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Baseball Jonze

Anibal Sanchez 2013 Outlook

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With Grienke signed with the Dodgers and Shields now dealt, it seems like Anibal Sanchez is now a top most teams lists and should be the next ti sign on somewhere. He came into the off-season wanting $90M over 6 years - Will he get that? Who will give it to him?

His suitors seem to be -

The Texas Rangers who missed out on Grienke, are still looking to land Justin Upton which would free them up to then pay Sanchez what he's looking for. They wanted Upton and then to sign Grienke, but if they can't trade for Upton they might need to bring back Hamilton as $10M more than they'd have to pay Upton and that could eat into their starting pitcher budget.

The Tigers who are still interested but will probably top out at a 5 year 70M offer, I think they see Sanchez as a long term #2, realizing that Scherzer will be priced out of their range - especially when they need to extend Verlander within the next year. I think they're trying to buy low on Sanchez a bit here - they saw him up close last year, but his time in Detroit is what exploded his value.

LA Angels are another suitor as they've subtracted Haren/Santana but added Tommy Hanson/Joe Blanton with Weaver and CJ Wilson - I see them in the same situation as the Tigs - they have pitching to the point the don't need Anibal, but they also have the money available where they could still grab him and plug him into the 3/4 spot.

Dodgers are out now that they got Grienke and just signed Ryu - they were said to still be interested in Anibal if they couldn't come to terms with Ryu, but they did so they're (probably?) out.

Royals were kicking the tires, but the trade yesterday eliminated them it seems.

Boston has been rumored to have shown interest, but the belief is they'll look for a cheaper shorter term option.

Another pitcher on the market is RA Dickey of the Mets, but I don't think the teams looking at Dickey would be the same in the Sanchez shopping. They're two different pitchers and cases.

Am I missing any suitors? Is there a mystery darkhorse?

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I know Duquette wanted to make a splash this offseason. I don't think they are in it at his current price, but if he backs it down some, I bet the O's would at least try for him.

The Padres were also looking at pitchers earlier in the offseason. They were supposedly in on Haren, so they could be a dark horse.

If the Mets really are intent on trading Dickey, then they could be in too trying to find his replacement.

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Tigers for 5/70 sounds about right. that would also be his best landing spot for fantasy purposes. good park, great division.

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Tigers for 5/70 sounds about right. that would also be his best landing spot for fantasy purposes. good park, great division.

The fact that he wants a deal that averages 2 million less per year than what Verlander is getting is disgusting.

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Tigers for 5/70 sounds about right. that would also be his best landing spot for fantasy purposes. good park, great division.

The fact that he wants a deal that averages 2 million less per year than what Verlander is getting is disgusting.

Sure but he's not looking for that deal as much as he's looking for a deal $10M less/year than Grienke. It's safe to assume Verlander would get $30M in the open market right now if he was a free agent. So Sanchez is looking for half of what would be Verlander's open market value today.

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Tigers for 5/70 sounds about right. that would also be his best landing spot for fantasy purposes. good park, great division.

The fact that he wants a deal that averages 2 million less per year than what Verlander is getting is disgusting.

Sure but he's not looking for that deal as much as he's looking for a deal $10M less/year than Grienke. It's safe to assume Verlander would get $30M in the open market right now if he was a free agent. So Sanchez is looking for half of what would be Verlander's open market value today.

agreed. lots of new TV money flowing the MLB pipeline these days. 5/70 is just kind of the going rate for a dependable, durable #3 SP. there just aren't enough of those to go around.

also, when Verlander had signed the contract his yearly ERAs to date were:

3.63

3.66

4.84

3.45

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Reports are saying 5 years $75M, so he got his 15M per season, just a year less than he was looking for.

If this is the money, it is an extreme overpay. Anibal is being paid like a low end ace when he really is a high end 3rd starter.

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Reports are saying 5 years $75M, so he got his 15M per season, just a year less than he was looking for.

