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mjb03003 last won the day on August 8 2018

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  1. Kind of crazy how quickly he was cast aside after that dreadful 2017 season. He's still just 28 years old and he hit 15 HR post-ASB last year, with a .873 OPS. I think he could be a top 50 bat in 2019.
  2. Kind of curious how you will override the host site's treatment of them as 2 separate players to give the owner an additional roster spot? Doesn't seem like the easiest thing to work around.
  3. I wasn't talking about solely the 1B position, I was speaking generally about hitters that could be drafted in that area of the draft.
  4. I think we are in agreement? I was saying that I like Miggy in the mid-rounds because at least he should provide a solid average in between spurts of putting up nice power/counting numbers.
  5. For me, personally, if I'm going to be plugging in a mid-round guy and hoping he provides me solid R/HR/RBI, knowing full well he has no speed, I'd at least want him to have a great hit tool and provide me with solid batting average along the way. There's dozens of guys with more power upside than Miggy, and virtually anyone has more speed upside, but I find that if a guy is hitting .200 for a prolonged stretch and not even providing power/speed then I'm more likely to cut bait or bench him and miss out on the eventual production. With a guy like Miggy, if he's at least hovering around .300, he's at least contributing something and I'm much more likely to leave him in the lineup and catch his eventual hot streaks.
  6. The roster size issue is a pretty big one, and it also comes into play for me with a football league I commish on Yahoo where we have IDPs and deep benches. We're currently right up against that 30 player roster size limitation and would love to keep expanding (adding bench mostly) but we are restricted by the host site. People love to rail against Yahoo but I still like the product more than any of the competitors (especially when you consider it's FREE), but I really don't understand why they haven't added more flexibility that would make dynasty/keepers much better.
  7. It certainly was his primary problem, at least in my opinion. I mean 110 carries as a rookie and 176 carries last year is not really a large enough sample size to make definitive statements for a back with Derrick Henry's playing style. Whether it will remain his problem is the question, and the trend is towards it being less of a problem, or perhaps not a problem at all. Not sure why we need to keep bringing other players (Carson, Drake) into the conversation here.
  8. The production DHC projected would be 1st round level. Those were just his personal projections which you might feel are a little inflated. I don't think he or anyone is suggesting you should (or will need to) draft Henry in the 1st round, just that that level of production would put him up there with the first round RBs. There's about 8 running backs whose usage we can bank on in this game. The rest you have to read the tea leaves (or quotes from the coaching staff, reports from beat writers, etc...) and make an educated guess. I think relegating Henry to a RBBC after what he's shown would be a fireable offense at this point. Henry had 2 games with 15+ carries as a rookie and 3 games with 15+ carries last year. This year that number jumped to 6. Henry had 110 carries as a rookie and 176 carries last year. This year that number jumped to 215. The trend is towards the Titans and their coaching staff finally realizing what they have... I'll be sure to stay tuned for comments from Vrabel, Lafleur, and the writers who cover the team this offseason (and if they say the wrong things I'll bail), but I'd be borderline shocked if they don't finally commit to giving Henry the damn ball.
  9. I actually think Carson is a borderline RB1 at this point, provided he can manage to stay healthy and fend off Penny. He looks like a beast out there. Comparing Henry to Carson isn't a negative in my eyes. Both guys are in run-heavy schemes and get plenty of goal-line opportunities, and neither relies on receptions to buoy their value. They also run with a physical style that wears opposing defenses out. The main difference that I see is that Henry is a former Heisman trophy winner and a 2nd round pick, so he's always had this "pedigree" and was simply never used like the workhorse he is very clearly built to be. Carson was a 7th round pick and his health (and as a result, his usage) has not been that consistent historically, plus his team just drafted a RB in the first round (Rashaad Penny). If I had to guess, the "funny face" reaction from DHC is in response to these portions of your post: No, the first 6 weeks shouldn't be thrown out, but it's worth at least analyzing his usage, the health of the O-line, and the opponents for those games, is it not? Also, he had one "miracle game" and followed it up with 3 straight RB1-type performances in which he averaged 23/115/1. Here's what Henry has done in his career in games with 15+ carries: 16/60/1 rushing, 4/37/0 receiving 15/65/1 rushing, 1/3/0 receiving 19/131/1 rushing, 1/14/0 receiving 28/51/0 rushing, 1/66/1 receiving 23/156/1 rushing, 2/35/0 receiving 18/56/0 rushing, 0/0/0 receiving 18/57/0 rushing, 0/0/0 receiving 17/238/4 rushing, 0/0/0 receiving 33/170/2 rushing, 1/1/0 receiving 21/84/1 rushing, 1/8/0 receiving 16/93/0 rushing, 1/13/0 receiving Totals: 224 rushing attempts, 1160 rushing yards (5.18 YPC), 11 TDs, plus 12 receptions, 177 receiving yards, 1 TD Averages: 20.4 rushing attempts for 105.5 rushing yards and 1 TD per game. Plus 1.1 receptions for 16.1 receiving yards and 0 TDs per game Throw out the "miracle game" and he still has the following averages in games with 15+ rushing attempts: Totals: 207 rushing attempts, 922 rushing yards (4.45 YPC), 7 TDs, plus 12 receptions, 177 receiving yards, 1 TD Averages:20.7 rushing attempts for 92.2 rushing yards and 0.7 TDs per game. Plus 1.2 receptions for 17.7 receiving yards and 0 TDs per game Week 2 and week 3 of this season represent the only games in Henry's career where he's failed to score a touchdown or break 100 total yards when given 15+ carries in a game.
