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BIG SKI

George Springer - OF HOU

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Also I'm going on record now, I'm thinking Alf soriano the 2002 2003 years in this guys prime with a .270 ish avg.

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I know a lot of people are trying to compare him to a current major leaguer, so I'll take a shot at it too. I would probably compare him to Austin Jackson during his rookie season, but with more power. Austin Jackson struck out 170 times in 618 ABs, that's a 27.5% K rate, but he still managed a .293 average. I don't think Springer will have that average, he's probably a .260-.270 hitter, but just because a player strikes out a lot does not mean they cannot put up a fair average. He should hit solid power, steal a good amount of bases and as long as your league doesn't count Ks against you (I know points leagues sometimes do) he should definitely be rosterable. In his prime I could see him having a shot at 30/30 type numbers with a .270 average. His K rate will probably always be high, but he's going to be a player who contributes across the board.

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There are lots of people in here who want to believe this guy will be an outlier and overcome his strikeout deficits at the major league level (I'm assuming you guys think he's so fast and hits the ball hard enough to score very very high BABIPs). All I'd like to add is that almost all the comps you guys are tossing out had bad strikeout rates in the Major Leagues, and not so much in the minors. Springer's minor league k-rate is comparable to (and actually worse than) Adam Dunn's early big league strikeout rates and to Russell Branyan's early minor league rates. Guys, those rates are only going to ramp up once he hits the majors. He's probably going to be striking out in well over 30% of his at bats, and that's a threshold that is going to surely hinder him at the big league level in terms of batting average. He strikes me as the type of guy who may see initial success as he hits a few home runs early before the league realizes where his holes are, and then the hammer falls and he quickly moves to the Mendoza line. I have a very tough time seeing him hit better than .200-.220 until he at least starts to get his K's under control. He's like Pedro Alvarez with speed, and that scares the crap out of me as an owner interested in competing in batting average.

It's very difficult to identify an outlier -- especially before he even hits the majors. Springer seems like a guy who may eventually find some success in the big leagues, but it seems likely to take him very many years of whittling down his strikeout rates before he resembles anything like what many of you seem ready to portend for him immediately.

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Then again, maybe he IS an outlier. Maybe he turns into vintage Ryan Howard with the bat only with speed. I know there's ability in there to be a star and maybe even a superstar. But holy cow it sure is tough to know outliers ahead of time.

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Re: high K rates, BP or FG (can't recall which) did an excellent piece on how MILB K rates are indeed very worrisome, but outliers could be ID'd on the following 2 principles:

1. Are they simply too young for the level of competition at their stage of development?

2. Is there a fixable pitch recognition issue (LASIK to improve 20/30 or 20/40 eyesight to 20/20 <or better>)?

For example, it's why Miguel Sano's K rate doesn't seem to worry most scouts, because he's so young for his stage of development & level of competition.

Why do I bring this up with Springer? Well, at first glance, you may say, he's 22-23, from college, so his K rate is likely set in stone. The only glimmer of hope is that because he came from a northern college, he's way behind in the # AB's vs. high-level NCAA competition (think low-high A ball levels), so he has been pretty much thrown to the wolves since he was drafted by the aggressive promotions to High-A last year, then AA this year. The increase in his BB rate suggests that he is starting to adjust, so there is hope the K rate will improve. But make no mistake, it will need to be better than 30 percent at the AA/AAA level to portend early success in the big leagues. Even if players end up as outliers, such as Chris Davis (whose K rates were between 25-30 percent even when he hit .300 there), there's a mega-painful learning curve ahead of them in the Big Show - and again, as referenced, many fail to adjust.

I think there's clearly power/speed, the issue is how well his hit tool will translate to the MLB long-term. Because HOU is so bad, there's no doubt when he's ready and service time has been dealt with, he'll be up - but because HOU is so bad there's a chance he might get his clock delayed to 2014. Whereas most prospects with Springer's ceiling get delayed for callup for business reasons to reduce future salary, it certainly would not hurt him to develop more in AA, and the fact he's not on the 40-man roster may hinder HOU's willingness to call him up (unless they can transfer someone to 60-day DL, as they won't be inclined to cut any assets from the 40-man roster - when you're this bad, every asset counts - getting a 60-day DL transfer might do the trick).

The big test - what happens when the other big Super-2 callups get the nod (Myers, Taveras, Wheeler, Cole, etc.). If he's not up with them, then expect Sept. 2013 as the earliest, and maybe even 2014 (after the 2-3 weeks you need to get an extra year of service time). Tough to say it, but given how bad HOU is, and no shot to contend, we've seen it before many times.

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Is there actually a chance he gets the call this year?

