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Donald Brown 2012 Season Outlook

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I just wish we could get some more concrete information out of Indianapolis as to how strong a hold he has on the starting job for the long term.

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I just wish we could get some more concrete information out of Indianapolis as to how strong a hold he has on the starting job for the long term.

He's a 3 down back, he was in the entire 1st half yesterday...This guy is a steal this year. I think he goes for 1000 yards, and 40 catches...Tremendous value in PPR leagues. He won't score that many touchdowns, I'll guess maybe 4 or 5. But his receiving totals will make him a solid RB2 in my opinion.

The colts in general are getting over looked by everyone including Rotoworld. Reggie Wayne, Luck, and Brown will have a lot of value this year, believe it.

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I agree he should be going much higher. Probably in that same range as Doug Martin to Stevan Ridley. Maybe late 4th to early 7th at latest.

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I took Donald Brown in the 5th round (16-team league) yesterday and made sure to get Ballard late just in case. If Brown gets 15+ touches per game, that's really all owners can ask for. I just want solid numbers from the guy...and an occassional big game wouldn't hurt. The guy has steadily improved his yards and YPC each season (last year with the worst QB situation in the league). And now he's a young "veteran" on a team with a new identity and new coach. As a former first round draft pick, he knows this is his make or break season. Hopefully he takes advantage of the situation.

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I'm loving Brown and he looks even stronger and faster this year than he did at the end of last year. Probably one of the most underrated backs in the NFL. More to come: 65-yard screen passes from Luck.

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This year's Tim Hightower, as far as ADP.

Cept he probably wont fizzle out as quickly as Tim did last year

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Tim got injured, twice. First shoulder (I think he sprained it, makes it harder to do his full-force running style), then ACL.

Part of his value was goal-line work, as he was a fairly reliable TD producer in that role in previous years. A goal-line back with a hurt shoulder becomes much less effective since those are the toughest yards to pick up.

By your definition of "fizzle out", Jamaal Charles fizzled out last year too, even earlier than Tim Hightower.

I think the term "fizzled out" is better used in cases where a guy plays mostly the whole season, but just never performs to expectations and simply never becomes a useful fantasy starter.

For example, Shonn Greene fizzled out, 2 years in a row.

Jamaal Charles and Tim Hightower got injured.

Donald Brown may have a little more potential (speed?) to break big plays, but I'm not sure that he'll be consistent this season. He almost surely won't be getting the goal-line work if the guys behind him are healthy, so his TD upside is limited.

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To add to what Robrain states above, Brown also has been able to stay healthy. He seems to get a lot of nagging injuries. I think that has somewhat delayed his development to this point.

As a Colts fan, I would love nothing more than to see him have a great season.

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Yeah, I think he's got potential to have a bit of a breakout / career season, especially compared to his ADP. However, I don't think he's got any real chance of breaking into the top 5, or even necessarily the top 8. He could very easily land outside the top 10, so his upside is capped. If he does have a bit of a breakout season, I think it's much more likely to come in boom or bust form as far as the weekly games go. He's more likely to be the RB form of Vincent Jackson than to have consistent value every week.

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Yeah, I think he's got potential to have a bit of a breakout / career season, especially compared to his ADP. However, I don't think he's got any real chance of breaking into the top 5, or even necessarily the top 8. He could very easily land outside the top 10, so his upside is capped. If he does have a bit of a breakout season, I think it's much more likely to come in boom or bust form as far as the weekly games go. He's more likely to be the RB form of Vincent Jackson than to have consistent value every week.

This made me shudder.

I think he is this years Beanie Wells. I drafted Beanie a lot last year and was not disappointed. I feel the same way about Donald Brown this year.

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Yeah, I think he's got potential to have a bit of a breakout / career season, especially compared to his ADP. However, I don't think he's got any real chance of breaking into the top 5, or even necessarily the top 8. He could very easily land outside the top 10, so his upside is capped. If he does have a bit of a breakout season, I think it's much more likely to come in boom or bust form as far as the weekly games go. He's more likely to be the RB form of Vincent Jackson than to have consistent value every week.

In standard scoring leagues yes, but in PPR, I feel like he is going to be very solid...The Hightower analogy is a pretty good one...Maybe even like Addai as well.

