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Bryce Harper 2013 Outlook

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The sensation is fresh off an NL ROY award. He has great potential and will be hitting in a stacked Nationals lineup. Can he put his potential together and put a solid season? Or will his inconsistency issues from last year carry over and frustrate all of his owners?

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that early ADP someone posted had Harper going like 36th. I don't doubt his potential to live up to that, but I think name > production at this point.

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Stacked Nats lineup?

Span

Harper/Desmond (likely Harper)

Zimmerman

LaRoche/Morse (more than likely only one will be there next year)

Werth

Harper/Desmond (likely Desmond)

Espinosa

Suzuki/Ramos

Pitcher

Are you really going to say that is not a pretty good lineup? Harper will likely hit second and score a lot of runs with solid hitters like Zim, LaRoche, Werth, and Desmond hitting behind him to knock him in.

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Span

Harper/Desmond (likely Harper)

Zimmerman

LaRoche/Morse (more than likely only one will be there next year)

Werth

Harper/Desmond (likely Desmond)

Espinosa

Suzuki/Ramos

Pitcher

Are you really going to say that is not a pretty good lineup? Harper will likely hit second and score a lot of runs with solid hitters like Zim, LaRoche, Werth, and Desmond hitting behind him to knock him in.

Going position-by-position, that's probably average everywhere except SS and 3B. Werth/Harper/Span is a nice OF, but not meaningfully above average unless Harper really does hit 30+ HR. Suzuki, Espinosa and Morse probably add up to average at their positions.

What has me really thrilled about the Nats as a DC resident is their insane pitching staff. Dan Haren at your #4? Awesome:

Strasburg (CY candidate)

Gio (CY candidate)

Zimmermann (#2 on most teams)

Haren (#2 on most teams)

Detwiler

Bullpen: Clippard, Storen

Above average hitting plus what may be the best pitching staff in baseball (gotta rank them against LA) = a really good team.

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Stacked Nats lineup?

Span

Harper/Desmond (likely Harper)

Zimmerman

LaRoche/Morse (more than likely only one will be there next year)

Werth

Harper/Desmond (likely Desmond)

Espinosa

Suzuki/Ramos

Pitcher

Are you really going to say that is not a pretty good lineup? Harper will likely hit second and score a lot of runs with solid hitters like Zim, LaRoche, Werth, and Desmond hitting behind him to knock him in.

Yeah don't sleep on Zimmerman, LaRoche, and Desmond. I'm not the biggest Jayson Werth fan either, but he is an above average OF as well.

Hell once Zimmerman got his cortisone shot back near the end of June he was a top 10 hitter from that point forward.

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He is no stranger to exceeding expectations. I expect .285/30/90/25 and about 110 runs scored barring injury. If you think I'm expecting too much I say wait and see just make sure he is on your team if possible

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He is no stranger to exceeding expectations. I expect .285/30/90/25 and about 110 runs scored barring injury. If you think I'm expecting too much I say wait and see just make sure he is on your team if possible

yeah you're right. considering his AAA numbers compared to MLB, just seems like he is growing at an unbelievable rate. it is hard to imagine him doing much worse than that projection, and he could be the #1 player. I wasn't on board a couple of weeks ago but I'm starting to follow your line of thought. late-2nd wouldn't be too much of a stretch.

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Exactly. Obv not 1st round guy yet but if he slips past 2nd round in all formats you have to take a flyer...

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I don't see him running as much this year, definitely less than 20 total SB. Last year when he started getting in the groove in the 2nd half, he only stole 9 bags (in more AB's than the first half where he stole 10). I see him at a 20-max SB guy, not a 20-floor guy.

.284-27-20 with 180 R/RBI (somewhere between 100/80 if he bats 2nd and 80/100 if he bats middle of the order)

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Stacked Nats lineup?

Span

Harper/Desmond (likely Harper)

Zimmerman

LaRoche/Morse (more than likely only one will be there next year)

Werth

Harper/Desmond (likely Desmond)

Espinosa

Suzuki/Ramos

Pitcher

Are you really going to say that is not a pretty good lineup? Harper will likely hit second and score a lot of runs with solid hitters like Zim, LaRoche, Werth, and Desmond hitting behind him to knock him in.

Fair enough... they have got a pretty solid lineup when you look at it.... just not used to them being good yet.

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I don't see him running as much this year, definitely less than 20 total SB. Last year when he started getting in the groove in the 2nd half, he only stole 9 bags (in more AB's than the first half where he stole 10). I see him at a 20-max SB guy, not a 20-floor guy.

.284-27-20 with 180 R/RBI (somewhere between 100/80 if he bats 2nd and 80/100 if he bats middle of the order)

Yea I'm in line with this thinking but won't bet against him doing more

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I don't see him running as much this year, definitely less than 20 total SB. Last year when he started getting in the groove in the 2nd half, he only stole 9 bags (in more AB's than the first half where he stole 10). I see him at a 20-max SB guy, not a 20-floor guy.

.284-27-20 with 180 R/RBI (somewhere between 100/80 if he bats 2nd and 80/100 if he bats middle of the order)

Yea I'm in line with this thinking but won't bet against him doing more

I can see him beating those numbers and I can see him not reaching some of those numbers. I tend not to go nuts when projecting guys in January.

