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ChrisFarley

Starling Marte 2013 Outlook

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Does anyone have Starling Marte on their sleeper lists?

I'm not sure if he has a starting job headed into next year, but if given everyday ABs, I can definitely see him putting up 15+ HR and 30+ SB season. The one glaring negative is that he doesn't walk at all. However, his minor league performance indicates strong contact %, therefore, he will not be a total average killer like a Drew Stubbs.

What are your thoughts on Starling Marte for 2013?

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Going off of previous years, I would expect to see a lower k-rate from his 27.5% with the big club last year. One thing that was concerning headin into his call up of last year was the amount of caught stealings.

2011: 24/12

2012(minors): 21/12

2012(majors): 12/5; hopefully this is something that he can carry over to next year.

Starling Marte for at least me is a player that is hard not to get excited for in 2013(fantasy).

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GM said that he will be starting in LF. Good news.

He is one of my breakout candidates as well, along with Snider. He can be what we thought Tabata would be with more power. I think his upside is a season like Austin jackson has last year with more steals but less runs.

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GM said that he will be starting in LF. Good news.

He is one of my breakout candidates as well, along with Snider. He can be what we thought Tabata would be with more power. I think his upside is a season like Austin jackson has last year with more steals but less runs.

I think Austin Jackson is a pretty interesting comp, but that would also suggest that Marte is 3-4 years away from getting his plate discipline to a point where he can be productive. Jackson's defense kept him in the lineup everyday, and Leyland's stubbornness kept him leading off. that's where his value was derived prior to last year. Jackson was also very young when he came up.

Marte needs to make huge strides in his plate discipline or he's going to find himself hitting 7th for the Pirates, which is a fantasy wasteland. it took a .333 BABIP just to get his OBP to .300. his BABIPs were always high in the minors so maybe he can sustain that.

as for the power, 57% groundball rate suggests single-digit power. he hit 5 in 1/3 of a season last year because of an inflated HR/FB (18% which is borderline elite).

for the SB, he was routinely in the low 20s each year, with a poor success rate. he also epitomizes "you can't steal first base". he can potentially improve, but if the success rate is low the opportunities will drop.

he's also not particularly young (he is 24 already) so he was actually old for his leagues in the minors.

I'm just not seeing it for 2012. I just think he's too far away and the amount of improvement he needs is tremendous. even if he completely goes off beyond any level he was able to put up in the minors, he's probably just an OF4 or so, like a poor man's Jackson or Angel Pagan. I'm passing as of now but it's early obviously.

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However, his minor league performance indicates strong contact %, therefore, he will not be a total average killer like a Drew Stubbs.

his minor league K% are actually really terrible for a guy with gap power. they're only slightly better than Stubbs' in the minors. guys like that who K a lot in the minors tend to get fooled even worse by MLB pitchers.

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GM said that he will be starting in LF. Good news.

He is one of my breakout candidates as well, along with Snider. He can be what we thought Tabata would be with more power. I think his upside is a season like Austin jackson has last year with more steals but less runs.

I think Austin Jackson is a pretty interesting comp, but that would also suggest that Marte is 3-4 years away from getting his plate discipline to a point where he can be productive. Jackson's defense kept him in the lineup everyday, and Leyland's stubbornness kept him leading off. that's where his value was derived prior to last year. Jackson was also very young when he came up.

Marte needs to make huge strides in his plate discipline or he's going to find himself hitting 7th for the Pirates, which is a fantasy wasteland. it took a .333 BABIP just to get his OBP to .300. his BABIPs were always high in the minors so maybe he can sustain that.

as for the power, 57% groundball rate suggests single-digit power. he hit 5 in 1/3 of a season last year because of an inflated HR/FB (18% which is borderline elite).

for the SB, he was routinely in the low 20s each year, with a poor success rate. he also epitomizes "you can't steal first base". he can potentially improve, but if the success rate is low the opportunities will drop.

he's also not particularly young (he is 24 already) so he was actually old for his leagues in the minors.

I'm just not seeing it for 2012. I just think he's too far away and the amount of improvement he needs is tremendous. even if he completely goes off beyond any level he was able to put up in the minors, he's probably just an OF4 or so, like a poor man's Jackson or Angel Pagan. I'm passing as of now but it's early obviously.

Good post, I assumed he was younger then that actually. I do think he will sustain a BABIP over .300 just because of his speed, but that K% is concerning. His ISO in AA and AAA was in line with what it was last year in the MLB so maybe he can sustain some of the power and possibly get to double digit homers, but the biggest thing for him will be where he is hitting in that lineup. If he remains at the leadoff spot then I think he can still have some fantasy value, but I agree he will most likely be a poor mans Pagan I dont see him hitting over .260 this year.

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I'm guessing Cameron Maybin Mk II, with a slight power bump for the home park, but also a slight SB challenge due to a pretty bad SB/CS rate. Similar challenges with BA as other posters note. I said that in his 2012 thread and don't see anything that's changed that viewpoint.

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GM said that he will be starting in LF. Good news.

He is one of my breakout candidates as well, along with Snider. He can be what we thought Tabata would be with more power. I think his upside is a season like Austin jackson has last year with more steals but less runs.

I think Austin Jackson is a pretty interesting comp, but that would also suggest that Marte is 3-4 years away from getting his plate discipline to a point where he can be productive. Jackson's defense kept him in the lineup everyday, and Leyland's stubbornness kept him leading off. that's where his value was derived prior to last year. Jackson was also very young when he came up.

