bogfella

Pitcher Value Touts

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Bog- I am interested to hear your thoughts on Haren. Forgive me if you mentioned it already, I did a search and didn't find your opinion. He definitely had issues with the long ball last year and was a bit unlucky. But his K-Rate was still excellent and he is being drafted much lower than last year. He is being drafted with Greinke and Gallardo and I see him with more potential for a 3.00 ERA season than those guys.

I think he belongs in the same general area as Greinke and Gallardo. Greinke is certainly a bounce back candidate off a sloppy season and Gallardo still has plenty of upside so they both deserve some optimistic looks. Haren might be considered a small notch above them, particularly early on, as he does sometimes fade some in the 2nd half.

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good thread - any thoughts on:

Oswalt - have another good year in him or is injury risk to high?

Hughes - 1st half or last?

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I'd be wary on Greinke. I like the guy, think he should bounce back, but I really worry about the Brewers defense. I personally really like Hughes.

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+Gio Gonzalez I got him at 183 overall and I think he will probably outperform his draft position. His stats improved as the year went on, he has some pretty sick movement on his fastball and his command of his + offspeed stuff appears to be improving. The fact that he won 15 games for Oakland is pretty impressive and I expect him to improve this year as he matures.

-Trevor Cahill Last year he put up some pretty amazing stats, but I don't think he can replicate them (18-8 2.98 ERA, 1.11 WHIP). His BABIP was .236 which I think has to come up. The k/9 was pretty low too at 5.40. He went 93 overall in my most recent draft and I just had to smile. I think he is a decent pitcher, but I think I will let someone else overpay.

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- Jeff Niemann - expect some regression here ... another one who is likely to be overrated on draft day

I have the opportunity to obtain Niemann in an AL only roto and I was considering it. Why the negative review of him?

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What do you guys think of Pelfrey? Solid pitcher, or just average?

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I have the opportunity to obtain Niemann in an AL only roto and I was considering it. Why the negative review of him?

Its not so much that I am totally negative on Niemann, I just think he tends to be over valued in many leagues. He shows some good things when he is on - a decent fastball and a decent curve - but I don't feel like he changes speeds as well as he should and he sometimes lacks command of the strike zone and leaves pitches up. He's looks imposing, but he is not overpowering enough to get by with either at the MLB level. Add in on and off nagging injuries and he just doesn't excite me enough to spend more than a late pick. If you can get him cheap, you could do worse as a back of your rotation guy, but it seems like he is more likely to be seen as a middle of the rotation option and I question the value there.

He needs to show me he is ready to take it up a notch and do it consistently.

RE: the question about Pelfrey ... see a few posts above.

Edited by bogfella

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What do you guys think of Pelfrey? Solid pitcher, or just average?

Here's his reply to someone else asking the same question (about 10 posts up from yours)

To be honest, I am pretty blah on Pelfrey. He has a better arm than his numbers would suggest, but he never has impressed me with his mound presence, and he doesn't really fool many hitters. He has a decent sinking fastball but none of his other pitches are what I would consider + offerings. With good, not great stuff, if you don't have at least 3 quality pitches you can throw at any time, getting through a lineup 3 or more times is always going to be problematic - he has 1 and occasionally 2.

Edited by thebroth

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good thread - any thoughts on:

Oswalt - have another good year in him or is injury risk to high?

Hughes - 1st half or last?

Best thing that's ever happened to Roy, he joined the Phillies.

Although last year's 2nd half didn't show it, he's clearly on the downside of his career IMO.

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Its not so much that I am totally negative on Niemann, I just think he tends to be over valued in many leagues. He shows some good things when he is on - a decent fastball and a decent curve - but I don't feel like he changes speeds as well as he should and he sometimes lacks command of the strike zone and leaves pitches up. He's looks imposing, but he is not overpowering enough to get by with either at the MLB level. Add in on and off nagging injuries and he just doesn't excite me enough to spend more than a late pick. If you can get him cheap, you could do worse as a back of your rotation guy, but it seems like he is more likely to be seen as a middle of the rotation option and I question the value there.

He needs to show me he is ready to take it up a notch and do it consistently.

Thanks, Bog. I think his value is increased a little in AL only. I may still go after him as a potential keeper. Thanks again!

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Hello Baseball Brothers,

I have few questions that have not been answered through my regular research circles and I'm hoping you can chime in.

