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2ndCitySox

Projecting Pitchers' Stats and Value

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If you're a dork like me, you may use a spreadsheet with basic and advanced stats to help project next year.

What advanced stats do you like?

I like: siera, ip/start (strong correlation with goodness), k/9, bb/9, gb/fb, hr/fb, lob%, and ld %...seems like a lot though.

Seeing what you wise people like to use...

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I primarily use K%, BB% and HR% to judge how good a pitcher is. Also, FIP, and LOB% can help tell you how lucky or unlucky that pitcher has been.

I also like to look at pitch velocity and pitch movement data to see if something has changed for a pitcher from previous starts or previous years.

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I primarily use K%, BB% and HR% to judge how good a pitcher is. Also, FIP, and LOB% can help tell you how lucky or unlucky that pitcher has been.

I also like to look at pitch velocity and pitch movement data to see if something has changed for a pitcher from previous starts or previous years.

Just curious, is there really a difference between k/9 and k%? Seems like they would have perfect correlation. HR%...I might like that better than per FB

High K pitchers can get away with a lot of bad outlying stats (strand rate, WHIP), so yeah, looking at velocity trends could really tell if those other stats will come back to haunt a guy or not.

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I do this to calculate ERA/WHIP. I make my own LOB% to unearned LOB% because it takes a lot of work and isn't very accurate to convert runs to earned runs after converting baserunners to runs using LOB%.

beyond just projecting players, it has given me a better understanding of the driving forces behind good ERA and WHIPs and how pitchers do have control over the so-called "luck metrics".

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I primarily use K%, BB% and HR% to judge how good a pitcher is. Also, FIP, and LOB% can help tell you how lucky or unlucky that pitcher has been.

I also like to look at pitch velocity and pitch movement data to see if something has changed for a pitcher from previous starts or previous years.

Just curious, is there really a difference between k/9 and k%? Seems like they would have perfect correlation. HR%...I might like that better than per FB

High K pitchers can get away with a lot of bad outlying stats (strand rate, WHIP), so yeah, looking at velocity trends could really tell if those other stats will come back to haunt a guy or not.

yes, if a pitcher throws a lot of walks or is just generally a poor pitcher, he will have a high WHIP. a high WHIP means more baserunners per inning. more baserunners per inning means K/9 will be inflated relative to K%.

velocity is useful but I think it is at the point of being overrated.

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I primarily use K%, BB% and HR% to judge how good a pitcher is. Also, FIP, and LOB% can help tell you how lucky or unlucky that pitcher has been.

I also like to look at pitch velocity and pitch movement data to see if something has changed for a pitcher from previous starts or previous years.

Just curious, is there really a difference between k/9 and k%? Seems like they would have perfect correlation. HR%...I might like that better than per FB

High K pitchers can get away with a lot of bad outlying stats (strand rate, WHIP), so yeah, looking at velocity trends could really tell if those other stats will come back to haunt a guy or not.

K/9 based on outs. K% based on batters faced. Felix Dubront is 17th in K% and 5th in K/9.

I also use IFFB & SwStr%. To a lesser degree I do examine things like HBP, WP, SB (see Tommy Hanson for part of the reason he's so terrible but the straight stats don't show it).

As far as using predictive ERA's like xFIP, FIP or SIERA, I find they are often hit and miss. SIERA is my preferred measurement but at some level those underlying ERA stats are flawed for certain pitchers. After Weaver continues to outperform his peripherals year after year, it's no longer luck -- it's skill.

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I use a spreadsheet with the following:

GS - IP - ERA - WHIP - FIP - xFIP - K% - BB% - K:BB - HR/9 - .BAA - BABIP

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I primarily use K%, BB% and HR% to judge how good a pitcher is. Also, FIP, and LOB% can help tell you how lucky or unlucky that pitcher has been.

I also like to look at pitch velocity and pitch movement data to see if something has changed for a pitcher from previous starts or previous years.

Just curious, is there really a difference between k/9 and k%? Seems like they would have perfect correlation. HR%...I might like that better than per FB

High K pitchers can get away with a lot of bad outlying stats (strand rate, WHIP), so yeah, looking at velocity trends could really tell if those other stats will come back to haunt a guy or not.

Say you have these two lines:

A: 6 IP, 6 K, 0 BB, 6 H, 24 BF

B: 6 IP, 7 K, 4 BB, 8 H, 30 BF

K/9: A = 9.0; B = 10.5

K%: A = 25% B = 23.3%

With K/9, B wins but with K% A wins. For the purposes of determining who is the better pitcher, K% is superior. However, if you're in an innings cap league, K/9 is fine to use because you actually care about Ks per IP.

Also, regarding pitch velocity and movement; What I meant to say is this: If a pitcher is suddenly doing much worse or much better than he has in the past then it is useful to look at velocity and movement compared to his previous velocity and movement to see if he is doing something different than before. You could say something like "Oh, he is throwing his fastball 2 MPH faster than last year so maybe that's why this guy is breaking out -- maybe he is for real".

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I primarily use K%, BB% and HR% to judge how good a pitcher is. Also, FIP, and LOB% can help tell you how lucky or unlucky that pitcher has been.

I also like to look at pitch velocity and pitch movement data to see if something has changed for a pitcher from previous starts or previous years.

Just curious, is there really a difference between k/9 and k%? Seems like they would have perfect correlation. HR%...I might like that better than per FB

High K pitchers can get away with a lot of bad outlying stats (strand rate, WHIP), so yeah, looking at velocity trends could really tell if those other stats will come back to haunt a guy or not.

Say you have these two lines:

A: 6 IP, 6 K, 0 BB, 6 H, 24 BF

B: 6 IP, 7 K, 4 BB, 8 H, 30 BF

K/9: A = 9.0; B = 10.5

K%: A = 25% B = 23.3%

With K/9, B wins but with K% A wins. For the purposes of determining who is the better pitcher, K% is superior. However, if you're in an innings cap league, K/9 is fine to use because you actually care about Ks per IP.

Also, regarding pitch velocity and movement; What I meant to say is this: If a pitcher is suddenly doing much worse or much better than he has in the past then it is useful to look at velocity and movement compared to his previous velocity and movement to see if he is doing something different than before. You could say something like "Oh, he is throwing his fastball 2 MPH faster than last year so maybe that's why this guy is breaking out -- maybe he is for real".

Ok I get it now, I'm an idiot. Thanks for learning me up

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