  10. This has been covered repeatedly in this thread but I have a hard time holding a player's production against them if they aren't getting touches. I mean what was Henry supposed to do weeks 4-11 when he was only getting 8 or 9 carries per week? A lot of people have pointed to weeks 2 and 3 when he got 18 carries (and had 56 and 57 scoreless yards), but most ignore the fact that the Titans were missing key members of their O-Line and were facing two stout defenses (Houston and Jacksonville, who at that point was still playing elite defense). Unfortunately after that they went away from him for a while... In the week 10 game against New England (a big upset W) you could start to see the shift in playcalling/gameplan, and Henry responded with 11/58/2. When they finally decided to use him like a bellcow (weeks 14-17), they ripped off 3 straight wins and nearly snuck into the playoffs. Henry was historically productive. How do you discount that? How do the Titans ignore that or go away from that? To your "gamescript/TD dependent" argument... what about Week 17 vs. Indy? Gamescript went against him, and it was a must win game with Blaine Gabbert offering no threat in the passing game, and Henry still turned in multiple highlight reel runs and a very solid 16/93 on the ground and 1/13 through the air. I'd argue he held up very well to still put up 106 total yards in that gamescript. Henry's abillity to break a big run at any moment means they shouldn't go away from him completely even when they're trailing (unless they're down more than 2 scores late in the 4th...).
  11. If you threw out all of the noise and just look at his numbers over his three year career, you'd say this is a player that still has a ton of upside: 2016: 110 rush attempts (7.33 per game), 490 rush yards (4.5 YPC), 5 TDs. 13 receptions, 137 rec. yards, 0 TDs. 2017: 176 rush attempts (11 per game), 744 rush yards (4.2 YPC), 5 TDs. 11 receptions, 136 rec. yards, 1 TD. 2018: 215 rush attempts (13.44 per game), 1,059 rush yards (4.9 YPC), 12 TDs. 15 receptions, 99 rec. yards, 0 TDs. Imagine what happens if he takes even a marginal step forward, to 15-16 carries per game (240-256 total carries?). Or... what if he got 18 totes per game?! IF (and it's a big IF) the Titans truly give Henry the reins (remember he spent his first two seasons playing second fiddle to DeMarco Murray, and the bulk of this season stuck behind Dion Lewis), I think he can definitely be a top ten back.
  12. Henry will remain a very polarizing player but I’m happy I remained patient and he was a big factor for my RB starved team in the playoffs, becoming my de facto RB1 and helping me take 2nd place. For that, I’m very grateful. Moving forward I think it’s up to the coaches to get him his touches and to continue to build an offensive system around him. The Titans have a good young defense coming together so a run-heavy/ball-control offense seems like a good fit. Especially now with all the uncertainty around Mariota’s health, or even to some degree his ability as a passer. It will be interesting to see if Corey Davis will be able to flourish in the same system. I owned both all year in my keeper league and there were moments where I was very optimistic about Davis’ future (and pessimistic about Henry’s) but at this point it feels like more of the pieces are in place for Henry to thrive than Davis...
  13. You left out Jordan Wilkins 1 carry for 53 yards, which raises the Colts output that week to 13/82 or 6.30 YPC. The Jags are also a tanking team who has played much better at home all season (Sunday's game is in Miami). I don't know how much stock we should be putting in games from 4-6 weeks ago when they were still at least technically in the playoff hunt and hadn't yet benched Bortles and started trying to give "David Williams" a look at RB. That Colts matchup a few weeks ago was impressive and it might even be instructive except the Colts are a division rival and it was a home game. They followed up that win by getting destroyed on the road by Tennessee, and losing at home to a third string QB (Josh Johnson).
  14. I want to agree with this but the Chargers are currently only guaranteed to be a road team on Wild Card Weekend as the #5 seed. If they win out and the Chiefs drop a game (realistically would have to be this Sunday Night @ Seattle, as I don't see them losing to the Raiders...) the Chiefs would take over the #1 seed. The Ravens are a tough matchup and it would definitely be beneficial to have Keenan out there if he's not risking futher injury (hip pointer = pain tolerance issue). IF they had lost to the Chiefs last week, their chances of winning the division and getting the #1 seed would be almost zero, and in that scenario I could see Keenan and anyone else less than 100% (MGIII) resting.
  15. Jordy's been quietly turning back the clock the last few weeks. As others have pointed out, the setup looks nice: home game, MNF, Broncos secondary is banged up/depleted, Broncos are slight favorites...