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Todd Frazier 2013 Outlook

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Here's hoping!

RW Blurb:

Reds general manager Walt Jocketty said Todd Frazier is "penciled in as our third baseman next year."

It's hardly a surprising declaration, as Scott Rolen is a free agent and reportedly leaning towards retirement, clearing the way for Frazier to take over at the hot corner. Jocketty did use the caveat "right now" when discussing Frazier and third base, perhaps leaving the door open for him to be moved to left field should they find another third baseman. That seems unlikely, though. Source: Reds.mlb.com Nov. 19 - 12:36 pm et

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Frazier is an interesting option at 3rd. 19 homeruns in 400 ABs is nothing to scoff at, however he did struggle to end the year. Granted Dusty was jerking him around and fatigue may have been a factor. Still I'm not 100% sold on him for a full season. With that said, he should come on the cheap and definately has some potential to do some damage in the small parks of the NL central. He's also going to be 27 at the start of the season, I believe, so he is just entering his prime.

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ah, im totally sold on him. in that ballpark, gotta love it. you can probly get him late too, im thinking after freese

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Think fatigue was definitely a factor in his poor finish, between injuries and the Reds hunt for top seed he didn't get many days off at all. It was also inevitable that pitchers would start paying more attention to him, though don't think they got a definite book on his weaknesses though Reds fans might be better informed on that. But I like him next year, any starter at GABP is worth a gander and he might have 1B/3B/OF elig which would make for some nice roster flexibility

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Love this kid heading into next year, really performed well as a rookie and hes hitting in a great park and great lineup. Should be had after the big names are gone and if you can score him a little late (not sure how late) he should end up a great pick for the 2013 season. Good power, solid average and should have the counting stats as well.

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I dealt him in a package recently, I have just been burned too much over the last several years by the "this guy hit 17 HR in sub 400 at bats" imagine what he will do with 550 at bats now that he has a full time job approach. Its good, it just hasnt been good to me lately, of course he will be the guy who breaks out and hits 30HR.

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I dealt him in a package recently, I have just been burned too much over the last several years by the "this guy hit 17 HR in sub 400 at bats" imagine what he will do with 550 at bats now that he has a full time job approach. Its good, it just hasnt been good to me lately, of course he will be the guy who breaks out and hits 30HR.

I can understand that hesitancy about a young unproven, that burn has happened to all of us and it always hurts, but like dzemens said if can get him a bit later in the draft (and really have a hard time projecting where he'll go, ideas anyone?) love his prospects. Might look for some kind of 3b insurance late in the draft if anyone remotely decent is available or look to swing a deal early in the year to solidify the position just in case but really like this kid too. Could see him getting off to a slow start so patience might be required, or if don't already own might be able to buy him cheap right before the summer humidity rolls into GABP.

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I agree, if he were still around late in a draft or late in the auction and I could get him at a cheap price, sure absolutely I would take him. But for me, I had him for $4, the other owner asked for him in a deal and I didnt hesitate, he was borderline as one of my keepers, kind of leaning towards not keeping him at $4 and thinking getting him back at around that price ($130 cap 13 mixed roto).

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I just think he gets over valued because many people thought he SHOULD have won ROTY. Not saying he will be a bust, but I think the upside isn't as high as some people think. Last year could have been closer to his ceiling than his floor. He was barely a top 20 3b last year. Sure he's going to get more at bats.... but I dont think I could comfortably put him in the top 12 going into the season. How many people really cary backup 3b on their team or play an OK 3b as your CI. Only deeper leagues really. If you wait on 3b and you need to take two, maybe then I'd consider him.

Chances are you will be able to find someone on waivers next year who will put up similar production.... just like you picked up Todd Frazier from waivers. Guys who hit 15-22 with a 270 average DO grow on trees in 12 team or less mixed.

Nice player. Just not excited about him.

