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Sine_cera last won the day on April 16 2017

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  1. Delino DeShields 2018 Outlook

    Getting 550 AB or 600+ PA is no easy task though. Hitting leadoff means more PA and AB so more chances of scoring runs. PA for leadoff hitters in the AL in 2017: 11348 PA for #9 hitters in the AL in 2017: 9191 (2157 differential) AB for leadoff hitters in the AL in 2017: 10181 AB for #9 hitters in the AL in 2017: 8296 (1888 differential) This is the AL leaderboard for players scoring 100 runs in the fewest PA since 2013: Lorenzo Cain - 604 PA (140 GP) George Springer - 629 PA (140 GP) Justin Upton - 635 PA (152 GP) Jose Ramirez - 645 PA (152 GP) Miggy Cabrera - 652 PA (148 GP) Those guys were all 1-3 hitters so they were able to have more than 600 PA. They also needed at least 140 games to reach those 600+ PA from the 1-3 spot. So for Deshields to score 100 runs from the 9-hole in fewer PA than the 1-3 hitters will require: 1. an incredible pace when it comes to R/PA. Even better than what Cain did. 2. the top of the lineup being extremely good with RISP. 3. the Rangers lineup will have to be so good that he will eclipse 600+ PA from the 9-spot. He also can't miss any time at all. 4. DeShields will start to hit for power. The fewest number of HR hit by any of those 5 guys was 16. Since 2013 only 36 players have scored 100+ runs in the AL. The fewest number of HR hit was 15. The last time an AL player scored 100+ runs without hitting at least 10 HR was 2010...
  2. Delino DeShields 2018 Outlook

    Average runs scored per team in the AL in 2017: Batting 1st: 108,5 Batting 2nd: 99,4 Batting 3rd: 92,1 Batting 4th: 89,6 Batting 5th: 85,3 Batting 6th: 76,3 Batting 7th: 73,5 Batting 8th: 70,7 Batting 9th: 67,6 The #9 hitter gets the fewest AB so these numbers are no surprise. This is why all the players who scored 100 runs in the AL last year (only 8) were players hitting first, second or third. Compared to previous years, the 67,6 runs scored from the #9 spot is a high number. In 2016 it was 63,9 and 62,5 in 2015. But scoring went up in the Majors last season. I'm not trying to proof you wrong but I'm taking the under on him scoring 100 runs if he bats 9th all season. I believe he can score more than 70 though but not by much. Unless he gets on base regularly and the top of the lineup hits like crazy with RISP.
  3. Delino DeShields 2018 Outlook

    He's only going to score 100 runs if he hits leadoff. He's not going to sniff 100 runs getting 550/600 AB hitting near the bottom. His value really depends on where he hits in the lineup.
  4. Matt Harvey 2018 Outlook

    This thread is going to be fun.
  5. Shohei Ohtani - Angels

    On Fangraphs they said he won't be hitting on the day before, the day after and the day that he has to pitch.
  6. Matt Carpenter 2018 Outlook

    And so it begins...
  7. Evan Gattis 2018 Outlook

    How this guy hit 11 triples in 2015 has to be one of baseball's biggest mysteries. In his other 1400+ AB he has 1 triple....This is "30 for 30" material.
  8. Scott Kingery - PHI 2B

    Back to back seasons with at least a 3.3 WAR? A 7.6 WAR over the past 2 seasons which is 7th among 2B during that span? There are probably 20+ teams out there who would love to have someone like that as their 2B. They will find a team in no time should they decide to trade him.
  9. Austin Hays 2018 Outlook

    So he's a typical Orioles hitter? Schoop, Jones, Mancini, Beckham, Hardy...
  10. Khris Davis 2018 Outlook

    Unless he has a really bad luck with his BABIP, I'm not worried about the AVG.
  11. 2018 Sleepers/Value Picks

    Looking at current ADP on FantasyPros, I really like the next 4 1B: Jose Martinez (299.8) Ryan McMahon (311.8) Logan Morrison (304.2) Yonder Alonso (308.2) Morrison has an ADP of 246 on Yahoo which is still good value (20th round). Some of them might have playing time issues (Martinez/McMahon) but there's also a chance that they'll keep the job all year long. Finding out won't cost you a high draft pick. I will target all 4 as players I want for my CI/Util/Bench. All 4 can outproduce their ADP and outproduce other 1B who are being drafted much higher.
  12. Logan Morrison 2018 Outlook

    At that ADP there's little risk in finding out. Should he bust then you simply drop him on waivers, if he doesn't regress (or only regresses a little bit) he will easily outproduce his ADP. This is another player I would much rather draft than for example, Matt Olson. 2017 Logan Morrison is what you hope Olson will be.
  13. Logan Morrison 2018 Outlook

    Both RosterResource and RotoChamp have him batting 4th. His ADP right now is still around 300 (246 on Yahoo). I really like the value of the 1B going around that 300 ADP (Morrison/Alonso/McMahon/J.Martinez).
  14. Charlie Morton 2018 Outlook

    His numbers third time through the order weren't pretty (7.18 ERA). I think the Astros want to limit his innings again and keep him healthy. They have the bullpen to do it. I suspect they'll do the same with McCullers.
  15. Rhys Hoskins 2018 Outlook

    I usually end up with the "meh" players. I can put them in my lineup and the stats will be there at the end of the year. They also tend to fall in drafts so you don't even have to reach for them. I own Hoskins in my keeper and dynasty leagues but I probably won't own him in any redraft leagues. I already know someone will like him much more than I I do (and I like Hoskins).