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Light Tower Power

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  1. Corbin Burnes 2019 Outlook

    Certainly a fair take. He was in the PCL (notoriously offensive environment). I don't feel like breaking down each start to see how much he was impacted. Here's the quick and dirty ball park factors. https://www.milb.com/milb/news/toolshed-stats-triple-a-ballpark-factors/c-208823408
  2. Chris Paddack - SP SD

    For anyone that wants to read the article. Here is the quick link. Ralph providing a 20-30% best case scenario take... Future Ace. https://www.prospectslive.com/featured-articles/2019/2/9/planting-flags-chris-paddack-is-a-future-ace
  3. Corbin Burnes 2019 Outlook

    Huh, it was Colorado springs bud. Away: AAA Corbin Burnes posted a 3.69 ERA with a 1.19 WHIP. Of course he would do better in AAA, they don't play in Colorado Springs anymore. If he sucked so bad in AAA, why the hell would they promote him to MLB? To get him the hell out of Colorado Springs, IMO.
  4. Corbin Burnes 2019 Outlook

    Lol, he pitched at 6,000 feet elevation. Throw that sh*t out.... To your point, they aren't playing at Colorado Springs this year, so AAA could be beneficial, but his MLB numbers were good as a reliever. Davies blows btw... Burnes is the most talented of the group as a 3 pitch pitcher.
  5. Drew Smyly 2019 Outlook

    Drew Smyly, had surgery two years ago on 7-6-17 making him 19-months removed from his TJ when spring training kicks off this month. Seattle traded for him after a down year in 2016 where he posted 4.88 ERA with Tampa. Never threw a pitch for Seattle as he pitched for team USA and hurt his elbow that spring. Before his down 2016 season, he posted a 3.11 ERA in 66 2/3 innings in 2015 and a 3.24 ERA in 153 innings in 2014. He has a career 3.74 ERA and 1.20 WHIP. Roster resource projects him as their #3 starter. Projections systems tend to think he picks up where he left off in 2016, mostly projecting a 4.7 ERA and 1.3 WHIP type bounce back season. I'm with OP, given how far he is removed from TJ. I'll be watching him closely this spring as a sneaky ratio play. We will get a better read on him very shortly. Only 29, his #1 ZIP comp is Cliff Lee and Cliff Lee's age 29 season was amazing
  6. 2019 Sleepers

    I remember streaming Kendrys Morales the week of August 20th. Morales went on to hit 7 hrs that week and I crushed the #1 team in my weekly H2H. Probably the best week I had all season from any single player. I kind of cheated though. He had 6-games at home, 3 against Baltimore and all versus righties. Baltimore is still on the schedule this year Just saying..
  7. Baseball Prospectus 2019 Top 101 Prospects

    To be fair, on their mid-season list Adell was 3, May was 37 and Seuly 41. So not much changed with their bullishness on those prospects. Just some perspective on maybe why they ended up where they did.
  8. 2018-19 Off-Season and Hot Stove Thread

    The Jerry Dipoto show continues. Does anyone know what percentage of trades he has been involved in this off-season versus the field? Shed Long to Seattle for Josh Stowers (to NYY).
  9. 2019 Sleepers

    No clue how to project his playing time, but I think this is a possible logical outcome IMO. The Padres didn't care about gaining an extra year of control with Joey Lucchesi, but I think they will with Paddack. So, give him 3-4 starts in AAA, then promote him at the end of April to replace anyone not named Lucchesi as you figure Paddack will probably only throw around 120 innings this year. With limited bullets, it's best to expose him to MLB hitters because that's the best teacher, no need to waste those limited bullets. Like you said, curve ball will determine if he can take it to another level. Just shocking how good they project him to be as a two pitch pitcher. If he does get to a consistently average curve ball, jeez.
  10. 2019 Sleepers

    I have a 498 NFBC ADP, but look how good I am. 2019 Projections (min 70 innings): Steamer: 3.52 ERA (16th overall); 1.16 WHIP (11th overall) the Bat: 3.58 ERA (26th overall); 1.15 WHIP (18th overall) I have nothing left to prove in the minors, my name is Chris Paddack.
  11. 2018-19 Off-Season and Hot Stove Thread

