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LyondellBasell

Carlos Santana 2013 Outlook

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No one has been pleased with what we've gotten from him his first two full years in the majors. Is he still going to be the consensus #1 catcher in pre-season ranks?

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are you joking He would not even be in my top 6 or 7 he is a streaky player who padded his stats last year in September my projection would be 18 HR 68 RBI and a .245 Avg

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not joking. well, posey slipped my mind for some reason, so yea, obviously posey will be #1 ranked. i haven't seen any of the pre-ranks out yet.

fake teams has carlos 4th after posey, yadier and mauer. i'd def take him over mauer and yadier. i'm still bullish. these catchers take a few years to get going offensively.

rosario is gonna get a ton of preseason buzz.

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I think some may sleep on him and he could deliver solid value next year. He was terrific after the ASB last year, not just in September. After the ASB, he hit .281/.389/.498, with 13 homers and an .887 OPS. That's 74 games, not like it's 20 random games. Also, most tellingly, he had a 41/45 K/BB ratio. There are not many hitters who can sustain a better than 1/1 K/BB ration for nearly half the season, and it's almost impossible to not improve with those peripherals.

Also, his terrible month last season, June, came after he came off the seven day concussion DL. Maybe a coincidence, maybe not.

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His k-rate drop by four percent and his line drive went up almost four percent in 2012 from 2011.

Looking at his HR/FB over the last three years.

2010: 11.1%

2011: 16.6%

2012: 11.5%

Maybe he is going to be a player that has a trend of giving you 25+ HR's ever other year. Or maybe he is just going to hover around 20 HR's for 2013. That is the question you will have to ask yourself come draft day.

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I would Take Posey Mauer Napoli Salvadoor Perez for sure before him and possibly Avilla if he bounces back. thats just off the top of my head If you look at Saltamachias stats last year they are very close to Santanas and he will go mutch later. I just think he will be overvalued again this year

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I would Take Posey Mauer Napoli Salvadoor Perez for sure before him and possibly Avilla if he bounces back. thats just off the top of my head If you look at Saltamachias stats last year they are very close to Santanas and he will go mutch later. I just think he will be overvalued again this year

You have to look at indicators to figure out if a guy could be on the verge of breaking out, or making improvements. Santana's second half last year indicated that he figured something out at the plate. A better than 1/1 K/BB ratio for nearly half the season says that a hitter has a very good idea of what he's doing at the plate. Santana had one godawful, atrocious month coming off a concussion that essentially torpedoed his season numbers. But there are very few other catchers capable of what he did in the second half, posting a .900 OPS with significant counting stats, and 41/45 K/BB ratio.

I'm a believer that talent will eventually win out, and Santana has a lot of ability. Every peripheral stat (K/BB ratio, LD%, O-Swing%) indicate that he could improve quite a bit from his first two seasons. If you put a guy like Saltalamacchia, who is an unmitigated hacker with little chance of improvement, in the same category as Santana, then you're not looking into the numbers deeply enough.

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I think some may sleep on him and he could deliver solid value next year. He was terrific after the ASB last year, not just in September. After the ASB, he hit .281/.389/.498, with 13 homers and an .887 OPS. That's 74 games, not like it's 20 random games. Also, most tellingly, he had a 41/45 K/BB ratio. There are not many hitters who can sustain a better than 1/1 K/BB ration for nearly half the season, and it's almost impossible to not improve with those peripherals.

Also, his terrible month last season, June, came after he came off the seven day concussion DL. Maybe a coincidence, maybe not.

I think his concussion WAS the cause of his slide in June. I'd bank on 25-85-85 from him in 2013.

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I've owned Santana in multiple leagues each of the past two seasons. i completely agree with MJK in that Carlos has an abundance of talent and was a remarkably better hitter in the 2nd half.

With that said, the catchers position is far deeper than I recall it ever being.....so I wont draft him in most leagues unless I can grab him at a great value.

