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ChrisFarley

Will Middlebrooks 2013 Outlook

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His promising start to his MLB career was cut short abruptly due to a broken wrist. He will be good to go by spring training from what I've read. How do you guys think he'll perform this year? He doesn't walk much, and Ks a little too much. However, he's got legit pop, and if he hits in the middle of the Bosox lineup (5th or 6th), I could see him getting 20-25 homers and 90+ RBI. Batting avg might be on the low side (ie .260-.270).

What do you guys think?

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This was the only reason for joy as a Sox fan last year, to know that they may have found a superstar to anchor their squad for numerous years. He had a high line-drive rate but still a .335 babip should come down, not too much though if he can maintain a 21%+ line drive rate. His k % is a big high, so that growth or regression in that will help determine his average as well. His power is legit, this is a perennial 30 homer guy waiting to happen. He will need to walk more in order to score more, because his obp is nothing special. I liken his overall offensive game to Evan Longoria a lot, including his steals. Much like Longoria, Middlebrooks has always had a solid steal %, not getting thrown out too much because he is smart. He could surprise with 10-15 steals.

In the end, there will be two ways to view him. You either think he's a sophomore slump candidate, or you believe in his talent. I think that much like Longoria, he makes strides in his 2nd season (Longo's was better, but his k-rate and walk % where still similar to Will's 1st season). My projections are just a reiteration of Bill James' projection, because I agree with them.

153 games, .277 average, 29 homers, 99 rbi, 11 steals, 75 runs.

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Are you guys at all woried about the wrist? I had him last year and really do think he is legit. I'm just worried that the broken wrist will sap power in his first year back.

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i love this guy, looking to keep him for the next few years, 20-25 hr + 85-100 rbi + .270 - .285 BA + 70 - 85 runs is my "safe bet"

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Are you guys at all woried about the wrist? I had him last year and really do think he is legit. I'm just worried that the broken wrist will sap power in his first year back.

I think wrists are usually ~6 month deals as far as power goes, so he shouldn't suffer too much during the season.

with that said, everyone is different and it's a definite factor.

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I worry that players with horrible plate discipline get abused in their second go-around. the upside is legitimately what others mentioned, like 30/100/.280. problem is the downside is he winds up back in AAA. like a lot of players I think it depends on the ADP. I have a feeling that he will be hyped pretty heavily heading into the season.

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I think that RBI total is really out of whack. Same with the HR total. A more realistic baseline is 20/80/80.

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This was the only reason for joy as a Sox fan last year, to know that they may have found a superstar to anchor their squad for numerous years.

that's a bit of a hyperbolee ... he strikes me as just an average player ... you say it yourself, inflated babip, high k rate

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This was the only reason for joy as a Sox fan last year, to know that they may have found a superstar to anchor their squad for numerous years.

that's a bit of a hyperbolee ... he strikes me as just an average player ... you say it yourself, inflated babip, high k rate

I also said it is fairly maintainable since he had a line drive rate of 21.5%. Anything over 20% tends to lead to a pretty babip. He's only 24, he is young enough to be able to improve his batters eye. And, he's done very very well in the minors and came to the majors and continued his good hitting. Hard to call a guy who had a pedigree as a good prospect, raked in triple AAA, comes up and puts together a very good season in the majors at 23 years old an "average" player.

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I really like Middlebrooks as a long term player.

But in terms of next year I have a feeling he will be over drafted by a large margin. Depending on where is ADP is but honestly the guy K's a lot, slowed down considerably after a hot start, and is coming back off of a broke wrist. All of that entering his sophomore year.

If he's healthy he's probably a .270 - .275 20 HR guy.

Despite all the negative's I just shed on Will one big time positive for Middlebrooks is he is going to jump up that lineup so he's looking at a lot more PA's and RBI opportunities.

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This was the only reason for joy as a Sox fan last year, to know that they may have found a superstar to anchor their squad for numerous years. He had a high line-drive rate but still a .335 babip should come down, not too much though if he can maintain a 21%+ line drive rate. His k % is a big high, so that growth or regression in that will help determine his average as well. His power is legit, this is a perennial 30 homer guy waiting to happen. He will need to walk more in order to score more, because his obp is nothing special. I liken his overall offensive game to Evan Longoria a lot, including his steals. Much like Longoria, Middlebrooks has always had a solid steal %, not getting thrown out too much because he is smart. He could surprise with 10-15 steals.

In the end, there will be two ways to view him. You either think he's a sophomore slump candidate, or you believe in his talent. I think that much like Longoria, he makes strides in his 2nd season (Longo's was better, but his k-rate and walk % where still similar to Will's 1st season). My projections are just a reiteration of Bill James' projection, because I agree with them.

153 games, .277 average, 29 homers, 99 rbi, 11 steals, 75 runs.

Going to edit his numbers since I didn't realize how high his hr/fb % was. I'd probably expect closer to 25 homers and 90 rbi's. Still a great value for where he is going.

