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teamshameless

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The Rules are Simple!

- If you want to participate, just reply to this thread with the player you think should be ranked next on the draft list

- Rank the nba players based on a Single-Season, Traditional 9-catagory Fantasy League (either H2H or Roto)

- Each player needs 5 votes to be ranked (1-36), 4 votes to be ranked (37-84), and 3 votes to be ranked (84+)

- If you are the final deciding voter for a particular player, it's your duty to start the next thread, name it "#2" or "#18" or whichever # the NEXT pick is. in the body of the thread, copy/paste these directions along with an updated rankings list!

- You can vote ON BEHALF of others! Just cite a previous thread where any member voted for a player, and you can carry over thier vote to make the process faster! (please be specific when doing this). This also means you should be careful who you vote for, any of your votes can be quoted and used against you later!

1. Marion

2. KB24

3. KG

4. LBJ

5. Arenas

6. Dirk

7. Nash

8. ???

Swisher was supposed to post this, but no sense in waiting

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The next 10-15 picks should be really interesting. Yao, Amare, Kidd, Bosh, Gasol, Paul, Wade could all be argued. I don't trust Yao (or Bosh to a certain degree), Wade is out for a month or so, Kidd and Paul are intriguing, but I think Amare will make the step to solid 1st rounder this year and pick up his scoring and D.

Amare

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Yea, the next 10 picks are crazy. No question there.

So many question marks around Wade right now. Seems like december is his best case scenario.

I'll go with Amare. Seems way too early for him but he is the healthiest guy on the board right now. Wow, these picks at the end of the first round stink.

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Yea, the next 10 picks are crazy. No question there.

So many question marks around Wade right now. Seems like december is his best case scenario.

I'll go with Amare. Seems way too early for him but he is the healthiest guy on the board right now. Wow, these picks at the end of the first round stink.

Looking at these picks, I would much rather have 1-6 or 11-12 than 7-10. That way, at 11-12 you can get 2 of these guys, and none of them really make me want to pick any higher than that.

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Mmmmh ...

... i agree with you guys, those picks are starting to get tricky.

I don't like Amare that high, although he won't last much more in the board. Wade is out at very least for the first month, and Brand may not play again this season. Allen has changed teams, and may not be the primary focus on offense in Boston.

At this point, looking at last year's production, you could consider Kidd, Carter, Camby, Amare and Yao. Since Kidd and Camby have some healthy issues, and Carter does not deserve to go that high, it leaves me with Amare and Yao.

I'd take Yao over Amare, although he was injured for most of last year, i expect him to come back strong.

3 - Amare

1 - Wade

1 - Yao

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Good response, ces. I can't see any way I would vote for Amare over Yao. Amare's FG% is truly insane, but his FT% is an anchor and he doesn't do enough defensively, by way of blocks or steals, to make him a superstar center. He's basically a 2.5 cat assassin; points, FG%, and rebounds (which he doesn't even do all that well, to be honest).

By the way, I'm going to go home and check out my spreadsheet and change my answer. I didn't realize that Wade was going to be out a whole month of the season.

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Don't get me wrong, I'm not exactly thrilled to be choosing Amare at #8. But NO way would I take Yao here, I simply do not trust him to play more than 60 games and he has proven me right the last couple years with his constant foot/ankl/knee issues. He's approaching Camby land imo. A completely healthy Bosh would've been my choice, and even Gasol could get some love despite his ft%. Kidd was awesome last year, but still a ? for me, and Paul if healthy and w/ a full squad could really blow up w/ 20/10ast/4bd/2stl/1 3pt.

I just think Amare will grow more this year and give you 22-24/10-12/1.5blk/55%Fg/75-80%ft. He shot 78% at the line last year, hardly an "anchor". I don't really like him here, but w/ Wade and Brand out there isn't a clear choice right now. Man I would hate to get the 8th-10th pick...

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I changed my vote to Duncan. He's pretty close with Amare, but I have him ranked slightly higher.