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I don't see him running as much this year, definitely less than 20 total SB. Last year when he started getting in the groove in the 2nd half, he only stole 9 bags (in more AB's than the first half where he stole 10). I see him at a 20-max SB guy, not a 20-floor guy.

.284-27-20 with 180 R/RBI (somewhere between 100/80 if he bats 2nd and 80/100 if he bats middle of the order)

Wha, wha, what? ?? I'd bet my life on him stealing > 20 bags this year!

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Wha, wha, what? ?? I'd bet my life on him stealing > 20 bags this year!

Explain to me why? If he bats 2nd most of the year I think he'll beat that 20 number, but if he bats 5th for a portion of the year (which I think he will now with Morse gone) I don't think he gets much more than 20 SB.

He stole 19 last year, and only 9 in the 2nd half where he had the majority of his AB's.

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Wha, wha, what? ?? I'd bet my life on him stealing > 20 bags this year!

Explain to me why? If he bats 2nd most of the year I think he'll beat that 20 number, but if he bats 5th for a portion of the year (which I think he will now with Morse gone) I don't think he gets much more than 20 SB.

He stole 19 last year, and only 9 in the 2nd half where he had the majority of his AB's.

Well he hit .270 with a .340 obp. Both those should improve this yr. I think he'll be steady at the #2 spot in the order. You have to take advantage of all that speed. While he has nice power, i think they want him at the top of the lineup scoring runs, getting on base, getting more ab's etc etc.

I think he steals close to 30 IMO.

I'd project: .285/ 25 hr's/ 80+ rbi's and 27 sb's

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You have to take advantage of all that speed. While he has nice power

You do know that he has probably the highest Power rating of any player over the last decade outside of Giacarlo Stanton? Taking advantage of speed is one thing, but they have to take advantage of his power in a power slot of the lineup soon, and I think with Morse gone that is going to be sooner than later.

Their lineup is way better with Harper 5th/6th and Desmond 2nd...there's no way Werth and/or Zimmerman stay healthy the whole year, and Adam Laroche is bound to regress a good amount -- at some point this year they HAVE to move Harper to the middle of the order.

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You have to take advantage of all that speed. While he has nice power

You do know that he has probably the highest Power rating of any player over the last decade outside of Giacarlo Stanton? Taking advantage of speed is one thing, but they have to take advantage of his power in a power slot of the lineup soon, and I think with Morse gone that is going to be sooner than later.

Their lineup is way better with Harper 5th/6th and Desmond 2nd...there's no way Werth and/or Zimmerman stay healthy the whole year, and Adam Laroche is bound to regress a good amount -- at some point this year they HAVE to move Harper to the middle of the order.

He's still a ways away from Stanton type power. Heck, he's still growing! lol

If there is an injury or something, that could change things but 2nd is where he belongs in that lineup currently stated.

And no way would they hit this kid 6th! I actually think 2nd/3rd with Zimm protecting him is more realistic.

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I would actually make this the lineup to stretch it out some:

Span

Desmond

Harper

Zimmerman

Laroche/Werth

Werth/Laroche

Espinosa

Ramos

SP

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Doesn't really matter where he hits, just don't see anywhere near 30 steals. You said you like his OBP to go up, that's gonna include a lot more 2B's and HR's, where he's not gonna have a lot of SB attempts. He'll be on first a good amount of times, but he strikes out a lot and is not a monster BB guy (he'd rather get a hit than get walked), not gonna be a .380+ OBP guy for a few years at the earliest

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Doesn't really matter where he hits, just don't see anywhere near 30 steals. You said you like his OBP to go up, that's gonna include a lot more 2B's and HR's, where he's not gonna have a lot of SB attempts. He'll be on first a good amount of times, but he strikes out a lot and is not a monster BB guy (he'd rather get a hit than get walked), not gonna be a .380+ OBP guy for a few years at the earliest

you're talking about a guy who hit better at MLB than in AAA.

he is improving at a rapid rate. saying "he is not going to do _____ for a few years" is foolish.

he is a walking outlier.

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Listen I love Bryce Harper a lot more than even most of you pimping him on here, been following him since his sophomore year of high school, but you have to realize if you are pumping up his HR and RBI's, then he's not going to keep stealing bases at the same (or even a 50% jump) from last year's numbers. Something has to give, he's not going to be a 30/30 guy THIS year, not just yet.

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Doesn't really matter where he hits, just don't see anywhere near 30 steals. You said you like his OBP to go up, that's gonna include a lot more 2B's and HR's, where he's not gonna have a lot of SB attempts. He'll be on first a good amount of times, but he strikes out a lot and is not a monster BB guy (he'd rather get a hit than get walked), not gonna be a .380+ OBP guy for a few years at the earliest

you're talking about a guy who hit better at MLB than in AAA.

he is improving at a rapid rate. saying "he is not going to do _____ for a few years" is foolish.

he is a walking outlier.

I agree with both of you here. I also don't see him getting 30 steals this year (more around 25, but thats not like that big of a difference). Harper will keep improving drastically, and I honestly dont even know where to begin projecting him this year.

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I may be foolish for tempering my expectations of him this year, but I think you are much more foolish to be paying full price for a 20-year old because you expect him to go .290/30/30, I understand he's the best prospect in years, but those numbers are ridiculous...just because Mike Trout did it last year, doesn't mean Harper's a lock to do it this year.

Go ask all the people who overpicked Eric Hosmer, Brett Lawrie & Matt Moore last year if it was worth the price they paid.

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