If this is the money, it is an extreme overpay. Anibal is being paid like a low end ace when he really is a high end 3rd starter.

nah 15 mill is not ace money anymore. it is 60% of what Greinke got. this is the new marketplace and contracts in 2012 cannot be compared to contracts from 2010. it's apples to oranges.

this is purely a novelty as fWAR for pitchers is not a stat I really value, but fWAR last 3 years:

Sanchez - 12.0 WAR

Greinke - 14.2 WAR

Hamilton - 16.9 WAR

Shields - 11.1 WAR

Hamels - 13.0 WAR

Latos - 10.6 WAR

durability is valuable in real life. it means not having to call up a scrub from AAA to fill in. in fantasy, it's not as bad. in fantasy, 12 teams might have 6 SP each. that's 72 pitchers. so you have some middle-of-the-road real life #3 SPs available on waivers.

Epstein doesn't exactly have the best track record with long-term SP deals *cough* Lackey, but seems like a pretty fair deal at 5/75 to me assuming he's 100% recovered from the labrum surgery a few years ago, and is completely healthy otherwise.

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Bob Nightengale of USA Today reports that the Tigers have upped their offer to Anibal Sanchez.

What's not clear is if they've sweetened their four-year offer or given the fifth year that Sanchez wants. The Cubs have offered the right-hander a five-year, $75 million deal, but he'll re-sign with the Tigers if they agree to match the offer. Sanchez seems likely to make a decision sometime Thursday.

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If deal with either Tigs or Cubbies isn't done tonight, I could see a third team swooping in and offering the $90M over 6 - I'm looking at you Texas!

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Baseball Jonze may be onto something...

As a Cubs fan, all I can say....

I think the value is fine. He's a block to build around- it really isn't that weird of a signing if it happens.

Compare him to Matt Garza, as far as certain numbers go (and their age), and they're very similar pitchers. Garza is a likely trade chip, but maybe they'll keep him and try to work out an extension if they can start the year hot (ala Oakland or Baltimore- who the hell knows, really?). Keep in mind, the market for SP in 2014 looks pretty dry right now too...

Maybe a guy like Sanchez now is better than anything that will be available in a year or two on the open-market, when the Cubs should be expected to be competitive (and I would hope they will be...).

Put him in a rotation with Garza (at least to begin the year) and Samardzija, with other candidates like Travis Wood (likely to crack the starting-5), Scott Baker (once healthy, likely to start as well), and Scott Feldman. That isn't bad and it gives fans a reason to tune in after the worst season since the 60s... which is bad, even for the Cubs!

Another thing to keep in mind- Arodys Vizcaino, brought over in the Maholm/Reed deal to ATL, was the Braves' #2 prospect and #42 overall (I think) to begin last year, and set to play a role in the Braves' pen until having to undergo Tommy John. Fortunately, he had the surgery before the year even began, and like Baker he should be ready to play sooner than later this season. He may very well factor into the rotation at some point, but should at the least be a serviceable pen-arm once he shakes off some rust. Cubs also acquired Barrett Loux from Texas (he pitched great in AA last year, going 14-1 and winning Texas League of the year- although he is already 23 and probably more of a 4-5 on a good team long-term, or maybe bullpen-bound realistically).

Throw in the import reliever, which should shore up the pen- if Marmol truly is given a short leash and he gets the short, anyway- and they could have a formidable staff, at least all things considered. There's still a lot of random players floating out there too, and who knows what else can happen at this point- after Hamilton to ANA I wouldn't be surprised by anything at this point...

Hoyer said he wants to stockpile arms. I don't mind this movefrom a price standpoint. Honestly, I feel that Sanchez isn't too far off from a guy like Greinke, and in comparison this is a pretty good deal (given their recent numbers to date, age, etc...).

But I agree with Baseball Jonze still. Got this feeling.

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CBS Sports' Jon Heyman hears that the Cubs have pulled out of the bidding for Anibal Sanchez.

The news comes just minutes after FOX Sports' Ken Rosenthal reported that the Cubs had upped their offer to the right-hander to $77.5 million. The Tigers came back to match the Cubs' original $75 million offer, and it appears that will be enough to get it done. Sanchez posted a 3.86 ERA over 31 starts this past season for the Marlins and Tigers.

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Barf! Detroit signed him to 5 yr 80M contract!

Hell they could have got him cheaper per year at his original 6 yr 90M demand.

Not worth it.

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The Tigers who are still interested but will probably top out at a 5 year 70M offer, I think they see Sanchez as a long term #2, realizing that Scherzer will be priced out of their range - especially when they need to extend Verlander within the next year. I think they're trying to buy low on Sanchez a bit here - they saw him up close last year, but his time in Detroit is what exploded his value.