Guys like Brand, Ray Allen, and Wade would all be higher if not for extenuating circumstances of one kind or another. I also had Rashard Lewis rated higher, but I am unsure what his performance is going to be like on a new team without the contract-year motivation. Also, you can get him later, so why pick him #8?

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I'd like to go with Duncan (I'd take him over Yao and Amare) but I'm gonna stray from the norm and say Carmelo Anthony. Even with Iverson I like him to take it to another level.

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Because Gil's been taken out of the equation....

My vote's on The Great Wall of China.

59 DNPs scare, but not enough to skip production with the ceiling at 27 ppg, 10 rpb, and 2 bpg with amazing FT %, best of any C I've seen, and great FG % as well.

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Look at Melo's production after AI got to town. He is still really great, but he went from 1.9 stls in november to under one. that is a huge drop and he was on the fence in terms of number of categories to begin with.

AI plays the passing lanes, which is what Melo did before he got there. You need superstar status and a good front line to do it. Both of them have it, but it seems to be AI's job.

Yao will be my next pick after Amare. Healthy, I'd take Yao no question, but Amare's surgically repaired knee seems to be slightly stronger than Yao's myriad of nagging problems.

Sticking with Amare

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Current vote count (updated 8/21/07 12:19 PDT):

Amare 4

Yao 2

Kidd 2

Carmelo 1

Duncan 1

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I like Kidd here, plus Ast, Reb (where he plays), Pts, Stl... bad TO and FG% but he is a consistent performer year in and out. Not sure if Vince or Camby have mentioned yet. I think Carmelo is a huge step down from these guys roto-wise. H2H maybe he's in the conversation. Muddied water for sure

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I'm taking Amare here. I think this is the right count:

Amare 4

Yao 2

Carmelo 1

Duncan 1

Kidd 1

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I was surprised that Amare came out way ahead of Yao in my spreadsheet after I looked at their numbers side-by-side. I went through and double-checked my math and here's what I found.

They were basically even taking into account FG% (Amare has the 4th most positive impacting FG%, Yao is 15th), FT% (Yao is positive impacting, Amare is basically neutral), 3PTM (nil for both), RPG (basically even) and APG (Yao has a slight edge, but they're both anchors). Amare pulls way ahead when you consider steals (Amare is basically neutral at 1.0 per game, Yao is a huge anchor at 0.4 per game; seriously, look at the players who averaged fewer steals per game and it's a short list filled with stiffs) and turnovers (Amare is bad at 2.8, but Yao is horrific at 3.5, which ranks him 8th in the league). Yao has edges in both PPG (25 to 20) and BPG (2.0 to 1.3) but they're not enough to overcome the deficiencies in TO and STL.

STL is a weird category to ignore from a first rounder because it's often the early-round talent that produces the bulk of your steals. If you look at the top 25 or so thieves from last year, the list is heavily populated with players who will be 1st-3rd round picks in your fantasy drafts this year.

Also, to get such a large number of turnovers from a player who doesn't contribute tangibly to assists is also troublesome.

Basically, by drafting Yao in the first round you accept huge negatives in TO (like most 1st rounders), STL and AST (unlike most 1st rounders). By drafting Amare in the first round, you only accept negatives in TO and AST. In a way, that makes him the "lesser of two evils." My statistical formula (ignoring position and based solely on last year's per-game stats and no other mitigating factors) ranked Amare 17th and Yao 27th. Obviously I would take both much higher than that, but I think the 10-12 range is more appropriate than 8-9.

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I was surprised that Amare came out way ahead of Yao in my spreadsheet after I looked at their numbers side-by-side. I went through and double-checked my math and here's what I found.

I think the biggest thing with Yao is games played. He continues to get injured every year. I read somewhere that he's had 59 (I think) dnp's the last two years. Granted Amare is off the knee surgery, but 82 games played last year turns that memory into short-term mode.

The biggest story with this pick (and probably the last one) is Elton Brand. RIP this year my past PF. A huge savior to my team in different leagues the past couple of years. What a shame he's out for most, or all, of this year.

