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v0dka

Mike Trout 2013 Outlook

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#1 overall pick? Can he duplicate or even improve on his 2012 rookie season?

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I'm pretty confident that if given the opportunity in 3 months or so, I'd take Braun over Trout. I think they have comparable upsides but Braun's floor is higher. I would take Miggy over Trout as well.

after Braun and Miggy, I'm on board. there are a lot of question marks with the rest of the pack. I think Kemp should be up there. never like guys with hammy injuries, but prior to that injury Kemp was looking like the best hitter in baseball and it wasn't close. now he's actually got a real lineup around him and the Dodgers will probably throw some more money at some FAs to bolster the offense around Kemp.

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I have him in a keeper, but I'd probably grab him 2nd overall in a redraft behind Ryan Braun. I agree that Braun is more of a sure bet, I want Trout to be the best in the game so bad but I just don't think he is quite yet. I hope he uses the fact that he didn't get MVP as motivation to do what he did last year but better hahaha...

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Here is most runs scored in single season:

Runs scored

Player Team Runs Season

Babe Ruth New York Yankees 177 1921

Lou Gehrig New York Yankees 167 1936

Lou Gehrig New York Yankees 163 1931

Babe Ruth New York Yankees 163 1928

Chuck Klein Philadelphia Phillies 158 1930

Who thinks Trout will be there this season with Pujols&Hamilton behind him?

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Could be a pretty special year with Pujols, Hamilton, Trumbo, and Morales all behind him in that lineup. Wow. Kudos to the Angels.

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Could be a pretty special year with Pujols, Hamilton, Trumbo, and Morales all behind him in that lineup. Wow. Kudos to the Angels.

That's a great lineup. I really love trout even more this year, and I don't think pujols will get off to that slow start like he did last year.

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trout is my first

lucky! were you his first too?

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Obviously, I love the Angels getting Hamilton and how that impacts Trout's runs potential. If everything breaks right for him, 150 is certainly doable.

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I'd go Braun first, then Trout. But Trout would be tempting. Does sophomore slump apply to baseball?

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I'd go Braun first, then Trout. But Trout would be tempting. Does sophomore slump apply to baseball?

Yes. Just look at Eric Hosmer. However it doesn't apply to superhumans. Trout is immortal to it.

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I'd go Braun first, then Trout. But Trout would be tempting. Does sophomore slump apply to baseball?

Yes. Just look at Eric Hosmer. However it doesn't apply to superhumans. Trout is immortal to it.

Hosmer, yea, wow. No need to say more. Thanks, BB.

I don't see Trout slowing down next year either. Given who he has hitting behind him.

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Braun, Miggy, Trout. Unless you play in a league that uses specific LF, RF, CF....then I'd go trout #1

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I'd go Braun first, then Trout. But Trout would be tempting. Does sophomore slump apply to baseball?

speed never slump's

Except when it tweaks a hamstring

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So would a "sophomore slump" for Trout be something along the lines of 16 HRs, 30 steals, 90 runs, .280 BA? I'll take those numbers for a "slump".

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So would a "sophomore slump" for Trout be something along the lines of 16 HRs, 30 steals, 90 runs, .280 BA? I'll take those numbers for a "slump".

That would be a sophomore disaster, but scarily enough that's still respectable if he does that. I just can't see Trout slumping to the point where he's not a top 3 player on pretty much every roster he's on.

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Now I'm going to ask the newbie question but it could be enlightening to those who may fear questioning the faith.

Now we know that Trout was amazingly spectacular last year. But can someone explain beyond gut check feelings why it seems so impossible for Trout, barring injury, is going to have a "bad" year? I mean, we've seen hot players have bad years. Wright is a perfect example. This guy has been up for one full year. What makes him such a lock pick as potentially the best pick in the year?

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Now I'm going to ask the newbie question but it could be enlightening to those who may fear questioning the faith.

Now we know that Trout was amazingly spectacular last year. But can someone explain beyond gut check feelings why it seems so impossible for Trout, barring injury, is going to have a "bad" year? I mean, we've seen hot players have bad years. Wright is a perfect example. This guy has been up for one full year. What makes him such a lock pick as potentially the best pick in the year?

Mainly because of the speed he has. Even if his bat is cold, he can still get on base and steal a base or two to be valuable. When he is hot, he gets you homers/rbi's/runs, when he is cold, he still gets you steals.

