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Adam Jones 2013 Outlook

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Jones finally put all of his promise together last year with a career year. Can he follow it up this year and show last year wasn't a fluke?

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23/75/275 14sb

I don't know..I just find him grossly over-rated despite him improving over the last 3 years...I'm not buying in. Falls, sure, but no otherwise.

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He's getting drafted after Heyward, Harper.

Is he legit enough to be considered a "safer" pick than those two? He's had sustained improvement overall in reaching what was thought to be high potential when he was a prospect.

Can he repeat his numbers from last year - and maybe even improve the RBIs. I'd think 16 SBs is probably a ceiling, but if he can hit 30+ HRs again and possibly reach 90 RBIs that's pretty good.

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No way I'm drafting him or bidding on him in an auction with his elevated draft position. His plate discipline scares me. The guy is the definition of a free swinger. I don't mind taking chances on guys with horrid plate discipline in later rounds, but try to take hitters with better strike zone recognition early. Players with horrible plate discipline tend to randomly have awful seasons, and Jones is in that category. He might repeat or exceed last season, but I'm letting someone else take a chance on that.

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He's getting drafted after Heyward, Harper.

Is he legit enough to be considered a "safer" pick than those two? He's had sustained improvement overall in reaching what was thought to be high potential when he was a prospect.

Can he repeat his numbers from last year - and maybe even improve the RBIs. I'd think 16 SBs is probably a ceiling, but if he can hit 30+ HRs again and possibly reach 90 RBIs that's pretty good.

If you can get him after Heyward / Harper, you drafted really well value wise. Adam is legit. I think 25-30 homers with 15-20 SB is a fair projection. Orioles line up should continue to score runs so his RBI's and R's should be fine too. I imagine you would have to be pleased with yourself if you landed him. Although the warning I should give you is this is coming from a guy who has an autographed baseball from him from his time with the Mariners, and I did trade him last year admist his hot streak.

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Started off fast and still wound up with good numbers but his value is very inflated. I'd take a pass on him this year.

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I think the steals will be closer to 10 than 20....maybe even single digits

This is my thinking too. Buck doesn't like to be too active on the basepaths.

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I'm projecting .295 35 HRs, 15 SBs, 95 RBI, 95 Runs...Career year.

I really hope he grows more patient this year and starts walking a bit more. He only had 34 BBs last year. With more patience, I could easily see the 35 HRs with 110 Runs. Normally, if he had a different manager, I could see 20+ steals with the uptick in BBs. But I don't think it will be the case.

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I'm projecting .295 35 HRs, 15 SBs, 95 RBI, 95 Runs...Career year.

I really hope he grows more patient this year and starts walking a bit more. He only had 34 BBs last year. With more patience, I could easily see the 35 HRs with 110 Runs. Normally, if he had a different manager, I could see 20+ steals with the uptick in BBs. But I don't think it will be the case.

Off the the top of my head.....I think he was way better when Markakis was in the lineup last season

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He's getting drafted after Heyward, Harper.

Is he legit enough to be considered a "safer" pick than those two? He's had sustained improvement overall in reaching what was thought to be high potential when he was a prospect.

Can he repeat his numbers from last year - and maybe even improve the RBIs. I'd think 16 SBs is probably a ceiling, but if he can hit 30+ HRs again and possibly reach 90 RBIs that's pretty good.

If you can get him after Heyward / Harper, you drafted really well value wise. Adam is legit. I think 25-30 homers with 15-20 SB is a fair projection. Orioles line up should continue to score runs so his RBI's and R's should be fine too. I imagine you would have to be pleased with yourself if you landed him.

Hes a safe bet for 25 HR but no way 20 SB is a fair projection. Hes never had more than 16 and he has averaged just ~12 over the past 3 seasons. And players run less as they age, not more.

