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GretzGretzky

#1 prospect for 2011

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I asked the question about Jesus Montero in his thread, so why not have a larger discussion?

Who will be the #1 touted guy heading into next season?

Who's the guy on the cover of all the magazines, the can't miss prospect (who may miss, Gordon, Bruce etc.)?

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harper (assuming he signs) - and it ain't that close........best prospect since justin upton

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harper (assuming he signs) - and it ain't that close........best prospect since justin upton

i think so too. Dude was basically the number 1 prospect since high school.

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Would you say this is accurate?

1. Bryce Harper

2. Mike Trout

3. Desmond Jennings

4. Julio Teheren

5. Jesus Montero

But if Jeremy Hellickson still counts as a prospect I would put him at 2. Comparing Hellickson and Strasburgs careers will be interesting.

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There is no way it is Montero thats for sure, I am not saying he is not an elite prospect but not number 1, I would rank them like this....

1. Trout

2. Hellickson (if he is still MiLB eligible)

3. Jennings

4. Harper

5. Montero

6. Teheran/Ackley

I went with Harper at 4 simply cause he is not going to have any professional AB's going into next season. I like him to be the number by the midseason top 25 however.

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There is no way it is Montero thats for sure, I am not saying he is not an elite prospect but not number 1, I would rank them like this....

1. Trout

2. Hellickson (if he is still MiLB eligible)

3. Jennings

4. Harper

5. Montero

6. Teheran/Ackley

I went with Harper at 4 simply cause he is not going to have any professional AB's going into next season. I like him to be the number by the midseason top 25 however.

Why not Montero #1? He had a slow start in AAA this year but has been on fire for awhile now. His power/hit tool should be elite even if he ends up at 1B/DH. He could easily put up 30-40 homers a year in NYS.

I like Trout, but I would like to see him perform at the higher levels before ranking him #1. I think the SB will decrease the closer he gets to the bigs.

Also curious why you have Ackley so high? Doesn't the lack of power/speed concern you? I think I'd rather have Lawrie over Ackley, especially if we're ranking them for fantasy baseball.

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It probably will be Trout on most lists. Harper won't get the top spot without at least some innings under his belt...he'll be top 5 though. I think 1/2 will be Trout/Jennings

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I think Domonic Brown is going to get sent back down now that Victorino will be back so I'd give him top spot if he does.

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Yeah, next year's lists will be interesting and I'm guessing people's top 5's will vary a bunch. I'd put Harper reluctantly in the top spot merely because there isn't another great #1 prospect candidate. I bet Jennings will some consideration, especially if he goes into next season an opening day starter.

I think Mike Moustakas from the Royals will get some top 5 consideration. I'd argue he is KC's #1 prospect (close call though) and I think KC will be unanimously ranked #1 in the "best farm system" rankings.

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Desmond Jennings has really regressed this year. His power is down and his plate discipline has worsened considerably.

Last year: .318/.401/.487 (.169 ISO) 67/67 BB/KK

This year: .281/.356/.411 (.130 ISO) 35/57 BB/KK

I'm pretty sure he's great defensively, so that raises his value.

He's been hampered by a nagging shoulder problem and this may have affected his numbers.

Montero has really been destroying AAA since a very slow start. His numbers since June 11th (181 ABs):

.365/.433/.657 (.292 ISO) 11 HR 32 RBI 18 doubles 2 triples 22 bb/37 K

And remember he's only 20. Jennings is 23. Trout is 19.

I'd say the mixture of age + major league readiness makes Montero the #1 pick. If he continues to destroy AAA at the same pace I'd rate him higher than Brown.

1) Montero

2) Trout

3) Brown

4) Hellickson

5) Harper

6) Freeman

7) Moustakos

8) Teheran

9) Ackley

10) Belt

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Count me as one that simply does not get all of the Mike Trout love.

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Are Harper and Trout close enough to be considered the "top" prospects, at least for fantasy purposes?

I'm assuming this question as a fantasy tilt to it.

I think, for our purposes, you have to put Brown, Hellickson, Jennings and Montero at the top of the list.

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If I were to rank the players with the best chance at ROY in 2011 then Trout and Harper fall off the list. I'd say the top ROY candidates are:

AL

1) Jennings

2) Hellickson

3) Montero (still not sure if he'll break with the Yankees in ST or else he'd be #1)

NL

1) Brown

2) Freeman

3) Chapman

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Desmond Jennings has really regressed this year. His power is down and his plate discipline has worsened considerably.

Last year: .318/.401/.487 (.169 ISO) 67/67 BB/KK

This year: .281/.356/.411 (.130 ISO) 35/57 BB/KK

I'm pretty sure he's great defensively, so that raises his value.

He's been hampered by a nagging shoulder problem and this may have affected his numbers.

