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Everything posted by tonycpsu

  1. Trey Burton 2018 Season Outlook

    [ A bunch of off-topic chatter deleted. Come on, guys, please make an effort here. ]
  2. [ Guys, if we could avoid lousing up this thread with a Derrick Henry derail, that'd be super. ]
  3. 1-21-18 NFC Championship Game Vikings @ Eagles

    [ Comments removed. Look, we get that there's going to be some trash-talking of fan bases here, but when you're at the point where you're calling an entire class of people "borderline subhuman" and "animals", there is no productive discussion that's going to come from that. Make your points without the incendiary rhetoric, or go post them somewhere else. ]
  4. Randal Grichuk 2018 Outlook

    Jeff Sullivan, Fangraphs: The Depreciating Randal Grichuk "Cheap power" used to be worth worrying about if your team went average/steal/pitching heavy early in drafts. If MLB does something about the ball, maybe Grichuk's skillset will be worth paying attention to, but as things are now, "cheap power" needs to be "free power", as in, don't even worry about guys like him on draft day, as there will be plenty more. The Rogers Centre could help a bit, but the downgrade in the lineup around him is probably enough of a downgrade to keep me focused on guys with a more complete game.
  5. The MLB stove is frigid, so let's heat things up around here with another mock draft. I got a mostly positive response to the last one we did on Fantrax, so let's give that another go. The configuration for this mock will mostly be the same as for the last one. I went into detail in this thread about how things work on Fantrax in terms of position eligibility, the slow draft format, draft clock, email notifications, etc. Please read that thread before asking any questions about this mock. The first two drafts were both 12-team 5x5 standard roto, so let's switch things up this time. League Depth To give our shallow league players some love, we'll be doing a 10-team draft. For those who prefer deeper formats, I'm hoping to kick off a 15-teamer once the 10-team mock is underway. Don't PM me about that just yet -- just stay tuned, and a thread announcing it will be forthcoming. Scoring Scoring-wise, let's try 5x5 with OBP instead of AVG this time around, since that format is growing in popularity. Roster Positions Roster configuration will be the same as for the last mock, which you can read about at the top of the aforementioned Mock Draft II thread, except we'll just have one catcher per team, since that's typical of 10-team leagues (e.g. ESPN standard.) Draft Order The one thing we won't be doing this time around is the Kentucky Derby Style draw for draft position -- not enough people cared to set their preferred slot, so we'll just go with random order assigned at the start of the draft. Participants If you'd like to participate in this mock or a future one, please send me a PM -- don't reply here. It's a lot easier for me to keep track of people this way. I have the following queue of people who expressed interest previously and didn't participate in an earlier mock: @thewallsaround @turner46 @midlip These members will get first priority in this mock, followed by anyone else who PMs me in the next few days on a first-PM, first-served basis. If we don't get to 10 participants by the end of this week, I'll open things up to players from earlier mocks. Once we have a full slate plus some alternates in the queue, I'll be sending out a PM with details about how to join the league.
  6. Robby Anderson 2018 Season Outlook

    [ Derail removed. This is not the place for your Hot Takes about politics and racial issues. ]
  7. Yeah, it looks like we've just got seven so far including folks who were in the first two drafts. If we can't get to 10 or 15 now we can just table this for a couple weeks and see where we're at then.
  8. [ Several comments removed. Act like you've been there before, folks. ]
  9. Randal Grichuk 2018 Outlook

    [ A couple of comments removed. Take a deep breath and find a way to engage without attacking each other. ]
  10. RIP Roy Halladay?

    [ Let's all consider the news of Halladay's toxicology report duly noted and move on, please. ]
  11. Didi Gregorius 2018 Outlook

    When you're citing numbers that favor Cozart? All from a single season when Cozart showed things he hadn't shown for any length of time? Cozart, of course. I don't dispute your data points. I'm disputing the idea that Cozart is "safer." He's 5 years older and has a history of injuries that cause him to miss time. Didi stays on the field. I also think you have to look at the lineup context, and though the Angels have certainly improved their lineup, Didi is going to have an immense floor on his R/RBI numbers no matter where he hits, while Cozart is going to have to force his way into a better lineup spot to accumulate those stats. Right now, Roster Resource has him batting 6th, with Pujols/Calhoun ahead of him, and Simmons/Valbuena behind him. That's... not great.
  12. Didi Gregorius 2018 Outlook

    I get that Cozart showed improved plate discipline last year, but it's not like he has a long history of doing what he did in 2017. Meanwhile, Didi's 27 and has averaged 148 games played over the past 3 years, while Cozart's 32 and has only averaged 98 games played. I'll buy the ADP/value argument for Cozart, but calling him "safe" based on a one-year breakout and ignoring his history of nagging injuries seems optimistic. With that said, 113 is way too high for Didi. I'd be okay taking him in the 150 range based on the high floor that's going to come with his counting stats in a great lineup and his track record of staying on the field.
  13. 20 Second Pitch Clock

    From the Deadspin piece I linked to yesterday: "The league is planning for a 20-second pitch clock, regardless of whether or not any runners are on base, with the clock able to reset if the pitcher steps off the rubber."
  14. 20 Second Pitch Clock

    Deadspin: MLB Plans To Implement Pace-Of-Play Changes Against Players' Wishes
  15. So far I've gotten responses from two first-time 2018 drafters and three repeat customers. I'll wait a couple more days and if we don't have a full slate, I'll send some PMs out to folks from the first two drafts to fill things out.
  16. 2017-2018 Off-season and Hot Stove Thread

    Jeff Sullivan at Fangraphs agrees: Ronald Acuna for Christian Yelich Is Not a Crazy Ask
  17. Average Draft Position (ADP) 2018

