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Michael Pineda 2013 Outlook

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Anyone know anything more concrete than "back this year?" Late round grab, or still too risky to draft?

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I'd say late round, though I'm sure by the time you draft, you'll know his return status more. Even if he does return, he's been off of pitching for a year and he's starting up in the AL East in a hitter's park, where last he pitched was the AL West in a pitcher's park. So... it could go badly, but if he's out there and he's coming back, why not grab him and see what kind of success you can ride.

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He wasn't a fluke for his Seattle year, but that was because he was in Seattle. He's a flyball pitcher that will get lit up in Yankee Stadium and in the slugging AL East. Pineda is someone to avoid this year. He's never going to be anything more than a matchup play when he is away as long as he is with the Yankees.

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He wasn't a fluke for his Seattle year, but that was because he was in Seattle. He's a flyball pitcher that will get lit up in Yankee Stadium and in the slugging AL East. Pineda is someone to avoid this year. He's never going to be anything more than a matchup play when he is away as long as he is with the Yankees.

I'd say a sleeper/breakout more than an avoid... I'm assuming his ADP is going to be at 150 or higher. Nova and Hughes were very useful in deep mixed and certainly AL Only leagues last year... I'd venture to say Pineda has higher upside (even for next year) than both. This is all speculation based on him being ready to throw by spring training and all signs pointing to him being fine.

Yankees quietly have a pretty nice rotation with some depth.

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I don't mind gambling on guys with elbow surgeries, but I generally don't target guys with shoulder problems. Until I see the velocity back up I am going to pass unless I can get him SUPER late in a deeper draft.

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Anyone know anything more concrete than "back this year?" Late round grab, or still too risky to draft?

Ive been doing my starting pitching prep over the last month, I had him in the mid-season return category coming off injury, but might be worth a grab and stash.

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I don't mind gambling on guys with elbow surgeries, but I generally don't target guys with shoulder problems. Until I see the velocity back up I am going to pass unless I can get him SUPER late in a deeper draft.

labrums used to be a death sentence for SPs but it's now an injury a pitcher can bounce back from. good point about the velocity. that's exactly what we need to be monitoring.

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there's very little justification for believing pineda is going to come back strong this year. who has come back from a labrum tear and done remarkably well the season after? it's not a long list, if its even a list at all.

jeff francis has done okay, but it took more than a year to become what he's become.

erik bedard had some really hot stretches, but his career, as we all know, was full of ups and downs and stops and starts after his tear.

al lieter, schilling and chris carpenter are the only guys i remember off hand that seemed to come back and not miss a beat. and i'm not sure how quick there rehab took until their old selves.

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there's very little justification for believing pineda is going to come back strong this year. who has come back from a labrum tear and done remarkably well the season after? it's not a long list, if its even a list at all.

jeff francis has done okay, but it took more than a year to become what he's become.

erik bedard had some really hot stretches, but his career, as we all know, was full of ups and downs and stops and starts after his tear.

al lieter, schilling and chris carpenter are the only guys i remember off hand that seemed to come back and not miss a beat. and i'm not sure how quick there rehab took until their old selves.

old guys Leiter, Schilling, Clemens

more recent guys Lilly and Anibal Sanchez and RPs Rauch, Isringhausen, Valverde

lots of failures too obviously (ruined Prior and Mulder).

definitely not a sure thing, but there have been successes and we know how fast medical science has been improving.

I also found this: As Yankees team physician Dr. Chris Ahmad noted, Pineda's rotator cuff is undamaged, a key detail when it comes to his outlook: "When the rotator cuff is damaged as part of the injury problem, that has a much worse prognosis and influences velocity and ability to pitch. His rotator cuff looks great, and this is isolated to his labrum, and that’s why we feel more optimistic about him having a good result."

it's far from a guarantee but if we see some positive reports on velocity he's probably worth gambling on.

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with pineda being so young and so raw, will he have the cerebral approach to have success if his stuff is a little off and not as overpowering right out of the gate as it was in 2011? he doesn't have the savy of a Lilly

Lilly did make a nice first year comeback in 2010 from his labrum surgery, but guess what he had operated on again this Sept? the shoulder.