Montero has really been destroying AAA since a very slow start. His numbers since June 11th (181 ABs):

.365/.433/.657 (.292 ISO) 11 HR 32 RBI 18 doubles 2 triples 22 bb/37 K

And remember he's only 20. Jennings is 23. Trout is 19.

I'd say the mixture of age + major league readiness makes Montero the #1 pick. If he continues to destroy AAA at the same pace I'd rate him higher than Brown.

1) Montero

2) Trout

3) Brown

4) Hellickson

5) Harper

6) Freeman

7) Moustakos

8) Teheran

9) Ackley

10) Belt

Woaaaah, jumping the gun a little bit here with this guy? Chapman? Gibson? M Perez? He's top 50, no where close to being top 10.

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Brandon Belt 6'5" 195 lbs 22 years old

.369/.465/.636 in 401 ABs (split between A and AA)

17 HRs/36 doubles/10 triples/94 RBIs/20 SBs

72/78 BB/K

His walk rate is excellent. He's got above average speed. His power is fairly good and should only improve if he fills out his frame. He's also reportedly a very good defensive 1st baseman.

This is his first year of pro ball. The only reason people don't drool over him is because he wasn't on anybody's radar coming into 2010.

Who is putting up better numbers than him and why shouldn't he be rated in the top 10 (or 20 at the very worst)?

FWIW, I don't value pitching prospects as highly as hitters because history shows they have a higher failure rate (I look at the BA top 20 for the last 15 years).

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Montero destroying AAA pitching at 20 years of age tells me all I need to know about who the top prospect in baseball is.

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Count me as one that simply does not get all of the Mike Trout love.

HAs a very advanced approach at the plate despite his young age, is a 80 runner on the 20/80 scale and, this is the big question, but most scouts see 20+ hr potential down the line. Add all of that up as a CFer, and that's why there is a ton of love for his future production

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As far as real life goes I'd go with Brown at this point. Because he should provide good defense with an excellent arm. His offense should be fine as well, gets to play in a good park and all. I like Trout, but I'm worried about the environment he's hitting in (I believe its the same as the one Wood hit in 2005) and I have developed a bit of distrust about Angels prospects. While his stats are great, talent is plentiful, I won't hand him a No. 1 spot right now because of their past history and the low levels he is playing in right now.

As far as fantasy goes, I'd go with Montero, because that sort of production out of someone that will qualify at C most likely is excellent. He hasn't moved out of C, and I figure he'll atleast get enough chances behind the plate that he'll qualify for 2 years, which can be great. Coupled with a great park and an excellent lineup around him, and I think he's clearly the most valuable prospect fantasy wise right now.

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I don't know about Harper. No doubt he's good, but we haven't seen him play yet. I can tell you for sure BA won't be putting someone that's never played atop their rankings (see Strasburg last year).

I like Hellickson at the top. Been lights out in the MiLB and good at the Majors. Dom Brown is another one that's right up there. Jesus Montero is a wild card, probably top 5 but not number 1 with all the other candidates.

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Brandon Belt 6'5" 195 lbs 22 years old

.369/.465/.636 in 401 ABs (split between A and AA)

17 HRs/36 doubles/10 triples/94 RBIs/20 SBs

72/78 BB/K

His walk rate is excellent. He's got above average speed. His power is fairly good and should only improve if he fills out his frame. He's also reportedly a very good defensive 1st baseman.

This is his first year of pro ball. The only reason people don't drool over him is because he wasn't on anybody's radar coming into 2010.

Who is putting up better numbers than him and why shouldn't he be rated in the top 10 (or 20 at the very worst)?

FWIW, I don't value pitching prospects as highly as hitters because history shows they have a higher failure rate (I look at the BA top 20 for the last 15 years).

If we are playing that game, then Sands should be rated in the top 10 as well...

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Freddie Freeman's also 20 years old, and he's doing better in AAA in just about every stat.

http://www.baseball-reference.com/minors/p...id=monter001jes

http://www.baseball-reference.com/minors/p...id=freema002fre

Freddie Freeman doesn't have near the ceiling that Montero does. What Freeman doing is very impressive he has been one of the youngest players at every level that he has been at and has done pretty god damn well. In saying that I don't see him being a that good for playing 1st. He will do good don't get me wrong but the thing is as with all 1st base prospect is that they need to be monsters. He is going to be a very nice player he won't put up eye popping stats but he will be very nice. You can't compare him to Montero.

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He doesn't have the ceiling of Montero because he doesn't play for the Yankees. Freeman is indeed a monster, he has had injuries that have affected him the last two years but when healthy he's produced big time. Freeman has a very short, Utley-esque swing.

As a hitter I may be one of the few but I think he'll be better than Heyward. He's also regarded as a GG caliber 1B.

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