mjb03003

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mjb03003 last won the day on January 6 2016

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About mjb03003

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  1. Is anyone putting any stock in his ridiculous ST numbers? 18.2 IP, 0 ER, 6 H, 3 BB, 22 Ks. That's a 0.00 ERA, 0.48 WHIP, and a ~10.9 K/9. I know it's just spring training, but it's hard not to be impressed. He finished last season strong as well, with a 2.83 ERA and 1.03 WHIP post-ASB, and a little uptick in his K-rate to boot. The constant fear of injury keeps this guy's price pretty low, but his innings have increased every year, and after logging 199.2 IP last year and getting stronger as the year went along, it seems like he's healthy.
  2. I read that he's moving to the 2 hole (he mostly hit leadoff last year), which I think should help his RBI totals slightly. He's also got Machado hitting behind him, which is pretty elite "lineup protection" if you believe in that sort of thing. I got him at the 7/8 turn in a 12 teamer last night (start 5 OF). I'll take that all day.
  3. I think he's plenty motivated. He wants to be David Ortiz 2.0 for this club. http://www.bostonherald.com/sports/red_sox/clubhouse_insider/2017/02/hanley_ramirez_wants_to_lead_by_david_ortiz_example
  4. Not sure this is necessarily bad news, since most RBs struggle to maintain health on a 400+ touch pace. Miller was underused (but highly efficient) in Miami, and probably overused (and efficiency suffered) in Houston. The middle ground would probably keep him healthier and more efficient than he was last year. If the offense (QB play) can avoid being laughably bad, Miller should still be plenty productive.
  5. I know it's the Browns so anything is possible, but I have a hard time seeing them not fielding a more competitive team in 2017. They have the #1 and #12 overall picks, which should either bring them two immediate impact players, or get traded for at least two immediate impact players. They are almost certain to address their QB situation, either by drafting a new starter or bringing in a veteran. They are almost certain to address their O-line, which crumbled and became a big liability last season. I'm less sure than I used to be that Terrelle Pryor re-signs, but my gut says he will in the end. Corey Coleman missed a big chunk of last year, but showed that he can be a weapon, even without good QB play. If they're both on the roster and healthy, defenses will be forced to pay attention to them. I think Crowell's arrow is pointing straight up as long as they don't draft a RB early in the draft (would be foolish) or bring in a veteran (more likely, but still why??) to compete for lead back duties.
  6. Something to consider about Meredith though - his strength is his route running, and he took his game to new heights at the end of the year when he was moving all over the field, including lots of routes run out of the slot. If you're able/willing to move a WR around to get him in specific matchups, it's much harder for defenses to employ a double team and/or "take him away" with a single shutdown corner.
  7. The fact that we're even comparing Alshon Jeffery, a consensus top 10-15 WR in fantasy/dynasty for the past couple of years, to a former QB turned WR who come out of nowhere, is telling. I haven't seen a lot of this "down on Jeffery" sentiment, and I don't think anyone is saying Meredith is better than Jeffery. But from a fantasy perspective, when it comes to the Chicago Bears 2017 outlook, there is likely no bigger story than if Jeffery stays or goes, and who else the Bears bring in at WR.
  8. I kind of addressed some of that in the post. He put up good numbers with multiple retreads at QB. First emerged with Hoyer under center, then had another impressive run with Barkley at QB. I have heard some rumors swirling about Garrapolo going to Chicago...that would seem like a pretty good thing for Meredith's future prospects. I haven't heard much about the likelihood of Alshon returning, but Meredith was plenty productive with him there, so worst case he returns to the role he was very successful in in 2016 if Alshon returns. I believe Alshon is the biggest name WR available (or the only guy who would be a clear #1 in almost any offense he lands in), and likely to be highly coveted, so there seems to be a pretty good chance Meredith's situation improves if/when Alshon leaves. There's a number of interesting WRs in this year's draft, and the Bears could certainly go that route (especially if Alshon departs), but Meredith would have a head start on all of them thanks to his experience with the team, in the system.
  9. Cameron Meredith going to ascend to the Bears WR1 in 2017? PFF giving him high marks for route running, and he had as many WR1 weeks as Dez in 2016 (5) despite not fully emerging until about week 5 and dealing with a lot of inconsistency at QB. In games where he had at least 6 targets, Meredith put up the following lines: 9 receptions (12 targets), 130 yards, 1 TD 11 receptions (15 targets), 113 yards 2 receptions (9 targets), 19 yards 6 receptions (8 targets) 72 yards, 1 TD 9 receptions (13 targets) 104 yards 9 receptions (12 targets) 135 yards, 1 TD 4 receptions (6 targets) 61 yards for an average of... 7.1 receptions (10.7 targets), 90.4 yards, 0.4 TDs This is clearly cherry-picking his best games, and he's obviously he's highly unlikely to average 10.7 targets per game. What's crazy is that even if you keep in his many games where he was barely targeted (7 games with 4 or fewer targets, including 4 games with 2 or fewer), his season average in 2016 was: 4.7 receptions (6.9 targets), 63.4 yards per game, which comes out to 75 catches for 1,014 yards in a full 16 game season (Meredith only played 14 games in 2016). You could make the case that without ANY growth or change in role, Cameron Meredith could approach a 75/1000 season in 2017. Now consider that Alshon Jeffery may sign elsewhere in free agency, and without him, Meredith is the closest thing the Bears have to a proven receiver. He's also gotten extremely high marks for his route running from PFF, and the Bears have spoken highly of his development as a receiver. If you project some growth out of Meredith in terms of total targets or target share and split the difference between Meredith's season averages from last year and his averages in games where he had at least 6 targets, you come out to something like this: 5.9 receptions (8.8 targets), 76.9 yards per game, which come out to 94 catches, 141 targets, 1230 yards. LOFTY numbers no doubt, but unless/until the Bears bring Alshon back or bring in another "top dog" WR, I don't think they are completely outside of the realm of possibility for Cameron Meredith in 2017.
