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Straight Outta CPT

"Points" value of standard roto categories

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I posted this on another site:

I decided it would be interesting to determine how "valuable" the various categories were, as determined by Basketball Monster's z-value methodology. I used stats from last season (2007-08), because I feel that the sample size is too small for this season. This is for 12-team, 13-man leagues, and as always using z-values, standard assumptions regarding normal distributions apply. That is, the values given below are the differential value of each "statistic" for a perfectly balanced "average" team in an "average" league.

Briefly, I assigned a value of 1 "fantasy point" (FP) to a real point. Under this system of valuation, treys last year were worth 6.54 FP, rebounds 1.92 FP, assists 2.36 FP, steals 12.08 FP, blocks 8.11 FP, and turnovers -6.88 FP. For an "average team" with average number of FGA and FTA, one made FG was worth 5.38 FP and one missed FG was worth -4.73 FP. One made FT was 3.50 FP and the missed FT was -12.44 FP.

Some interesting things to note:

- While the average FG% is 46.8%, because shots made result in points, the "break-even" point for 2 pt shots is 39.1%. That is, for a player who shoots as low as 39.1% from the field, the expected detriment to your FG balances the benefit to your scoring.

- This is even more pronounced for 3 pt shots, because of the high weight of 3PM. The break-even point is 24.1%. So root for your players to keep chucking!

- On the other hand, because of how damaging missed FTs are, the break even for FT% is only 73.4%, which isn't much lower than the average of 78.0%.

- Missed FGs are significantly more damaging than rebounds are helpful, so those sequences in which your player bats a missed shot to himself for a rebound actually hurts you.

- The most beneficial play from a single player is a made three-pointer, which yields 3 pts (3 FP), a trey (6.54 FP), and a made FG (5.38 FP), which is a total of 14.91 FP. The steal is second most beneficial (12.08 FP).

- Conversely, the missed free throw is by far the most detrimental (-12.44). Combined with the previous point, this is why so many shooting specialists float to the top of the rankings.

The average player (z = 0.00) will contribute 14.74 FP from points, 6.19 FP from treys, 10.87 FP from rebounds, 7.74 FP from assists, 12.21 FP from steals, 5.25 FP from blocks, and -13.02 FP from turnovers. If your team is crippled by injury, aside from turnovers and the percentages, you have the best chance of competing in blocks, treys, and assists, in that order. Do not expect to compete in points, steals, or rebounds. (Note: this is why blocks can be more rare than steals, but still less valuable because of the high variance.)

I had some more comments to be made, but I'll save that for when I have more time. Obviously, avoid the temptation of applying these stats to where the assumptions are invalid.

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I posted this on another site:

Oooh this is really cool, thanks for sharing this!

I have always wanted to write up a quick simulation and run it a bajillion times, to see which players really end up on the winning teams, but I have never got around to it. Maybe soon.

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