Updated votes:

Amare 4

Yao 2

Carmelo 1

Duncan 1

Kidd 2

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Good points markdash and rotoking.

For first, i have to say that i don't play on leagues that use TOs, so my rankings do not include them. Earlier in the mock i voted for Marion over Kobe because of the TOs, since Kobe is better in 8-cat leagues to me, but i'm not sure i can go ahead considering TOs since i don't include them in my rankings.

In my statistical evaluation system for last year, based on averages and not including TOs, Amare ended up in the 9th place, while Amare was way back to the 35th. When you base it on totals, Amare goes up to the 14th, while Yao falls to 65th.

Point is, to me, that even with Amare getting better and Brand, Wade and Allen out of the picture for different reasons, it's tough to me to rank Amare that high.

Yao's bigger concern is games played, i agree, but while he's missed 59 games in the last two regular seasons, he just missed 2 games in his first 3 seasons in Houston. I don't like to select him that high, but i stick with him for another season. If he gets injured again this year, the i will be ready to put him in the Marcus Camby territory for next year.

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Time for someone to break the deadlock and switch their vote. I'd do it, but I already voted for Amare.

Let's get this thing moving.

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Time for someone to break the deadlock and switch their vote. I'd do it, but I already voted for Amare.

Let's get this thing moving.

Well, it is the offseason. I have no problem with just waiting until someone gets 5 votes (even if it takes a week or two). Once the season gets near, activity on the basketball boards will go way up and this contest will go into hyperdrive.

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I'll switch my vote to Duncan, but that won't change anything. Check the stats, Duncan is better than both Yao and Amare. Factor in Yao's game totals and turnovers (if they count) and he's out. Duncan's blocks and assists outweigh the small advantages Amare has.

Can somebody build a case not to take Duncan?

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I was surprised that Amare came out way ahead of Yao in my spreadsheet after I looked at their numbers side-by-side. I went through and double-checked my math and here's what I found.

They were basically even taking into account FG% (Amare has the 4th most positive impacting FG%, Yao is 15th), FT% (Yao is positive impacting, Amare is basically neutral), 3PTM (nil for both), RPG (basically even) and APG (Yao has a slight edge, but they're both anchors). Amare pulls way ahead when you consider steals (Amare is basically neutral at 1.0 per game, Yao is a huge anchor at 0.4 per game; seriously, look at the players who averaged fewer steals per game and it's a short list filled with stiffs) and turnovers (Amare is bad at 2.8, but Yao is horrific at 3.5, which ranks him 8th in the league). Yao has edges in both PPG (25 to 20) and BPG (2.0 to 1.3) but they're not enough to overcome the deficiencies in TO and STL.

STL is a weird category to ignore from a first rounder because it's often the early-round talent that produces the bulk of your steals. If you look at the top 25 or so thieves from last year, the list is heavily populated with players who will be 1st-3rd round picks in your fantasy drafts this year.

Also, to get such a large number of turnovers from a player who doesn't contribute tangibly to assists is also troublesome.

Basically, by drafting Yao in the first round you accept huge negatives in TO (like most 1st rounders), STL and AST (unlike most 1st rounders). By drafting Amare in the first round, you only accept negatives in TO and AST. In a way, that makes him the "lesser of two evils." My statistical formula (ignoring position and based solely on last year's per-game stats and no other mitigating factors) ranked Amare 17th and Yao 27th. Obviously I would take both much higher than that, but I think the 10-12 range is more appropriate than 8-9.

I'll agree that Amare's stats look a little polished compared to Yao's, but also realize that nearly 19 games of those for Yao's was because he was the lone option with TMac out. The TOs are always going to be an issue if you're the lone option on an offense-starved team like the Rockets. Of course, with that in perspective, Amare also had problems with rehab of his knee and slowly being brought back to speed, but I think being the first/second option for points compared to Yao's number one status on the Rockets might draw me slightly away. Not too far..

Just for simplicity, however, I'll switch my vote to Amare.

5-Amare.

done.

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