mjb03003

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mjb03003 last won the day on January 6 2016

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About mjb03003

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  1. Something to consider about Meredith though - his strength is his route running, and he took his game to new heights at the end of the year when he was moving all over the field, including lots of routes run out of the slot. If you're able/willing to move a WR around to get him in specific matchups, it's much harder for defenses to employ a double team and/or "take him away" with a single shutdown corner.
  2. The fact that we're even comparing Alshon Jeffery, a consensus top 10-15 WR in fantasy/dynasty for the past couple of years, to a former QB turned WR who come out of nowhere, is telling. I haven't seen a lot of this "down on Jeffery" sentiment, and I don't think anyone is saying Meredith is better than Jeffery. But from a fantasy perspective, when it comes to the Chicago Bears 2017 outlook, there is likely no bigger story than if Jeffery stays or goes, and who else the Bears bring in at WR.
  3. I kind of addressed some of that in the post. He put up good numbers with multiple retreads at QB. First emerged with Hoyer under center, then had another impressive run with Barkley at QB. I have heard some rumors swirling about Garrapolo going to Chicago...that would seem like a pretty good thing for Meredith's future prospects. I haven't heard much about the likelihood of Alshon returning, but Meredith was plenty productive with him there, so worst case he returns to the role he was very successful in in 2016 if Alshon returns. I believe Alshon is the biggest name WR available (or the only guy who would be a clear #1 in almost any offense he lands in), and likely to be highly coveted, so there seems to be a pretty good chance Meredith's situation improves if/when Alshon leaves. There's a number of interesting WRs in this year's draft, and the Bears could certainly go that route (especially if Alshon departs), but Meredith would have a head start on all of them thanks to his experience with the team, in the system.
  4. Cameron Meredith going to ascend to the Bears WR1 in 2017? PFF giving him high marks for route running, and he had as many WR1 weeks as Dez in 2016 (5) despite not fully emerging until about week 5 and dealing with a lot of inconsistency at QB. In games where he had at least 6 targets, Meredith put up the following lines: 9 receptions (12 targets), 130 yards, 1 TD 11 receptions (15 targets), 113 yards 2 receptions (9 targets), 19 yards 6 receptions (8 targets) 72 yards, 1 TD 9 receptions (13 targets) 104 yards 9 receptions (12 targets) 135 yards, 1 TD 4 receptions (6 targets) 61 yards for an average of... 7.1 receptions (10.7 targets), 90.4 yards, 0.4 TDs This is clearly cherry-picking his best games, and he's obviously he's highly unlikely to average 10.7 targets per game. What's crazy is that even if you keep in his many games where he was barely targeted (7 games with 4 or fewer targets, including 4 games with 2 or fewer), his season average in 2016 was: 4.7 receptions (6.9 targets), 63.4 yards per game, which comes out to 75 catches for 1,014 yards in a full 16 game season (Meredith only played 14 games in 2016). You could make the case that without ANY growth or change in role, Cameron Meredith could approach a 75/1000 season in 2017. Now consider that Alshon Jeffery may sign elsewhere in free agency, and without him, Meredith is the closest thing the Bears have to a proven receiver. He's also gotten extremely high marks for his route running from PFF, and the Bears have spoken highly of his development as a receiver. If you project some growth out of Meredith in terms of total targets or target share and split the difference between Meredith's season averages from last year and his averages in games where he had at least 6 targets, you come out to something like this: 5.9 receptions (8.8 targets), 76.9 yards per game, which come out to 94 catches, 141 targets, 1230 yards. LOFTY numbers no doubt, but unless/until the Bears bring Alshon back or bring in another "top dog" WR, I don't think they are completely outside of the realm of possibility for Cameron Meredith in 2017.
  5. This one seems so obvious on paper. Hue Jackson and the Browns want to avoid a 0-16 season badly. Buffalo has been getting gashed on the ground. Game is in Buffalo where it figures to be bitterly cold and there's always a threat of snow. Feed the Crow! If Crow gets 15 carries I'm confident he puts up RB2 numbers. If Crow gets 20 carries I'm confident he puts up RB1 numbers. The trouble is he hasn't gotten 20 carries in a game yet this season, and even committing to 15 has been a challenge for the this offense. Hopefully the Bills offense isn't good enough to pile up points and put Cleveland in come from behind mode early.
  6. As others have pointed out, it's the prospect of getting passing and rushing stats in addition to his regular receiving stats that makes Pryor so damn appealing. If they are manufacturing touches for him and installing packages of plays for him as the QB, and you can play him at WR3 or flex...man...that's going to be undeniable upside. What is unfortunate is that I don't believe the coaching staff would have any incentive to tip their hand about whether the Pryor at QB stuff will continue, or how much it will be used going forward. We'll just have to wait and see...
  7. I'm hopeful that the Vikings will slowly but surely transform their offense to account for the fact that their all-world, first ballot HOF RB is gone. Running up the middle on first and second downs isn't going to get it done. I really hope for McKinnon's sake they don't simply shoehorn him into AP's role, as that would almost certainly fail, and then we'll all have to listen to the anti-McKinnon crowd talk about what a bust he is.