I really disagree with you on Scherzer. Just because they sign Sanchez does not mean they are giving up on Scherzer.

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Tigers for 5/70 sounds about right. that would also be his best landing spot for fantasy purposes. good park, great division.

The fact that he wants a deal that averages 2 million less per year than what Verlander is getting is disgusting.

I agee. He is nto worth it. I would let him go and try trading Garcia for a 4th starter.

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http://www.usatoday....tigers/1768619/

Reports now are that he is signing a 5yr $80 million deal with the Tigers. Otherwise known as the same contract the Tigers gave Verlander. This feels like far too much money and the Tigers should probably get ready to redo Verlanders deal early based off this. From 4 years $48 million to 5 years $80 million...unreal. Way to play that one out Dombrowski!

All for a guy that USA Today has this to say about, which is fact:

Sanchez, 28, was 9-13 with a 3.86 ERA combined with the Tigers and Miami Marlins last season. He has a 48-51 career record with a 3.75 ERA. He has never pitched 200 innings, with only one winning season since 2006

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http://www.usatoday....tigers/1768619/

Reports now are that he is signing a 5yr $80 million deal with the Tigers. Otherwise known as the same contract the Tigers gave Verlander. This feels like far too much money and the Tigers should probably get ready to redo Verlanders deal early based off this. From 4 years $48 million to 5 years $80 million...unreal. Way to play that one out Dombrowski!

All for a guy that USA Today has this to say about, which is fact:

Sanchez, 28, was 9-13 with a 3.86 ERA combined with the Tigers and Miami Marlins last season. He has a 48-51 career record with a 3.75 ERA. He has never pitched 200 innings, with only one winning season since 2006

again, you already know this, but comparing Sanchez to older contracts, especially a guy who wasn't a FA, just makes no sense. different time, different circumstance. when Edwin Jackson signs, we can compare the two contracts.

the only reason to quote W-L record is to spin this signing to make it look worse. and they conveniently left off his postseason work. Cliff Lee won 6 games last year. did he pitch poorly? also realize he's played for nothing but bad defenses his whole career. that's going to continue, but it's yet more context that needs to be considered.

5/70 seemed about right, but Tigers were willing to do what it takes. maybe it's a slight overpay, but they were in a position where adding Sanchez really puts them over the top in that division for the next several years. they upgraded Rick Porcello to Anibal Sanchez. that represents a huge upgrade.

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http://www.usatoday....tigers/1768619/

Reports now are that he is signing a 5yr $80 million deal with the Tigers. Otherwise known as the same contract the Tigers gave Verlander. This feels like far too much money and the Tigers should probably get ready to redo Verlanders deal early based off this. From 4 years $48 million to 5 years $80 million...unreal. Way to play that one out Dombrowski!

All for a guy that USA Today has this to say about, which is fact:

Sanchez, 28, was 9-13 with a 3.86 ERA combined with the Tigers and Miami Marlins last season. He has a 48-51 career record with a 3.75 ERA. He has never pitched 200 innings, with only one winning season since 2006

again, you already know this, but comparing Sanchez to older contracts, especially a guy who wasn't a FA, just makes no sense. different time, different circumstance. when Edwin Jackson signs, we can compare the two contracts.

the only reason to quote W-L record is to spin this signing. Cliff Lee won 6 games last year. did he pitch poorly?

5/70 seemed about right, Tigers were willing to do what it takes so maybe it's a slight overpay, but they were in a position where adding Sanchez really puts them over the top in that division for the next several years.

I understand that its not a great idea to compare contracts, I still think this is a pretty steep overpay for the services of Sanchez based on what hes done with his career. Hes a 3/4 starter for Detroit whos now making $16 million per year. I dont place any value in his w/l more that hes never pitched 200 innings, is a gut that is not great with ERA and has poor WHIP for his career. He rode a hot end of a season to a big contract with Detroit and leveraged the Cubs offer to get exactly what he wants, I just dont see this as a good signing to be honest. Time will tell if he can sustain pitching success to really validate the deal (though the money does keep going up). I think it becomes problematic when you pay him as much as Verlander and have both Verlander and Scherzer coming due for new deals soon.