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I agree, if he were still around late in a draft or late in the auction and I could get him at a cheap price, sure absolutely I would take him. But for me, I had him for $4, the other owner asked for him in a deal and I didnt hesitate, he was borderline as one of my keepers, kind of leaning towards not keeping him at $4 and thinking getting him back at around that price ($130 cap 13 mixed roto).

I'm in the same boat as you. Trying to work out a trade now that will let me throw Frazier back as I think he is overvalued at 8 bucks in my league. If the trade falls through I really have no idea what I'm going to do. Ah, the things that keep us up at night! :P

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Come draft day next year, I will be looking to click the draft button on Todd Frazier in 2013.

If one area that might see improvement could be his HR/FB%. He was down over 8% from 2011. Which in turn could lead to him being able to keep a similar SLG from last year.

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Do you guys think he's capable of .275 avg with 25-30 HR and 80-90 RBI with fulltime ABs?

I think he will get at least 22 to 25 homers and I'm not sure about the rbis it depends on where he is in that lineup. Last year I think he hit mostly sixth and seventh.

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Projecting the lineup...

1. Choo

2. Phillips

3. Votto

4. Ludwick

5. Bruce

6. Frazier?

I would assume so, but you never know with dusty maybe he puts cozart in the top of the lineup too.

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wondering if this is another guy like mentioned before who can get 20 HRs but they are costly 20 HRs if you know what I mean. a player who doesnt project out half season numbers into the same for full season at bats.

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I like the park and lineup and would assume that his counting numbers would be solid even if his BA regresses somewhat.

But he's a 2nd year player coming off a .265 season and a poor September....if he suffers a slow start, will Dusty sit him? Reminds me of Lucas Duda at this time last year....without Duda's solid BB rate. With that said, he might carry a bit more risk than we'd like. (But I'm generally a pessimist, so take it for what it is.)

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I love the Reds lineup this year. Perfect lineup that mixes OBP, Power, Youth, Experience all into one.

1. Choo

2. Phillips

3. Votto

4. Bruce/Ludwick

5. Ludwick/Bruce (switch vs. LHP/RHP)

6. Frazier

7. Mesoraco/Hanigan

8. Cozart

9. Pitcher

Each hitter in that lineup has some sort of skill set. There are no throw away outs in that lineup at all. I really like Frazier this year he is in a very good spot to succeed and have a good amount of RBI/Run scoring opportunities with the talent surrounding him.

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with todd frazier some sites are saying he is a player to avoid but provides good value. my thing with him is that how many guys look good and everyone thinks.....man with a full season at bats what he can do. he did have well over 400 at bats and has been a better option at 3rd compared to guys like him before who could do something with a full season at bats.

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Ugly swings but a good athlete who finds a way to get it done. I think he tops 20 home runs and gets close to 500 AB's with some nagging injuries causing him to fall short and when he falters Dusty goes with a known hand veteran who offers less upside.

Still think he is .265/21/70/7 ish

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Ugly swings but a good athlete who finds a way to get it done. I think he tops 20 home runs and gets close to 500 AB's with some nagging injuries causing him to fall short and when he falters Dusty goes with a known hand veteran who offers less upside.

Still think he is .265/21/70/7 ish

I like this projection. I think this its very realistic, but he has the upside of something like .275/27/85. If I can't get a good 3B and he falls a little past his ADP I will take him, but I dont see myself reaching for him or anything.

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Got some eyebrows raised at me when I traded Hultzen for him straight-up in a deep keeper league 2 weeks ago (I just inherited the team and G.Cole/D.Bundy were enough prospect SPs for my team, Hultzen was overkill).

I look at that lineup and see success for Frazier this year, especially after how good he was up until the end in 2012. 3B-eligibility and a high probability of 20+HR and 80+RBIs is enough to keep my on board. I just wish some more of the experts agreed with me, Bill James has him at only 15HR and 70+RBIs.

If he fails I also have Seager, so I'm really trying to go cost efficient at 3B this year since I won't have anything close to an elite option.

Frazier seems like a solid bet, good to know others are also on board with him.

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