  8. I don't know what he could possibly do to get more credit/appreciation from the fantasy community. His streak of 80+ yards and/or a TD is getting ridiculous. I think the high floor, low ceiling label was understandable last year, when he only had a single 100+ yard game and only topped 80 yards five times. But what people forget is that Decker played through a knee injury most of last season. He injured his PCL in week 2, missed week 3, and then was on the injury report for the rest of the season with that same knee ailment. This year he's fully healthy (knock on wood), and there's another interesting development that I think raises his week-to-week ceiling... Eric Decker said he would like to be used more downfield this season. "It's nice to be able to work on some chunk throws down the field because I think that part of the game is going to have to open up this year for me a little bit," Decker said. "I love being able to get down the field and being able to play outside a little bit." Decker had the second-lowest yard-per-reception average of his career last season (12.8) and had just nine catches on passes which traveled more than 20 yards. A solid deep threat at times in Denver, Decker should be asked to get downfield more this season. If last night was any indication, he's getting his wish. As others have pointed out, he had a 53 yard bomb called back because of holding, and he had chunk gains of 24, 18, 17, 35, and 27 yards last night. He's playing more on the outside, and Fitzpatrick isn't afraid to throw it up and let him make big plays. Decker already has 4 catches of 20+ yards this season after catching only 9 all of last year. That being said, Decker is still getting snaps in the slot, where he's just lethal at finding soft spots in coverage over the middle of the field.
  9. Sticking with Marty B this week. It's going to take more than 1 week where he was used almost exclusively as a blocker to make me lose faith.
  10. Guys and gals, it's a long season. The Titans want to pound the run, and it would be foolish for Murray to get 75-80% of the carries when that would clearly wear him down. Even if they start out with the workload heavily in Murray's favor, he will get nicked up at some point (he's not exactly an ironman, and every RB has bumps and bruises...) and the Titans will smartly ease his workload since they have arguably the best backup RB in the league. Henry will look positively unstoppable in some games and EARN additional carries. Mularkey can refrain from calling it the "hot hand approach" if he likes, but when every game counts and Mularkey is coaching for his job, he will do whatever yields results on the field. I am not betting on Henry getting more carries than Murray this season. What I am betting on is that this team will look to run the ball 400+ times this year, meaning that even with a 65/35 split in favor of Murray (which I think would be extreme given Henry's undeniable talent), Henry will approach 150 carries this year, which is nearly 10 per game. I'm thinking 8-12 carries is a fair expectation on a weekly basis, and it's possible he will get his number called on the goal line as well. My conservative estimate for Henry is something like this: 150 carries, 675 rushing yards, 6 TDs. A less conservative estimate, either accounting for a minor Murray injury at some point in the season, or Henry simply earning more carries through his on field performance, would look something like this: 180 carries, 800 rushing yards, 8 TDs. That projection still gives Murray a roughly 55/45 split of the workload, assuming 400 carries. If you believe Murray will have a great year, I won't even argue that. The offense is built around the run and Murray has looked great in preseason. However I don't believe that precludes Henry from having a very solid year himself, and being a solid flex option to borderline RB2. And of course, there's the possibility (however unlikely) that Murray looks washed up once the games count, like he did last year, and Henry seizes majority control of the backfield.
  11. This is a great point. Once Charles gets back to full health, you will be very happy you have him. Better that he take an extra week (or two, or three, I'm willing to be patient...) to start the year than during your fantasy playoffs. Not saying there's no chance of him getting hurt down the road, just stating that most RBs will miss a game or two throughout the season and it doesn't change the fact that they are a critical part of your team and you chances to win your league.
  12. I agree with this. The reports on Bell's health have been glowing, so you could definitely argue that once his suspension is over you can expect heavy workloads and elite production right away, while that is less of a certainty with Charles. But for all we know Charles could end up not missing any games at all, and could be "all systems go" before Bell is back on the field. Everyone who drafted him should have been fully aware of the fact that Charles was returning from an ACL tear. His draft price already factored in that he could start the season slowly. Judging by the reactions in here, it's like some people were expecting nothing less than dominance for a full 16 games. He's now falling down draft boards quickly based on speculation from a beat writer that he might not get a heavy workload week 1. Meanwhile Bell has been rising up draft boards in spite of the fact that we KNOW he will miss 3 full games.
  13. If you drafted Charles a week or two ago before these reports started emerging, all you can do is stay optimistic and hope that the Chiefs have a plan in place to bring Charles along slowly and only deploy him once he's ready to be the lead back again. Hopefully most of you who landed Charles were able to grab Ware before his price rose 5-6 rounds. It's going to be a lot more difficult to draft Charles now, knowing that you also have to spend a premium pick on his backup/handcuff. Remember that the Chiefs see themselves as a playoff team. They are not going to rush Charles back into a heavy workload when they don't need to. Spencer Ware has been pushing for a role even with Charles healthy because he is an absolute HAMMER between the tackles and on the goal line. Having said that, unless he suffers a setback (or already has), Charles might be stronger in the second half of the season as a result of taking it slow in his return to the field, and limiting the wear and tear on his legs early in the season. Even if Ware cuts into his carries some, this is not a guy who NEEDS 20 carries a game to do major damage for fantasy owners. Alex Smith will still check it down to him like crazy (PPR!!) and he still has speed and elusiveness that most backs can only dream of.
  14. Doubt Jamaal Charles at your own peril. That is all.
  15. I like the confidence and swagger that Landry plays with. He's not quite OBJ (his former college teammate) out there, but there are some similarities in their demeanor.