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Now I'm going to ask the newbie question but it could be enlightening to those who may fear questioning the faith.

Now we know that Trout was amazingly spectacular last year. But can someone explain beyond gut check feelings why it seems so impossible for Trout, barring injury, is going to have a "bad" year? I mean, we've seen hot players have bad years. Wright is a perfect example. This guy has been up for one full year. What makes him such a lock pick as potentially the best pick in the year?

Mainly because of the speed he has. Even if his bat is cold, he can still get on base and steal a base or two to be valuable. When he is hot, he gets you homers/rbi's/runs, when he is cold, he still gets you steals.

could have said that about Carl Crawford or Jose Reyes too. not the same power, but speed is easily derailed by seemingly minor injuries. something unrelated, like a hand injury, can mean fewer stolen bases.

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Now I'm going to ask the newbie question but it could be enlightening to those who may fear questioning the faith.

Now we know that Trout was amazingly spectacular last year. But can someone explain beyond gut check feelings why it seems so impossible for Trout, barring injury, is going to have a "bad" year? I mean, we've seen hot players have bad years. Wright is a perfect example. This guy has been up for one full year. What makes him such a lock pick as potentially the best pick in the year?

the simple answer is that almost no one is immune to a bad year. if you take injury out of the equation, that eliminates a few like Braun and Miggy who are extremely likely to be top 10 hitters if they play 150+ games. but we've seen some high picks have brutal years (Kemp in 2010) and seemingly rock solid sophomores falter (Hosmer, Jennings, Lawrie last year alone... but obviously none of them are Trout). we're working with a MLB sample of roughly 600 PAs, and there's going to be a wider margin of error in projections than for a guy with 4000 PAs.

but the good news is Trout's floor is probably still better than most player's ceilings, and his ceiling is improvement on a season in which he was the #1 player without playing in April.

with that said, I still like Braun and Miggy over Trout. I really value that low performance risk. they do what they do year in and year out. Trout is not without his warts (he strikes out a lot) and we still have a relatively small sample on him. but obv can't fault anyone for taking Trout #1.

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Now I'm going to ask the newbie question but it could be enlightening to those who may fear questioning the faith.

Now we know that Trout was amazingly spectacular last year. But can someone explain beyond gut check feelings why it seems so impossible for Trout, barring injury, is going to have a "bad" year? I mean, we've seen hot players have bad years. Wright is a perfect example. This guy has been up for one full year. What makes him such a lock pick as potentially the best pick in the year?

It's not impossible for anyone to have a "bad" year or a "down" year, and that includes Trout. But the fact that he was only 20 years old for most of last season, has such a high pedigree, has all the tools, has an advanced approach, and had one of the best seasons of all time gives me confidence that the best is yet to come.

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Now I'm going to ask the newbie question but it could be enlightening to those who may fear questioning the faith.

Now we know that Trout was amazingly spectacular last year. But can someone explain beyond gut check feelings why it seems so impossible for Trout, barring injury, is going to have a "bad" year? I mean, we've seen hot players have bad years. Wright is a perfect example. This guy has been up for one full year. What makes him such a lock pick as potentially the best pick in the year?

It's not impossible for anyone to have a "bad" year or a "down" year, and that includes Trout. But the fact that he was only 20 years old for most of last season, has such a high pedigree, has all the tools, has an advanced approach, and had one of the best seasons of all time (in only 139 games) gives me confidence that the best is yet to come. And that's not even taking into consideration that his lineup just got a helluva lot more dangerous.

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Okay. That makes a lot of sense. I know it's impossible to tell the future, but I guess as fantasy players and analysts, it sort of is our job to predict the future in order to win our leagues as best we can.

However, you say he strikes out a lot. What stops the league from finally adapting to him and giving him fits by taking advantage of his free-swinging tendencies? He's young, so he could either adapt very quickly OR he could stubbornly insist to do it his way. Look at Strasberg, who had Tommy John and refuses to change his mechanics so he could end up being the next Kyle Drabek (with two surgeries).

Of course, when I say a down year... I think in the lines of .280 AVG, 10-15 HRs, 25-30 SB, and 80 runs. Obviously not a bad year, but I feel a line like that will bring many weeks of posts of people complaining they used their number one pick on him. Though imagine if his sophomore slump turns him into a high priced Michael Bourne? Man... I would hate to be in this thread that day....

Like JSP, I think I would rather take Braun or Miggy over Trout.

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