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Tim Lincecum 2012 Season Outlook

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I know his numbers and velocity have been declining a bit, but despite the trend I think his numbers could easily improve this year. You have to remember he was coming off of a long playoff heading into last season. Generally speaking this guys mechanics are really solid, so injury risk is pretty low, and he could show the benefit of some added rest going into this year. I think if there's a time to buy low on Tim Lincecum it's this year. He's only 27....and despite his "decline" last two years he's still putting up top 10 pitching numbers.

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IMO still one of the top handfull of starting pitchers in the game. Doesnt get much run support, so that hurts the wins a bit, because his pitching numbers are good enough to have 20+ wins every year, its just the Giants brass doesnt know how to build a ball club.

One thing i look at is his contract situation, he could of gone the "safe" long-term route trading security and giving up some dollars, instead this guy has said, lets go year to year or shorter deals and I will maximize my value because I will continue to produce.

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No one in that division have really improved all that much, with the exception of Arizona (possibly). The NL West still have some pretty anemic offences too in SD and LAD (and SF included in that). Win totals are pretty difficult to gauge with any certainty for any starter, so with my best guesstimate for Timmy, I would go with the following:

15 wins

215 k's

2.92 ERA

1.18 WHIP

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I think the Linceceum debate basically comes down essentially to ADP/value this year. I owned him for $30 in an auction keeper league (essentially mid-late second round value), and as elite as the ERA and Ks were that he provides, I dont think I'd pay that steep a price for him again. The lack of wins and 1.21 WHIP just do not justify the high price tag. Big Papi's projections above look about right though. On the plus side however, the emergence of guys like Weaver and Kershaw may actually help increase his value in that he could slip a few bucks cheaper/draft slots later.

Edited by malta69

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On the plus side however, the emergence of guys like Weaver and Kershaw may actually help increase his value in that he could slip a few bucks cheaper/draft slots later.

I can't agree with you more. I can see his Lincecum actually being a little bit undervalued this year.

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I'm buying on Lincecum...he's definitely got some company in the elite tier now, but his big K-rate makes him very attractive.

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I agree that he is a value pick this year.

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LIncecum's agent I feel did his client a disservice.

http://www.nbcbayarea.com/blogs/the-cove/Tim-Lincecum-Contract-Rumors-Five-Years-100M-137886938.html

If this is true that's ALOT of coin to turn down. Especially with the frame and long term durability. He can command more annually this year in arbitration but I'd think that's a damn good extrension.

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LIncecum's agent I feel did his client a disservice.

http://www.nbcbayare...-137886938.html

If this is true that's ALOT of coin to turn down. Especially with the frame and long term durability. He can command more annually this year in arbitration but I'd think that's a damn good extrension.

I agree 100%...I just think the Tim Lincecum we saw last season, a very good pitcher - is who he is. Not the Tim Lincecum of '08 and '09 which was absolutely insane good. The dude's an ace, no doubt. But with declining velocity, declining K rate for 4 years, and increasing walk rate for 3 years - I think he's best years are behind him.

The velocity isn't coming back, and per fangraphs his fastball is no longer grading out to be a plus option, it's actually a below average option. When Timmy threw 94-95 and grabbed 97 when he needed it he didn't have to be fine with his command considering how devastating his change is, and his slider is pretty damn good too. Now when he is sitting at 90-92, and dailing up to 94 at times he has to worry about being more pinpoint with his control(displayed in that increasing walk rate). When The Freak gets ahead of guys, forget about it, they are forced to commit to swing at his plus change and slider offerings. Tim's problem is he's having a more difficult time getting ahead of guys now with a velocity reduction, league familiarization(guys reading a laying of that change early in counts), and not the best command in the world. His command really struggles when his complicated delivery gets out of whack, happened last two seasons. He threw the towel in on throwing from the wind-up the final two months of last season due to mechanical issues.

