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NoGimmicks

Team-by-team Fantasy Prospect Rankings

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I'd have to rank Chisenhall higher. He had a really good season and made it up to AA. Good stuff so far. Keep it up.

What do you see as his offensive ceiling?

I will also make a note of Adrian Salcedo, RHP for the Twins. I left him off because 18-year old pitchers in rookie ball don't warrant fantasy consideration unless they are other worldly talents, but he had really good numbers in the GCL and Sickels ranks him #5 on his 2010 Twins list. Someone to watch.

http://www.minorleagueball.com/2009/10/19/...twins-prospects

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What do you see as his offensive ceiling?

I will also make a note of Adrian Salcedo, RHP for the Twins. I left him off because 18-year old pitchers in rookie ball don't warrant fantasy consideration unless they are other worldly talents, but he had really good numbers in the GCL and Sickels ranks him #5 on his 2010 Twins list. Someone to watch.

http://www.minorleagueball.com/2009/10/19/...twins-prospects

I'd probably go w/ a top 5 of..

Carlos

Lonnie

Knapp

Weglarz

Rondon

It's a solid list, but I just think Lonnie showed quite a bit last year.

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WHITE SOX

1) Tyler Flowers C - Reportedly improved defense and promising bat make him the top prospect.

2) Daniel Hudson RHP - Tore through four levels in the minors, ceiling isn't enormous but should settle in as a #3 starter and might be in the rotation in 2010, since Garcia is always hurt

3) Jared Mitchell OF - 09 Draftee, great potential here for roto leagues

4) Dayan Viciedo 3B - Terrible year, probably won't stick at third. Hasn't shown anything since coming to the US but he's still young and offensive ceiling remains high

5) John Shelby OF - Nice power-speed combo and his ratios weren't bad this year either, might be a 20/20 guy down the line. Check his luck-adjusted stats in AA.... not bad. Worth keeping an eye on in deep leagues.

6) Jordan Danks OF - Bad season, too many K's for a guy who doesn't have much power

7) Brent Morel 3B - Had a good season, nothing special, moderate pop and speed at a scarce position makes him interesting for deeper leagues.

Next: Royals....

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ROYALS

1) Michael Moustakas 3B - Not a great year In the minors but ceiling very high, and reports indicate he's worked hard on his defense at third so hopefully he will stay there. Patience at the plate is the main concern right now

2) Eric Hosmer 1B - Another guy with a bad year in the low levels, but bat is very special and only just turned 20 a few days ago.

3) Aaron Crow RHP - Maybe the highest ceiling Royals pitcher and should be able to contribute fairly soon. #2 fantasy starter

4) Tim Melville RHP - Should be a #3 at least, maybe more, but far away

5) Michael Montgomery LHP - Great numbers this year in the low levels, can get groundouts and K's. See how he does as he moves up the ladder. Another #3 starter.

6) Daniel Duffy LHP - #3/#4 fantasy starter, nothing special

7) Wil Myers C - Questionable whether he can remain at C, if he can then he's potentially an impact bat at the position

8) David Lough OF - Not gonna be a stud but does a lot of different things well. Might be more valuable in real life though. Worth checking for in only very deep leagues

9) Kila Kaaihue 1B - No fantasy relevance unless Jacobs is released or someone gets traded. But plate discipline is excellent… he's getting old for the minors though. Still think he deserves a shot.

As you can see for a dynasty/keeper league I would much rather have the high-ceiling bats in Moustakas and Hosmer even though they didn't do well this year, rather than mid-rotation pitching prospects who actually put up good numbers in the minors. That's my preference though, not everyone is the same.

Next: Tigers

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TIGERS

1. Scott Sizemore 2B - Will be good for average, some power, some steals. Not too many legit second base prospects in the minors. Ready to contribute in 2010 full-time if the Tigers give him a chance.

2. Jacob Turner RHP - Best high school pitcher in the draft, highest ceiling for the Tigers system

3. Casey Crosby LHP - Needs to improve his secondary pitches but great fastball, lots of potential here

4. Wilkin Ramirez OF - 20/20 threat but poor on-base skills

5. Alex Avila C - Impressive in limited time last year, won't be that good but might be an average fantasy catcher, which has its value.