Marte needs to make huge strides in his plate discipline or he's going to find himself hitting 7th for the Pirates, which is a fantasy wasteland. it took a .333 BABIP just to get his OBP to .300. his BABIPs were always high in the minors so maybe he can sustain that.

as for the power, 57% groundball rate suggests single-digit power. he hit 5 in 1/3 of a season last year because of an inflated HR/FB (18% which is borderline elite).

for the SB, he was routinely in the low 20s each year, with a poor success rate. he also epitomizes "you can't steal first base". he can potentially improve, but if the success rate is low the opportunities will drop.

he's also not particularly young (he is 24 already) so he was actually old for his leagues in the minors.

I'm just not seeing it for 2012. I just think he's too far away and the amount of improvement he needs is tremendous. even if he completely goes off beyond any level he was able to put up in the minors, he's probably just an OF4 or so, like a poor man's Jackson or Angel Pagan. I'm passing as of now but it's early obviously.

This is a really good post, thanks for diving into the numbers. It seems to me it's all about contact rate for Marte, and he displayed better in the minors. Maybe I just want this guy to succeed because he's got a very cool name, I don't know. Adam Jones has done well for himself despite also having a walk allergy, so I'm hopeful Marte can get on a similar trajectory.

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I like Marte especially given his ADP. I got him in round 18 of a 25 round draft in a 12 team league. I think his upside is comparable to Adam Jones, BJ/Justin Upton, Dexter Fowler etc. Downside if he struggles to get on base I guess you are looking at an Austin Jackson type player.

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I like Marte especially given his ADP. I got him in round 18 of a 25 round draft in a 12 team league. I think he ends up somewhat like Adam Jones, BJ/Justin Upton, Dexter Fowler, Alfonso Soriano about 10 years ago etc.

lol what? You think Starling Marte is going to hit .300 and go 40/40? What an absurd grouping of players too, all with incredibly different skillsets

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I like Marte especially given his ADP. I got him in round 18 of a 25 round draft in a 12 team league. I think he ends up somewhat like Adam Jones, BJ/Justin Upton, Dexter Fowler, Alfonso Soriano about 10 years ago etc.

lol what? You think Starling Marte is going to hit .300 and go 40/40? What an absurd grouping of players too, all with incredibly different skillsets

you guys really think marte will be a 40/40 guy? maybe down the line but this year??

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I don't at all.

dorsett compared him to a strange, varying pool of players including "Alfonso Soriano 10 years ago" when he was putting up .300 40/40 seasons.

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Will this become the new Lorenzo Cain thread? Is Marte's floor 20/20 this year?

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I don't at all.

dorsett compared him to a strange, varying pool of players including "Alfonso Soriano 10 years ago" when he was putting up .300 40/40 seasons.

I realized that was a far off comparision and deleted it about 15 seconds after initially posting it. See the edited version a few posts above.

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I think he has the ability this year to put up a very similar line to Peter Bourjos. 12-15 HR with 20 steals seems fair for both, with the possibility for average above .250 but don't bank on it. As a pick in the 200's, I'll take either of them on a flyer.

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I think thats about right Dodger Blue. Id say .265 avg. 80 runs .340 OBP 15 HR 65 RBI 20 SB. The average and OBP scare me a bit but overall not a bad line at all, especially considering his ADP.

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.340 OBP is very generous. He only had a 4.4% BB rate last year and a 27.5 K%.

EDIT- Hell, he only had a .347 in AAA last year before being called up. I think the OBP is much closer to .315

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15 HR and 20 SB

Yep, and probably a fairly low BA as he isn't a great contact guy.

I really don't get the fascination people seem to have with Marte.

He's a moderate power/speed combo, who:

  • has a career single-season high in HR in the minors of 12, and SB of 26
  • gets caught stealing in about a third of his SB attempts
  • hardly draws walks at all, and strikes out a bunch
  • and on top of all that, is already 24 years old (so he's not a young prospect where you'd reasonably expect massive improvement in his skillset).

He's very likely to produce Cameron Maybin-like numbers, with a few more HR given his home ballpark vs, Maybin's, but with similar (lack of) contact-fueled BA challenges.

And for reference, by the time Maybin had turned 24, he'd already had a full season's worth of PAs (610) under his belt. And much like Marte, Maybin's minor league BA numbers were in the .300 range (.305 career minors for Maybin vs. Marte's .303), but his lack of plate discipline caught up to him in the major leagues.

Don't get me wrong, there's fine value in a .260, 15 / 30 guy. I'd be happy to get that on my team for the right price. But I don't get where these visions of a .300, 30/30 guy are coming from.

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15 HR and 20 SB

Yep, and probably a fairly low BA as he isn't a great contact guy.

I really don't get the fascination people seem to have with Marte.

He's a moderate power/speed combo, who:

  • has a career single-season high in HR in the minors of 12, and SB of 26
  • gets caught stealing in about a third of his SB attempts
  • hardly draws walks at all, and strikes out a bunch
  • and on top of all that, is already 24 years old (so he's not a young prospect where you'd reasonably expect massive improvement in his skillset).

He's very likely to produce Cameron Maybin-like numbers, with a few more HR given his home ballpark vs, Maybin's, but with similar (lack of) contact-fueled BA challenges.

And for reference, by the time Maybin had turned 24, he'd already had a full season's worth of PAs (610) under his belt. And much like Marte, Maybin's minor league BA numbers were in the .300 range (.305 career minors for Maybin vs. Marte's .303), but his lack of plate discipline caught up to him in the major leagues.

Don't get me wrong, there's fine value in a .260, 15 / 30 guy. I'd be happy to get that on my team for the right price. But I don't get where these visions of a .300, 30/30 guy are coming from.

I totally agree with you but I do see the fascination with the guy from a scouting perspective - he's got a ton of tools and athletic ability. If he ever learns the strike zone look out...but that can be said about a lot of players.

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