So setting this straight, I really like Timmy as a fan and a fantasy owner for 2012. Still has great stuff, pitches in a great pitchers park, and in a weak division full of pitchers parks. I can see him also possibly being a value pick this season due to so much attention of other SP. That being said, he should have taken that deal. That's huge money, guaranteed. I don't think his skill level in upcoming years is going to get him more money, he fits very well in SF, and every pitcher seems to get hurt at some point.

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I agree 100%...I just think the Tim Lincecum we saw last season, a very good pitcher - is who he is. Not the Tim Lincecum of '08 and '09 which was absolutely insane good. The dude's an ace, no doubt. But with declining velocity, declining K rate for 4 years, and increasing walk rate for 3 years - I think he's best years are behind him.

The velocity isn't coming back, and per fangraphs his fastball is no longer grading out to be a plus option, it's actually a below average option. When Timmy threw 94-95 and grabbed 97 when he needed it he didn't have to be fine with his command considering how devastating his change is, and his slider is pretty damn good too. Now when he is sitting at 90-92, and dailing up to 94 at times he has to worry about being more pinpoint with his control(displayed in that increasing walk rate). When The Freak gets ahead of guys, forget about it, they are forced to commit to swing at his plus change and slider offerings. Tim's problem is he's having a more difficult time getting ahead of guys now with a velocity reduction, league familiarization(guys reading a laying of that change early in counts), and not the best command in the world. His command really struggles when his complicated delivery gets out of whack, happened last two seasons. He threw the towel in on throwing from the wind-up the final two months of last season due to mechanical issues.

So setting this straight, I really like Timmy as a fan and a fantasy owner for 2012. Still has great stuff, pitches in a great pitchers park, and in a weak division full of pitchers parks. I can see him also possibly being a value pick this season due to so much attention of other SP. That being said, he should have taken that deal. That's huge money, guaranteed. I don't think his skill level in upcoming years is going to get him more money, he fits very well in SF, and every pitcher seems to get hurt at some point.

He is only 27 and well past the injury nexus. It's possible that we will never see the dominant Timmy of 2009 or 2010 again but he is still an elite pitcher. He'll easily make more in the open market so I don't think it's crazy for him to turn down the offer.

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There has been a lot of talk about Lincecum's declining stats over the last couple of years. I know his stats have declined and typically I would be more worried about declining KK/BB but he has such a solid delivery that I'm just not sold on projections of this guy continuing to decline. In my mind he's a stud. Period. He's still fairly young and I could see him having a nice rebound in his K/BB ratio this year. I'll even go out on a limb and say that a rebound would be more likely than continued regression given he has put up some absolutely ridiculous numbers in the past.

Basically I'm chalking last year's stats to post World Series off-season partying and think he will be refocused for this year (A-la Rihanna-less Matt Kemp Circa 2011).

Bottom line: Studs are studs and I think he can be gotten at a good price in keeper and re-draft leagues.

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I am high on mental motivation with players like Lincecum. He and his agent rebuffed some hefty extensions from the Giants front office this winter. I think in his mind he knows he needs to turn the engines on full board if he wants to force the Giants or any team to pay him the Sabathia type money and he'll be ready to dominate as he did his first couple seasons. And while I think he personally was crazy to turn down the 4 year extension offer he receivered for over 20 ml a year given his body type he really has defied those skeptics and never really been hurt. He just has these random months where he gets slammed around the last couple seasons. Its still hard to rank him over guys like Halladay, Verlander, Kershaw and Lee. But he's at the top of the next 5. If the Giants can find a way to add a run a game support he should get back up to the 18-19 win plateau.

Btw I think we have a thread already for him so a mod might want to combine this into it.

Edited by GreenGold74

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those with DVRs or no day job/school can get a good look at Lincy via ESPN2 today. last outing or 2 were of the minor league variety. i love the "Timmy crowd". people with long hair, the smell of grass in the air, dudes skateboarding to the park, not real baseball fans but there to tip a few back and have fun in the sun. you don't get that vibe with good ol' boys Cain or Bummy.