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I loved Pineda his first year in Seattle. He was really fun to watch and I think was way more than a product of the ballpark. Great movement on his FB and Slider. If there are good reports in the spring I will def take a flyer...but I won't reach for him... don't like shoulder injuries and I agree that Yankee stadium is going to be a tough place for him to play. Even if health it could take him half the year to figure out how to pitch there.

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I loved Pineda his first year in Seattle. He was really fun to watch and I think was way more than a product of the ballpark. Great movement on his FB and Slider. If there are good reports in the spring I will def take a flyer...but I won't reach for him... don't like shoulder injuries and I agree that Yankee stadium is going to be a tough place for him to play. Even if health it could take him half the year to figure out how to pitch there.

he does have name brand value, but I suspect his ADP will be >200. that is about where I got Carpenter the year he rejuvenated his career and he also had name brand value as a former CY winner.

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I loved Pineda his first year in Seattle. He was really fun to watch and I think was way more than a product of the ballpark. Great movement on his FB and Slider. If there are good reports in the spring I will def take a flyer...but I won't reach for him... don't like shoulder injuries and I agree that Yankee stadium is going to be a tough place for him to play. Even if health it could take him half the year to figure out how to pitch there.

I agree with this. Pineda's is the type of player that you won't go out of your way to get, but will take him if you can get him at a decent price. I still think he will be nothing more than a matchup play when he is on the road. Yankee Stadium and the AL East can eat pitchers up.

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He wasn't a fluke for his Seattle year, but that was because he was in Seattle. He's a flyball pitcher that will get lit up in Yankee Stadium and in the slugging AL East. Pineda is someone to avoid this year. He's never going to be anything more than a matchup play when he is away as long as he is with the Yankees.

The Slugging AL East?

The AL East isn't what it once was. Boston (11th in OPS last year) is rebuilding, Baltimore (12th in OPS last year) was a bit lucky, Toronto was 17th last year, Tampa Bay was 20th.

The AL East once you take The Yankees out of the equation is basically like pitching to average teams.

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He wasn't a fluke for his Seattle year, but that was because he was in Seattle. He's a flyball pitcher that will get lit up in Yankee Stadium and in the slugging AL East. Pineda is someone to avoid this year. He's never going to be anything more than a matchup play when he is away as long as he is with the Yankees.

The Slugging AL East?

The AL East isn't what it once was. Boston (11th in OPS last year) is rebuilding, Baltimore (12th in OPS last year) was a bit lucky, Toronto was 17th last year, Tampa Bay was 20th.

The AL East once you take The Yankees out of the equation is basically like pitching to average teams.

I really meant that the AL East is a tough place to pitch. The O's offense can get to pitchers and Camden is a hitter's park. Fenway is tough on pitchers. Even if the Red Sox offense isn't what it once was, Fenway can still get to pitchers. The Jays offense got a huge boost earlier when they basically took the Marlins lineup. Even Tampa has Longoria. Basically, the AL East doesn't really have any easy teams. I'm not convinced Pineda will be successful outside of Seattle.

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I really meant that the AL East is a tough place to pitch. The O's offense can get to pitchers and Camden is a hitter's park. Fenway is tough on pitchers. Even if the Red Sox offense isn't what it once was, Fenway can still get to pitchers. The Jays offense got a huge boost earlier when they basically took the Marlins lineup. Even Tampa has Longoria. Basically, the AL East doesn't really have any easy teams. I'm not convinced Pineda will be successful outside of Seattle.

Plenty of pitchers with lesser talent have had success in the AL East. Even when it was a much stronger hitting division and I'm talking guys who had to face insane Yankees lineups on a regular basis.

True there isn't any terrible hitting teams in the AL East but at the same time the one and only monster hitting team is The Yankees themselves.

And honestly outside of The NL Central and The NL East every division is fairly solid across the board.

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I really meant that the AL East is a tough place to pitch. The O's offense can get to pitchers and Camden is a hitter's park. Fenway is tough on pitchers. Even if the Red Sox offense isn't what it once was, Fenway can still get to pitchers. The Jays offense got a huge boost earlier when they basically took the Marlins lineup. Even Tampa has Longoria. Basically, the AL East doesn't really have any easy teams. I'm not convinced Pineda will be successful outside of Seattle.

Plenty of pitchers with lesser talent have had success in the AL East. Even when it was a much stronger hitting division and I'm talking guys who had to face insane Yankees lineups on a regular basis.

True there isn't any terrible hitting teams in the AL East but at the same time the one and only monster hitting team is The Yankees themselves.