(Of course, in leagues that count BB and/or OBP, his value increases exponentially.)

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Like I stated in the Catchers thread, he's probably the biggest high risk high reward guy at catcher. Could easily be the #1 guy and nobody would be surprised. Has 30 HR potential which is nuts for a catcher. However unless he's discounted heavily, like round 5 or later (considering he looks great in Spring training, I'm probably passing

Too much good value later. Catcher is REALLY deep. In a 10 team league I would bother to reach on C.

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I really like Santana this year and I've been seeing a lot of doubters of him, some people even calling him a 'bust' already. The numbers may not reflect it but I think he started to mature as a hitter last year and was actually glad with some of the improvements he made.

Now I will preface this by saying that I'm an Indians fan so I have reason to be optimistic, but the reasoning has basis.

When he first came up he was praised for his plate discipline, but as you watched him over time (And I watch almost every Indians game) you realize that he was actually patient to a fault. He would take the first pitch WAY too often trying to get ahead in counts, and pitchers figured this out and started throwing him consistent strikes first pitch and he would just take it and get down 0-1.

He also routinely took absolute meatballs right down the plate which would make you want to pull your hair out because he's got so much power.

So given these things, here are a few numbers that really impressed me and have me optimistic for Santana's future:

2011: Z-Swing 58.3%, O-Swing 21.4%, Z-Contact 84.2%, O-Contact 62.8%, F-Strike 54.4%

2012: Z-Swing 61.2%, O-Swing 21.4%, Z-Contact 84.8%, O-Contact 66.2%, F-Strike 50.7%

So he became more aggressive at the pitches thrown right down the heart of the plate, but didn't press and start swinging at bad pitches. He also improved his contract rates across the board. More aggressive + more contact = good, especially for a player as young as he is. In addition, his increased aggresiveness helped his problems of getting behind in the count with first pitch strikes as that dropped significantly.

And the best part about all this?

2011- 14.7 BB%, 20.2 K%

2012- 14.9 BB%, 16.6 K%

He still was able to draw walks at an elite level, actually drawing a few more, and reduced his strikeouts significantly.

This improvement in his approach is very promising to me, and I think with it the power will come back. His HR/FB% of 11.5 was a little lower than his (albeit short) career average of 13.5. If he regresses toward that, which you have all reason to believe he should as he gets older and becomes a more mature hitter, as you can see above, there is reason to expect more power.

Having Michael Bourn and Nick Swisher hitting in front of him now can't hurt either.

My projection for him is in the .265/.370/.450 range with 24 HR, 80 RBI, 75 R, but I think is ceiling could be .280 and 30 HR as early as this year, though obviously wouldn't go into draft day expecting that. I have him as my second ranked catcher behind Posey and would draft him with confidence and without hesitation over any other catcher except for maybe Mauer. The poster above that said he is high risk, high reward, I disagree with completely. He is one of the lowest risk catchers to draft IMO, as even if the HR's dont return he will still walk at an elite level and get more PA's than almost any other catchers because of his role as backup 1B in Cleveland. The PA's alone make him one of the most consistent fantasy catchers

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I'm a big Santana fan. That's a really well-done post iAugust. I feel like a big year is in store, just so much talent as a hitter. The ball just explodes off his bat. Especially if you own him in an OBP or BB league, the guy is money. Just such a great batting eye, and it's encouraging he was able to cut his Ks down. That nearly 1:1 K/BB ratio from last season has me very encouraged. The fact that I own him in a couple keepers that count BBs and OBP makes me biased, but I'm bullish on Santana this season.

You also noted something important in that post. In the second half last season, he became more aggressive, which was the key to him putting it together. His eye is so elite that he will always draw a lot of BBs. But if he saw a first pitch fastball, he would just let it rip. That, to me, was a big part of his increased success. At times, when he has struggled, it almost seems like he goes up to the plate trying to draw BBs, which is the opposite of most hitters.