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I am high on mental motivation with players like Lincecum. He and his agent rebuffed some hefty extensions from the Giants front office this winter. I think in his mind he knows he needs to turn the engines on full board if he wants to force the Giants or any team to pay him the Sabathia type money and he'll be ready to dominate as he did his first couple seasons. And while I think he personally was crazy to turn down the 4 year extension offer he receivered for over 20 ml a year given his body type he really has defied those skeptics and never really been hurt. He just has these random months where he gets slammed around the last couple seasons. Its still hard to rank him over guys like Halladay, Verlander, Kershaw and Lee. But he's at the top of the next 5. If the Giants can find a way to add a run a game support he should get back up to the 18-19 win plateau.

Btw I think we have a thread already for him so a mod might want to combine this into it.

Good post. I think he is going to have a monster year and I wish I had him. Lost weight = less ganja and Doritos.

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I'd rather take Hamels and Greinke so I won't be owning tiny Tim, unless he's in the midst of a control slump that he's had the past two seasons and I swoop in on the buy low.

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I am high on mental motivation with players like Lincecum. He and his agent rebuffed some hefty extensions from the Giants front office this winter. I think in his mind he knows he needs to turn the engines on full board if he wants to force the Giants or any team to pay him the Sabathia type money and he'll be ready to dominate as he did his first couple seasons. And while I think he personally was crazy to turn down the 4 year extension offer he receivered for over 20 ml a year given his body type he really has defied those skeptics and never really been hurt. He just has these random months where he gets slammed around the last couple seasons. Its still hard to rank him over guys like Halladay, Verlander, Kershaw and Lee. But he's at the top of the next 5. If the Giants can find a way to add a run a game support he should get back up to the 18-19 win plateau.

Btw I think we have a thread already for him so a mod might want to combine this into it.

You are right about the bad patches, I paid $21 for him the other night ($130 cap) but there was major pitching scarcity and I wanted one frontline guy (actually wanted 2 but inflation made that impossible)

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Owning Lincecum has come to mean riding out a cold streak midseason. He's still elite, but he requires patience.

For what it's worth, on the subject of his mechanics and whether they are good or not good, an ESPN article on the rise of Tommy John surgeries contains the following quote:

"If a team can win in the interim, like the Giants have done with
and his radically tilted delivery -- which critics view as a time bomb -- it's managed to get its money's worth. "That's exactly the theory," concedes Astros pitching coach
. "It works until it doesn't."

Would I still take the shot on Tim this year? Of course. But if I've got him and the other top 5 guys to pick from, I'm going elsewhere. A little bit out of fear that the cold streak gets longer and/or he succumbs to injury, and a lot out of fear that the Giants' woes on offense rob him of some Ws.

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Owning Lincecum has come to mean riding out a cold streak midseason. He's still elite, but he requires patience.

For what it's worth, on the subject of his mechanics and whether they are good or not good, an ESPN article on the rise of Tommy John surgeries contains the following quote:

"If a team can win in the interim, like the Giants have done with
and his radically tilted delivery -- which critics view as a time bomb -- it's managed to get its money's worth. "That's exactly the theory," concedes Astros pitching coach
. "It works until it doesn't."

Would I still take the shot on Tim this year? Of course. But if I've got him and the other top 5 guys to pick from, I'm going elsewhere. A little bit out of fear that the cold streak gets longer and/or he succumbs to injury, and a lot out of fear that the Giants' woes on offense rob him of some Ws.

That was a great article, but to include Lincecum was stupid. I commented in the comments section (Larry Yocum). Lincecum doesn't do the inverted W and is already past the trouble years for the majority of TJ surgeries. He is a prime example of a guy that uses an overstride and doesn't put pressure on the elbow. I felt that anyone that was afraid of his mechanics doesn't understand mechanics and the article lost a touch of credibility in my mind by including him. He falls more in line with Maddux, Ryan, and RJ as guys that don't to the inverted W and had long careers as a result.