Tim Lincecum

He lost velocity as the season wore on and by the World Series he was topping out at 92. Is anyone concerned by this? This is either mechanical or phyisical/structural and I suspect there is a shoulder issue amidst this disconcerting development. I've seen very little information on this... any light to be shed here would be greatly appreciated. I read a Sports Illustrated article on him and know his dad seems to have a handle on mechanics. If this is a shoulder issue, he could start hot than lose/gain velocity from start-to-start until he's finally toast. I saw this happen to Matt Morris as Cardinal and it's a sad thing to watch.

Zack Grienke

What happened to him last year? The story I'm getting is that he didn't lose velocity...but what then? He was unmotivated? Why should we expect a return to 2009 form? What does his shrink say?

Wandy Rodriguez

I was so high on him going into 2010 and then he gets shelled for the first half of the season. Then just as the most loyal were dropping him, Wandy flips the switch and turns it on. What happened? It seems mechanical/command related but I have seen no explanation for Wandy's Jeckel/Hyde performance of 2010.

Chad Billingsley

I saw him get lit up at Busch Stadium last year (2010) and he was barely hitting 91mph on the gun. Before you question the gun, Jason Motte was hitting 98 regularly later in the same game. Wasn't Billingsley able to hit 95mph in the not-too-distant past? Then peeps wonder why his K-rate is down. Why should we expect anything beyond 150K's, 3.70+ ERA?

That's what I've got. Any information and/or reference links you are kind enough to post is greatly appreciated!

Edited by Doc Hardwood

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Thanks, Bog. I think his value is increased a little in AL only. I may still go after him as a potential keeper. Thanks again!

Sorry, I missed the AL only note - yes in an AL only he would have a bit more value.

Also, I missed the question about Oswalt and Hughes:

In short, Oswalt is still solid and will benefit from pitching with that rotation again (there is something to be said for synergy in pro baseball and those guys will challenge each other to be at the top of their games every start) while I would cast my vote for 1st halfish on Hughes ... he will actually be somewhere between 1st half and 2nd half this year, but I see him taking a step forward and settling in as a reliable (don't read ace or elite here) fantasy starter.

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Awesome posts by bog thus far, as I just got caught up with this thread. Absolute man crush for me heading into this year is Gavin Floyd, and I know some people have been warning others to stay away. I'm sure RRF knows more about his arsenal and how it's been coming along this season, but his 2nd half last year was a spectacular turn around that I enjoy seeing in a pitcher that so many people gave up on early in the season, only to watch him bloom like a beautiful flower down the stretch.

I also think C.J. Wilson is a guy most people are staying away from, but for the wrong reasons. Are they scared of the inconsistency that we see in the 2010 game log and the fact that he was a converted reliever and added more innings last season? I saw a guy who IMO minus one or two starts always had excellent control and command. I'm not sure what his BABIP was last season, but he was just unlucky a bit last year that when he did hang the one meatball over the plate - it happened to be the 3-run jack. I believe he will be one of the more consistent pitchers this year with an excellent K/9. The proof was in the 2010 game log, he's pitched gems before. I'm not giving up yet.

My value list - you guys can agree and disagree, but tell me if there's certain guys you're absolutely staying away from, guys you'd rank above others, but this is my own personal cheat sheet of guys I believe will yield better results than their ADP's. I like to cut out the b.s. of projections and go for guys who are going to be studs and already are (guys who won't devalue themselves for 2011).

David Price

Justin Verlander (more wins in 2011, ERA and WHIP remain about the same in Detroit)

Cole Hamels (Hamels could get better, but still showed some control issues in 2010)

Tommy Hanson (better than Kershaw for 2011 I believe, has better ADP as well)

Chris Carpenter (until he reinjures himself, was quietly one of the best pitchers last year again) - edit: he strained his hamstring Tuesday

Dan Haren (2nd half fade may happen, but for what he did in Anaheim last season, I'm willing to gamble on a full season turnaround)

Max Scherzer (see other posts in this thread)

Shaun Marcum

Chad Billingsley

Brett Anderson

Phil Hughes

Madison Bumgarner

Matt Garza (his transition to the NL may help improve his numbers, but I'll never forget how bad he can be at times)

John Danks

Jeremy Hellickson

Jaime Garcia

Colby Lewis

Daniel Hudson

Jhoulys Chacin

Gavin Floyd

Johan Santana (if there's one Met worth owning, it's him, even if he comes back in July, he could be the guy to carry you in the 2nd half)

Derek Holland

Chris Sale

Mike Minor

Dallas Braden

Bud Norris

Michael Pineda

James McDonald

Sammy Gervacio

- One hitter I'm looking forward to hopefully breaking out, Nats Michael Morse. Hopefully he gets the playing time. Let me know your thoughts on this list, there are some later picks that are obviously sketchy and all about upside and innings limits, I also didn't include my relievers on here, but I think this is a fairly decent list of later round gems that I wouldn't consider a "wasted" pick.

