tonycpsu

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Everything posted by tonycpsu

  1. 2018 Completed Trades Thread

    12-team 5x5 (OBP) dynasty. Gave: Luis Castillo Got: Marcell Ozuna
  2. 2017 was another solid, if unspectacular season from The Shark. SP32 according to the ESPN player rater in 2017 after being SP38 in 2016, with a "meh" 4.42 ERA despite a cool 1.14 WHIP. Owners like myself were probably waiting all season for his ERA to trend closer to his ~3.6 FIP/xFIP, but that never materialized. Still, SP32 was a nice return for a guy who went at 165 (42nd SP) in drafts. He's not an elite strikeout pitcher, but he added a little more swing and miss to his game last year with an 8.88 K/9. That might come down, or maybe it's his new normal in an era when hitters are swinging for the downs and not afraid of high K-rates if some balls leave the yard. Either way, I see him as a strong buy for 2018. Here is a chart I made of the ADP tiers from the 2-early industry mocks, where Shark is going 158th overall: The names in the 6th SP tier there are a whole lot of of upside plays (McCullers, Castillo, Bauer, Bundy). I don't blame anyone for wanting those guys as their SP3/4 instead of a boring low floor guy like Samardzija, but I think there's a *lot* of room for profit. I'd certainly take Shark over anyone else in that tier except McCullers, Cstillo, and maybe Bauer, and I think I like him a lot more than guys in the next tier like Jon Gray, Price, and Hendricks. Here's another chart, this one showing ADP compared to the weighted sum of their ESPN player rater rankings from 2016 and 2017, with 2017 weighted double as compared to 2016: Guys toward the upper right of the graph are "undervalued" if you believe in their 2016 and 2017 production, while guys toward the bottom left are being overdrafted based on what they gave you the last two years. Samardzija shows up in the reddish-orange group above the line, near guys like Iglesias (not directly comparable because he was an RP), Pomeranz, Maeda, Tanaka, Roark, and Chase Anderson (the unlabeled point near Roark.) None of those guys are winning leagues for you, and neither is Samardzija, but if you went with upside gambles in your early SP picks, or if you passed on SP entirely in the early rounds and want a high floor, Shark seems like a great target. Especially with all the talk of teams benching their starters after a couple of times through the order, a guy who goes out there and gives you 200+ quality innings with a plus WHIP and makes meaningful K contributions is going to be huge in 2018. The team isn't going to win a lot, but he's going to have a lot more chances to get wins than a lot of guys ahead of him in the rankings who will be getting yanked after 5 innings. Innings matter, people! I expect to be taking Samardzija at least a round or two earlier than he was going in industry drafts, and I think he deserves consideration as a top 30 SP for teams that took risks elsewhere.
  3. Kris Bryant 2018 Outlook

    He only has 48 total batted ball events on the season so far. It takes much longer than a few weeks before we can draw any meaningful conclusions from these numbers.
  4. Jhailyn Ortiz OF Phi

    Rookie league is just a lower classification -- generally younger players and guys who need more seasoning before they can handle A ball.
  5. Trading for Kingery

    I already said this in a different Kingery BC thread yesterday, but I would caution you against trying to beat the clock here unless the Kingery owner is a novice player. He's going to get a lot of eligibility, and pretty much everyone knows it. Meanwhile, he's hitting well and hasn't really hit any major slumps or had to face adjustments from pitchers. I'd wait a couple/three weeks to see if he struggles a bit to see if you can deal for him at a reduced cost. There's risk here, but I just don't know anyone in my leagues who wouldn't be aware of his eligibility situation.
  6. I have no clue how he was only 10% owned on Yahoo heading into today. The roadblocks to playing time have disappeared, and he mashed in a small sample last season. The K% is pretty gross, but legit power in that ballpark and division could lead to season-changing HR totals before regression to the mean sets in, and he could be a SB threat if they let him run.
  7. 2018 "Cool Story, Bro!" Thread

    [ Several removed. Guys, the bar is pretty low for meaningful contributions to this thread, but there *is* a bar. ]
  8. Trevor Story 2018 Outlook

    [ Guys, less (read: zero) talk about other people in the thread who disagree with your outlook on Story, more talk about your outlook on Story. ]
  9. Scott Kingery 2018 Outlook

    Come on, man.
  10. Scott Kingery 2018 Outlook

    Matchups. Sam Freeman (LHP) was pitching, and in a tie game with a bat like Kingery available on the bench, you have to make that move.
  11. Scott Kingery 2018 Outlook

    Crawford's actually turned things on in the last week or so, and someone in his outlook thead linked to a story about him changing his hitting approach. It remains to be seen if the gains stick, but he's .389//450/.833 in the last week week or so. And he's got a really long leash because of his plus defense.
  12. Scott Kingery 2018 Outlook

