tonycpsu

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Everything posted by tonycpsu

  1. Trevor Bauer 2018 Outlook

    Rough go of it tonight in Arlington. The game time temperature in at Globe Life Park was 107, so I'm giving him more than the usual "even aces turn in a clunker now and then" pass. Pirates up next at home should be a much better situation.
  2. July Closer Thread 2018

    Wait until you see what Allen just did.
  3. 7/20 - GAME DAY THREAD

    ...and now that Marwin just missed a makeable play, we can safely say that he was working on a no-no through 6 2/3.
  4. Jesus Aguilar 2018 Outlook

    Curse, schmurse.
  5. Matt Carpenter 2018 Outlook

    [BCs and CSBs removed. C'mon guys.]
  6. Jose Martinez 2018 Outlook

    Or he ran over the new manager's dog or something. That's just insulting.
  7. Matt Carpenter 2018 Outlook

    That'll play.
  8. Jose Martinez 2018 Outlook

    No, they don't. What they have to be is be better than the sum total of the production of the regulars that would be cycled into the DH spot for days off in the field, plus whatever the flexibility of an extra bench player that can add value on defense is worth. On a bad AL team (Royals, Tigers, whatever) you obviously don't have to be very good to be better than the regulars, but the amount you have to be better than them has to be offset by the loss of a bench player, keeping in mind many teams are already rolling with just 4 bench bats before the full-time DH, one of whom is a backup catcher. There's an argument to be made that Martinez's production so far makes him worth it, but the cast of characters you named shows how fungible these guys are. There are only 15 jobs and a lot of guys who can post an .800-ish OPS but can't do anything in the field. Also, keep in mind there's about a 5% penalty to wOBA for guys who transition to being a full-time DH.
  9. July Closer Thread 2018

    Most seasoned fantasy players understand how the deadline works with respect to bullpen arms moving at the deadline, but the market seems different this year. The superteam era has created a situation where there are a lot more teams selling, especially in the AL, but at the same time, the trend toward 8-man bullpens and the recognition of the third time through the order risk have led contenders with solid bullpens to try to improve even more. Like, it's conceivable that a guy like Zach Britton could end up behind 2 or 3 better relief arms on a team with a top 5 bullpen, which is going to have ripple effects on all the sellers who think they can flip their closer to get major prospects to turbo-charge their rebuild. There are more buyers *and* more sellers, but the roles that the buyers are looking to fill aren't the kind of roles that are going to fetch a massive prospect haul. It's easy to justify moving a Gleyber Torres type prospect when you're getting Aroldis Chapman to be your closer, but when you're just improving on your already capable ROOGY-ish middle innings guy and there are so many teams that would love to sell basically anyone in their pen for something of value, it seems like it's a buyer's market where the elite closers on bad teams might just stay put. Is the difference between Felipe Vazquez and Kirby Yates or even Jake Diekman really worth paying a premium for? The Braves and the Phillies are probably next after the Indians in terms of the need for bullpen help, and presumably could be filling 9th or 8th inning roles if they're serious about making a deep run. But after that, I see teams like the Dodgers, Mariners, Nats, Brewers, Red Sox, Cubs, D-Backs, Astros, and Yankees all dealing from a position of strength in trade negotiations. This makes San Diego's trade with Cleveland look very smart -- they beat the rush, and they got an impact player. If I were teams like the Pirates, Rangers, Reds, Tigers, and Mets with movable bullpen pieces, I'd be working really hard to get something even if the return is below what we've seen in previous years for bullpen help. It's just a different landscape out there right now.
  10. Josh Hader 2018 Outlook

    [Once again, a reminder that your comments need to be centered on Hader's fantasy outlook or they will be subject to removal.]
  11. Jose Martinez 2018 Outlook

    "Partly" is doing a lot of work here. Obviously, if every AL team had clones of David Ortiz or Edgar Martinez available, they'd let their regulars sit on the bench for a day off and give the DH starts to that guy, but there are only so many of those guys, and Jose Martinez isn't nearly at that level. Meanwhile, the 8-man bullpen is becoming the norm, meaning AL clubs like the Mariners that have a full-time DH end up with a 3-man bench that severely limits their flexibility. That's obviously worth it for a Nelson Cruz type bat, but Jose Martinez doesn't have Cruz's long track record of being an elite hitter. He's had two very good but not great years. The entire prime of his career? I mean, studies don't always agree about when the exact peak of a player's career is, but they all agree that by the time the player's age 30 season rolls around, their prime has passed, and the player's skills are going to decline. Of course we've seen DH-only guys like Ortiz and Cruz sustain solid production until much later, but they are the exceptions that prove the rule. Most guys fade long before that. In an era where 1B-only guys can barely find work, I have a hard time believing that a 32 or 33 year old full-time DH is going to have any trade value whatsoever. Teams value defense more nowadays, and they value extra relief arms to avoid their starters having to face batters 3 times. If you really think Jose Martinez has show enough that he belongs in the same conversation as David Ortiz and Nelson Cruz, then I guess we'll just disagree. He's a very nice bat who should be good for a few more years, but he's not the kind of guy a cellar-dwelling team is going to build around.
  12. Javier Baez 2018 Outlook

    Pretty common for guys who make the trip to get some time off. It wasn't a "B" for them.
  13. Jose Martinez 2018 Outlook

    Yeah, of course managers have to account for all aspects of a player's production, but this started with you downplaying how bad he is by saying you expected more than 7 errors. He's not just bad -- he's terrible by any measure, and it absolutely detracts from his value. I've already said I'd still play him if it were up to me. Part of that is because the Cards' other options aren't all that inspiring offensively -- there's a big difference between swapping Martinez in for Gyorko and swapping Santana in for Altherr/Williams.
  14. Jose Martinez 2018 Outlook