Edited by Bush25

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Bog- he was discussed a few times but what are your thoughts on Colby Lewis and his sustained success in 2011? His improved K and BB rates are great to see and I do like what Texas does with their SP.

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Bog- he was discussed a few times but what are your thoughts on Colby Lewis and his sustained success in 2011? His improved K and BB rates are great to see and I do like what Texas does with their SP.

In general I too think Texas does a reasonably good job with their pitchers. As for Lewis, I really wasn't all that excited about him last year but I watched him pitch several times and each time I liked him better. The guy has definitely learned his trade. That said, I would actually put him slightly ahead of CJ Wilson on the Rangers staff and that should make him a decent value pick in most drafts. Arlington will always be a dangerous place to pitch, but I think he's up to it.

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Thanks, bog. That was my thinking as well. I still have my apprehensions as he has only been back in the States for a year but his ratios got better in the second half despite the fears he was "Falling to earth." Also, Arlington is far from a pitcher's park but playing the Mariners and As is nice.

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Please if you could name a few pitchers that you believe are great value picks later in the draft. Maybe some young guns who might bust out for big years or older guys looking for a bounce-back. I'm new to MLB.

Thanks!!

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I like getting guys who were injured last year. I grabbed Jair Jurrjens and Jorge De La Rosa; still injury risks but they were pretty late in the draft and could pan out.

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Here's some free ones and my favorites:

Kyle Drabek

Rick Porcello

Mike Minor

Michael Pineda

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Well, it looks like Brandon Beachy will be the fifth starter for the Braves.

Last year in the minors: 1.73 ERA, 120 innings/148 K's!

Did pretty well last year for 3 major league starts: 2 of them against the Phils.

From what i've read, good fastball, curve, changeup.

I'm taking a flier on the kid...so far the track record is pretty good plus Braves seem to get the most out of pitchers.

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Kyle Drabek Bod you like this kid for this year? I have heard a lot of good things about him over the year, but wonder if he is ready for the next step. Any opinion about him Bogfella?

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Kyle Drabek Bod you like this kid for this year? I have heard a lot of good things about him over the year, but wonder if he is ready for the next step. Any opinion about him Bogfella?

In a word, yes, I do like him for this year. His secondary stuff has come along to the point I think he will be able to handle left-handed hitters and that was my main concern. He is still learning and will have bumps in the road but he is a good one.

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Barely mentioned here but:

Anyone take a good look at Chris Narveson last year? Much improved pitches, better mix.

And was that a Cutter or a Slider? To my eye I can not tell, even by arm slot let alone grip. I know that's lame to admit but I own my flaws- and try as I might can't get anyone to buy them. I thought it was a Slider and others concur but an analyst I respect swears it's a Cutter that breaks like a Slider.

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Barely mentioned here but:

Anyone take a good look at Chris Narveson last year? Much improved pitches, better mix.

And was that a Cutter or a Slider? To my eye I can not tell, even by arm slot let alone grip. I know that's lame to admit but I own my flaws- and try as I might can't get anyone to buy them. I thought it was a Slider and others concur but an analyst I respect swears it's a Cutter that breaks like a Slider.

I am not quite sold on Narveson yet, but I need to see a bit more of him before passing judgment.

As for a cutter and a slider, they can be pretty hard to separate. They look similar (and the more similar they are, probably the better since the hitter will have the same problem we do in telling the difference). A cutter could probably be defined as something between a 4 seam fastball and a slider. It is thrown with a similar grip to the 4 seamer and generally has more velocity than a slider. The slider comes in slightly slower and tends to break more and earlier. Similarly, I kind of look at a slider as being somewhere between a cutter and a curve - cutter = harder, less break, later, slider = medium speed, a bit more break, earlier, and a curve = slower speed, much more break but the break starts earlier.

Not sure if that helped, but that's the closet I can come to a definition. lol

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I thought of what might be a better way to define a cutter vs. a slider:

Think of the cutter as a soft fastball with a little break and a slider as a hard curve with a little break.

That's why you sometimes see the people who coach young players encouraging the use of a cutter rather than a slider. Because the cutter is really a fastball with a slightly different grip, it doesn't put the stress on the elbow like a slider which is thrown like a curve but harder (which means very high stress).

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