of the other catchers, but 1.11 is higher than Posey was going in his prime, and Posey had a track record at that point. If Sanchez puts up 500+ PA of the kind pf production he had last year, then maybe this pick pays off, but I still see plenty of risk, and I'm usually someone who wants safer bets in the first round. The best value in this round to me was @jamgol nabbing Charlie Blackmon at 13. I could make an argument that OF scarcity in a 15-team 5 OF league is at least as relevant as catcher scarcity, simply because the pool thins out so much once you get past the top 50, and at that point you've still got on average 2 starting OF spots plus at least a bench OF or two to fill. The difference between Blackmon and someone like Hunter Renfroe or Max Kepler (the kind of guys you're going to end up in your OF4/5 slot if you don't address OF early) is huge. @sngehl01's pick of Rizzo looks a bit early compared to ADP, but given that he carries 2B eligiblity in this mock, I found this to be an outstanding value as well. Round 2 Now that I've given @sngehl01 props, it's time to roast him. Bregman going at 2.1 caused quite a stir in the draft room. At almost a round and a half earlier than ADP, this certainly looks like a reach, but one thing I've learned being part of a mock this deep is that you sometimes need to set ADP aside and go get your guys. The Shortstop scarcity is a thing, and though I personally think it's overblown, if you believe in the player and can fill a tough spot in your lineup, go get him. The other factor, and the one I personally buy into more than scarcity, is the flexibility. By going Rizzo/Bregman, you have your entire infield covered after just two picks. In a deep league, this opens up so many opportunities to go get the best player available instead of having to reach to cover a position. Ideally you'd want Bregman at SS and Rizzo at 2B, but if an amazing SS or 2B value came along, you just slide one of those guys over to one of the corners. The confounding factor here is that Manny Machado was still on the board, and will likely become SS eligible early in the season. I personally go Machado there, but I see potential in Bregman as well. I don't like the pick overall, but I at least understand the logic. Anyone who drafted early in round 1 and was hoping one of the four aces would come back to them was disappointed, as Kluber and Sale went right after Bregman. Honestly, I was surprised there weren't 4 SP taken in round 1 given how hard it's going to be to fill 135 pitching slots in a league of this depth. Otherwise this round went pretty much according to script. Round 3 @Magoo secured himself the best closer in the game by selecting Kenley Jansen at 34, which is right around his consensus ADP on Fantasypros. Closers are polarizing, so how you feel about this pick probably correlates with how you value paying for closers generally. I do think that Jansen's all alone in a tier by himself, ahead of Kimbrel, Knebel, etc. so I might reach more for him than I otherwise might... But at the end of the day, I"m just one of those guys who isn't going to pay for closers, so I suspect I won't own any Jansen this year. A lot of teams who missed out on the ace tier decided to try to secure their SP1s in this round, and @JFS179 even decided to support his Scherzer pick with Verlander at 3.12. I'll be interested to see the kind of offense he can put together going arm, bat, arm to start the draft, but he's obviously set up well to cover pitching categories, and won't have to mess with the questionable arms in the SP20-50 range. I think the value pick in this round was my own selection of Brian Dozier at 40, especially given how fast 2B thins out. Round 4 Hello, outfield run! This is the round where many owners, myself included, realized they were missing out on some of the upper-tier OF. 7 went off the board in this round, but the absolute steal this round was @Fuzzy_Slippers getting Zack Greinke (ADP 41) with the 53rd pick. Greinke isn't a sure thing the way some of the guys taken ahead of him are, but in light of the news about the D'Backs installing a humidor, you could do much worse for an SP1 in a 15-teamer. Teammate Robbie Ray went with the next pick, and was also a nice get vs. his ADP. Round 5 Whereas I thougth the Jansen pick was way too early, I'm okay with @DidiFan's selection of Kimbrel at 61. Even though I think there's a lot of separation between Jansen and Kimbrel, we're talking about almost two rounds of a discount. If Kimbrel's even 80% of what Jansen is production-wise, this is a good pick. The big steal in this round was @Zig Zag's pick of Edwin Encarnacion at 63, more than a full round later than his ADP. This is the kind of value that you can get not worrying about position scarcity and just getting the best player available. He was also in my opinion at the end of a tier drop down to a significantly weaker 1B tier. Overall Thoughts There are some really interesting approaches to roster construction so far. @DidiFan has no pitchers after 5 rounds, but he does have the best OF hands-down. On the flip side, @adifazio27 didn't take an OF in the first five rounds, but has one of the better infields with Bryant, Votto, Segura, and Posey. Meanwhile, @Magoo started off his draft with back-to-back 3B in Arenado and Donaldson. I don't know that I've ever seen someone fill their CI slot with a 2nd round pick before, but obviously Donaldson's been a first rounder very recently, so I can see the logic of going and getting the best value and figuring out roster slots later. Definitely an "against the grain" selection, though. Generally speaking, my biggest takeaway from this mock is that 2nd-tier outfielders seemed to go way earlier than ADP, while 2nd-tier starters seemed to be available as bargains relative to ADP. If this trend continues, I may have to push up OF a bit in my personal rankings and hope to get some value SP1/SP2 guys later on.