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Im also not a fan of overpaying a guy based on a hot finish/playoff run. But its not my money so that doesnt factor in too much.

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http://www.usatoday....tigers/1768619/

Reports now are that he is signing a 5yr $80 million deal with the Tigers. Otherwise known as the same contract the Tigers gave Verlander. This feels like far too much money and the Tigers should probably get ready to redo Verlanders deal early based off this. From 4 years $48 million to 5 years $80 million...unreal. Way to play that one out Dombrowski!

All for a guy that USA Today has this to say about, which is fact:

Sanchez, 28, was 9-13 with a 3.86 ERA combined with the Tigers and Miami Marlins last season. He has a 48-51 career record with a 3.75 ERA. He has never pitched 200 innings, with only one winning season since 2006

again, you already know this, but comparing Sanchez to older contracts, especially a guy who wasn't a FA, just makes no sense. different time, different circumstance. when Edwin Jackson signs, we can compare the two contracts.

the only reason to quote W-L record is to spin this signing. Cliff Lee won 6 games last year. did he pitch poorly?

5/70 seemed about right, Tigers were willing to do what it takes so maybe it's a slight overpay, but they were in a position where adding Sanchez really puts them over the top in that division for the next several years.

I understand that its not a great idea to compare contracts, I still think this is a pretty steep overpay for the services of Sanchez based on what hes done with his career. Hes a 3/4 starter for Detroit whos now making $16 million per year. I dont place any value in his w/l more that hes never pitched 200 innings, is a gut that is not great with ERA and has poor WHIP for his career. He rode a hot end of a season to a big contract with Detroit and leveraged the Cubs offer to get exactly what he wants, I just dont see this as a good signing to be honest. Time will tell if he can sustain pitching success to really validate the deal (though the money does keep going up). I think it becomes problematic when you pay him as much as Verlander and have both Verlander and Scherzer coming due for new deals soon.

he pitched 215 innings last season. he's started >30 games for 3 years in a row. that's worth a lot in itself.

as long as they use him in the playoffs, I don't see what matters if he's their #3 or #4. he's easily a top 60 MLB pitcher and that makes him a #2 SP. he might even be top 30 and that makes him a low-end #1 or high-end #2. they replaced 200 innings of Porcello with (if healthy) 200 innings of Sanchez.

he had labrum surgery so as far as I'm concerned, only the last 3 seasons post-op really matter. he's played in front of atrocious defenses and still managed solid #s.

bottom line is there are just not enough good SPs to go around. the replacement level SP is very bad, and that makes a solidly above average SP worth more than one might think at first glance.

this might surprise you. http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=pit&lg=all&qual=y&type=8&season=2012&month=0&season1=2010&ind=0&team=0&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0

definitely don't think fWAR is the end all be all, but it does display the value of his durability as well as strip the negative effects of the Marlins/Tigers defenses in theory.

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http://www.usatoday....tigers/1768619/

Reports now are that he is signing a 5yr $80 million deal with the Tigers. Otherwise known as the same contract the Tigers gave Verlander. This feels like far too much money and the Tigers should probably get ready to redo Verlanders deal early based off this. From 4 years $48 million to 5 years $80 million...unreal. Way to play that one out Dombrowski!

All for a guy that USA Today has this to say about, which is fact:

Sanchez, 28, was 9-13 with a 3.86 ERA combined with the Tigers and Miami Marlins last season. He has a 48-51 career record with a 3.75 ERA. He has never pitched 200 innings, with only one winning season since 2006

again, you already know this, but comparing Sanchez to older contracts, especially a guy who wasn't a FA, just makes no sense. different time, different circumstance. when Edwin Jackson signs, we can compare the two contracts.

the only reason to quote W-L record is to spin this signing. Cliff Lee won 6 games last year. did he pitch poorly?

5/70 seemed about right, Tigers were willing to do what it takes so maybe it's a slight overpay, but they were in a position where adding Sanchez really puts them over the top in that division for the next several years.