And honestly outside of The NL Central and The NL East every division is fairly solid across the board.

AL Central is a joke other than the Tigers.

I agree though. Pineda can overcome the park and division.

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I wouldn't call The AL Central a joke (at least hitting wise).

League ranks in OPS

DET 7th, CHW 10th, KC 15th, MIN 18th, CLE 22nd. Also keep in mind MIN, KC, and CLE are relatively young and are expected to see some solid improvements this year.

The Tigers and Whitesox should pretty much be the same teams lineup wise.

Don't be surprised if The AL Central is a better hitting division than The AL East.

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I wouldn't call The AL Central a joke (at least hitting wise).

League ranks in OPS

DET 7th, CHW 10th, KC 15th, MIN 18th, CLE 22nd. Also keep in mind MIN, KC, and CLE are relatively young and are expected to see some solid improvements this year.

The Tigers and Whitesox should pretty much be the same teams lineup wise.

Don't be surprised if The AL Central is a better hitting division than The AL East.

obviously their OPS will be inflated considering they got a DH and 16 other teams had to let their hitters pitch.

not sure what you're seeing:

- Tigers added by subtracting Delmon Young and Raburn, and won't play Boesch as much. not expecting much from Torii unless he puts up another luckbox BABIP. they get V-Mart back. they're a legitimately good offense, and borderline elite.

- KC is young and should improve. if Hosmer sucks, at least he won't be doing it hitting 3rd and 4th. full year of Perez. Cain is always hurt so won't bank on a full year of him. still a very average offense.

- White Sox overperformed last year. lost Pierzynski who had a huge year, and Rios can't be counted on to do what he did. Konerko might be over the cliff.

- Cleveland added Reynolds and Stubbs but lost Choo. net loss if they don't add Swisher.

- Minnesota arguably has the absolute worst offense in baseball.

should be 4 teams in the bottom half of the league in scoring offense.

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I wouldn't call The AL Central a joke (at least hitting wise).

League ranks in OPS

DET 7th, CHW 10th, KC 15th, MIN 18th, CLE 22nd. Also keep in mind MIN, KC, and CLE are relatively young and are expected to see some solid improvements this year.

The Tigers and Whitesox should pretty much be the same teams lineup wise.

Don't be surprised if The AL Central is a better hitting division than The AL East.

obviously their OPS will be inflated considering they got a DH and 16 other teams had to let their hitters pitch.

not sure what you're seeing:

- Tigers added by subtracting Delmon Young and Raburn, and won't play Boesch as much. not expecting much from Torii unless he puts up another luckbox BABIP. they get V-Mart back. they're a legitimately good offense, and borderline elite.

- KC is young and should improve. if Hosmer sucks, at least he won't be doing it hitting 3rd and 4th. full year of Perez. Cain is always hurt so won't bank on a full year of him. still a very average offense.

- White Sox overperformed last year. lost Pierzynski who had a huge year, and Rios can't be counted on to do what he did. Konerko might be over the cliff.

- Cleveland added Reynolds and Stubbs but lost Choo. net loss if they don't add Swisher.

- Minnesota arguably has the absolute worst offense in baseball.

should be 4 teams in the bottom half of the league in scoring offense.

What does having a DH have anything to do with anything?

They will have a DH this year same as last year. If they have a DH and their lineup is better than an NL team, then they have a DH and their lineup is better than an NL team. It's not like the DH will be taken away this year.

That's like saying, "LeBron James is only the best basketball player because he's so huge." Well if LeBron being that huge is what helps him be one of the best basketball players than so be it.

If Hosmer sucks in KC. Which I (along with a lot of this community) have have that he won't. There's still Alex Gordon, Alcides Escobar, Frenchy, Moose, and the ever so popular speed power combo sleeper in Lorenzo Cain.

The Royals could honestly be looking at a top 8 offense this year in all likelyhood.

Those are a lot of pretty big "might bes". Konerko is getting older but he just continues to rake. Every team has players step up with big years. Rios having a big year is what everyone has been waiting for. Rios has always been one heck of a hitter, he fell into a bit of a funk there for awhile but I think he's ready to roll. A.J. is gone but even with his career year it isn't as if that bat isn't replaceable. So I am having trouble following your logic to think that The Whitesox will all of a sudden be a bad offense. Dayan Viciedo made big strides last year and is should continue on with a steady rate of improvement. Gordon Beckham may actually finally breakout.