6. Ryan Strieby 1B - Massive power, TTO hitter, blocked by Miggy so he's seen some time in the outfield. Needs to get a chance

7. Andy Oliver LHP - Fastball is good enough to be a bullpen arm at least, needs a third pitch to start

8. Casper Wells OF - Deep leagues only

I will also make a minor change to the Royals list, moving Montgomery ahead of Melville.

Next: Angels

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TIGERS

1. Scott Sizemore 2B - Will be good for average, some power, some steals. Not too many legit second base prospects in the minors. Ready to contribute in 2010 full-time if the Tigers give him a chance.

Sizemore allegedly suffered a fractured tibia while trying to break up a double play in Arizona Fall League play, RotoWire's Bernie Pleskoff reports.

Analysis: Sizemore was essentially getting auditioned to be Placido Polanco's replacement at second base this fall, should Polanco not re-sign with the Tigers. He's expected to be ready by spring training, but obviously this is a pretty bad break for Sizemore.

Kinda throws a wrench into things. How he looks in the spring will be very important.

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The rankings were somewhat hard because the systems a bit messy, but here it is

ANGELS

1. Hank Conger C - I think this guy is a little underrated. He stayed healthy this year and saw a lot of time behind the plate. The bat is very promising and if he stick at catcher he's an elite prospect. However, that's still an if. Not a great year in AA but held his own.

2. Trevor Reckling LHP - Walks are a big problem but one of the youngest pitchers in AA, he deserves some slack. Great stuff to be a #2/#3 fantasy starter

3. Peter Bourjos OF - I love the much improved BB/K ratios this year, great sleeper for roto leagues. Platoon splits are a concern

4. Mike Trout OF - Another guy with speed and who should hit for average power, but much farther away than Bourjos

5. Randal Grichuk OF - Best case scenario, mashing outfielder for HR's AVG and RBI's. Doesn't offer much else

6. Garrett Richards RHP - Great stuff but got lit up in college, a project for the Angels to work on

7. Will Smith LHP - Someone to keep an eye on, great command

8. Tyler Skaggs LHP - Far away, all projection at this point.

9. Jordan Walden RHP - Potential is there but health puts him at the bottom of the list.

Next: A's

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TIGERS

1. Scott Sizemore 2B - Will be good for average, some power, some steals. Not too many legit second base prospects in the minors. Ready to contribute in 2010 full-time if the Tigers give him a chance.

I saw this and thought I'd share. Apparently he has a broken ankle and also tendon damage. It's starting to look questionable whether he'll be ready in time for spring training.

http://www.freep.com/article/20091026/SPOR...e-needs-surgery

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A's

  1. Brett Wallace 3B - Moving to 1B hurts his value but his bat is very special. More complete bat makes him better than Carter
  2. Chris Carter 1B - AVG is still a question mark, power and RBI potential is not. Might also move to the outfield
  3. Jemile Weeks 2B - Power/speed combo makes him more interesting to me than Carter and Wallace but hasn't performed well enough in the minors
  4. Adrian Cardenas 2B - I'm concerned Weeks will force him to move to 3B, where his potential isn't as promising for fantasy purposes
  5. Grant Green SS - Should be able to stick at short, and can do a lot of different things well. Not going to be a stud though.
  6. Grant Desme OF - Might be a roto star eventually, needs to cut down on K's. High ceiling
  7. Max Stassi C - Great offensive catcher that can play the position, but far away
  8. Corey Brown OF - Plagued by injuries but could break out next year. Like Desme, needs to cut down on the K's
  9. Arnold Leon RHP - I need more info on him but he's intriguing, sounds like a mid-rotation guy, could get a shot next year. A's fans?
  10. Michael Inoa RHP - Put him here so BP doesn't look too foolish. Just kidding, I love BP but I'm not waiting 4-5 years for a guy to contribute in one of my leagues. Ceilings still there though

A couple guys had to be left off. Next: Mariners

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What do you guys think between Wallace and Carter?

I'm still concerned Carter is going to be a guy who will kill your AVG, but that hasn't proven to be the case yet in the minors. Wallace doesn't have near the power, hasn't performed as well but is more of a pure hitter. I'm already regretting putting him over Carter. Thoughts? In OBP leagues of course, it's Carter without question.