Which is fine by me...He's the perfect RB3 in my opinion.

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A faster Addai, perhaps.

A great pick to me at Round 8 or so in PPR.

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Round 8 in PPR? Thought he was going between 5th-early 7th.

Was that an ESPN league?

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Does he know the difference between a block and a draw fake yet?

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He has done well in the playing time he has been given, and he certainly beats Delone Carter (who i had the misfortune of owning throughout last year) in terms of play-making ability. He has that starting job locked down and should be an every-down running back.

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Am I the only who thinks Donald Brown could be a 1st or 2nd round fantasy pick next year? You can get this guy as a rb3 or 4 this year and he could be a really nice value pick. I'm getting the impression people are sleeping on the Colts. Wayne and Brown to me are undervalued.

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Even though Pagano named him the starter, I'm still skeptical about whether or not Brown is going to dominate carries or even be effective with them.

Also if i'm not mistaken, the Colt's offensive line is pretty offensive.

Anyone have realistic projections for this guy?

I do however like the fact that he is a good receiver which will help in my .5 ppr league.

I'm not convinced he's worthy of a starting spot in my weekly lineup.

Hopefully they run him a little more in the next preseason game to help us evaluate how he's going to do.

On a side note, Vick Ballard looked pretty good with the touches he had in the preseason.

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Before the preseason I thought this guy had Shonn Greene upside, something like 240 carries for 1000 yards and 30 catches and 5-6 touchdowns. He's been really good in preseason, he might have a chance to do even better than that.

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Before the preseason I thought this guy had Shonn Greene upside, something like 240 carries for 1000 yards and 30 catches and 5-6 touchdowns. He's been really good in preseason, he might have a chance to do even better than that.

Please don't compare Donald Brown to Shonn Greene.

I had Shonn Greene for the past 2 seasons and he has been the bane of my fantasy football existance.

Brown actually has speed and some shiftiness to his game.

Greene a fat slow plodder who can't hit a hole.

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Before the preseason I thought this guy had Shonn Greene upside, something like 240 carries for 1000 yards and 30 catches and 5-6 touchdowns. He's been really good in preseason, he might have a chance to do even better than that.

Please don't compare Donald Brown to Shonn Greene.

I had Shonn Greene for the past 2 seasons and he has been the bane of my fantasy football existance.

Brown actually has speed and some shiftiness to his game.

Greene a fat slow plodder who can't hit a hole.

Well "upside" is probably a bad word to use when talking about Shonn Greene lol, but those were the kind of numbers I had him pegged for, a guy who would get what's blocked but be inconsistant because of their horrible D and Ballard/Carter sharing snaps.

Then I saw the long TD on the screen, watched him look very good against the Steelers, and Andrew Luck has been sensational...I think unless something happens he'll be a 3rd round pick in fantasy next year.

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last 8 games of 2011 for Brown: 102/492/3, 13/69/0

I think a 230/1000/6 line is realistic with an increased role in the passing game. I like him this year.

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Am I the only who thinks Donald Brown could be a 1st or 2nd round fantasy pick next year? You can get this guy as a rb3 or 4 this year and he could be a really nice value pick. I'm getting the impression people are sleeping on the Colts. Wayne and Brown to me are undervalued.

Yes. :mellow:

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Am I the only who thinks Donald Brown could be a 1st or 2nd round fantasy pick next year? You can get this guy as a rb3 or 4 this year and he could be a really nice value pick. I'm getting the impression people are sleeping on the Colts. Wayne and Brown to me are undervalued.

WHOA! That is overly optimistic, but not out of the realm of possibility. He was a 1st round pick of the Colts, so the pedigree is there. I think if he gets the workload, he'll have RB2 with low-end RB1 upside production. And by "workload," I'm talking 260 carries and 40 catches (which is asking a lot). And we just won't know until the games are played. People are definitely sleeping on him because the Colts were atrocious last year. But they had no QB and a defense built to play from ahead. They have changed from a Tampa 2 defense to a 3-4, added several free agents to make the new defense work (Redding, Zbikowski, McKinney) and re-built their offense via the draft (Luck, Fleener, Wright, Vick Ballard). So now maybe they can actually run the ball and keep the score low, and rely on defense more. Totally different team with new coach. I think Donald Brown has a real opportunity if he wants it.

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