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Everything posted by tonycpsu

  1. Pinned tab icon for blank

    @peelpub94: We appreciate the suggestion, but you should probably redirect this request to the forums staff isn't in charge of website branding stuff or configuring SSL, and we don't really have any insight into their priorities in terms of rolling out new features / fixes to the site.
  2. Segura's camp just indicated that he'll waive his no-trade clause to become a member of the Phillies, so it's time to talk about one of the more perpetually underrated SS options over the past few years. Ultimately, it's looking like what you think about Segura's 2019 outlook is going to depend on whether you think his power potential at Citizens Bank Park is closer to what we saw at Chase Field in 2016 (20 HR with a .499 SLG) or closer to his two years of lackluster power output in Seattle, with HR more in the low double-digits and a .420ish SLG. CBP isn't pre-humidor Chase Field, but it's certainly a better place to launch homers than Safeco. Sadly, Segura's home/road splits don't offer a ton of support for the notion that Safeco was dragging him down. He's actually had more HR over the past two seasons at home (14) than on the road (7) while the SLG has been mixed, significantly better at home in 2017 and a bit better on the road in 2018. HR are such infrequent events that you don't want to read too much into this, but the numbers aren't screaming to me that he's going to revert to the 20 HR guy he was in Arizona. Despite all of this, I expect Segura to be a high priority target for me in 2019 drafts, because (a) his two carrying skills (a .300ish AVG and 20+ SB) are increasingly hard to find in today's game, and (b) shortstop depth is at levels we've never seen before, making it far less important to go get one of the big-name elite options at the position. He was a big target for me last year as well, and though my prediction in his 2018 thread that his SB would increase alongside Dee Gordon turned out to be wrong, the track record of delivering in two scarce categories seems worth paying for. Seeing how much people have gotten burnt spending early picks on guys like Villar or Andrus after career years, I think I'll "settle" for the guy who's just consistently and quietly put up plus numbers over several years. The team context is unknown at this time with so many possible acquisitions to be made still, and it's of course possible that the hype train starts rolling and pushing his price up into the earlier rounds, eliminating the potential to profit from his relative anonymity. But as a Phillies fan and someone who owns Jean in both dynasty leagues, I'm psyched to see where things go in 2019.
  3. Manny Machado 2019 Outlook

    "Generational talent" is a pretty high bar. A true generational talent is going to go for much more than $25 mil per year.
  4. Manny Machado 2019 Outlook

    Winning baseball games is marketable. Right. He did not have success in an 16-game sample after having immense success over 800-some games. That is a true statement. Yeah, I might be worried about that if I were the Dodgers or another team with a pitcher's park, but the Yankees and Phillies have home parks that are even more favorable for RHB. I'll take a .750-ish road OPS if it comes with a .900 at home. The White Sox $175/7 is a mere 20% more per year than the Phillies paid for Carlos freaking Santana last year, for a player in his age 26-32 seasons (Santana was 31 last season.) If the other teams don't top that, they're doing it wrong.
  5. Jean Segura 2019 Outlook

    I can't figure out who would be in market for Cesar, though. So many teams already filled their 2B needs with guys like Murphy, Dozier, LeMahieu, etc. Harrison and Cabera are still out there as capable if not exciting options. Who's going to pay almost $8M for this year plus whatever he gets in arbitration next year for a guy who doesn't really offer any positional versatility? What contending teams still need a middling 2B-only player at this point?
  6. 2018-19 Off-Season and Hot Stove Thread

    Something like that, yeah, but it's complicated. The Phillies own 25% of the network, so they're kind of paying themselves. What really matters is the ad revenue. If advertisers aren't getting the results from their spots, they won't buy as many ads, and CSN and the ball club have a significant problem. I have no evidence that this is happening, but the ISP/TV/streaming content landscape is certainly more competitive than it used to be. I'm really not predicting doom for the league or any of the clubs, just noting why it might not be a bad idea to tap the brakes on forecasts that have revenues (and salaries) skyrocketing forever.
  7. 2018-19 Off-Season and Hot Stove Thread

    The stove might be lukewarm, but this rhetoric from Machado's agent is 🔥🔥🔥: It's kind of a tough situation for the reporters -- if these guys get wind of an offer and they report it, they're not doing anything wrong, even if there's a bigger offer (or potential offer) that they're not hearing from their sources. That's not really "tampering" -- if Manny's agent has a bigger offer to report that makes his client look better, he can leak it the same way other sources are doing. I don't think he really wants to open up the Pandora's box of stopping clubs and agents from leaking details of negotiations -- good luck trying to make that happen.
  8. 2018-19 Off-Season and Hot Stove Thread