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MARINERS

  1. Dustin Ackley OF - Star potential in average and steals, should have some pop as well.
  2. Michael Saunders OF - No star potential in any one category but will contribute in a lot of different ways, 15/15 or 20/20 candidate
  3. Adam Moore C - With Johjima gone Moore has a chance to show he can defend well enough behind the plate to start. With his bat he could be an above-average fantasy catcher
  4. Carlos Triunfel 3B - Basically missed all of 2009, still has potential though
  5. Tyson Gillies OF - Speed demon but not sure about his bat
  6. Matt Tuiasosopo 3B - Mariners will give him a look somewhere on the infield, most likely 3rd, for 2010. Bat is only decent at best, but if he can play second he might be intriguing
  7. Michael Pineda RHP - Pitched real well but missed a lot of time with arm trouble, #3 fantasy starter
  8. Juan Ramirez RHP - Numbers in the minors suffered from extreme hitting conditions, still a good arm to watch
  9. Phillipe Aumont RHP - Great arm, but as of now it looks like closer is best case scenario, and there are a couple other guys he will have to compete with (Fields, Aardsma, probably Morrow)
  10. Alex Liddi 3B - Fringe third base prospect for only the deepest of leagues

This one was difficult because there's so little to look at. Next: Rangers

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MARINERS

  1. Dustin Ackley OF - Star potential in average and steals, should have some pop as well.
  2. Michael Saunders OF - No star potential in any one category but will contribute in a lot of different ways, 15/15 or 20/20 candidate
  3. Adam Moore C - With Johjima gone Moore has a chance to show he can defend well enough behind the plate to start. With his bat he could be an above-average fantasy catcher
  4. Carlos Triunfel 3B - Basically missed all of 2009, still has potential though
  5. Tyson Gillies OF - Speed demon but not sure about his bat
  6. Matt Tuiasosopo 3B - Mariners will give him a look somewhere on the infield, most likely 3rd, for 2010. Bat is only decent at best, but if he can play second he might be intriguing
  7. Michael Pineda RHP - Pitched real well but missed a lot of time with arm trouble, #3 fantasy starter
  8. Juan Ramirez RHP - Numbers in the minors suffered from extreme hitting conditions, still a good arm to watch
  9. Phillipe Aumont RHP - Great arm, but as of now it looks like closer is best case scenario, and there are a couple other guys he will have to compete with (Fields, Aardsma, probably Morrow)
  10. Alex Liddi 3B - Fringe third base prospect for only the deepest of leagues

This one was difficult because there's so little to look at. Next: Rangers

I, for one, am glad you left Greg Halman off this list. Last year, some people were saying he was the next Alfonso Soriano with his power/speed combo...but lets face it...the guy will never be a big-league regular with that complete lack of plate discipline. It's actually kind of sad, because the guy clearly has some talent. Triunfel's a guy I think you're underrating a bit here. Yes, missing a full year of development hurts, but he's still super young for his level. I think he's a star in the making...and will certainly be more of an impact player than Adam Moore. Overall...nice job! I love seeing these lists.

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MARINERS

  1. Dustin Ackley OF - Star potential in average and steals, should have some pop as well.
  2. Michael Saunders OF - No star potential in any one category but will contribute in a lot of different ways, 15/15 or 20/20 candidate
  3. Adam Moore C - With Johjima gone Moore has a chance to show he can defend well enough behind the plate to start. With his bat he could be an above-average fantasy catcher
  4. Carlos Triunfel 3B - Basically missed all of 2009, still has potential though
  5. Tyson Gillies OF - Speed demon but not sure about his bat
  6. Matt Tuiasosopo 3B - Mariners will give him a look somewhere on the infield, most likely 3rd, for 2010. Bat is only decent at best, but if he can play second he might be intriguing
  7. Michael Pineda RHP - Pitched real well but missed a lot of time with arm trouble, #3 fantasy starter
  8. Juan Ramirez RHP - Numbers in the minors suffered from extreme hitting conditions, still a good arm to watch
  9. Phillipe Aumont RHP - Great arm, but as of now it looks like closer is best case scenario, and there are a couple other guys he will have to compete with (Fields, Aardsma, probably Morrow)
  10. Alex Liddi 3B - Fringe third base prospect for only the deepest of leagues

This one was difficult because there's so little to look at. Next: Rangers

Why isn't Joshua Fields a top 10 prospect? I thought he was there next closer.

