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About phizzics

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  • Birthday July 18

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  1. I'm really torn on this one. I can see this turning into a "stack the box" situation that would hurt his value, but a "dink and dunk" passing game with a good O-Line can work even with a young QB. I'm not sure defenses will get away with cheating against the run for very long. Maybe the naysayers are right and it's too much risk at the top of the draft, especially with so many variables in play, but I'm cautiously optimistic about how this could develop.
  2. If Alex Gordon isn't owned in your league it might be time to pick him up. 2 homers tonight and a nice stretch of games prior to that.
  3. CJ Cron just off the DL. Might take a little time to shake the rust off, but a legit power bat when he gets going.
  4. I hate having extreme positions, either too close to first or too close to last. So much that can happen over two dozen picks that can really mess with your plans. There's nothing worse than seeing a run on a position take place and having to watch helplessly as every good option goes off the board. I'd much rather adjust my strategy after 11 picks rather than after 23.
  5. The 17 year old kid next door to me loves anything to do superheroes, comic books, etc. He was really looking forward to the release thinking it was going to be another Deadpool. He went to an early screening yesterday and was really disappointed. If he didn't like it, I'd say that it's probably pretty bad.
  6. I've been waiting to see him pitch in the majors to find out if his MiLB numbers are a mirage. 320 Ks against 41 BBs is really impressive, and he's not giving up hits while he avoids walks. He got tested a bit when he moved to AAA in the PCL with an ERA around 3.8, but his WHIP remained low and his walk rate was still excellent. I haven't really looked at what/how fast he throws, but it's his control that gets him results. If he had a FT starter role I'd add him in every team I own.
  7. Out of the lineup today.
  8. His MLB results have been inconsistent, but the scouting reports always seemed to indicate that he was worth keeping an eye on. In dynasty league especially, he's a good player to grab and suffer through the growing pains. I'm not sure if he'll keep it going this year, but it won't be a huge surprise if he has a good run.
  9. I read something earlier that said he could be available to pinch hit so it doesn't seem to be serious. As long as it's not a hamstring issue I'd just take that at face value and assume he'll be back soon.
  10. I'm thinking I'll draft him in the 2nd round. He'll spend April and May batting .210 with one homer and a BABIP of .195, which will convince me to hold on to him long enough to wreck my season before I finally trade him for Emilio Bonifacio. After that he'll hit 25 homers before the end of the year and raise his batting average to .325 behind a BABIP of just under .400. In 2018 I'll have learned my lesson, so I'll draft him in the first round. He'll be hit by a pitch on April 10th and be out until the ASB when he'll come back and hit 4 homers in one game and then blow a hammy on his last home run trot. In 2019 I'll avoid him like the plague, so he'll win the batting triple crown and finally match Ted Williams by ending with a .400+ average. Oh, year? 2nd round pick...probably late 2nd unless he actually goes 30/20 this year. If nothing else, the threat of a sophomore slump will keep him out of the 1st round and suddenly there are quite a few good options at SS.
  11. Well, certainly not as a punishment. Anyone can go 0 for 4, but 3 errors? That's a little different. Didi kills lefties so he'll probably play tonight, but Girardi has never been afraid to shuffle his lineup to give a guy a day off when he seems to need it.
  12. Might be fatigue. He went 0 for 4 and had a few errors so it wouldn't surprise me to see him on the bench for a day to clear his head.
  13. You're entitled to your opinion, of course, but how you reach it is extremely suspect. First, he's had 3 RBIs in the last 9 games, not 2. Is there something significant about the number 9, or was it deliberately selected because it seemed to prove your point? That's called "cherry picking" and it's a clear sign that confirmation bias is at work. When you start with an untested hypothesis (Upton is a mediocre bat) and then arbitrarily pick a date to start counting, and further get the statistic wrong (coincidentally in the direction that supports your hypothesis), you can't call that "analysis". In this case, if you use 10 days instead of 9, you don't have 2 RBIs (claimed), or 3 RBIs (reality), you'd have 6 RBIs. That's how baseball numbers work. Noisy data is extremely sensitive to endpoint selection. Please note that I'm not saying that you're wrong in your assertion that Upton isn't a good fantasy asset, but the methodology you use to reach that conclusion is invalid. You might as well say "I would never own Upton because players named "Justin" are always bad". I'll also point out that you said: A .270 average with 6 hrs and 4 steals in a month and a half is NOT what I would call a hot streak. If that is a hot streak look out the next month and a half. That sounds more like Alex Gordon . Nothing special. To project 45 games over a 162 game season, you would multiply by 3.6. So doing the math, let's look at how many players actually had a .270+, 22+ HR, 14+ SB season in 2015. At first glance, that looks a lot better than "Alex Gordon" level, unless you're talking about AG2011 when he was actually very good. In fact, there were 25 OF in all of baseball that had 22 or more HRs last year, and there were 39 who racked up 14 or more SBs. So, how many did both? ONE. The entire list consists of Ryan Braun. To be fair, there were a few that were pretty close and deserve to be included as having essentially the same type of season. Betts, Springer and Bryant had similar lines, and Upton himself had the steals and homers but not the average. Of course there are big bats who crushed that HR total, and speedsters who did a lot more on the basepaths, but the hybrid of speed and power isn't as common as you might think. The numbers you cited absolutely qualify as a "hot streak" because if they were sustained over an entire season they'd be almost impossible to find elsewhere. Again, I'm not making any judgment about Upton other than to note that he's always been streaky and predicting future performance from the recent past is nearly impossible. If you're going to try, however, you have do it completely and honestly or you're just deluding yourself.
  14. Who else streamed Chris Young hoping that he'd feast on Shield's pitching only to lose him in the first inning to a hamstring injury?
  15. OK friends...enough is enough. You can tell that a baseball thread has gone off the rails when the discussion includes a football player and a football owner. Everyone agrees that domestic violence is a serious matter and deserves punishment, but we're not going to debate the role of professional sports in law enforcement here. Let's get back to the very real question regarding his ability to contribute to a team in any meaningful way and leave the sociological issues alone.