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Andrew Luck 2012 Season Outlook

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I know what you're thinking. Why start this thread before he's on a roster?

Because I haven't heard this kind of hype since Ryan Leaf.

My question: In what round, say in a 12 teamer, would you realistically consider grabbing him?

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idk what round, but i actually like him a lot for fantasy purposes. He can run, he's still got wayne + whoever they draft... and the colts will be terrible = garbage time stats . you'll def be able to get him as a "QB2"

his athleticism is very underrated

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idk what round, but i actually like him a lot for fantasy purposes. He can run, he's still got wayne + whoever they draft... and the colts will be terrible = garbage time stats . you'll def be able to get him as a "QB2"

his athleticism is very underrated

This is all useful, but what round, man?

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I know what you're thinking. Why start this thread before he's on a roster?

Because I haven't heard this kind of hype since Ryan Leaf.

My question: In what round, say in a 12 teamer, would you realistically consider grabbing him?

Ryan Leaf? Huh? A little too early to be thinking what round in a redraft. You don't know what the Colts will do in the draft besides Luck. That said, non-running QBs rarely ascend to top 12 QBs in their rookie years. I agree that he is mobile and underrated as an athlete but he's not a runner. Cam was a runner and that's what accounted for his fantasy value. I don't see Luck running around like that and he won't have many weapons around him. I could see him having 12-15 QB type value. Even Peyton threw 28 picks his rookie year....

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12 teamer? 8th round maybe ... really tough to say depends on how many other QBs go/how early

i dont consider him a must start obviously, but i generally wait as long as possible on QB and wouldnt mind him as my starter (in deep leagues)

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In a redraft he's basically undraftable to me until very late, if at all.

I'm not knocking Luck as a player, but someone else can gamble on a rookie QB.

I wouldn't want to depend on him as my back-up QB and I generally do not draft three.

Luck may or may not work out his rookie season, but the back-up QB is a fairly important roster spot and, to me, that makes him not worth the risk. The downside outweighs the upside and is also more likely to be realized.

Rookie QBs not named Cam have growing pains

I'd only take a flyer on him very late and only if there was nothing else out there.

Certainly not a guy I would be specifically targeting with any expectation of value...

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for what its worth, i once made the finals with tyler thigpen at QB

also shuffled jason campbell/vince young one year and took out brees/peyton/brady along the way to win another ... just to give you a perspective on how i usually draft/value QBs - this year i won with cam/tebow

i like luck a lot as a player, he could post some decent rushing totals, and the garbage time stats will be plentiful. the league im referring to only penalizes -1 for INTs.. so i like luck in my format (14 teams)

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I am anticipating some insane draft strategies here.

We'll call it "Extreme Wait for QB" strategy.

This will make the Stafford/Freeman/Bradford crew from last year look positively conservative.

To wit:

Take Luck, RGIII, and a Matt Flynn or Jake Locker in the final 3 rounds and see what sticks.

With the success of Cam and Dalton last year, why not?

At least that's the logic of the strategy. I'm not saying I'll actually use it.

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i waited on cam newton. i got made fun of.

then they all wrote checks out to me at the end of the year. i never go in with a set strategy tho ... the best team i ever had on paper - i actually took rodgers in the first round [first time i've taken a QB before the 6th round).

my scoring is very QB friendly, and it's a very deep league (2rb, 3wr, 14 teams ... yes 42 starting WRs league-wide) ... so i just try and wait as long as possible because even scrub QBs can get you 15-20 points if you play the matchups right

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In a redraft he's basically undraftable to me until very late, if at all.

I'd only take a flyer on him very late and only if there was nothing else out there.

Certainly not a guy I would be specifically targeting with any expectation of value...

Which is exactly what everyone said when I started the Cam Newton thread last year.