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Why isn't Joshua Fields a top 10 prospect? I thought he was there next closer.

As I said, there are potentially four guys who could be Seattle's "next closer": Aardsma, Morrow, Fields, and Aumont. For fantasy purposes this reduces the value of Fields and Aumont significantly. I just like Aumont a bit better because he has a better fastball (not by much) and a bigger frame. There's not much difference between them, they should both contribute next year.

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I, for one, am glad you left Greg Halman off this list. Last year, some people were saying he was the next Alfonso Soriano with his power/speed combo...but lets face it...the guy will never be a big-league regular with that complete lack of plate discipline. It's actually kind of sad, because the guy clearly has some talent. Triunfel's a guy I think you're underrating a bit here. Yes, missing a full year of development hurts, but he's still super young for his level. I think he's a star in the making...and will certainly be more of an impact player than Adam Moore. Overall...nice job! I love seeing these lists.

Yeah well anytime I hear someone say "He could be a lot like Alfonso Soriano"... I stay far away B)

The bust rate for those kind of players is astronomical. Every now and then one will slip through the cracks. I like Moore because he's proven himself compared to Triunfel and he could make an impact right away next year at a scarce position. I certainly still believe in Triunfel's potential.

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What do you guys think between Wallace and Carter?

I'm still concerned Carter is going to be a guy who will kill your AVG, but that hasn't proven to be the case yet in the minors. Wallace doesn't have near the power, hasn't performed as well but is more of a pure hitter. I'm already regretting putting him over Carter. Thoughts? In OBP leagues of course, it's Carter without question.

First, I like your rankings and analysis, even if I disagree a bit with some of it. So thanks.

As for Carter and Wallace, I'd personally prefer Carter, since he's got such good raw power and I expect Wallace to move across the diamond.

He's got the potential to hurt you in average, but everything else about the bat looks great to me. His K rate is bad, but not so bad that I'd expect him to struggle greatly as a major leaguer.

Wallace's K rate isn't all that far behind Carter, and Carter has much more power upside that makes me dream of a RHed Ryan Howard.

I realize that ARL favors Wallace pretty heavily, but I see both players still making improvements. As long as he keeps improving his skills, I won't hold Carter's age against him much.

My question for you is:

what do you consider a reasonable range of projections for Ackley? He seems like a great bet to hit for average, and should possess good SB potential. His power ceiling, though, seems to be only average to slightly above average.

He's obviously a great prospect, but I feel he's a bit overrated for most fantasy leagues, since so much of his real-life value is tied into his high floor and potential to be a good defensive CF.

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First, I like your rankings and analysis, even if I disagree a bit with some of it. So thanks.

As for Carter and Wallace, I'd personally prefer Carter, since he's got such good raw power and I expect Wallace to move across the diamond.

He's got the potential to hurt you in average, but everything else about the bat looks great to me. His K rate is bad, but not so bad that I'd expect him to struggle greatly as a major leaguer.

Wallace's K rate isn't all that far behind Carter, and Carter has much more power upside that makes me dream of a RHed Ryan Howard.

I realize that ARL favors Wallace pretty heavily, but I see both players still making improvements. As long as he keeps improving his skills, I won't hold Carter's age against him much.

My question for you is:

what do you consider a reasonable range of projections for Ackley? He seems like a great bet to hit for average, and should possess good SB potential. His power ceiling, though, seems to be only average to slightly above average.

He's obviously a great prospect, but I feel he's a bit overrated for most fantasy leagues, since so much of his real-life value is tied into his high floor and potential to be a good defensive CF.

Interesting question about Ackley. I think his potential to be a good defensive CF comes from his elite speed, which is very relevant for fantasy leagues. I see him as a guy who can hit .320 in his prime years, with 50-60 steals and maybe 10-12 homers. Safeco is also better for lefties like Ackley so he has that going for him power-wise. I've seen him compared to Ichiro... obviously that's a tough comparison. Still, that kind of player is what, 5th/6th round pick? I don't think he's too overrated

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Is his raw speed really that highly regarded that he's got 50+ SB potential?