    Shed Long is interesting.. According to Jon Heyman of Fancred, the Yankees are finalizing the trade that would send Sonny Gray to the Reds. The Reds balked at the Yankees' insistence to include catching prospect Tyler Stephenson in the deal. Instead, they'll second second base prospect Shed Long, a draft pick and perhaps another lower level prospect that hasn't been identified yet. It certainly looks like this deal will happen, everything just needs to be finalized before it becomes official. http://www.rotoworld.com/player/mlb/5506/sonny-gray
  12. 2018-19 Off-Season and Hot Stove Thread

    Funny, same day that mystery team news came out, so did this.... Offer both 250mil, and come away with one of them. Andy Martino of SNY reports that the Yankees could be eyeing Rockies' superstar Nolan Arenado. Perhaps that's why they haven't shown as much interest as anticipated in Manny Machado this winter. Arenado is entering the final season on his deal in Colorado, and according to Martino's sources, the two sides have already discussed a potential deal at some point this offseason. While the Rockies have been open about their desire to sign Arenado to a long-term contract extension, the chances of that happening don't appear to be great, especially as the two sides heading to a record-breaking arbitration hearing. If they get to a point where they feel that the extension is futile, it wouldn't be surprising at all to see Arenado dealt before the trade deadline.
  13. Corbin Burnes 2019 Outlook

    -Probably my favorite pitching prospect in baseball because of my format (weekly h2h where you can use him as RP). Hiding down at 337 adp on NFBC because his role is unknown. In my format, he has the chance to be the most valuable pitcher in the league which explains some of my bullishness, but I really do like him as a starter. -Talent-wise, he was drafted in the 4th rd, 111 overall from St. Mary's College so we aren't talking about a no sh*t can't miss guy, which IMO is why so many pubs missed on him and put him at the back end of their top 100s. Except for Law and Longenhagen, who were bullish and had him in the 25-35 range. This is his fangraph's scouting grades. Fastball Slider Curveball Changeup Command Future Value 55 / 55 50 / 55 50 / 55 45 / 50 50 / 60 55 -Going into this past year, my two favorite (not necessarily best) pitching prospects were Joey Lucchesi and Corbin Burnes because they both had ELITE minor league out generation skills. This made me very certain that I was going to get a close to MLB ready #3 type pitcher. Someone I could project into an automatic start verse a weak or so-so NL offense. -Steamer and depth charts both project a 4.53 ERA and 4.50 FIP. They project 30 BBs to 67 Ks. Just a really weak projection IMO. Did you know that in AAA Corbin Burnes posted a 5.15 ERA with a .4.22 FIP? Hmmm, plus one for the projection systems. Did you know that in AAA Corbin Burnes posted a 7.24 ERA with a 1.82 WHIP at Home? With 27 Ks and 18 BBs in 32.1 IP. Did you know that in AAA Corbin Burnes posted a 3.69 ERA with a 1.19 WHIP away? With 54 Ks and 13 BBs in 46.1 IP.Seriously, Corbin Burnes will never throw another pitch above 6K feet again, -10 for his steamer projection.
  14. 2018-19 Off-Season and Hot Stove Thread

    Everyone is waiting on Manny. Padres have been previously linked to Miguel Andujar. And that probably has legs with Preller and prospects galore.
  15. 2018-19 Off-Season and Hot Stove Thread

    Hmmm... Would love to see Franmil go.. Jon Paul Morosi of MLB.com reports the Padres and Indians have remained in contact regarding a potential trade for starting pitcher Corey Kluber. Morosi says the Padres have taken their five best prospects off the table (SS Fernando Tatis Jr., LHP Mackenzie Gore, C Francisco Mejia, 2B Luis Urias and RHP Chris Paddack). However the Padres loaded farm system is stocked with plenty of desirable prospects they would be willing to trade, including pitchers Adrian Morejon, Michel Baez, Logan Allen, Cal Quantrill and Anderson Espinoza along with hitters like Buddy Reed, Josh Naylor and Tirso Ornelas. Morosi says young major leaguers Manuel Margot, Hunter Renfroe, Joey Lucchesi or Eric Lauer could be part of a deal. Morosi reports the Dodgers continue to be involved in Kluber trade talks as well. and... Will Myers will return to the outfield for the 2019 season. Myers switched to third base in August of last season and ended up playing 36 games at that position. He told reporters at the Padres' fan fest that he and the team decided to end that experiment, although he could fill in at third occasionally if needed. He batted .253/.318/.446 with 11 homers, 39 RBI and 13 steals in 83 games. He is a rare five-category fantasy contributor when healthy, with batting average (.253 career mark) being his weakest attribute.