Also his career high 83 RBI and last year he had only 82 even with his other career best counting stats. so dont expect him to get much more than that. And as a guy with a relatively weak OBP the 103 runs he scored last year are not sustainable. Think more like 160 -165 R+RBI and not the 180+ a lot of people are expecting out of him

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It seems to me that Austin Jackson profiles to be Adam Jones this year. Fair comp?

I don't think so, unless it's the pedestrian SBs. The next time Jackson cracks 19HRs will be the first time, while jones has had at least that many 4 years running. He doubled up Jackson in homers last year (32/16).

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Here's an interesting point no one has mentioned, and none of us really know the answer...

Jones came out last season like a bull on fire, without question was one of baseballs top 3 to 5 hitters through April and May. As May ended he began having discomfort with his wrists. He missed some games, and it was reported he barely took any batting practice through the final 4 months of the season. All MRIs came back clean, but he wasn't close to the same hitter the rest of the season and you could see the pain he was playing through. Nothing is more important to a hitter than his wrists/hands. I remember Showalter saying Jones probably shouldn't be out there but he won't come out of the lineup.

Jones didn't get any wrist surgery this offseason from what I've read, sounded like the nature of the pain was mostly inflammation issues mixed in with a Morrow HBP. So here are the questions. Is the real Adam Jones that guy that looked like he figure it out and everything was clicking during April and May? Was that just a hot start? Is this wrist issue something that could be chronic pain and effect him this season or just a one season deal?

I'm not a HUGE Adam Jones guy due to his free swinging ways, but man - early last year something really clicked and I wonder if that is who he will become but was just plagued by pain for the final 4 months. He isn't someone I'm highlighting to draft, but in the right spot I'd be all over him. BUT - if I hear ANYTHING regarding Jones and wrists from a negative standpoint this spring - I'm not touching him.

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This guy outperforms his peripherals every goddamn season. Maybe he is just going to be one of these contact/hack/low OBP% guys that can thrive ala Vlad Guerrero. He walked like 30 times last year and sports a career .320 OBP. I still dont believe, especially considering his price this season. I will totally admit I am probably in the minority with my position and he has proved me wrong 2 straight years and running.

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Hitting under .100 this spring. I wonder what is wrong with him?

If we started worrying about spring stats, Cliff Lee would go undrafted every year.

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This guy outperforms his peripherals every goddamn season. Maybe he is just going to be one of these contact/hack/low OBP% guys that can thrive ala Vlad Guerrero. He walked like 30 times last year and sports a career .320 OBP. I still dont believe, especially considering his price this season. I will totally admit I am probably in the minority with my position and he has proved me wrong 2 straight years and running.

Vlad had a rep as a huge hacker, but he actually drew a lot more BBs than Jones. Vlad had one year where he drew 84 BBs and regularly drew 60-70 BBs in his prime. Jones is a mega-hacker, dude walks about 25-30 times per season. He may chase more breaking balls in the opposite batter's box than any guy in the league.

Best comp for Jones would be Andre Dawson, who never walked but managed to put up solid numbers most years. Jones isn't as good as Dawson, but it's a similar profile. With a hitter like Jones who is an extremely low BB guy, you just worry about randomly horrid years because of the poor approach.

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Good post and solid comp

Vlad had a rep as a huge hacker, but he actually drew a lot more BBs than Jones. Vlad had one year where he drew 84 BBs and regularly drew 60-70 BBs in his prime. Jones is a mega-hacker, dude walks about 25-30 times per season. He may chase more breaking balls in the opposite batter's box than any guy in the league.

Best comp for Jones would be Andre Dawson, who never walked but managed to put up solid numbers most years. Jones isn't as good as Dawson, but it's a similar profile. With a hitter like Jones who is an extremely low BB guy, you just worry about randomly horrid years because of the poor approach.

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Hitting under .100 this spring. I wonder what is wrong with him?

If we started worrying about spring stats, Cliff Lee would go undrafted every year.

I get your point but under .100? Even in the classic he didn't hit either.

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