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ChrisFarley

Derek Holland 2012 Season Outlook

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What are your projections for him this year? He was erratic last year, but showed the ability to dominate... 4 shutouts during the regular season + playoff gem. The concern is that he threw 70+ innings more than the previous year. However his stuff is amazing til the very end. Is Holland a potential ace?

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His velocity increased from 92MPH in 2010 to 94 MPH last year, and he also posted an era of 3.04 in second half last year. He was also like 14-5 last year... don't forget that, so if he can post a 3.00 -3.5 era we might be lookin at 18-20 wins if healthy.

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I think he's got a great chance at being an ace. But I'm still expecting some bumps along the way that come with playing in Texas.

But I think 200 IP, 170K, 3.60ish ERA and a bunch of wins if you're into that sort of thing.

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I'm buying

Ladies and gents that seals it - seriously, this is the man who turned me onto Matt Moore prior to last year's blitzkrieg through MiLB, he knows his pitching

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Well cool then, I got him tonight in a new dynasty league. I think the bumps in the road will reduce some, still young, and starting in 2013 he gets to pitch a majority of his games Vs M's, A's, and Stros, haha.

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I'm selling. He had the #1 highest strand rate of any pitcher last season, I think you'll see his ERA come up this season.

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I'm selling. He had the #1 highest strand rate of any pitcher last season, I think you'll see his ERA come up this season.

strandrate is a mainstream glorified sabrematic sexy stat that just dosnt mean a lot from year to year.

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strandrate is a mainstream glorified sabrematic sexy stat that just dosnt mean a lot from year to year.

oh and i'm buying

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I'm selling. He had the #1 highest strand rate of any pitcher last season, I think you'll see his ERA come up this season.

You might have an argument if it were true but...

http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=pit&lg=all&qual=y&type=8&season=2011&month=0&season1=2011&ind=0&team=0&rost=0&players=0&sort=12,d

I think the biggest factors are his velocity, control, and keeping the ball on the ground. But if his MDP stays around 162 as it is now, then he would be solid #3.

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I am not sure where he stands? He looks great then looks pretty bad. I think the post about a solid #3 hits the nail right on.

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strandrate is a mainstream glorified sabrematic sexy stat that just dosnt mean a lot from year to year.

Question on strand rate: how much of it is impacted by poor relievers' performance? Has anyone ever seen data that breaks this out?

If a starter departs with 2 men on base and 2 outs, and the reliever proceeds to yield a 2 run double, the starter's strand rate is negatively impacted.

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Holland's was only 73%... His FIP was right in line with actual ERA...

I think if healthy, you can expect an FIP around 4 again, with the potential for better. 15 wins with an 3.80 ERA and 7.5K/9 is pretty good if you can get him after pick 200.

In any case, I don't like that often I see people just dismiss players' good or bad performances by automatically citing BABIP and LOB% without any other data and assume that that player is lucky or unlucky.

Those numbers by themselves don't necessarily mean anything without other supporting data.

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Holland is a guy who really the numbers painted a pretty accurate picture of who he is when you look at the underlying statistics. I think people lose sight of how young this guy is because he has been pretty highly touted for awhile. He didn't enjoy instant success and now days that leads people to just saying bust and waiting for the next flavor of the month to pop up.

But consider he is only 25 and has only made about 60 career major league starts and I think that he has considerable upside. Most guys really see their value inflated with good late season pushes and Holland really hasn't. I think his value has been reduced because some people are wagering he may not make the rotation out of Spring training, I have zero concerns on this because despite all the arms the Rangers have he is the only lefty, pretty sure he can stick on that alone.

I would rank him right around 35 as far as SP are concerned. A fringe SP3 in 12 team mixers. He can be had much cheaper than that so I think considerable value to be had with this guy.

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Holland is a guy who really the numbers painted a pretty accurate picture of who he is when you look at the underlying statistics. I think people lose sight of how young this guy is because he has been pretty highly touted for awhile. He didn't enjoy instant success and now days that leads people to just saying bust and waiting for the next flavor of the month to pop up.

But consider he is only 25 and has only made about 60 career major league starts and I think that he has considerable upside. Most guys really see their value inflated with good late season pushes and Holland really hasn't. I think his value has been reduced because some people are wagering he may not make the rotation out of Spring training, I have zero concerns on this because despite all the arms the Rangers have he is the only lefty, pretty sure he can stick on that alone.

I would rank him right around 35 as far as SP are concerned. A fringe SP3 in 12 team mixers. He can be had much cheaper than that so I think considerable value to be had with this guy.

This. Great post I will be targeting him in all of my leagues I think he has great value

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Yeah, I've been mock drafting like crazy to keep from going nuts and I'm noticing that he falls through the cracks 9 of ten times to my 4th or 5th pitching slot. 4th pitcher? Heck yeah!

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got him in the 230's. pretty happy.

I need him on my team, if I could grab him in the 230s it would be amazing.

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It's funny, I'm sure a lot of people downgrade him because he plays in Texas. However, you really should upgrade him because he plays for Texas. The Rangers are supposed to be great this year, i.e. unstoppable offense, excellent defense, which should bode well for anyone with a modicum of talent that is slated to make 30 starts for the Rangers.

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He certainly gives a hilarious interview.

I've gotten him for like 2-3 bucks or on the wire in several auction leagues....total bargain.

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How much faith is worth putting in Holland in a H2H league??

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How much faith is worth putting in Holland in a H2H league??

this kid is the real deal period... he is the next cole hamels type player.... great numbers last year considering... awesome postseason... and this year similar numbers with a better era

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Love Holland. My only concerns about him are the huge jump in IP last year and his ballpark.

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Love Holland. My only concerns about him are the huge jump in IP last year and his ballpark.

Yes the innings jump is a concern. Even with a 4 ERA, he could win 15+ given that offense behind him. I wish the Rangers had a better closer, but being a contender, one would think they would make the switch if it ain't working.

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