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Don't forget those of you that play in daily leagues he's also 1B eligible. Positional flexibility is always a plus. This guy has shown the underlying skills to really bust out. Check his minor league numbers he always hit for average. Don't forget he's asked to focus on defense 1st at his position, his bat is finally catching up. Big breakout potential, and now has Michael Bourn leading off.

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Great posts iAugust and mjk. Posts like those make the fantasy baseball forum so great. As for Santana, in OBP leagues this dude can easily finish as the number one catcher this year in that new lineup.

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I see enough catchers drafted much later on that there is no shot I draft him (however I will bid for him in my auction league and see where he settles in), but I can obviously see the intrigue with him. He's had a cruddy babip every season of his career so far, so at this point hoping for better than a .265 average may be wishful thinking. He hit a solid amount of line drives last year and batting average can have some luck involved, but it's more likely he's a negative in that category. Runs are tough for catchers as well, but Santana isn't a terrible base runner and he seems to be one of the better run scoring catchers. As mentioned, the Bourn and Swisher addition should only help his rbi's. He has 30 home run power but he would basically need a perfect season with a hint of luck to achieve that. Last year he traded some fly balls for line drives (when compared to 2011), and if he continues that path it is likely 25 is the max he hits. I'd probably put him in the 22-23 range. I think his final numbers settle somewhere in the .260ave, 22 homer, 78 rbi, 80 run, 3 steal area. Obviously that is very good for a catcher, but when I see guys like Rosario Montero VMart Perez etc all going 40+ picks later, there is no way that in a snake draft I would end up with Santana on my team. Should be solid though, I'm just not a guy that drafts catchers that early.

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2ND Half stats 2012: BA and xBA both .278 1.14 walks-to-strikeouts. 15% walk rate 13% hr/fb rate. .870 OPS 11% jump in contact rate.

All this with still only 29% hit rate. With 540 AB's at the same hr/fb rate and same fb% he hits 28-30 homers and if BABIP finally just makes it to league avg. at .300 this guy goes .280-30-100.

Only Rosario holds that kind of power promise, and he had a 25% hr/fb rate which is almost sure to regress.

VMart and SPerez project for better avg but nowhere near the power potential.

Santana has the most breakout potential and possesses the skills to make it happen.

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Miguel Montero wished Santana good luck in trying to put up with Bauer this year lol

From cleveland.com:

When asked about Montero's comments, Bauer said, "I'm glad to live in a country like the United States where we can all say what we want and have freedom of speech. I appreciate all the guys who go overseas and fight for that freedom."

:huh:

Masterful deflecting or Greinke-esque? You decide.

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Jeez, Bauer must be a real nightmare if Montero is publicly flaming him like that. I feel like Cleveland should maybe make Marson his personal catcher. Let Santana focus on his offense and handling the rest of the pitchers. Let Marson be the personal therapist to Bauer.

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where should he be going? 3rd or 4th round...comparable players who will be left around this time would be...Ian Kennedy, Desmond Jennings, Elvis Andrus, Asdruble Cabrera, Sin So Choo....

Im thinking 20-25 homers and 80-90 rbis...our league includes OBP and not AVG, so Santana will be key here.

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I really like this guy and am currently trying to nab him in a trade. I think last year showed he was maturing as a hitter, and the power as well as RBI's will come this year. hopefully .275 26HR 95RBI 90R, which I will be ecstatic to get from the catcher position.

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I was in the Santana slaughterhouse of a year last year when I drafted him in the 3rd round. I am again a masochist and scooped him up in the 7th round of a 12 team league, I have a reserved yet optomistic view on his ROI. I wanted to grab Salvador Perez as an insurance policy, but was unable to do so, meaning I am relying on him to hit .270, 20 HRs, 85 RBis which I feel is a very realistic and conservative line for him with a greater ceiling to outperform.

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