    Here are a couple charts I threw together showing differences between the 2-early mocks and the NFBC ADP so far: Players above the trend line (toward the top right) are ranked higher by NFBC, below the line were ranked higher in the 2-early mocks. Can't label all the data points since the chart's a bit crowded, but notable risers are Gerrit Cole and Alex Bregman, while notable fallers are Christian Yelich and JT Realmuto (thanks, Jeets!) along with Segura, Olson, Smoak. Here are the top gainers / losers between the two ADP sources (among the top 500 in NFBC): Confirms that NFBC pushes up RPs a bit (and that closers have changed quite a bit since the 2-early mocks). Carpenter's drop is noteworthy, as he fell sharply after falling short of the 20-game requirement for 2B/3B in NFBC. Might make him a bit of a sleeper in Yahoo leagues if people are working off of ADP data that only counts him as a 1B, or in leagues where he'll start as 1B-only but gain 3B (and maybe 2B) in season.
  18. One of the more boring but consistently good first basemen in the game, Carlos takes his act to Philadelphia in 2018 on a 3-year, $20/million deal, with a team option for a 4th year at $17.5mil. In fantasy, he tends to have one of the bigger splits between his value in standard 5x5 roto vs. formats like points and OBP roto that value his walks, due to his lack of plus-plus power or stolen bases, but the move to Citizens Bank Park could help add a bit of pop. Even in standard roto, he could make for an attractive CI / Util player in 12+ team leagues. He is 32, so age/health concerns are going to factor into his ADP, but: That's a pretty high floor. And as this piece points out, his skill set is one that tends to age well. Not a great player that's going to win your league for you by himself, but he could be a valuable supporting cast member that could help offset some risks taken elsewhere.
  19. What a shameful "baseball" organization. The Marlins’ Giancarlo Stanton Trade Is a Baseball Disgrace Obviously, the Stanton contract put the owners in a tough spot, but they could have gotten legit prospects if they'd been willing to eat more of his salary. Or the investors could have, you know, invested in a team that was near the top 10 in offense by adding an arm or two in free agency. Instead, they're happy to just loot off of the taxpayers to put a product on the field that nobody will want to see for many years. I understand why the Astros and Cubs tanked -- they were at rock bottom. But the Marlins team already had the young core that you get after three years of tanking. Yeah, they were going to have to spend, but what if you tank for three years and don't get lucky enough to get a Altuve/Correa/Springer or Bryant/Rizzo/Contreras convergence of talent? Just a baffling set of moves that make Loria look like George Steinbrenner by comparison. Fantasy-wise: tough times who owns any of the players they don't sell off. Ozuna, Realmuto, Bour... All distressed assets now to say the least. As bad as what the Marlins owners are doing is for real baseball, fantasy owners of those guys are probably hoping they go full 76ers and sell off anything that's not nailed down.
  20. The two-way player issue...

    [ Guys, there's a platform thread dedicated to discussing the merits of each platform, which I would encourage you to take your comments over to if it's not primarily about how platforms are handling two-way players, but a more general comment about how the platforms treat their users, or which one is better for dynasty leagues. ]
  21. 2017-2018 Off-season and Hot Stove Thread

    The new ownership bought the old ownership's distressed asset. They assumed liability for those old mistakes when they purchased the team. They weren't born with a god-given right to own a baseball team. That was their choice. The fans have every right to expect more from new owners.
  22. 2017-2018 Off-season and Hot Stove Thread

    Not all rebuilds are created equal. If you flip your best pieces for fair market value to improve the team, that's one thing, but look at the Gordon, Stanton, and Ozuna deals. All of them were skewed toward dumping salary, not getting back players for the future. There were other offers out there for Stanton that could have gotten them better prospects but they took the option that helped the investors. The thing about the Astros and other rebuilds is the fans hadn't already gone through decades of being jerked around by ownership and having their best pieces given away for pennies on the dollar. Shedding Stanton's contract means people don't show up to watch Stanton, which means less revenue. Giving it a go with the young core they already had could have injected some much-needed energy into the fan base and given them a reason to "trust the process", so to speak. Why would any Marlins fan trust this ownership group now?
  23. Zack Cozart 2018 Outlook

    What's the supporting data you're leaning on here? This Fangraphs piece isn't very bullish: The bar isn't very high for SS, so he could be playable, but even with a good offense around him, I expect him to be kind of a JAG. Even if he keeps the improved plate discipline and exit velo bump, the park, his injury history, and father time will be working against him. Not a target by any means for me.
  24. Well, we've done two 12-teamers already, and like I said, we'll have a 15-teamer coming up, so there are plenty of opportunities for those who play in deeper formats. Read the BC forum and you'll see plenty of posts from people in 10-team leagues or shallower.
  25. Using Spreadsheets WHIR WHIR

    I've moved on from using Excel, but when I used it, I just loaded projections and calculated expected z-scores for the players. I had a bunch of conditional formatting stuff to color-code positions, and to highlight guys who stood out in certain categories. This is what the main player pool page looked like from my 2015 dynasty league: It's kind of a mess, but you can see the pattern. SPs in blue, 1Bs in bright red, OF in dark red, 2B in yellow, etc. A bit hard to read the stat column headings but they're there. On another tab I pulled data in from the player pool to show rosters using the same color coding for positions: It all got way too annoying to manage with all of Excel's quirks and general slowness, so I moved on to a more involved setup with a database and a lot of tools for querying it. But as long as you're not trying to load too big of a player pool or keep track of too many things, Excel should be okay. There's a guy out there putting out a free cheat sheet each year that looks a lot more polished than mine: I've never used it, but if you don't want to do all the Excel hacking to make something like that work, it seems useful.