    We're talking about errors that Martinez affirmatively did make, not a hypothetical where someone who doesn't belong on the field somehow magically doesn't ever get credited with an error in a full season of play. You can't discount the presence of errors by indicating that their absence in such a hypothetical wouldn't be a complete measure of your defense. That's not how the logic works, and even if it were, the more advanced defensive metrics also have JoMart among the worst in the league. Just because fielding percentage doesn't measure a player's total defensive contribution doesn't mean it's not useful as a metric. As I said, it's all of the above. The fielding percentage says he's a bad defender. The advanced stats say he's a bad defender. The eye test says he's a bad defender. His managers say he's a bad defender with how they're using him. None of these data points are by themselves enough, but each of them adds to the case.
  15. Jose Martinez 2018 Outlook

    There just aren't many (any?) open DH positions around the AL nowadays. So many teams are using the DH to cycle in everyday players to give them a day off in the field, and the teams that aren't doing that already have the DH position covered or aren't contending and thus won't be willing to pay for a guy who doesn't have a long track record or a truly irreplaceable skill. I'm still holding in a deeper league, but if your league context means you need him to become an everyday player to be worth rostering, I think you have to make him your next drop.
  16. Wilson Ramos 2018 Outlook

    ["To punt or not to punt" needs to go in the strategy thread. Chatter about who you're picking up / who you picked up to replace Ramos is BC / CSB content.]
  17. 2018 MLB Trade Rumors and Deadline Thread

    [ProTip: You can select a portion of a comment to quote only the relevant section, as I just did here. Even works on mobile. Carry on.]
  18. July Closer Thread 2018

    The fact that Hand's a lefty would seem to increase the chances of this becoming a time-share / matchup-based closer situation. Tito was on the leading edge of unconventional bullpen usage, so having a shutdown guy from either side to finish games would seem to be right up his alley. I'm sure neither Allen nor Hand owners want any part of a committee, but depending on what you invested in them, it might be a way to salvage some value.
  19. July Closer Thread 2018

    Allen was leaking a bit of oil before the ASB. I'd hold for a week or two in case Allen hits the DL or otherwise implodes, but he's got one of the longer leashes in baseball, so I wouldn't hold Hand for very long.
  20. Jose Martinez 2018 Outlook

    Right, but he has 7. If things were different, they'd be different. 200 innings is enough of a sample to filter out guys who might just have had a run of easier fielding plays that's somehow masking their true talent. Look at the names near him on that board -- old man Pujols, converted backup catcher John Hicks... The numbers are what they are. Jo Mart is a butcher out there, by the metrics, by the eye test, and apparently by the evaluation of his old crappy manager and his new not-yet-deemed-to-be-crappy one. Nah, I never said that. I think he's just barely passable enough to play for as long as his bat is as red hot as it's been, and the numbers confirm this, with his offensive and defensive runs almost exactly canceling each other out at +11 and -11.2 respectively. I wouldn't sit him, but if you believe the WAR equations remotely reflect reality, then the defense really is eating most of the value he provides with his bat, and the move is justified. As an owner I don't like it, but we yell at managers all the time for not taking metrics seriously enough, and this is a case where the metrics say he's hurting the team almost as much as he's helping it. Can't blame the team for at least trying to send a message to get the kid to take the defensive aspect of his game more seriously.
  21. Manny Machado 2018 Outlook

    Wait, why would he buy a house when he's only guaranteed to be with the club for two months? Hotels and short-term rentals still exist, do they not? Meanwhile "know and love the team" is a very quaint notion that I'm afraid will have no basis in reality. Guys with 10 years devoted to a club might take a small hometown discount, but nobody is going to bond with a team in two months. The Phils would be lucky if he can remember where the bathroom is at CBP given how much time they'll spend on the road. The one and only reason to shell out for Manny is if you think it substantially increases your chance to win it all this year. I think with the way things are set up now, without any other moves that we know about, it maybe doubles their chances -- from one percent to two percent. That is not worth Sixto or Medina to me.
  22. Jose Martinez 2018 Outlook

    7 errors out of 594 chances is a pretty awful fielding percentage for a first baseman, putting him third worst among 1B with more than 200 innings at the position. And as much as I understand not wanting to put too much stock in the eye test, he looks awful out there.
  23. Josh Hader 2018 Outlook

    [And no, we're definitely not going to let people post screencaps or litigate the details of specific tweets here. Deadspin has a rundown, as do many other outlets.]
  24. Josh Hader 2018 Outlook

    [Just to be clear about the expectations here: as with any other case where off-the-field issues have a potential fantasy impact, the discussion here needs to be centered around on Josh Hader's fantasy outlook The statements in Hader's tweets are undeniably offensive, to the point where any discussion of how offensive they are is superfluous, and any attempt to try to express sympathy / compassion for him being a kid when he wrote the tweets is likely to be interpreted as excusing the underlying behavior. We will be removing any comments that stray from the primary purpose of these forums. There are plenty of other spaces on the internet where you can get on your soapbox and engage in a deeper discussion of the underlying issues, and I'd encourage you to go hit those up if you're not here to talk about Hader's value as a fantasy player.]
  25. 2018 MLB Trade Rumors and Deadline Thread

    You're not wrong, but your analysis is incomplete, in that it's leaving out the immense profit when you do get a guy who pans out. Nobody who clings desperately to young, cost-controllable pitching is unaware of the injury risk -- they've just correctly offset that by the fact that the ROI on the ones who make it exceeds that of even the highest tier bats, simply because starting pitching is so integral to team success. If you keep moving those guys for rentals and end up with no high-upside pitching stock in your minors, you're certainly not going to be able to buy it at an affordable price later.