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if i told you my starting lineup in week 1 last year was cam newton, ryan mathews, marshawn lynch, brandon marshall, victor cruz, aaron hernandez [it wasn't, i 'm just saying]

you would've told me my team sucks and has no chance of competing in any "real" league. my point is draft whoever you want, nobody knows anything for sure

there are things in place for luck to be a solid fantasy qb this year and you can get him for cheap ... garbage time stats count too

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Ryan Leaf? Huh? A little too early to be thinking what round in a redraft. You don't know what the Colts will do in the draft besides Luck. That said, non-running QBs rarely ascend to top 12 QBs in their rookie years. I agree that he is mobile and underrated as an athlete but he's not a runner. Cam was a runner and that's what accounted for his fantasy value. I don't see Luck running around like that and he won't have many weapons around him. I could see him having 12-15 QB type value. Even Peyton threw 28 picks his rookie year....

The 4,000 passing yards helps too, but you are correct....take away Cam's rushing TDs and yards and his numbers are about like Ben Roth. Not a bad fantasy option, but not a Brees/Brady/A-rod type. I see Luck next year as the 15-20th QB off the board, which puts him in the late rounds.

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if i told you my starting lineup in week 1 last year was cam newton, ryan mathews, marshawn lynch, brandon marshall, victor cruz, aaron hernandez [it wasn't, i 'm just saying]

you would've told me my team sucks and has no chance of competing in any "real" league. my point is draft whoever you want, nobody knows anything for sure

there are things in place for luck to be a solid fantasy qb this year and you can get him for cheap ... garbage time stats count too

Cam Newton had a record breaking rookie season... if you think Luck is going to duplicate that then go for it but this team lacks talent and coaching at all positions.

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i don't expect him to be anywhere near cam newton this year , he's not the runner cam is [altho he does run a very impressive 40]

i just like waiting on QB as late as possible ... his team can suck just as bad as last year and that's fine. if they get blown out, pile up the garbage time stats. the league i'm talking about is 14 teams/3WR/2RB so i generally wait as long as possible to fill the QB spot ... and we only penalize turnovers -1 (pass TDs are 5)

he's still got wayne and whoever they add in the draft (reunite with fleener? theres a ton of good WRs this year too..] , plus 4th quarter garbage time TDs count too

i don't plan on him being my QB1, but if the draft shakes out the way it did for me last year ... he just might be. i expect QBs to fly off the board in all my leagues this year, so it really depends on when i'm drafting in the first. after the top backs/megatron, i might break my own rule and get a rodgers/brady "stud" QB and go from there

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I don't know about you, but Andrew Luck seems like a major sleeper hit to me. His skill set reminds me a lot of Aaron Rodgers. No one is talking about him, the way no one talked about Cam Newton last year at this time. RG3 is getting more attention. Rightfully so, but I say Luck's got enough upside to be a top ten fantasy QB. Luck's got decent weapons and should be in a lot of shootouts. In Yahoo leagues he's going in the 12-14 rounds. What's not to like?!

He rushed for almost 1000 yards in three years at Stanford. You'll never see Peyton Manning pull off this move!

If you draft a top five QB and don't feel like drafting another one for a long time, you can do a lot worse than Andrew Luck.

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Naw. He's no sleeper because there isn't much too like in the short term (this season). He could have a decent season, but there isn't any precedent that would lead people to expect a pocket passer with limited weapons to be a top 10 QB. He has the tools, but that isn't enough. You mentioned Aaron Rodgers, but he sat behind the most productive QB of all time and stepped into a Dynasty-level offense both in terms of available weapons and coaching. People were sleeping on Cam last year because there was no way to predict Steve Smith having a renaissance season and Cam's level of production was unthinkable coming into the year (14 rushing TDs as a QB and he threw for 400+ yards in his first 2 starts both NFL records). Cam also had a lockout shortened off-season so expectations were lowered for a rookie QB on a bad team. RG3 is unfairly be held to the standard Cam set, but he will more than likely upset people because Cam had the best rookie season of all time. That being said, there are things to like with RG3 though. He has established weapons around him (Fred Davis, Garcon, Moss), and people see him as a more accurate/consistent young Michael Vick. He be a factor in the running game and QBs with rushing TDs hold immense fantasy value. Now look at Luck. Even though his physical measurables are comparable to Newton's, his tendency is primarily to run only when forced to so he holds considerably less value in the running game than both Cam or RG3 and would be more comparable in play style to an Aaron Rodgers in that sense. His weapons are likely inferior to RG3's. Reggie Wayne is more than likely on the decline and the other 2 starting receivers Collie and Avery are major injury questions. The rest of the corps is a bunch of inexperienced guys and questions. The top 2 tight ends are rookies. He missed some of the offseason with classes and is learning a new offense. Cam Newton and RG3 both have superior arm talent. He reminds me of Tom Brady somewhat because he has elite short/intermediate accuracy but he struggles to accurately drive the ball down the field. Cam and RG3 came into the league with elite velocity and accuracy on their deep balls. Also, he controlled a large number of the play calls in college and like his predecessor (Manning) showed a propensity to be fooled by defenses that use lots of pre-snap movement and zone blitzes. Watch Luck against Oregon in both of his last two years and watch him kind of struggle against that roving, chaotic d. How will he fare against the vastly superior Texans twice this year? All this is saying is he has significant roadblocks to even be a successful QB this year, let alone a top 10 fantasy QB. I'm drafting him as my QB 2 in my 10 team dynasty though :)