  10. This one seems so obvious on paper. Hue Jackson and the Browns want to avoid a 0-16 season badly. Buffalo has been getting gashed on the ground. Game is in Buffalo where it figures to be bitterly cold and there's always a threat of snow. Feed the Crow! If Crow gets 15 carries I'm confident he puts up RB2 numbers. If Crow gets 20 carries I'm confident he puts up RB1 numbers. The trouble is he hasn't gotten 20 carries in a game yet this season, and even committing to 15 has been a challenge for the this offense. Hopefully the Bills offense isn't good enough to pile up points and put Cleveland in come from behind mode early.
  11. As others have pointed out, it's the prospect of getting passing and rushing stats in addition to his regular receiving stats that makes Pryor so damn appealing. If they are manufacturing touches for him and installing packages of plays for him as the QB, and you can play him at WR3 or flex...man...that's going to be undeniable upside. What is unfortunate is that I don't believe the coaching staff would have any incentive to tip their hand about whether the Pryor at QB stuff will continue, or how much it will be used going forward. We'll just have to wait and see...
  12. I'm hopeful that the Vikings will slowly but surely transform their offense to account for the fact that their all-world, first ballot HOF RB is gone. Running up the middle on first and second downs isn't going to get it done. I really hope for McKinnon's sake they don't simply shoehorn him into AP's role, as that would almost certainly fail, and then we'll all have to listen to the anti-McKinnon crowd talk about what a bust he is.
  13. I don't know what he could possibly do to get more credit/appreciation from the fantasy community. His streak of 80+ yards and/or a TD is getting ridiculous. I think the high floor, low ceiling label was understandable last year, when he only had a single 100+ yard game and only topped 80 yards five times. But what people forget is that Decker played through a knee injury most of last season. He injured his PCL in week 2, missed week 3, and then was on the injury report for the rest of the season with that same knee ailment. This year he's fully healthy (knock on wood), and there's another interesting development that I think raises his week-to-week ceiling... Eric Decker said he would like to be used more downfield this season. "It's nice to be able to work on some chunk throws down the field because I think that part of the game is going to have to open up this year for me a little bit," Decker said. "I love being able to get down the field and being able to play outside a little bit." Decker had the second-lowest yard-per-reception average of his career last season (12.8) and had just nine catches on passes which traveled more than 20 yards. A solid deep threat at times in Denver, Decker should be asked to get downfield more this season. If last night was any indication, he's getting his wish. As others have pointed out, he had a 53 yard bomb called back because of holding, and he had chunk gains of 24, 18, 17, 35, and 27 yards last night. He's playing more on the outside, and Fitzpatrick isn't afraid to throw it up and let him make big plays. Decker already has 4 catches of 20+ yards this season after catching only 9 all of last year. That being said, Decker is still getting snaps in the slot, where he's just lethal at finding soft spots in coverage over the middle of the field.
  14. Sticking with Marty B this week. It's going to take more than 1 week where he was used almost exclusively as a blocker to make me lose faith.
  15. Guys and gals, it's a long season. The Titans want to pound the run, and it would be foolish for Murray to get 75-80% of the carries when that would clearly wear him down. Even if they start out with the workload heavily in Murray's favor, he will get nicked up at some point (he's not exactly an ironman, and every RB has bumps and bruises...) and the Titans will smartly ease his workload since they have arguably the best backup RB in the league. Henry will look positively unstoppable in some games and EARN additional carries. Mularkey can refrain from calling it the "hot hand approach" if he likes, but when every game counts and Mularkey is coaching for his job, he will do whatever yields results on the field. I am not betting on Henry getting more carries than Murray this season. What I am betting on is that this team will look to run the ball 400+ times this year, meaning that even with a 65/35 split in favor of Murray (which I think would be extreme given Henry's undeniable talent), Henry will approach 150 carries this year, which is nearly 10 per game. I'm thinking 8-12 carries is a fair expectation on a weekly basis, and it's possible he will get his number called on the goal line as well. My conservative estimate for Henry is something like this: 150 carries, 675 rushing yards, 6 TDs. A less conservative estimate, either accounting for a minor Murray injury at some point in the season, or Henry simply earning more carries through his on field performance, would look something like this: 180 carries, 800 rushing yards, 8 TDs. That projection still gives Murray a roughly 55/45 split of the workload, assuming 400 carries. If you believe Murray will have a great year, I won't even argue that. The offense is built around the run and Murray has looked great in preseason. However I don't believe that precludes Henry from having a very solid year himself, and being a solid flex option to borderline RB2. And of course, there's the possibility (however unlikely) that Murray looks washed up once the games count, like he did last year, and Henry seizes majority control of the backfield.