Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

ChrisFarley

Dayan Viciedo 2013 Outlook

90 posts in this topic

I think this kid hits 30+ bombs in 2013. He has massive raw power and hitting 25 homers last year as a 23 year old is pretty impressive. He will once again patrol LF for the south siders and be good for 500+ ABs. Assuming he hits a little higher in the lineup, 90+ rbis could be within reach to go with the 30+ homers. Batting avg? I hate to say it, but he's probably no more than a .260 hitter.

What are your thoughts?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

When you look at his k-rate(high), lack of ability to take a walk & his declining ISO. Expecting in the ballpark of 25 HR's and like you said .260 avg seems reasonable for the 2013 season.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I think this kid hits 30+ bombs in 2013. He has massive raw power and hitting 25 homers last year as a 23 year old is pretty impressive. He will once again patrol LF for the south siders and be good for 500+ ABs. Assuming he hits a little higher in the lineup, 90+ rbis could be within reach to go with the 30+ homers. Batting avg? I hate to say it, but he's probably no more than a .260 hitter.

What are your thoughts?

I own him in my $130 cap keeper league, for $3 and he is borderline right now, honestly probably on the outside looking in. I was horrific in runs this year, and guys like Dayan were part of the issue, you look at him, you see the 25 Jacks, etc and you are pumped, then you see he only scored like 69 runs for 25 Jacks and 500 at bats that is pretty pathetic, but it is because:

1. He doesnt get on base enough (only .300 OBP)

2. Not that fast so wont guarantee to score

3. White Sox bottom/top not that great to drive him in if he is on base.

Its unlikely but there was some chatter about him moving back to 3B, doesnt seem likely if you read comments but not totally out of the realm if they dont resign Youk, that might change things a bit, but for me right now, Im a little worried that the power isnt enough over the average of where you need to be HR/RBI wise to offset the fact he is a liability, and a somewhat serious one in the other 3 categories.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I think this kid hits 30+ bombs in 2013. He has massive raw power and hitting 25 homers last year as a 23 year old is pretty impressive. He will once again patrol LF for the south siders and be good for 500+ ABs. Assuming he hits a little higher in the lineup, 90+ rbis could be within reach to go with the 30+ homers. Batting avg? I hate to say it, but he's probably no more than a .260 hitter.

What are your thoughts?

Yeah he's a lock for 30 if healthy. He hit 25 bombs in only 543 PAs last year.

Viciedo had a really slow start last year. Take out his April and his numbers look something like.

.263 / .312 / .506 / .818

I'm looking forward to drastic improvement next year.

1 person likes this

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

He'll only be 24 in March. This guy is nowhere near a finished product as he still has a lot of room to grow. His BB rate was disappointing last year at 5.2% but he has shown that he is capable of better as he had an 8.9% BB rate in AAA and a 8.0% BB rate in limited duty in 2011.

I'm optimistic on him but I'd put his ceiling at somewhere around .270/.320/.460 with 25-30 bombs.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

He'll only be 24 in March. This guy is nowhere near a finished product as he still has a lot of room to grow. His BB rate was disappointing last year at 5.2% but he has shown that he is capable of better as he had an 8.9% BB rate in AAA and a 8.0% BB rate in limited duty in 2011.

I'm optimistic on him but I'd put his ceiling at somewhere around .270/.320/.460 with 25-30 bombs.

ceiling? That would barely be an improvement upon last year.

Ceiling wise I'm thinking he'd be more like .280 / .330 / .540 with 34 HRs.

I find it highly unlikely Viciedo slugs under .500 over a healthy season.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

From MLB.com...

Class will be in session for Dayan Viciedo and Tyler Flowers early next week, when White Sox hitting coach Jeff Manto makes a trip down the East Coast to Florida... implementing a slight change in Viciedo's hitting approach by adding a small leg kick...

Adding this new Viciedo leg kick came about through discussions involving Manto, assistant hitting coach Harold Baines and manager Robin Ventura. It's something Viciedo employed early on in his White Sox Minor League days, but not consistently from at-bat to at-bat.

Manto doesn't consider himself a big leg kick guy. But in Viciedo's instance, Manto felt it was clearly needed for the 23-year-old talent, who fanned 120 times last season.

"With this leg kick, the timing, his body will be behind the ball more often and give him a better chance for better contact," Manto said. "He's such a tremendous hitter, but sometimes he gets so excited getting after the ball.

"Dayan hit [25] homers and drove in 78 and we are still going to mess with him. That's how good he is, how good we think he is and can be. I'll be able to show him exactly what we think is best for him."

If the leg kick doesn't work for Viciedo once the White Sox get going during Spring Training, then Manto and company will go back to working with Viciedo on what he's been doing and where he feels comfortable. They strongly believe this change will be for the better.

