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Robrain

Ryan Broyles 2012 Season Outlook

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The real reason I'm interested in Ryan Broyles future potential as a Lion?

Jahvid Best insurance.

My theory is pretty simple.

The emergence of Darren Sproles has hurt Lance Moore's fantasy value/production, in the sense that more targets go to the RB (Sproles) since he's a very reliable target/playmaker.

If Sproles were to get injured, isn't it quite reasonable to assume that Lance Moore's production would likely increase as a result?

Similarly, with everyone predicting doomsday for Best, if he were to suffer an injury (concussion) that ended his career, I think it's quite reasonable that a recovered Broyles (in 2013 probably) would see a significant uptick in targets/receptions. With Megatron on the field, Broyles will be able to find soft spots all over the place. Wes Welker sees significant targets, and it's important to point out that NE has not utilized a RB in the same way that NO/DET has utilized Sproles/Best.

Here are some stats:

Darren Sproles 2011 Receptions (1st Year as a Saint): 86

Jahvid Best's 2011 receptions extrapolated to 16 games (averaged 4.5 receptions per game through first 6 games): 72

Jahvid Best's 2010 receptions while playing the entire season through turf toe injury: 58

I think Best likely would have reached 80 receptions in 2011 had he not gotten injured.

Wes Welker's 2007 Receptions (1st Year as a Patriot): 112

Wes Welker's 2008 Receptions (w/Matt Cassel @ QB): 111

Wes Welker's 2009 Receptions: 123

Wes Welker's 2010 Receptions: 86

Wes Welker's 2011 Receptions: 122

Kevin Faulk's 2007 Receptions: 47

Kevin Faulk's 2008 Receptions: 58

Kevin Faulk's 2009 Receptions: 37

Kevin Faulk's 2010 Receptions: 6 (Danny Woodhead had 34, BJGE had 12, Sammy Morris had 7, for a grand total of 59 for all the NE RBs combined)

Kevin Faulk's 2011 Receptions: 7 (Danny Woodhead had 18, BJGE had 9, Stevan Ridley had 3, for a grand total of 37 for all the NE RB's combined)

I think you can see my point. For a heavy passing team, an Elite pass-catching RB talent like Sproles or Best will put up a huge amount of receptions. Those short yardage passes would seem to be typically taken away from the amount of targets that team's slot WR will see. Conversely, on a heavy passing team that doesn't have an Elite pass-catching RB, the WR will see a much higher amount of targets/receptions (best example: Welker).

So, if Best's career is ended by another concussion, Ryan Broyles would be the primary benefactor from a fantasy standpoint - likely in a very large way.

Ryan Broyles is ultimately the best Jahvid Best insurance, if you've been using Best in your team's FLEX spot in a dynasty league.

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You should forward this to him and his agent. I bet they'd get a huge kick out of it.

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There is no way you could legitimately do this type of research on a consistent basis.

It's Ryan Broyles. It isn't that serious... he's going to start the year on PUP and end the season with < 12 receptions.

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Broyles isn't really anything to analyze this year in my opinion. I don't see any legitimate reason to draft him. Give him a year. He's a possible sleeper in next year's draft for me due to the talent I've seen from him. As for now, he's hurt trying to bounce back from an injury and he's buried in the depth chart.

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Ryan Broyles is ultimately the best Jahvid Best insurance, if you've been using Best in your team's FLEX spot in a dynasty league.

Hur-durrrr.

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I originally posted this in the Jahvid Best thread, for everyone's information. A mod must have moved it and created Broyles his own thread. I didn't create this thread.

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Denial is the first sign that you have a problem.

You're among friends, Robrain.

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Denial is the first sign that you have a problem.

You're among friends, Robrain.

If I'd have created the thread, it would have at least included one of his highlight videos :P

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Robrain, you need to get paid for what you do. You put in the effort and the research.

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You should forward this to him and his agent. I bet they'd get a huge kick out of it.

Ok Proteus, this is your first a-holeish comment that I actually laughed out loud at.

Anyways. Wouldn't Burleson/Young be the benefactor of those slot receiver passes (at least this year) and why wouldn't they be the ones to benefit in the future?

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Young and Broyles were drafted to replace Burleson.

I specifically stated in the original post that this analysis was geared towards the future (likely 2013). Obviously Broyles is coming off an ACL tear, I don't expect him to be a huge factor this season. Possibly in the 2nd half of the season, but not early on.

Titus Young is a better deep threat, so he'll likely be lined up opposite Megatron with Broyles in the slot. Because of that, Broyles will get moved around and be able to run all over the field while Megatron is pulling the defense's attention.

Imagine this guy when nobody is focusing on him:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nvUVI6nZvak

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Still too early tell what impact he'll have. But

http://www.nfl.com/n...y-detroit-lions

DetroitLions.com reports that Broyles has been removed from the non-football injury list and is

cleared to practice

.

There is obviously some things working against him. Rookie wideout, coming off injury, deep depth at Wr in Detroit.

But make no mistake about it, Broyles could actually be the 2nd best player of Detroit's group of wide outs by the end of this season. I wouldn't write him so easily like some in this thread have, especially as a deep sleeper pick, auction filler, or in a dynasty/keeper league. Broyles was a legit 1st Rd talent that fell to Rd 2 because of his injury. He's now getting close to 100%, was able to pass the Lions team conditioning test with flying colors, and has been removed from PUP plus cleared to practice almost a month and half from opening day. Good signs. For all the Titus talk, Broyles could end up being a legitimate nightmare in the slot and with Calvin and Young on the outside requiring attention, there should be a lot of room for him to work inside. If you've watched Stafford a lot, you know he loves hitting those guys on the quick slant or quick out coming out of the slot.