My impression was that his SB ceiling was more like 30 SBs, with his power ceiling being more like 20 HRs.

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Is his raw speed really that highly regarded that he's got 50+ SB potential?

My impression was that his SB ceiling was more like 30 SBs, with his power ceiling being more like 20 HRs.

BA has his speed as a 70, so he's fast enough. Obviously, there's more to swiping bags than just speed. The thing is the Mariners run A LOT under their new manager, they just don't have the kind of personnel that can steal a ton of bags, so if Wakamatsu is still around I think Ackley's going to get the green light more often than not.

For his power, Dave Cameron of USS Mariner compares him to Darin Erstad. Maybe 20-25 is in reach in his peak years, but

I expect an average of 15 or so for his career

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i couldn't find anything from BA saying his speed was a 70 (i share the base subscription with a couple buddies), but projectprospect had his speed in the 65-70 range:

http://www.projectprospect.com/article/200...scouting-report

I'd heard the Erstad comparison as well, which was part of the reason I pegged Ackley's ceiling around 30 (Erstad's MLB high was 28).

One thing that just occurred to me, that I haven't heard anything about, is that Ackley probably won't even end up in center. If Franklin Gutierrez can even put up mediocre offensive numbers, I can't imagine them moving him off of centerfield. To continue down this tangent, the guys' defense this year ranks up there with a young Andruw Jones as the best I've ever seen. As a Twins fan, I've been privy to seeing Puckett (overrated defensively, but still good), Hunter (very good defensively, but was also helped out by his reputation), Gomez (near-elite defense), and Span (good reads help his above-average speed).

If I'm a flyball pitcher, I'm signing with Seattle to capitalize on a short-term OF of Ackley, Gutierrez, and Ichiro. A couple years of padding the stats like Washburn did before his trade, and I'd be set to sign a big deal.

I'm going to shut up before I keep rambling... it's 4:30 am.

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i couldn't find anything from BA saying his speed was a 70 (i share the base subscription with a couple buddies), but projectprospect had his speed in the 65-70 range:

http://www.projectprospect.com/article/200...scouting-report

I'd heard the Erstad comparison as well, which was part of the reason I pegged Ackley's ceiling around 30 (Erstad's MLB high was 28).

One thing that just occurred to me, that I haven't heard anything about, is that Ackley probably won't even end up in center. If Franklin Gutierrez can even put up mediocre offensive numbers, I can't imagine them moving him off of centerfield. To continue down this tangent, the guys' defense this year ranks up there with a young Andruw Jones as the best I've ever seen. As a Twins fan, I've been privy to seeing Puckett (overrated defensively, but still good), Hunter (very good defensively, but was also helped out by his reputation), Gomez (near-elite defense), and Span (good reads help his above-average speed).

If I'm a flyball pitcher, I'm signing with Seattle to capitalize on a short-term OF of Ackley, Gutierrez, and Ichiro. A couple years of padding the stats like Washburn did before his trade, and I'd be set to sign a big deal.

I'm going to shut up before I keep rambling... it's 4:30 am.

Another possibility, while more remote, is Ichiro gets traded. He's making a lot of money, and he's going to decline eventually. This would be tough for Seattle to do for off-the-field reasons... but their hand may be forced. If this does happen, Gutierrez moves to right field where his arm is better than Ackley's, Ackley patrols center and Saunders patrols left. This isn't really fantasy relevant except in relation to Saunders, who in your scenario has no place in Seattle except as a fourth outfielder. That affects his prospect status for our purposes IMO - in real life of course, path shouldn't matter at all. In theory if he's valuable he will get traded, but sometimes players get bogged down and fantasy owners prefer a clear path to a murky one. Regardless, he will get time to prove himself while Ackley develops.

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RANGERS

1) Neftali Feliz RHP - No explanation needed

2) Justin Smoak 1B - Power's been disappointing so far but potential remains

3) Martin Perez LHP - Ace in the making, don't worry about his limited numbers in AA

4) Tanner Scheppers RHP - Concerned about the arm history, but high ceiling, might wind up as a closer.