I think like 95 percent he will see at least a Sept call up. I wouldn't be shocked if he came up in June though.

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Astros attendance has to be miserable, I say they call him up mid June to bring a little spark and maybe bring some people to the stadium to see the highly touted prospect play. I don't have him anymore (traded him away) but I hope he can play well because the Astros need the help and having a crappy Astros team isn't good for baseball.

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Is there actually a chance he gets the call this year?

I think like 95 percent he will see at least a Sept call up. I wouldn't be shocked if he came up in June though.

If the Astros continue to think in terms of the bottom line (i.e. $) over all else, there seems to be a chance Springer wouldn't get the call until June of 2014. September call-ups count as service time, so that would push back his eventual 2014 call-up date if they are concerned about Super 2 status (and given their money situation, it seems a good bet that they are very concerned indeed).

As for those suggesting he gets called up sooner to appease the fans, I don't think having a guy who right now would probably strike out in 35-40% of his major league at bats would be very appealing. He's not ready yet, in my opinion, and they'll keep him down till he can at least be useful to them.

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Is there actually a chance he gets the call this year?

I think like 95 percent he will see at least a Sept call up. I wouldn't be shocked if he came up in June though.

If the Astros continue to think in terms of the bottom line (i.e. $) over all else, there seems to be a chance Springer wouldn't get the call until June of 2014. September call-ups count as service time, so that would push back his eventual 2014 call-up date if they are concerned about Super 2 status (and given their money situation, it seems a good bet that they are very concerned indeed).

As for those suggesting he gets called up sooner to appease the fans, I don't think having a guy who right now would probably strike out in 35-40% of his major league at bats would be very appealing. He's not ready yet, in my opinion, and they'll keep him down till he can at least be useful to them.

Agreed. Even though the Astros have a terrible outfield I don't know how much Springer would help right now. He is great when he makes contact, but that is not something that would happen very often at this point. He needs more time in the minors to get more familiar with seeing pitches. Pitchers at the major league level would destroy him right now. That being said, if he can make adjustments this season I think we could see him next season at some point.

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2 for 2 a double bomb number 17 and 5 RBI only in the second inning of the game so far.

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2 for 2 a double bomb number 17 and 5 RBI only in the second inning of the game so far.

Second game of the double header.

First game: 1/2 with a walk and SB, plus he didn't strike out.

Now at 17HR/17SB!

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Gotta think he's gonna get the callup soon

Am I wrong in wanting to sell high on this guy for his amazing numbers right now? Saw him in spring with that all or nothing swing + his K rate throughout his milb career....don't see how this dude isn't a .230-.240 hitter

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i hear what you're saying about the .240 avg. but man this dudes CBY Heavy....we're talking 40/40 and even with the suck avg. that will play as long as you got a guy that can cover it....

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curtis granderson a pretty good comparison for this guy?

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i hear what you're saying about the .240 avg. but man this dudes CBY Heavy....we're talking 40/40 and even with the suck avg. that will play as long as you got a guy that can cover it....

True. I'll likely hold for now anyway. DOesn't hurt. It is encouraging to see him doing well in AA this year when he struggled mightily there last year in his brief stint

excellent BB% for him, so there is hope for the K rate to decline with more experience

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Granderson comp is actually a good one. Mike Cameron is another guy who comes to mind when I see Springer's game

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His K rate is obscene for AA. But, man, you have to love the monster HR/SB combo. I'm not going to lie, though, the K rate has become alarmingly high. It will be really interesting to see how this dude fares when he gets the call.

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Springer had a very Springer game yesterday 1 HR, 1 SB, 1 BB, 1 K(of course!)

Also, something of note

72Ks. 29.4% K/PA in Apr, 28.6% in May, 18.2% in June (so far). Still plenty of time left in June but it's good to see the K% going down with more AB's and experience in AA

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Springer had a very Springer game yesterday 1 HR, 1 SB, 1 BB, 1 K(of course!)

Also, something of note

72Ks. 29.4% K/PA in Apr, 28.6% in May, 18.2% in June (so far). Still plenty of time left in June but it's good to see the K% going down with more AB's and experience in AA

That's the kind of progress that's nice to see, even in a small sample. Here's hoping he keeps it up.

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As fate would have it, my minor league draft is ongoing, and it appears as if Singer is going to be one of my top options. I'm very suspicious of his abilities to handle the majors once he gets here considering his abysmal strikeout rates, but a part of me is still very curious about all that athletic ability and power/speed.

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be curious to see if they move springer up to triple a when they move singleton....and get them on the same timeline if they both continue to mash....be awesome if you were a stros fan for them to get the call on the same day....

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