Snap counts, Burlelson's performance, how the Lions monitor his knee with off days, how he's picking up the playbook. All things that need to be monitored concerning Broyles heading into preseason and the early part of the regular season.

Either way I agree with Robtrain, definitely a guy you want to keep your eye on.

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I made room on my roster for this guy in my redraft league, as soon as I heard that he was taken off the PUP.

I don't see any reason why Detroit would have risked taking him off the PUP (since now they can't put him on the PUP to start the regular season), unless they intended to use him.

There's now an increasingly high chance that Broyles could be quite valuable by midseason.

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I don't see him putting up numbers worthy of a roster spot this season, they should still have Burleson on the roster but the year after he should be a pretty good slot WR if he is ready. Their offense is going to be so dangerous for a while. Stafford and Megatron with an assortment of young WR's ready to break out. It can look similar to Green Bay with all their skill position guys in time.

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I don't see him putting up numbers worthy of a roster spot this season, they should still have Burleson on the roster but the year after he should be a pretty good slot WR if he is ready. Their offense is going to be so dangerous for a while. Stafford and Megatron with an assortment of young WR's ready to break out. It can look similar to Green Bay with all their skill position guys in time.

Agreed.. Its gonna be the Megatron and Young show in detroit. I wouldnt be surprised to see young put up 1200 yards as long as stafford throws for 5k yards again. I think Broyles is gonna be great next year tho when burleson should be completely out of the picture.

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If Stafford throws for 5k yards again, Broyles will likely be a nice chunk of that too.

5,000 - 1,681 = 3,319

Even if we pencil in Titus Young for 1,200 yards, that still leaves:

3,319 - 1,200 = 2,119

I actually don't think that Titus Young will hit 1,200 receiving yards. I think 1,000, with a little upside he could definitely hit 1,100. He'd have to have a total, complete breakout to reach 1,200 though.

So by my 1,100 estimate for Titus Young, that leaves 2,219 yards leftover for the TE's/RB's/Broyles.

Most people assume Best won't last the entire season. While Kevin Smith is a good pass-catcher out of the backfield, the difference between Best and Kevin Smith for big play potential is likely quite different.

Besides, it's not necessarily about what Broyles total stats will be at the end of the season.

Fantasy is played on a weekly basis.

If Best goes down during the first half of the season, and Broyles comes on strong starting right around the mid-point, he could easily be a WR3 with upside every week during the second half of the season. Again, there's a reason they didn't leave him on the PUP, they obviously want to start getting him worked into the offense sooner rather than later.

That means even if Broyles only amasses 800 yards for the entire season, if he does that mostly during the final 8 games of the regular season, that's a potential average of close to 100 yards per game. That's outstanding.

Basically, as my initial post in this thread described, if Best isn't on the field, and Broyles is (100% healthy), Broyles will easily have the opportunity to not only be valuable in PPR for his receptions, but also post solid yardage totals. Think Austin Collie, Wes Welker. The Lions will need a good option for their short game if Best isn't on the field.

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I think you're delusional.

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I think the Lions will look to get him on the field whenever they can, he reminds me of a Tim Brown/Marvin Harrison level talent. They realize that while he is still productive, Burleson isn't getting any younger and I believe we will see Broyles is more of a threat to make a play with the ball in his hands and more of a threat down the seams.

Burleson said and I quote, ""I was trying to tell him not to come out here, that he has time, and we need him during the season versus training camp." http://www.mlive.com...royles_was.html

This sounds like Burleson realizes the handwriting is on the wall so the longer Broyles is not gaining experience the longer he stays relevant. I am tempering expectations early, but I am expecting Scott Linehan to work Broyles in gameplans more as the season progresses...

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It should be noted that AP tore his acl close to two months after Broyles did. Broyles also ran a 4.5 forty at OU's pro day back in April, about 3 1/2 months ago. And we're about a month and a half from opening day and he's going live full contact. Maybe he's not 100% and might not be this season but he's close. So the injury isn't what will prevent him from making an impact, imo. Broyles is also a year and 4 months older than Titus, btw. And by all accounts, one of the most professional guys to come out of this years draft. Broyles was a 4-year guy, that was the Sooners WR1 for 2-3 seasons, playing in a big time college conference. He's also more of possession guy and not a deep threat burner like Titus, which projects for him a much shorter learning curve at the NFL level.

Again, not projecting DeSean or Eddie Royal rookie years but given this guys talent and the situation he's in (Detroit's pass offense), he's certainly not someone you can overlook right now or complete sleep on.

edit: TY did play 4 seasons at Boise, Soph year was just cut short. Still had adjustment period coming out though last season.

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Just got married this past month as well, for anyone else that cares about that kind of thing.

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Rookie Ryan Broyles is expected to be the No. 4 receiver "at best" this season.

According to ESPN.com's Kevin Seifert, the second-rounder has been limited by "residual soreness" in his surgically repaired knee during training camp. Behind Nate Burleson and Titus Young on the depth chart, Broyles is unlikely to make an impact before Halloween.

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