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That was a great article, but to include Lincecum was stupid. I commented in the comments section (Larry Yocum). Lincecum doesn't do the inverted W and is already past the trouble years for the majority of TJ surgeries. He is a prime example of a guy that uses an overstride and doesn't put pressure on the elbow. I felt that anyone that was afraid of his mechanics doesn't understand mechanics and the article lost a touch of credibility in my mind by including him. He falls more in line with Maddux, Ryan, and RJ as guys that don't to the inverted W and had long careers as a result.

I didn't really understand this phrase. TJ surgery can get anyone at any time. It obviously is more likely to affect you if you pitch more which in my opinion makes Lincecum even more likely of a candidate. With that being said I am not predicting him to go under the knife at all but a pitcher who has not had TJ and throws a lot of IP is more likely to go under than pitchers under other circumstances.

It seems most people, even experts and pitching coaches, don't really understand Lincecum's mechanics at all though. They are naiive to it because it is new to them, so I guess they just assume the worst. That Doug Brocail quote can be said for a majority of pitchers in the league except for maybe Roy Halladay. Halladay is so different than most pitchers because he knows his game and his body inside out. When Halladay felt that he needed strength in his lower body to deal with the extra fatigue pitching in the playoffs he focused on it in the offseason. The only other pitcher that really seperates themself like that is Lincecum in the sense that there is nobody else like him. From what I gathered about Lincecum his delivery is focused more on his stride and coiling his body. It is trully a full body delivery and I would imagine that puts less stress on the elbow/shoulder than pretty much every other pitcher out there.

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I didn't really understand this phrase. TJ surgery can get anyone at any time. It obviously is more likely to affect you if you pitch more which in my opinion makes Lincecum even more likely of a candidate. With that being said I am not predicting him to go under the knife at all but a pitcher who has not had TJ and throws a lot of IP is more likely to go under than pitchers under other circumstances.

It seems most people, even experts and pitching coaches, don't really understand Lincecum's mechanics at all though. They are naiive to it because it is new to them, so I guess they just assume the worst. That Doug Brocail quote can be said for a majority of pitchers in the league except for maybe Roy Halladay. Halladay is so different than most pitchers because he knows his game and his body inside out. When Halladay felt that he needed strength in his lower body to deal with the extra fatigue pitching in the playoffs he focused on it in the offseason. The only other pitcher that really seperates themself like that is Lincecum in the sense that there is nobody else like him. From what I gathered about Lincecum his delivery is focused more on his stride and coiling his body. It is trully a full body delivery and I would imagine that puts less stress on the elbow/shoulder than pretty much every other pitcher out there.

TJ can get anyone at any time. This is true.

However, I believe that if we did a study, we would find that that the overwhelming majority come early in a guys' career because of their mechanics. So, if we studied 200 TJ's, I'd be willing to bet that 150+ of them came between the ages of 18-23. Guys that have poor mechanics find out early because they have arm problems. Usually we don't see those guys become absolute horses out there and rack up 120 pitch counts consistently through a 10 year period without a blip like TJ. Lincecum has never had an arm issue and has had insane pitch counts (I actually do think they are abusive) all the way back to his days at Washington. Usually, the more predictable thing is what we saw with Strasburg where the guy with terrible mechanics can't even get through his first season and breaks down early.

There will always be exceptions like Tim Hudson (who was overpitched in Oakland) or Adam Wainwright (who some of us predicted would break down), but the overwhelming majority come early in the career with guys with poor mechanics.

I think guys that have thrown as much as Lincecum or say a Justin Verlander or Roy Halladay show early on that they don't have harmful mechanics and that is why they can rack up big pitch counts. If Lincecum were going to break down like people have predicted from day one, it would have happened already is my point. There is little pressure on his elbow. I think if he goes, it will be his back and legs that give him issues first with that delivery.

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Timmy did not look great today but his and Bochy's body language said they were still not worried. he wanted to work on his FB command today but he was not sharp with any pitches. oh well, he flies to SF for a few days and then flies right back to Phoenix for the opener lol. lets get it on.

*he had a perfectly executed butcher boy today that even had sullen Bochy smiling.

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