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Luck is also a guy whose ADP stands to see major fluctuation based on his preseason games. You know Sportscenter will heavily analyze every throw, so if I am wrong about all the stuff I said and he is elite off right off the bat then everyone and their mother will know lol.....

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I guess I didn't specify, but what separates Luck from Cam and RG3 isn't running ability because like you said Luck has quite a bit and he is a comparable athlete to Cam. On designed pass plays Luck, RG3 and Cam all run as a last resort (Like Rodgers) so they are all similar in that sense. What differentiates them in the running game is the number of designed QB runs. The panthers treated Cam like a goal-line/wildcat back and people feel like RG3 may get used in a similar way at least to keep defenses honest. The Colts are unlikely to use QB runs and the zone read as a staple of their offense so that's why Luck's value as a runner is capped imo. The Rodgers comparison is on the money because he can run but chooses not to most of the time (But I'm just gonna point out like RG3 and Cam, Rodgers has elite arm talent while Luck appears to struggle driving the ball deep to outside receivers) . Also, I was wrong saying he is easily confused because Luck is pretty masterful in his understanding of hot reads against pressure and his protection so he is well ahead of the game. Also the Colts staff is now headed by a 3-4 expert so he will be seeing complex defenses from a top defensive mind from Day 1 which is also a major advantage...

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Rodgers arm strength has improved in the pros

He was nowhere near a finished product coming out ... which is why he went after (it sounds insane to even think about now) Alex Smith

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Luck is in a similar situation to Ponder last season. Ponder played in lot of games where his team was down and he had to throw a lot and actually put up some decent stats in some games even though his inexperience cost his team in real life. Luck is way better than Ponder so I wouldn't at all be surprised to see him do the same. Rookies are producing more than ever before. I can see Luck having a season like Dalton had last year but if he had an AJ Green type WR, he'd put up 20 TDs easy IMO. Probably close to 20 INTS too but that's besides the point. My projection is 3412 yds 18 TDS 19INTS 130 yds rushing 1 TD.

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I'm strongly considering on waiting for Luck as my QB in my 14 teamer

He's gonna put up some rush yards

He's gonna be throwing all game

We only lose -1 for turnovers

Garbage time stats count too

Wayne/Fleener/Collie is not a bad trio to work with

this all goes out the window if I have no shot at Foster/Rice/Mccoy/Mathews/Megatron, cus I'm just gonna take 1 of the "stud" QBs in the first instead --- but I think Luck is gonna be a legit fantasy starter

definitely "risky", but garbage time stats count too

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Agree with you Zorak, 100%.

I've been preaching the Luck gospel to no avail (check the sleepers thread). So far this fantasy season, 7 leagues and 7 times I have grabbed this bad boy, late of course :) .

Andrew Luck is the best QB prospect since John freaking Elway... JOHN ELWAY! Difference is, Luck comes into a much pass friendly league than the Browns killer, he should post some pretty gaudy stats. I think 4000+ yards is not too far fetched. He should also provide healthy rushing stats.

Of course is a huge gamble as a QB1 (which I think he'll become), but as a stash away QB2 (his current ADP) you just cant go wrong.

Andrew Luck = :ph34r:

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