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Ragnaroker

Jacoby Ellsbury 2013 Outlook

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Coming off an injury riddled season, can he come close to the power/speed combo he put up in 2011?

I'm really interested to see if he remains with the Red Sox for 2013. It makes a lot of sense for them to move him for elite pitching, and then re-sign Cody Ross, especially now that Victorino is there and could play CF. Either way here is hoping for a 2011 repeat. Anyone know of any trade rumors other than the one the Phillies shot down for Cliff Lee?

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I wouldn't really hold your breath on a trade. A lot of teams have filled CF recently and their aren't many teams out there that would be looking for one. Plus, Bourn is still available, so a team will likely sign him first before trading a solid prospect for Ellsbury.

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I wouldn't really hold your breath on a trade. A lot of teams have filled CF recently and their aren't many teams out there that would be looking for one. Plus, Bourn is still available, so a team will likely sign him first before trading a solid prospect for Ellsbury.

Agreed. But it's fun to speculate and a trade does make sense on some levels for the Red Sox.

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I'd love if he was traded for an elite pitcher. As for fantasy, his 2011 is a Joe Mauer-like abberation. Playing for a big pay day, I would certainly expect him to be locked in this year though. I'd put him down for around .290ave/13hr/58rbi/40sb/95runs. He will probably be overrated in drafts though.

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I'm expecting a big season. The injury was a fluke thing. Got hurt when a guy fell on him. Ellsbury is way too talented not to expect elite performance. I also think his power will spike as the season progresses.

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do you guys think he can have good numbers this year. not even asking for 2011. just top 15 OF.

I think he'll be good this year. The injury wasn't his fault. If he plays all year, he should put up decent numbers.

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Any more projections out there? He's on all three of my teams this year.

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somewhere around .300 15hr 37sb 97runs 71rbis

and there's upside for more. a 20-40 year with 100 runs and 80rbi wouldn't shock me

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I'm going to make a bold statement. I bet this guy ends up being higher ranked this year on player rater and other player rating scales than Mike Trout. I think he is going to be the best value player in the league. That lineup is reloaded, he is in a contract year, he is 1 year removed from one of the best fantasy seasons of the past 10 years. I could see him going for .365 OBP, 120 runs, 20 HR, 75 RBI, 40 SB's. Now stash my comment away of him being ranked better than Trout and lets check it at the end of the season :)

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very High ceiling ... very low floor ... do you feel lucky. Personally I think he's going to be Top 10 OF.

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I'm targeting Ellsbury everywhere I can this year. Sure, there's inflated injury risk, but the upside is huge for what you're going to pay for him. Healthy (for now), good lineup behind him, contract year....

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Guys like TuloWIMPski are guys that I place the injury prone tag on. Ellsbury is more in the unlucky category. His 2 major injuries were what an outfield collision that shattered his rib cage, and then a guy falling on him sliding into second and seperated his shoulder. He has never really had hammy strains, quad strains, calf strains etc. that make him miss games. Outside of the 2 freak injuries he has been pretty much ailment free the rest of his career.

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Let me first state that I do like Ellsbury for 2013. However,

His career year was 2 years ago when he was 27 years old. His next highest HR total for any year (MLB or MiLB) is 9 and his next highest RBI total is 60.

He may have had 2 "freakish" injuries but he took an extremely long time returning from both of them. When he breaks, he breaks badly.

When he's good, he's very very good ... but when he's bad he is horrid

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Let me first state that I do like Ellsbury for 2013. However,

His career year was 2 years ago when he was 27 years old. His next highest HR total for any year (MLB or MiLB) is 9 and his next highest RBI total is 60.

He may have had 2 "freakish" injuries but he took an extremely long time returning from both of them. When he breaks, he breaks badly.

When he's good, he's very very good ... but when he's bad he is horrid

No middle ground, you'll either get an elite star, or a piece of crap that will make you want to quit fantasy baseball at midseason.

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Let me first state that I do like Ellsbury for 2013. However,

His career year was 2 years ago when he was 27 years old. His next highest HR total for any year (MLB or MiLB) is 9 and his next highest RBI total is 60.

He may have had 2 "freakish" injuries but he took an extremely long time returning from both of them. When he breaks, he breaks badly.

When he's good, he's very very good ... but when he's bad he is horrid

No middle ground, you'll either get an elite star, or a piece of crap that will make you want to quit fantasy baseball at midseason.

The good news is this year you can get him in say the 4th round instead of the end of the first where he was going last year. Having your 4th or 5th round pick totally flop is not as devastating.

I think I am in on him again this year. Last year the thing that annoyed me was he wasn't really stealing bases when he came back. It may have been Bobby V who is notorious for not liking the running game though.

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He's gonna go off this year. You get him in round 4, you got a good chance to win your league. I'll consider "reaching" for him in round 3.

