tonycpsu

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Everything posted by tonycpsu

  1. [Hey, let's keep the discussion in here to actionable updates on Ramirez's status, not venting and ranting, which needs to go here.]
  2. Post completed deals in your league here for the benefit of others, or just to see how you did. Posts about completed trades in the Baseball Talk forum may be moved here. I'll start with a few of my offseason dynasty moves: 12 Team 5x5 OBP Gave Luke Voit and Joey Wendle Got CJ Cron and Domingo Santana Was nervous about Voit sharing time with Bird, and very high on Santana to break out this season. I'm not going to judge it on one game, but early returns on this one are good. 10 Team 5x5 Standard Gave Jesus Aguilar Got Nick Pivetta Aguilar is a popular bust choice, but this was more about liking Pivetta and having too many top 1B on my roster than it was about not liking Aguilar. Gave Shane Bieber Got Andrew McCutchen A rebuilding team needed a young upside arm, and I'm a Phillies fan who needed some OF depth.
  3. Let's continue the discussion upstairs, y'all.
  4. Yes. If you want to discuss other stuff in off topic, go ahead and create a thread there.
  5. Hi, and welcome to the forums, @Papaito . This is the Football League Finder Forum. If you'd like to invite folks to your baseball league, please go here: http://forums.rotoworld.com/forum/15-baseball-league-finder-service/ Also, please don't spam that forum with multiple consecutive posts as you've done here. Thanks.
  6. [Several removed. Let's keep this thread focused on Trout's contract and fantasy outlook, not dunking on other members for their cold takes.]
  7. I assume that's NFBC ADP, since FantasyPros has him at 124. I feel like the SB upside makes either of those prices pretty attractive. You're obviously paying for production he's never shown before, but even using Steamer projections which are notoriously conservative, he comes in as around the 80th overall bat, which is right in line with FantasyPros' ADP, and THE BAT projections have him as a top 50 hitter. Obviously there's bust potential, but when I'm in the 9th / 10th round and I haven't taken a lot of risks early on, this is the kind of guy I go for.
  8. Playing in public leagues means dealing with the public, and the public, as a general rule, sucks. I don't think any amount of platform changes is going to stop that. People are always going to vote in their own best interest. Being forced to write a justification isn't going to change that. Better to find some leagues without a voting system, or just play in no-trade leagues if you can't.
  9. A ticking time bomb that's been ticking for like five years. At some point if a guy can beat the ERA estimators and other "skill" metrics for like 500+ innings, perhaps there are some skills that we just don't have the capacity to measure yet.
  10. [We're pretty far afield from Upton's fantasy outlook with this tangent about how "streakiness" affects a player's value in particular formats. If y'all want to continue that conversation, it needs to occur elsewhere, either in a new topic for that purpose, or perhaps here.]
  11. I like everything in there except for the three batter minimum. Contracting September rosters to 28 is a particularly notable change for fantasy. Always stinks when your players are sitting because the team's coasting into the playoffs and letting a bunch of call-ups play.
  12. [Sorry, @ledzep89, this sort of very team and format specific advice needs to go in the BC forum as well.]
  13. He had wrist surgery prior to 2017, I think? That could explain his lower power output in 2017 and, perhaps some of the improvement in 2018. His 48.6% hard hit rate was 2nd to Matt Carpenter. If he's finally healthy, maybe he can maintain at least some of that. The team context stinks, and it's possible the AVG could nosedive if he's exposed to more LHP without as many other useful bats around him, so I actually don't like him at his current FantasyPros consensus ADP of 132. But if he were there a round or two later, I think I'd give him a shot.
  14. Everything you cited above is intended to create more runs, yes? wSB is not the number of runs directly created by stolen bases, but an attempt to quantify the increased run production associated with a player's ability to steal bases. You can disagree with the numbers assigned to the value of SB (and the negative value of CS), but they were arrived at via careful analysis of the total impact of SB on run production, which includes all of the factors you've cited.
  15. You said real-life value. If you don't see the correlation between scoring runs and real-life value, I'm not sure any productive conversation is possible here.
  16. In a world where the league leading WRAA is nearly 15 times the league leading wSB.
  17. Full story with more context: MLB’s experimental rules for minor league to include longer pitching distance, no mound visits, ‘robo-umps’ I'm in favor of some of these proposals and against others, but no matter what you think of each individual proposal, there is no justification at all for trying them all at once, which is akin to giving a laboratory mouse 10 different experimental medications and seeing what happens. Whatever "analysis" comes out of this is going to be tainted. If you're trying to measure impact on game times, I see at least four of them that have an effect on that. How do you isolate the effectiveness of each? Or how do you measure the impact on pitchers of moving the mound back when they're pitching with different defensive alignments behind them than they did last year? A cynic might conclude that they're doing all of this just to ensure that it fails so they can tell people clamoring for real changes that they tried.
  18. Ben Lindbergh and Rob Arthur,The Ringer: Our Deep Dive Into 73,000 Never-Before-Seen MLB Scouting Reports A fascinating peek behind the curtain in three lengthy parts.
  19. No one projection system does significantly better than the others year-over-year. ATC and THE BAT have only been around for a couple of years, at least on Fangraphs, so I don't think there's a large enough sample to say one way or another that they're the best. ZIPS is pretty widely regarded as behind the curve compared to the others at this point, but otherwise, you're probably fine with any of the others. Here are a couple of recent comparisons using different methodologies: https://fantasy.fangraphs.com/2018-projection-systems-comparison-a-game-theory-approach/ https://www.getbigboard.com/harper-wallbanger/evaluating-2018-projections The "Big Board Mix" is just taking a bunch of the projection systems and throwing them together. I don't know enough about it to know whether the "mix" was predetermined at the start of the season or reverse-engineered for the best possible outcome after the season was over -- seems like it might be the latter, in which case, not very useful.
  20. Depending on the study, the numbers I recall are something like only 10-15% of the variation in team save opportunities can be explained by team win/loss record, with run differential and other measures being even less predictive. All else being equal, you take the guy on the better team, but all else is rarely equal, especially with so few dedicated closers out there.
  21. On the hitting side, I like Murphy, Cruz, Edwin, Cutch at their current ADPs. Not as many great values among older arms, but I do like Arrieta, Price, Morton, and Happ. There are so many older guys with lots of profit to be had where they're going right now. You don't want too many of them on your team, but like every year, it seems like so many are pushing them down draft boards to make room for young boom/bust breakouts, so you have to get at least 2-3 of your guys on your roster.
  22. If the location is good, a straight fastball can be a nice weapon to counteract the uppercut swing that a lot of batters are using to increase their fly ball rates and hit more homers. Usually you want to elevate more than he did there, but that pitch was a little bit high and really close to the outside corner, which is the kind of pitch that you *definitely* don't want sinking/tailing back into the heart of the zone. He's shown the ability to locate his FB pretty well. If he's dialing it up there at 99 and not catching much of the zone, I'm fine with it not having a ton of movement.
  23. I think at this point he is what he is. A player who hits 15 then 10 can certainly crack 20 in an outlier year, but I don't want him changing his swing if it's going to lead to a decline in average. My hope is just that he retains the rare combination of plus AVG and 25-30 SB with strong counting stats. He certainly doesn't need to hit 20+ HR to justify his cost, but he's not exactly going at a discount, either.