    I agree with your overall conclusions, but I don't think these two statements are bulletproof. The $8m/WAR figure people are throwing around has been reverse-engineered from what teams have paid free agents in recent years -- basically, what it takes to get the guys who already played out their years of team control and any contract extension years. The actual cost per WAR across the entire league would be a much different number, because it would include the insane bargain of homegrown talent given the artificially suppressed wages of guys in their first 6-7 years. On some level, this is a distinction without a difference -- if you need FAs to fill in gaps in your roster, you have to pay what the market says they are, and it's not like other teams are going to trade you their cost-controlled pieces for something far less than that when you do the math on what you save on them vs. what you pay from your own farm system in prospects. But teams don't always need FAs to fill in gaps, and some front offices trust their ability to make profit on deals involving prospects and cost-controlled major leaguers more than they trust the FA market in a given year. This means that even if the market is using an $8m/WAR figure, an individual club might rationally set the number lower based on their own organizational strengths and weaknesses. And re: the second point about inflation: this is true until it isn't. Skyrocketing TV rights deals and the sell-off of MLB Advanced Media have made it so that teams are flush with cash, but these trends aren't set in stone or encoded into law. Viewership numbers are lagging, especially among key demographics, and there's been a lot of speculation that future TV rights deals will come in a lot lower due to cord-cutting, economic conditions, etc. Of course, if we knew the answers to these questions we could be making money on those answers, but I do think it's important to recognize that revenues can plateau or even go down at any time, and that attaching oneself to a single player for 8 or 10 years adds some risk of going underwater if the next TV deal comes in light.
  9. My preferred mechanism for limiting streaming in 5x5 roto is to increase the depth of the pitching pool, either by adding teams or pitching slots, such that streaming becomes a more risky proposition. It's one thing to pike up Ws and Ks with streamers in the SP50-SP60 range that are going to be out there in a 10-team league with 5 SP slots, it's another to try to do it with guys in the back end of the top 100. I have no problems with reasonable innings limits, either, but limiting innings doesn't do enough on its own without some more tension between counting stats and ratios.
  10. CBS- 2019 TOP 100 Prospects

    [ @daynlokki and @brockpapersizer, do not bring (or perpetuate) beefs from other threads in here.]
  11. 2018-19 Off-Season and Hot Stove Thread

    I was already fading Kluber, so a move to the Reds would basically make him DND for me. I think the move to a much more competitive division would hurt him a lot more than facing pitchers every time through the order would him. He'd still be a back-end fantasy ace, but without those AL Central cupcakes on his schedule, he'd no longer be the safe investment he's been over the past few years.
  12. Kyler Murray OF OAK

    I find myself in agreement with Deadspin's take here. Tell Me Again Why Kyler Murray Would Ever Want To Play Baseball?
  13. 2018-19 Off-Season and Hot Stove Thread

    [Several removed. There is nothing stopping anyone from opening up a new thread specifically focused on the pros and cons of long-term contracts, but we are not going to micromanage this kind of catch-all news and discussion thread. Moderation has always been a lot more hands-off in the offseason, so the bar for shutting down a line of commentary in this sort of thread is very high. In-thread complaints about a thread are never okay here -- if you have a concern about the discussion being derailed, report the post to us and we'll be happy to take a closer look. Otherwise, keep the complaints to yourself.]
  14. Gauging keeper value

    [Guys, either take this meta argument to PM or take a step back and focus on the underlying topic here instead of arguing about who can and can't read.]
  15. 2019 Sleepers

    Freeland pitched in Denver throughout high school. Not sure if that's just narrative or if that experience has helped him pitch better there, and I think the ceiling is more high end SP2 than fantasy ace, but if the ADP remains in the mid 100s, I like him much more than guys around him like Keuchel, Quintana, and Stripling.
  16. 2018-19 Off-Season and Hot Stove Thread

    Kapler's bullpen philosophy last year was... weird. Perhaps having an established vet like Robertson With Closer Experience™️ might get him to go a more traditional route, but I wouldn't bet on it.
  17. 2018-19 Off-Season and Hot Stove Thread

    Robertson is a nice get for the Phils, but perhaps more importantly, it means they probably aren't going to overpay for Kimbrel.
  18. Corey Seager 2019 Outlook

    Yeah, obviously Seager's a better bargain than Correa aside from the more recent (and severe) injury problem. "Injury prone" is something you can't really assess until you have a larger sample than we have of either player, so I wouldn't use that label on either one, but if I'm forced to pick one at equal price, I'll take the guy who's been healthier lately. Of course they're not going at an equal price, so yeah, if forced to take one or the other, give me Seager. But that's my point -- the depth of SS means you're not forced to take either at their price. There are so many better values out there. They might not give you MVP-ish upside in the top 5% of their range of outcomes, but they'll have similar floors at much lower draft prices. I think both are overvalued because of the tantalizing upside. I like my upside gambles later in drafts. YMMV.
  19. Corey Seager 2019 Outlook