How does Cleveland get a net loss when they added two proven bats and only lost one. I know Choo is clearly the better player but overall the production they will get out of Stubbs and Reynolds will surely be more than what Choo gave them.

Don't know how you figure Minnesota to be one of the worst offenses in baseball?...

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I wouldn't call The AL Central a joke (at least hitting wise).

League ranks in OPS

DET 7th, CHW 10th, KC 15th, MIN 18th, CLE 22nd. Also keep in mind MIN, KC, and CLE are relatively young and are expected to see some solid improvements this year.

The Tigers and Whitesox should pretty much be the same teams lineup wise.

Don't be surprised if The AL Central is a better hitting division than The AL East.

obviously their OPS will be inflated considering they got a DH and 16 other teams had to let their hitters pitch.

not sure what you're seeing:

- Tigers added by subtracting Delmon Young and Raburn, and won't play Boesch as much. not expecting much from Torii unless he puts up another luckbox BABIP. they get V-Mart back. they're a legitimately good offense, and borderline elite.

- KC is young and should improve. if Hosmer sucks, at least he won't be doing it hitting 3rd and 4th. full year of Perez. Cain is always hurt so won't bank on a full year of him. still a very average offense.

- White Sox overperformed last year. lost Pierzynski who had a huge year, and Rios can't be counted on to do what he did. Konerko might be over the cliff.

- Cleveland added Reynolds and Stubbs but lost Choo. net loss if they don't add Swisher.

- Minnesota arguably has the absolute worst offense in baseball.

should be 4 teams in the bottom half of the league in scoring offense.

What does having a DH have anything to do with anything?

They will have a DH this year same as last year. If they have a DH and their lineup is better than an NL team, then they have a DH and their lineup is better than an NL team. It's not like the DH will be taken away this year.

That's like saying, "LeBron James is only the best basketball player because he's so huge." Well if LeBron being that huge is what helps him be one of the best basketball players than so be it.

If Hosmer sucks in KC. Which I (along with a lot of this community) have have that he won't. There's still Alex Gordon, Alcides Escobar, Frenchy, Moose, and the ever so popular speed power combo sleeper in Lorenzo Cain.

The Royals could honestly be looking at a top 8 offense this year in all likelyhood.

Those are a lot of pretty big "might bes". Konerko is getting older but he just continues to rake. Every team has players step up with big years. Rios having a big year is what everyone has been waiting for. Rios has always been one heck of a hitter, he fell into a bit of a funk there for awhile but I think he's ready to roll. A.J. is gone but even with his career year it isn't as if that bat isn't replaceable. So I am having trouble following your logic to think that The Whitesox will all of a sudden be a bad offense. Dayan Viciedo made big strides last year and is should continue on with a steady rate of improvement. Gordon Beckham may actually finally breakout.

How does Cleveland get a net loss when they added two proven bats and only lost one. I know Choo is clearly the better player but overall the production they will get out of Stubbs and Reynolds will surely be more than what Choo gave them.

Don't know how you figure Minnesota to be one of the worst offenses in baseball?...

obviously if you spin things and talk about everyone's upside while ignoring obvious downsides, it's all going to look very rosy. it's a weak hitting division right now. maybe a few teams add a few more decent bats, but right now anyone who says it is not a weak hitting division is deluding himself.

it's my fault for even getting involved. I know you believe in hunches, gut feelings, and bold predictions. I have no problem with it. but I am a very factual and scientific person and we're never going to see eye-to-eye.

I apologize for the above post btw. it was obnoxious.

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I'd take him - very late. So I won't get him.

I'm really not so sure that's true. baseball has so many players and guys like this often fly below the radar. this is especially true with pitchers, because a lot of people spend the 12th-17th rounds scrambling to fill out their hitting. last year, I was getting Sale around the 17th round pretty consistently. and he was getting some hype.

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I'd take him - very late. So I won't get him.

I'm really not so sure that's true. baseball has so many players and guys like this often fly below the radar. this is especially true with pitchers, because a lot of people spend the 12th-17th rounds scrambling to fill out their hitting. last year, I was getting Sale around the 17th round pretty consistently. and he was getting some hype.

He will be a late round pick... I doubt he goes before the 16th round.

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