Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

larsthorwald

Hughes vs Bailey

Recommended Posts

Both are comparable by age, make-up and arsenal.

Major difference being, Phil Hughes will perpetually play on a contender (which does add a variety of pros and cons for a young pitcher).

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

hughes is gonna be better right away...he attacks batters like a veteran and is much smarter about how he uses his pitches...he could step in right now and be more successful with an immediate impact...

bailey is said to have the better "stuff"...but i dont believe his secondary pitch is big league ready...nor does he have good control yet...he still has ace potential...but i think he would go thru ups and downs before he is successful...much like cain...

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Good points.

I would take Hughes, also becuase he has that yankee offense behind him B).

But both are solid.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Does it bear mention that this topic would be better suited for the Minor Leagues forum? No matter. I'm glad to see it. It's a worthwhile debate and one that many dedicated fantasy players are ill-equipped to tackle. If I may ...

To know where they're going, let's take an encapsulated look at where they've been. Their ages (call it 21 years) are effectively equal, let's call it a non-factor. Hughes has a slight edge on the tale-of-the-tape, measuring an inch taller and about fifteen pounds heavier at the last weigh-in. Both were picked, out of high school, in the first-round of the 2004 amateur draft and have been, generally speaking, dominating the minor leagues ever since. In 2006, each spent time in High-A before graduating to and menacing Double A. Both are expected to start 2007 as the presumptive aces for their teams' AAA affiliates. Anyone can find their minor-league numbers, though, let's move on.

Projection arrives in two terms, short and long. It's a safe bet that both players will make their big-league debuts in 2007 and safer yet that they'll not be up for a cup of coffee. In fact, the Doktor will go on record and state that he expects both of these excellent prospect to pitch 130 major-league innings (give or take a few). Accordingly, my projections are based on that presumption. Still convinced that he has the stuff to blow away every batter that steps into the box, Bailey will post a marginally higher strikeout total than Hughes (120 to 110). That will be offset, though, by an appreciably higher number of bases-on-balls (65 to 45). Bailey's flamethrower mentality (and, to a lesser extent, the Great American Ballpark) will also lead to a greater number of balls leaving the yard (18 to 15). Expect the two to share a similar GB:FB ratio (somewhere around 45 percent) and for opposing batters to hit for similar batting averages on balls-in-play (.285-.295). Of greater importance to rotisserie players, I project substantial advantages in ERA (3.95 to 4.55) and WHIP (1.30 to 1.45) in Hughes' favor. Despite the Bombers' advantageous lineup, I'd expect both to finish within a decision of a .500 record (call it 8-8, for posterity;s sake).

Now that's a whole lot of prognostication and not much in the way of explanation. The 4-1-1, as my underage slamps like to call it, is as follows: Homer Bailey is your classic Texas power pitcher. Beyond his high-90s heat, he completes his package with a 12-to-6 sledgehammer and rarely-seen aggressiveness. To emerge as a true ace, he'll have to improve his consistency and, moreover, have a more open relationship with his fastball. If he can blend his strong secondary offerings more effectively, he'll mature into an excellent power pitcher. Philip Hughes, meanwhile, trades a bit of Bailey's velocity for outstanding command. Thrown between 92 and96, his fastball has movement and can be located extremely well. His hard curve represents a second good out-pitch and his changeup is deceptive and a serviceable third option. Along with his aforementioned ideal size, his mechanics are nearly flawless. Even so, the Yankees have handled him with kid-gloves and it remains to be seen if his dominance can be prolonged through a full-season workload.

Verdict: Now and forever, Philip Hughes.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Bailey in the short term because he's more likely to see significant time on the big league level this season than Hughes but in the long term say 3 or 4 years down the road as long as the Yankees continue to put together the best teams through FA then Hughes will have the advantage. Also remember there is no gurantee Bailey will play his entire career in Cincy while Hughe's future in NY looks a bit more certain.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

What about factoring AL vs. NL. Homer Bailery has the advantage of pitching in a much weaker division, not to mention the benefit of not having to face an AL DH like David Ortiz, Travis Hafner or Jim Thome every other night? Hughes was solid in his last outing but could be injury prone, and has to face the pressur of playing in NY. I think the verdict is still out with a lsight edge today to Hughes, but only becuase Homer Bailey hasn;t gotten his big league shot yet.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.