My excitement for Viciedo is growing for this season. Ya ya, he will K a lot and not walk, but for counting stats, I can see 30+ bombs and 90-100 RBI if Robin Ventura puts him in an RBI spot. .255, 25 HR, and 78 RBI was pretty good for the kid as a 23 year old playing full-time in the majors in 2012. I think we will see improvement.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

18hr, 63rbi, 230 avg

Way too pessimistic.Viciedo had a .286 BABIP last year. At the major league level he has a career BABIP of. 302 and a .315 minir league career BABIP.So I fully expect a nice hike in BA.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

The leg kick is an interesting development that could work for him. His power is undeniable. Watching games last year, I do remember a few at-bats where he was fooled and off balance, swung all arms, and still hit a warning track fly ball in the launching pad of the Cell. Correct balance, and those balls are in the 15th row.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

The leg kick is an interesting development that could work for him. His power is undeniable. Watching games last year, I do remember a few at-bats where he was fooled and off balance, swung all arms, and still hit a warning track fly ball in the launching pad of the Cell. Correct balance, and those balls are in the 15th row.

...and easily a 30 HR candidate. He has a lot of upside. I'd stash him in late rounds if I had to opportunity to snag him.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

18hr, 63rbi, 230 avg

Way too pessimistic.Viciedo had a .286 BABIP last year. At the major league level he has a career BABIP of. 302 and a .315 minir league career BABIP.So I fully expect a nice hike in BA.

If I can grab him late rounds, Ill grab him for his potential. I just have a gut feeling this year.

1 person likes this

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Encanarcion altered his swing last year and look at the numbers he put up. He wasn't even drafted in my league last year and is now a top 30ish player. Cross your fingers for this guy!

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I think this kid hits 30+ bombs in 2013. He has massive raw power and hitting 25 homers last year as a 23 year old is pretty impressive. He will once again patrol LF for the south siders and be good for 500+ ABs. Assuming he hits a little higher in the lineup, 90+ rbis could be within reach to go with the 30+ homers. Batting avg? I hate to say it, but he's probably no more than a .260 hitter.

What are your thoughts?

I own him in my $130 cap keeper league, for $3 and he is borderline right now, honestly probably on the outside looking in. I was horrific in runs this year, and guys like Dayan were part of the issue, you look at him, you see the 25 Jacks, etc and you are pumped, then you see he only scored like 69 runs for 25 Jacks and 500 at bats that is pretty pathetic, but it is because:

1. He doesnt get on base enough (only .300 OBP)

2. Not that fast so wont guarantee to score

3. White Sox bottom/top not that great to drive him in if he is on base.

Its unlikely but there was some chatter about him moving back to 3B, doesnt seem likely if you read comments but not totally out of the realm if they dont resign Youk, that might change things a bit, but for me right now, Im a little worried that the power isnt enough over the average of where you need to be HR/RBI wise to offset the fact he is a liability, and a somewhat serious one in the other 3 categories.

He slotted in the bottom third of the lineup most of the year...traditionally not a spot that guys score a lot of runs

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Love Dayan this year, he's a young Vlad Guerrero -- he's gonna strike out a ton, he's never gonna walk, but he's gonna put up stats because he loves to swing at everything. He was pretty unlucky last year, BABIP of .286 by had an xBABIP of .313, I think he gets up towards .270 this year and should maintain a 20% HR/FB rate (he's got growing power, no reason for that number to drop).

I confidently project him in this range...

.270 - 72 - 27 - 87 - 0, which puts him right around 40th in my OF rankings.

Something to remember about him is that he didn't have a full time job in Spring last year, he started out the year platooning 2 out of 3 days -- this year he'll get full time AB's in Spring.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

this is someone i always pegged as a "is who he is" guy, which is an undisciplined hitter who does nothing for you if he;s not on a hot streak. surprised if you guys think there;s more to him. certainly he's worth attention in deep leagues, but he's never going to be a guy who's a lock for your lineup in 12 teamers.

1 person likes this

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

this is someone i always pegged as a "is who he is" guy, which is an undisciplined hitter who does nothing for you if he;s not on a hot streak. surprised if you guys think there;s more to him. certainly he's worth attention in deep leagues, but he's never going to be a guy who's a lock for your lineup in 12 teamers.

I think he'll be owned in 10 teamers this year. He has so much raw power and hits in a great hitters park.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

this is someone i always pegged as a "is who he is" guy, which is an undisciplined hitter who does nothing for you if he;s not on a hot streak. surprised if you guys think there;s more to him. certainly he's worth attention in deep leagues, but he's never going to be a guy who's a lock for your lineup in 12 teamers.

He was a lock in my 12-team lineup last year (and I finished 2nd in one of the hardest NFBC 12-team leagues ever)

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

this is someone i always pegged as a "is who he is" guy, which is an undisciplined hitter who does nothing for you if he;s not on a hot streak. surprised if you guys think there;s more to him. certainly he's worth attention in deep leagues, but he's never going to be a guy who's a lock for your lineup in 12 teamers.

Undisciplined? Because he doesn't draw many walks? His K% was at 22.1% last year, which is more than fine for a 23 year old power hitter.