    The early ADP (60-ish) isn't reflecting enough of a bargain for me to buy in given the unprecedented depth of the SS position, the question of how quickly he'll recover from the injury to reach his full production, and the fact that he's a zero in the SB column. Maybe in 6x6 or other formats where SB are devalued and you get credit for his doubles, walks, etc. I can see using a late 5th/early 6th round pick, but as a 5x5 asset, I think the price is still a little too rich for my blood. I'm probably bothering to fill SS that early, but if I am, give me Segura.
  20. This thread is being provided to facilitate the process of finding threads for specific players, teams, and topics of interest. The content of this thread is automatically generated by a script that monitors this forum for new threads and updates the index below. A new index thread will be created toward the beginning of each sport's offseason for the following season of play. To ensure that new player and team outlook threads are found by this script, please pay attention to spelling, punctuation, and capitalization, and use one of the following templates for the title of any new outlook threads: For player outlook threads, use [First] [Last] [Year] [Outlook], e.g. Mike Trout 2018 Outlook. For team outlook threads, use [City] [Team] [Year] [Outlook], e.g. Philadelphia Eagles 2018 Outlook. Links in the "Miscellaneous Links" section, if present, are selected by the forum moderators, or someone selected by them. Many thanks to RW forums member @posty, who maintained the original player index thread on which this script is based. This thread will remain locked to avoid any clutter. Please post any questions, comments, and suggestions you may have to this thread in the Fantasy Feedback forum. *** A *** Adams, Davante Anderson, C.J. *** B *** Barkley, Saquon Beckham Jr., Odell Bell, Le'Veon Brown, Antonio *** C *** Carson, Chris Chubb, Nick Cohen, Tarik Conner, James Cook, Dalvin *** D *** Diggs, Stefon Dixon, Kenneth *** E *** Elliott, Ezekiel Engram, Evan Evans, Mike *** F *** Freeman, Devonta *** G *** Gates, Antonio Golladay, Kenny Gordon, Melvin Guice, Derrius *** H *** Henry, Derrick Hill, Tyreek Hopkins, DeAndre Howard, Jordan Howard, O.J. Hunt, Kareem *** I *** Ingram, Mark *** J *** Johnson, David Johnson, Kerryon Jones, Aaron Jones, Julio *** K *** Kamara, Alvin Kelce, Travis Kirkwood, Keith Kittle, George *** L *** Lindsay, Phillip Lockett, Tyler Luck, Andrew *** M *** Mahomes, Patrick Manning, Eli Mariota, Marcus Martin, Doug McCaffrey, Christian McCarthy, Mike Michel, Sony Mixon, Joe *** P *** Parkey, Cody *** R *** Rivers, Philip *** S *** Smith-Schuster, JuJu *** T *** Tate III, Golden Thielen, Adam *** V *** Vinatieri, Adam *** W *** Williams, Damien Wilson, Russell Winston, Jameis *** AFC Team Links *** Buffalo Bills Jacksonville Jaguars Miami Dolphins New York Jets Tennessee Titans *** NFC Team Links *** Arizona Cardinals Chicago Bears Dallas Cowboys Green Bay Packers Tampa Bay Buccaneers *** Miscellaneous Links *** 2019 Dynasty Central
  21. This thread is for "cool stories" about your leagues and teams. When you feel the need to brag about your individual team, your awesome value picks, taking advantage of your league mates in lopsided trades, or whatever else strikes your fancy, this is the one and only place you can go in the fantasy football talk thread. Cool Stories posted in other threads will be removed or moved here at the discretion of the RW forums staff.
  22. NFL Waiver Wire Thread 2018 Week 17 This thread is for offering suggested waiver wire pickups for week 17 of the 2018 NFL season. It is not for the following: FAAB questions / discussions — these need to go in the FAAB Questions and Discussion thread Questions / discussions about adds/drops/trades — these belong in the Football Assistant Coach Forum Stories about your fantasy team — post these in the Cool Story, Bro! thread Team defense discussions — use the Streaming Defense thread Comments that fall into one of these categories or are otherwise not on topic for this thread will be removed. Some discussion of waiver suggetions is allowed, but this is not the place for an extended debate on the merits of any particular player. Take these in-depth discussions over to the outlook threads for the individual player(s) in question.
  23. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. - 3B TOR

    [Reluctantly stepping in here to clarify a couple of things from a site rules perspective. While this is first and foremost a forum for discussing fantasy, a discussion of a player's real-life value to the team is certainly within the bounds of discussion here. With that said, if all you're here to do is relentlessly drive home the same point about suspect defense -- a point that I don't see a lot of people here pushing back on -- there comes a time when we have to ask you to bring something new to the table or agree to disagree. There's a lot to talk about in Vlad's game, and a lot of other players to talk about. We can't have the thread repeatedly circling back to the same dynamic with the same principals arguing over the same unanswerable questions -- that's not informing or entertaining anyone.]
  24. Use of fantrax for the mock draft room is just something we tried to make things go more smoothly. It's entirely optional for the offseason mocks. If people prefer doing it on the forums because they feel it leads to a deeper discussion, go right ahead and do that. I'm away from home and not checking in as much as usual, so I won't be able to join this one either way. But if you do decide to use Fantrax, let me know and I'll set it up, or set it up yourself and make me co-commish of the league so the picks get posted to the thread. Or just post them yourselves -- there are really no rules here, guys.