    Gabe Kapler does not come off as a guy who's going to be conflate Franco's RBI production and his skill as a hitter. If Franco's going to keep his playing time from dwindling, he's going to need to improve his AVG and OBP. The plate discipline and contact numbers look the same, which isn't good enough to remain an everyday player in a Phillies lineup with this many options.
  13. Ivan Nova 2018 Outlook

    OK, you should make that clear when you're talking about rankings, then. Definitely a different kettle of fish when you're talking about points leagues and starting pitchers.
  14. Jhailyn Ortiz OF Phi

    Yeah, the abbreviations can be a bit confusing. "A-" is "Short Season A". "A" is "Low A" or just "Class A". "A+"is "High A" or "Class A Advanced." I really wish MLB had just kept/repurposed the original designations of Class A, B, C, D, etc. so it wouldn't be so complicated.
  15. Ivan Nova 2018 Outlook

    In what format? My Yahoo 5x5 roto league has him at 353.
  16. Good time to start a 2018 thread, as the Marlins fire sale continues, with Yelich as the beneficiary. The early ADP numbers suggest he was getting valued at 15-20 before the trade -- he was OF17 in the 2-early mocks, but had slipped to 20 in NFBC after the Gordon/Stanton/Ozuna deals. Now he goes from one of the worst parks for left-handed power to one of the best. We saw how that worked out for Travis Shaw, and with the improved lineup situation, I have to think this vaults Yelich into the back-end top 10 conversation. Before the deal, Fangraphs Depth Charts projections have him at .293/.377/.463 with 18 HR, 72 RBI, 86 R, and 12 SB. I'll be interested to see what the change in scenery does to those projections, but the R will certainly be in triple digits, and RBI should easily get past 90. And given that he's got a career 18/41 home/away split on his home runs, I feel like the HR upside could be into the 30s. Just doubling his away homers from last year gets him to 22, and considering Miller Park's a lot more friendly for lefty homers than the average MLB park... Yeah, 25 should be doable. The draft hype is going to be insane. Congrats if you dealt for him in dynasty before this news broke!
  17. Patrick Corbin 2018 Outlook

    Really impressive what he's been able to do as he's distanced himself from his surgery. Last year he seemed to have strikeout stuff but always seemed to find a way to lose batters and get himself into jams. Now he's attacking them, putting them in unfavorable counts, and mowing them down or inducing weak contact. Hasn't faced the toughest competition, but he's done what he's needed to do. Padres offense is no pushover these days, so hopefully he can keep things rolling.
  18. Mar/April Closer Thread 2018

    Holland helping Norris owners out by issuing a leadoff walk and serving up a Baez dong to create a save situation.
  19. Tyler Chatwood 2018 Outlook

    Easy cut in 12-team mixed and shallower. If he suddenly finds control after years of not having much of any, you tip your cap to the owner who had the stones to run him out there against the Tribe next week.
  20. Anthony Rizzo 2018 Outlook

    [ Several removed. Rizzo's comments about shortening the MLB season are irrelevant to his fantasy outlook, and discussion of them does not belong here. ]
  21. Bauer for Kingery?

    I've been mulling making the same two offers to get Kingery in my 10-team dynasty league. From my conversations so far with the Kingery owner, it seems like Bauer might get it done, while he's more wait and see on Corbin. I just haven't been willing to pull the trigger yet on either. The thing that has me concerned on Kingery is that he hasn't gone through the process of pitchers adjusting to him and him adjusting to their adjustments yet. When that time comes, and it almost always does for young hitters, he's going to have to try to hit his way out of it, and the Phillies situation where they're mixing and matching lineups so much doesn't seem like an ideal environment for him to get into a rhythm. The other thing is that Bauer's got a favorable matchup against the Os coming up, so his stock could go even higher. He could also get lit up or blow out his arm, but in my experience people are willing to pay pretty dearly for SP2/3 types that are showing back-end SP1 upside, and Kingery just doesn't have a long enough track record for me to value him as a top 60-80ish player that I'd want back from a Bauer trade. I'd also caution you against thinking you need to beat the eligibility clock -- the Kingery owner in any competitive league knows he's racking up starts all over the place and will soon have Marwin-ish eligibility. I don't think you're fooling anyone by making offers before that happens. For now I'm standing pat -- I understand the hype, but I'm just not there yet without seeing a bit more from him on the basepaths and at the plate.
  22. Matt Carpenter 2018 Outlook

    I don't put a lot of trust in any of those 2018 metrics in such a small sample, but the price could be so low that it's worth rolling the dice. I thought he was a great buy low last year and bought him everywhere at a very reduced price, only to learn after the season was over that he was playing through a significant shoulder ailment. With the back and shoulder both questionable at this point, the price would have to be significantly below his draft day price for me to want to buy in again.