5) Robbie Ross LHP - Great performance in A-ball, but as always must await results at higher levels.

6) Wilmer Font RHP - Another great performance in A-ball for a 19-year old, but scouting report says he's just a one-pitch pitcher right now. Both the above pitchers are here based on projection and have a long way to go.

7) Kasey Kiker RHP - #4 Fantasy starter

8) Wilfredo Boscan LHP - Not much upside here, another guy like Kiker who will be mid-rotation at best.

9) Tommy Mendonca 3B - Strikes out and hits home runs, doesn't do anything else (including walks). Doesn't bode well for his future. Still worth keeping an eye on.

10) Michael Main RHP - He got sick this year and I have no idea if that's why he pitched so horribly. I'll give him the benefit of the doubt because he has good stuff.

As you can see, tons of pitching. Good for the Rangers, but not my preference when it comes to fantasy prospects. Next: Braves

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Another possibility, while more remote, is Ichiro gets traded. He's making a lot of money, and he's going to decline eventually. This would be tough for Seattle to do for off-the-field reasons... but their hand may be forced. If this does happen, Gutierrez moves to right field where his arm is better than Ackley's, Ackley patrols center and Saunders patrols left. This isn't really fantasy relevant except in relation to Saunders, who in your scenario has no place in Seattle except as a fourth outfielder. That affects his prospect status for our purposes IMO - in real life of course, path shouldn't matter at all. In theory if he's valuable he will get traded, but sometimes players get bogged down and fantasy owners prefer a clear path to a murky one. Regardless, he will get time to prove himself while Ackley develops.

very true

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BRAVES

  1. Jason Heyward OF - Five-tool roto stud, arguably #1 prospect in all of baseball
  2. Freddie Freeman 1B - Just what the Braves need, wrist injury hurt him last year but great potential here with a wide-open vacancy at first.
  3. Julio Teheran RHP - VERY HIGH CEILING ARM, but also very far away
  4. Randall Delgado RHP - See above
  5. Mike Minor LHP - Mid-rotation, had a nice pro-debut.
  6. Mycal Jones SS - Slap hitting base stealing leadoff hitter is his ceiling, will his bat be good enough to avoid just being a bench player?
  7. Ezekiel Spruill RHP - Another mid-rotation type without great stuff, not much room for error, but great performance in the minors.
  8. Craig Kimbrel RHP - Possible closer, will be in the pen in 2010 at least. Soriano and Gonzalez leaving makes his prospects quite good
  9. Christian Bethancourt C - Offensive ceiling doesn't seem to be that high and he's so young, catchers can take awhile to develop in the minors. But if he reaches his potential he could be an impact fantasy player.
  10. Cole Rohrbough LHP - Not a great year but still good potential as a #3 starter, ratios were still solid. A little unlucky… needs to make progress though.

This one took awhile. Next: Nationals

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RANGERS

1) Neftali Feliz RHP - No explanation needed

2) Justin Smoak 1B - Power's been disappointing so far but potential remains

3) Martin Perez LHP - Ace in the making, don't worry about his limited numbers in AA

4) Tanner Scheppers RHP - Concerned about the arm history, but high ceiling, might wind up as a closer.

5) Robbie Ross LHP - Great performance in A-ball, but as always must await results at higher levels.

6) Wilmer Font RHP - Another great performance in A-ball for a 19-year old, but scouting report says he's just a one-pitch pitcher right now. Both the above pitchers are here based on projection and have a long way to go.

7) Kasey Kiker RHP - #4 Fantasy starter

8) Wilfredo Boscan LHP - Not much upside here, another guy like Kiker who will be mid-rotation at best.

9) Tommy Mendonca 3B - Strikes out and hits home runs, doesn't do anything else (including walks). Doesn't bode well for his future. Still worth keeping an eye on.

10) Michael Main RHP - He got sick this year and I have no idea if that's why he pitched so horribly. I'll give him the benefit of the doubt because he has good stuff.

As you can see, tons of pitching. Good for the Rangers, but not my preference when it comes to fantasy prospects. Next: Braves

You don't think Justin Smoak has found his swing after his performance at the Baseball World Cup he was the MOST VALUABLE PLAYER and hit .291 9 HR 22 RBI in 17 games.

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