  13. Round 5 Results # Pick Player Team 61 5.1 Kimbrel, Craig (BOS-P) Team didi 62 5.2 Ohtani, Shohei (LAA-P) Team 89Topps 63 5.3 Encarnacion, Edwin (CLE-1B) Team Derek706 64 5.4 Nola, Aaron (PHI-P) Magoo 65 5.5 Chapman, Aroldis (NYY-P) Fantasy Baseball Geek 66 5.6 Hamilton, Billy (CIN-OF) Team thewallsaround 67 5.7 Knebel, Corey (MIL-P) dark kn19ht 68 5.8 Paxton, James (SEA-P) The Fuzz 69 5.9 Segura, Jean (SEA-SS) Team itsthefazz 70 5.10 Archer, Chris (TB-P) tonycpsu 71 5.11 Schoop, Jonathan (BAL-2B) parrotheadpadre 72 5.12 Devers, Rafael (BOS-3B) Team JFS179 73 5.13 Turner, Justin (LAD-3B) Jamgol 74 5.14 Keuchel, Dallas (HOU-P) Team BostonCajun 75 5.15 Realmuto, J.T. (MIA-C) Team sngehl01
  14. Paul Goldschmidt 2018 Outlook

    Baseball Savant lets you filter their spray charts, but you have to mess with the URL to do it -- there's no way to filter by venue on the page. Here's the URL for his hits at Chase Field. And, for some weird reason, the spray charts always default to Kaufman Stadium, so you have to select the D'Backs from the dropdown to see the hits overlaid correctly on the field. It looks like this: And even after all of that, you can't really trust the chart, though, because sometimes it's just plain wrong. Click the circle directly underneath the 407 in straightaway center to see what I mean (on the page itself, not my screenshot) -- that thing looks like a wall-scraper to CF on the chart, but in reality it's a monster bomb to right when you watch the video. Just looking at a few of the videos for the ones registering as closest to the wall, I see maybe four that would have probably been loud outs with the humidor, which has been said to reduce HR distance by something like 14 feet. The oppo shot along the RF line is definitely a Chase Field special, and a few of the ones closer to the LF wall probably wouldn't have made it, either. Obviously none of these numbers are set in stone -- it'll depend on how the humidor is used, how long the balls sit out before they're used, etc. But there's more than a little risk here.
  15. Round 4 Results # Pick Player Team 46 4.1 Darvish, Yu (CHC-P) Team sngehl01 47 4.2 Upton, Justin (LAA-OF) Team BostonCajun 48 4.3 Murphy, Daniel (WAS-2B) Jamgol 49 4.4 Buxton, Byron (MIN-OF) Team JFS179 50 4.5 Yelich, Christian (MIL-OF) parrotheadpadre 51 4.6 Davis, Khris (OAK-OF) tonycpsu 52 4.7 Posey, Buster (SF-C) Team itsthefazz 53 4.8 Greinke, Zack (ARI-P) The Fuzz 54 4.9 Ray, Robbie (ARI-P) dark kn19ht 55 4.10 Martinez, Carlos (STL-P) Team thewallsaround 56 4.11 Rendon, Anthony (WAS-3B) Fantasy Baseball Geek 57 4.12 Marte, Starling (PIT-OF) Magoo 58 4.13 Pollock, A.J. (ARI-OF) Team Derek706 59 4.14 Myers, Wil (SD-1B) Team 89Topps 60 4.15 Pham, Tommy (STL-OF) Team didi