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dcc1220

Who should I give up?

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I have a trade in the works which will get me Stephen Strasburg. However, to do it I have to give back one of my minor league prospects. Who would you give up?

Jason Heyward

Michael Moustakas

Eric Hosmer

Carlos Carrasco

Grant Green

I am currently leaning toward Grant Green but would love to hear if others would give up Carrasco.

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Carrasco, and its not even close, IMO.

I not only agree with the above, I would say it's being kind. B)

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I gave up too much, essentially the right to draft Bumgarner at 3 and potentially Posey/C Santana/T Beckham/Cahill/Stanton at 9 in order to trade up to 1 and get strasburg. you cant win if you dont play, right?

Also I needed to consolidate MILB picks as I have too many. I likely wouldnt have given up my only two picks for #1

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I not only agree with the above, I would say it's being kind. B)

Thank you for being so kind. :)

The reason I am more inclined to keep Carrasco is that if none of my minor league players play in the majors this year I won't have a minor league pick next year. I believe Carrasco gets MLB time this year. None of the rest probably do.

However, my team is poor enough that I probably need to be more concerned with getting the best players possible.

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I gave up too much, essentially the right to draft Bumgarner at 3 and potentially Posey/C Santana/T Beckham/Cahill/Stanton at 9 in order to trade up to 1 and get strasburg. you cant win if you dont play, right?

Also I needed to consolidate MILB picks as I have too many. I likely wouldnt have given up my only two picks for #1

Careful picking Strasburg. There's no way in hell he's pitching this year if he signs, and if Boras decides to go nuclear, he may go unsigned and spend 2010 striking out hitters in the Northern League. High risk/high reward scenario.

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Yeah I tossed and turned over the trade but since i have a limited number of keepers i decided to consolidate and gamble on the best prospect available. i think he gets his $$$ and pitches this fall for the nats

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Careful picking Strasburg. There's no way in hell he's pitching this year if he signs, and if Boras decides to go nuclear, he may go unsigned and spend 2010 striking out hitters in the Northern League. High risk/high reward scenario.

Please correct me if I am wrong. If he were to sign a 6-year $50 deal from the start as Boras has mentioned, why would anyone wait to bring him up? It wouldn't make financial sense to have the guy spend even a calendar year in the minors because his arbitration years would be already nixed, yes? If he gets a MLB contract from the start, why not pitch him immediately (other than development of course - but I don't think you take him if you don't sign him which means paying him)?

Am I correct that a contract like this would eliminate his arbitration years from the start?

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Please correct me if I am wrong. If he were to sign a 6-year $50 deal from the start as Boras has mentioned, why would anyone wait to bring him up? It wouldn't make financial sense to have the guy spend even a calendar year in the minors because his arbitration years would be already nixed, yes? If he gets a MLB contract from the start, why not pitch him immediately (other than development of course - but I don't think you take him if you don't sign him which means paying him)?

Am I correct that a contract like this would eliminate his arbitration years from the start?

First off, he's not going to get a 50M deal. I believe that the largest deal is around 8-9M, with Price, and most of that is upfront bonus money - someone please correct me if I'm off - Posey's contract was for a similar number, I believe (he wanted 10+M, the top 4 teams shied away, the Giants drafted and held firm, and guess what - he signed). Teams still hold the hammer, so there's little the players & even Boras can do about it. Because Strasbourg is a junior he can threaten to go back into college for 1 more year and hold out for a couple of million more, but we're not talking salary, we're talking 1-time payout money.

So, when teams call up even the starts, they actually only have to pay a little more than minimum wage per year. If Strasbourg can get more than 10M (most of it in bonus money), and a big-league contract (i.e. he gets put on the 40-man roster, which means he *has* to be up within 3 seasons, which is a lock if he's healthy, so the Nats will likely cave here), then he's doing well.

Once you factor in that we're talking bonus money to sign on, it does make pre-arbitration and arbitration costs important to factor in.

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First off, he's not going to get a 50M deal. I believe that the largest deal is around 8-9M, with Price, and most of that is upfront bonus money - someone please correct me if I'm off - Posey's contract was for a similar number, I believe (he wanted 10+M, the top 4 teams shied away, the Giants drafted and held firm, and guess what - he signed). Teams still hold the hammer, so there's little the players & even Boras can do about it. Because Strasbourg is a junior he can threaten to go back into college for 1 more year and hold out for a couple of million more, but we're not talking salary, we're talking 1-time payout money.

Mark Prior got $10.5 MM guaranteed. I would see this as the floor for Strasburg, given the eight years in between them. Still, I can't imagine $50 MM being realistic. Boras can try, but if he does, someone should just whisper the name "Matt Harrington" into his ear.

My random guess is $8 MM bonus plus four-year contract for $8 MM more, for $16 MM guaranteed. Still a record, but not off-the-charts absurd.

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Mark Prior got $10.5 MM guaranteed. I would see this as the floor for Strasburg, given the eight years in between them. Still, I can't imagine $50 MM being realistic. Boras can try, but if he does, someone should just whisper the name "Matt Harrington" into his ear.

My random guess is $8 MM bonus plus four-year contract for $8 MM more, for $16 MM guaranteed. Still a record, but not off-the-charts absurd.

The Prior contract and a few others led to MLB's slotting system. Under that system, 16M would be a *huge* win for Strasbourg - I think he ends up somewhere between 12M-14M, personally. Something like 8M bonus sounds right, but I'm thinking a 3-year, 4M contract as the Nats baseline. I suspect the slotting system, while it hasn't *really* worked to prevent teams from increasing spending on MILB players (and it shouldn't, that's the smarter move, but I digress), it seems to have slowed the rate of increase, which is why we don't see the same comps to Prior's contract now.

Also, to get back to the topic of his timeline, remember that once Strasbourg become arbitration-eligible, the *starting* salary is used as a jumping point, so there's in fact every reason to make sure that his pre-arbitration and arbitration years are correctly timed. Again, if he can make a difference for a contender, then it's less of a concern. For the Nats, they're obviously not contenders in 2009 or 2010, so I imagine they'll take their time until they're sure he's ready....and he doesn't burn the arbitration / free agency clock until the latest possible.

(And thanks for the clarification, I thought someone was higher, couldn't remember who).

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