If you break it down further and see his second half splits his K% and BB% showed drastic improvement.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Love Dayan this year, he's a young Vlad Guerrero -- he's gonna strike out a ton, he's never gonna walk, but he's gonna put up stats because he loves to swing at everything. He was pretty unlucky last year, BABIP of .286 by had an xBABIP of .313, I think he gets up towards .270 this year and should maintain a 20% HR/FB rate (he's got growing power, no reason for that number to drop).

I confidently project him in this range...

.270 - 72 - 27 - 87 - 0, which puts him right around 40th in my OF rankings.

Something to remember about him is that he didn't have a full time job in Spring last year, he started out the year platooning 2 out of 3 days -- this year he'll get full time AB's in Spring.

That BABIP isnt actually that bad, I wouldn;t say he was pretty unlucky especially considering the average BABIP for most hitters is around .300. I think his BA will improve this year though just because I think he will improve on his BB% and K% likeProSpx mentioned he did n the second half of last year

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
That BABIP isnt actually that bad, I wouldn;t say he was pretty unlucky especially considering the average BABIP for most hitters is around .300. I think his BA will improve this year though just because I think he will improve on his BB% and K% likeProSpx mentioned he did n the second half of last year

BABIP is player independent, the league average means nothing. Players range from .260 - .350, but it's the player's career baseline that you need to be worried about. Viciedo hits the ball hard, players who hit the ball hard and strike out a lot tend have higher BABIP's, or else their batting averages will be so bad they won't last long in the pros.

I understand some of these are minor league numbers, but BABIP tends to be pretty similar minors to majors for a lot of guys, but tell me which of these numbers is most out of line?

2009 AA - .315

2010 AAA - .302

2010 CWS - .365

2011 AAA - .324

2011 CWS - .321

2012 CWS - .286

Even if you knock off a little from his minor league numbers, it's pretty clear he should be significantly better than a .300 BABIP guy (.305-315 range looks likely to me). He obviously tired down the stretch (he sat out 5 games during September after not sitting out more than 3 in any other month); even though he had a nice 6 HR total, he had a .256 AVG in September, with that HR total and 52 K's in 238 AB's, he finished his first 6 month season of his career with a terrible .259 BABIP for the month. I think he'll not only see an increase due to experience, he'll have better stamina after getting his first full season under the belt.

He might suck, he might repeat, but I see a guy ready to take another step up, with potential to bust out in that ballpark.

1 person likes this

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I feel most of the time players minor leaguer BABIP is fairly higher. Which would make sense. The most elite pitchers, elite fielders, and elite scouting in terms of not just how to pitch a player but the best way to defend against players. Like Hosmer last year the shift killed him.

So to check into thia I lookes up quite a few top end hitters in the majors. I then went only for players 30 and under so that they have fairly recent data in both the minors and the majors.

Jay Bruce minor league career BABIP. 367 MLB career BABIP. 290

Posey minor .361 major .339

Goldschmidt minor .369 major .337

Longoria minor .320 major .303

Adam Jones minor .344 major .316

Starlin Castro minor .348 major .334

Billy Butler minor .365 major .327

Prince Fielder minor .319 major .303

Jason Heyward minor .345 major .309

Even Trout with his insanely high. 383 BABIP last year.

Trout minor .402 major .358

A few guys major league BABIPs were within a few points (either way) on their minor league BABIPs

Tulo

Kemp

Braun (the same)

Votto

Justin Upton (+11)

Carlos Gonzalez (+13) saw the highest raise in BABIP from the minors .334 to .347 in the majors.

1 person likes this

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Ok, so he was a .325 guy in the minors, .305-.310 in the Majors in reasonable, not .286; underachieved towards the end of the year, probably due to rookie fatigue. He's a 24 year old with huge power in a great hitters park for RH power, and huge volume potential due to low walk rate -- I see more to like than to dislike, especially since he's already got a 25-homer season under his belt.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Probably the most undisciplined hitter in the league. Very rarely do guys make huge strides when they have F- patience like he does. At the big leagues your weaknesses get exposed and teams have figured out this guy will chase junk in the dirt. Until he adjusts and proves he will lay off it I actually have a pretty pessemistic outlook on him despite his youth. Look at Alexei Ramirez, he burst onto the scene quickly and has just slowly regressed/plateaued because he could never work a count. Viciedo had a 4.2:1 K:BB ratio last year. That is just horrifying and he can't hit right handed pitching. .225 with a .650 OPS vs. RHP, .350 with a . 1.033 OPS vs. LHP. In over 500 MLB at bats vs. RHP he hits .225 vs. them with a .634 OPS. Can't draw walks, can't hit right handed pitching, can't be on my team. I will let someone else get the roller coaster ride of a guy who can't draw a walk to save his life.

2 people like this

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

If you break it down further and see his second half splits his K% and BB% showed drastic improvement.

He had a 4.9% bb rate in the first half. 5.4% bb rate second half.

He had a 23.9% k rate in the first half. 20.1% k rate second half.

Perhaps we interpret the numbers differently, but I wouldn't call that dramatic improvement. Though I agree with you and most posters who are saying the power is extremely alluring.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.