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He's gonna go off this year. You get him in round 4, you got a good chance to win your league. I'll consider "reaching" for him in round 3.

Gonna go off based on what?

His power spike was clearly an outlier, and the Sawks are simply not a very potent lineup this year. He's Michael Bourn with one more year of double-digit homers. I'll take Bourn 20 spots later if I want a veteran speedster.

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He's gonna go off this year. You get him in round 4, you got a good chance to win your league. I'll consider "reaching" for him in round 3.

Gonna go off based on what?

His power spike was clearly an outlier, and the Sawks are simply not a very potent lineup this year. He's Michael Bourn with one more year of double-digit homers. I'll take Bourn 20 spots later if I want a veteran speedster.

I agree. He had one season with nice power numbers and RBI's. Sure he is a .300 hitter, but no way this guy will hit more than 15 HR.He's always had weak ISO numbers, however, he should be a sure bet for 35+ SB's if he stays healthy. .305/12 HR/68 RBI/40 SB

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My apologies to LyondellBaseball I think came off a bit harsh. I had been messaging on another thread with someone who was trashing me based on "I think" or "I feel" and I guess I was still in defense mode. It's my opinion that Ellsbury doesn't have more than 12 HR power, that his 32 HR year was truly an outlier. His performance history shows no other years of double digit HR at any professional level. Based on my opinion a guy like Bourn is more valuable at a pick 2 rounds later.

That's just my opinion. Thanks.

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I'm expecting a big season. The injury was a fluke thing. Got hurt when a guy fell on him. Ellsbury is way too talented not to expect elite performance. I also think his power will spike as the season progresses.

A fluke. Just like his other season ending fluke injury. Dude is brittle as hell. Expect him to spend some more time on the DL.

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Missed a ton of time due to injuries during the time that is supposed to be most men's physical peak. Speed wanes as players get older and Jacoby has exactly one season where he hit over 9 HRs. I don't think this is the year to draft him as most people will expect a huge rebund based on his 2011 production.

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I've posted in this forum how I think he's overrated in fantasy (and I also hope in real life the Sox don't resign him/ or they trade him), but I wouldn't question his speed. Aaron Hill never stole bases until Farrell came to Toronto, same as Edwin Encarnacion who hadn't had more than 2 steals in a season since 2007. Travis Snider stole 9 bases in 49 games in 2011. Of course Rajai Davis did his thing when he played. The Blue Jays weren't a stolen base machine, and since they only had Davis as a 35+ steal guy they likely were towards the bottom of the steals leaders, but Farrell was able to get the most out of his guys. Anytime there was someone who could swipe bags, like Gose who stole 15 in 56 games last year, he let them. This Sawx offense does have potential because they have guys that can hit and at every position, but there's no Manny/Ortiz in their prime, or even Agonz. This team may have to manufacture an extra run or two, especially if the pitching staff blows again. Ellsbury should be off and running for however long he is on the Sox this year. The power is a one year outlier, but he has the potential to be a plus contributor in 3 cats (average, runs, steals). I wouldn't compare him to Bourn since Bourn has zero power upside and Ellsbury has at least shown if he hits 15 this year it wouldn't be a shock. Depending on your league settings or team needs, he could be very valuable. For a personal reference, in an al-only league a few of my keepers are Longoria, Trumbo, and Middlebrooks so I will be looking to bid on some speed in my draft to balance it out. However, in a re-draft if I drafted a Trout or McCutchen or Cargo or anyone who even just gets 20+ bags, I'd probably wait to draft a Desmond Jennings type later on. I think Ellsbury will be fine this year, but just don't reach for him because of one great season.

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My apologies to LyondellBaseball I think came off a bit harsh. I had been messaging on another thread with someone who was trashing me based on "I think" or "I feel" and I guess I was still in defense mode. It's my opinion that Ellsbury doesn't have more than 12 HR power, that his 32 HR year was truly an outlier. His performance history shows no other years of double digit HR at any professional level. Based on my opinion a guy like Bourn is more valuable at a pick 2 rounds later.

That's just my opinion. Thanks.

Ha. No need, but thanks ... I'm an Ellsbury homer, plain and simple.

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He's gonna go off this year. You get him in round 4, you got a good chance to win your league. I'll consider "reaching" for him in round 3.

Gonna go off based on what?

His power spike was clearly an outlier, and the Sawks are simply not a very potent lineup this year. He's Michael Bourn with one more year of double-digit homers. I'll take Bourn 20 spots later if I want a veteran speedster.

How are the Sox's not very potent this year? They reloaded this offseason. There lineup is great.......

Ellsbury

Victorino

Pedroia

Ortiz

Middlebrooks

Napoli

Gomes

Saltalamacchia/Ross

Stephen Drew

That is one of the deepest lineups in the league. They have speed, power, OBP, a little of everything.

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