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I really like Middlebrooks as a long term player.

But in terms of next year I have a feeling he will be over drafted by a large margin. Depending on where is ADP is but honestly the guy K's a lot, slowed down considerably after a hot start, and is coming back off of a broke wrist. All of that entering his sophomore year.

If he's healthy he's probably a .270 - .275 20 HR guy.

Despite all the negative's I just shed on Will one big time positive for Middlebrooks is he is going to jump up that lineup so he's looking at a lot more PA's and RBI opportunities.

His ADP was pretty damn low on Yahoo as of this week (around 139 I think?), although I expect it to go up as we get closer to the season.

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The wrist is completely healthy, and he's adjusting his approach to lay off the low and away pitches. He said he will still maintain his aggressiveness because he believes his job is to drive in runs. Hitting in the 5/6 spot of the Bosox lineup with Ellsbury, Victorino, Pedroia, Papi ahead of him, I'm starting to increase my expectations to 25-30 homers and 100 RBI.

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The wrist is completely healthy, and he's adjusting his approach to lay off the low and away pitches. He said he will still maintain his aggressiveness because he believes his job is to drive in runs. Hitting in the 5/6 spot of the Bosox lineup with Ellsbury, Victorino, Pedroia, Papi ahead of him, I'm starting to increase my expectations to 25-30 homers and 100 RBI.

He does seem to profile as a type of player that could sustain a higher than league average BABIP. That and Fenway is hitter friendly not only for his right-handed power, but Triples/Doubles and even slightly singles... I like his chances even despite the lack of plate discipline he presents.. It might be bumpy this year, as I can see him getting into slumps, and when you get into slumps and don't draw walks. It can get really ugly...

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I drafted in a 12 team league today and got him in the 14th round (157 overall). Funny thing is that once you get past the elite/semi-elite tier, there are a lot of options that have possibilities but carry some risk. As long as he doesn't try to do too much i think he'll be fine.

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AVG might not be pretty but has 30 HR pop. 3B is light this year.

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AVG might not be pretty but has 30 HR pop. 3B is light this year.

This is the deepest 3B has been in years.

MCab

Longoria

Beltre

Wright

Hanley

Zimmerman

Lawrie

Sandoval

ARamirez

Headley

Moose

Freese

Prado

Machado

Middlebroks

I mean 10 or 11 of the top 100 players are 3B

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only 4-5 of those can be counted on for anything. I actually think 3B is the 2nd thinnest position this year.

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only 4-5 of those can be counted on for anything. I actually think 3B is the 2nd thinnest position this year.

Well you can say that about any position.

I feel like 2B, 3B, C are all worse off than 3B

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Personally I think 3B and C are the 2 deepest positions this year with 2B and SS the thinnest.

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C is a crapshoot every year ( http://razzball.com/...ntasy-baseball/ ) so I'd actually argue that it's deep in that your chances of getting value from the 12 best catcher are similar to getting value from a Mauer or Santana. I agree 2b is the thinnest position. I assume you mean 1B as the other, and I couldn't disagree more. The floor on the top 9-10 guys is high and there's a ton of reliable power there.

You basically only have Miggy, Beltre, Wright, Hanley and maybe Headley who you can really count on at that position and the rest all have a significant chance of giving you next to nothing or a terrible return. That's why this year I'm paying for Wright and waiting on my 1B/C.

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AVG might not be pretty but has 30 HR pop. 3B is light this year.

This is the deepest 3B has been in years.

MCab

Longoria

Beltre

Wright

Hanley

Zimmerman

Lawrie

Sandoval

ARamirez

Headley

Moose

Freese

Prado

Machado

Middlebroks

I mean 10 or 11 of the top 100 players are 3B

There are a lot of question marks, due to injury risk and age. The reason why they are top 100 player is due to position scarcity, not production.

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only 4-5 of those can be counted on for anything. I actually think 3B is the 2nd thinnest position this year.

Well you can say that about any position.

I feel like 2B, 3B, C are all worse off than 3B

That should say 2B, SS, C

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only 4-5 of those can be counted on for anything. I actually think 3B is the 2nd thinnest position this year.

It's not. And you can count on a minumum of 8 3B. You can count on Aramis Ramirez every year. Sandoval and Zimmerman produce consistently when they're healthy, the only thing you can't count on with them is their health. And Sandoval's injuries have pretty much been limited to one specific broken bone on each hand, so it's not like he's really injury prone.

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only 4-5 of those can be counted on for anything. I actually think 3B is the 2nd thinnest position this year.

It's not. And you can count on a minumum of 8 3B. You can count on Aramis Ramirez every year. Sandoval and Zimmerman produce consistently when they're healthy, the only thing you can't count on with them is their health. And Sandoval's injuries have pretty much been limited to one specific broken bone on each hand, so it's not like he's really injury prone.

2nd thinnest position? Next to catcher?

2B and SS combined may be deeper than 3B. But by themselves 3B blows both 2B and SS away in depth.

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