I understand that its not a great idea to compare contracts, I still think this is a pretty steep overpay for the services of Sanchez based on what hes done with his career. Hes a 3/4 starter for Detroit whos now making $16 million per year. I dont place any value in his w/l more that hes never pitched 200 innings, is a gut that is not great with ERA and has poor WHIP for his career. He rode a hot end of a season to a big contract with Detroit and leveraged the Cubs offer to get exactly what he wants, I just dont see this as a good signing to be honest. Time will tell if he can sustain pitching success to really validate the deal (though the money does keep going up). I think it becomes problematic when you pay him as much as Verlander and have both Verlander and Scherzer coming due for new deals soon.

he pitched 215 innings last season. he's started >30 games for 3 years in a row. that's worth a lot in itself.

as long as they use him in the playoffs, I don't see what matters if he's their #3 or #4. he's easily a top 60 MLB pitcher and that makes him a #2 SP. he might even be top 30 and that makes him a low-end #1 or high-end #2. they replaced 200 innings of Porcello with (if healthy) 200 innings of Sanchez.

he had labrum surgery so as far as I'm concerned, only the last 3 seasons post-op really matter. he's played in front of atrocious defenses and still managed solid #s.

bottom line is there are just not enough good SPs to go around. the replacement level SP is very bad, and that makes a solidly above average SP worth more than one might think at first glance.

Whoops missed the 215 innings combined this year! Hes a 4 starter for Detroit, no ones going to convince me that $16 million per year for a four starter with his career path is worth it. But, to each their own.

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http://www.usatoday....tigers/1768619/

Reports now are that he is signing a 5yr $80 million deal with the Tigers. Otherwise known as the same contract the Tigers gave Verlander. This feels like far too much money and the Tigers should probably get ready to redo Verlanders deal early based off this. From 4 years $48 million to 5 years $80 million...unreal. Way to play that one out Dombrowski!

All for a guy that USA Today has this to say about, which is fact:

Sanchez, 28, was 9-13 with a 3.86 ERA combined with the Tigers and Miami Marlins last season. He has a 48-51 career record with a 3.75 ERA. He has never pitched 200 innings, with only one winning season since 2006

again, you already know this, but comparing Sanchez to older contracts, especially a guy who wasn't a FA, just makes no sense. different time, different circumstance. when Edwin Jackson signs, we can compare the two contracts.

the only reason to quote W-L record is to spin this signing. Cliff Lee won 6 games last year. did he pitch poorly?

5/70 seemed about right, Tigers were willing to do what it takes so maybe it's a slight overpay, but they were in a position where adding Sanchez really puts them over the top in that division for the next several years.

I understand that its not a great idea to compare contracts, I still think this is a pretty steep overpay for the services of Sanchez based on what hes done with his career. Hes a 3/4 starter for Detroit whos now making $16 million per year. I dont place any value in his w/l more that hes never pitched 200 innings, is a gut that is not great with ERA and has poor WHIP for his career. He rode a hot end of a season to a big contract with Detroit and leveraged the Cubs offer to get exactly what he wants, I just dont see this as a good signing to be honest. Time will tell if he can sustain pitching success to really validate the deal (though the money does keep going up). I think it becomes problematic when you pay him as much as Verlander and have both Verlander and Scherzer coming due for new deals soon.

he pitched 215 innings last season. he's started >30 games for 3 years in a row. that's worth a lot in itself.

as long as they use him in the playoffs, I don't see what matters if he's their #3 or #4. he's easily a top 60 MLB pitcher and that makes him a #2 SP. he might even be top 30 and that makes him a low-end #1 or high-end #2. they replaced 200 innings of Porcello with (if healthy) 200 innings of Sanchez.

he had labrum surgery so as far as I'm concerned, only the last 3 seasons post-op really matter. he's played in front of atrocious defenses and still managed solid #s.

bottom line is there are just not enough good SPs to go around. the replacement level SP is very bad, and that makes a solidly above average SP worth more than one might think at first glance.

Whoops missed the 215 innings combined this year! Hes a 4 starter for Detroit, no ones going to convince me that $16 million per year for a four starter with his career path is worth it. But, to each their own.

don't understand why it matters if he's a #4 on their team. it's like saying a team with a stacked lineup shouldn't sign a good hitter to bat 7th. an improvement is an improvement. as long as they use him in the playoffs then it makes no difference whether he's #2 or #4. it's going to make them dominant in that division for the next few years.

I am very interested in seeing what Edwin Jackson winds up getting. we need to see more signings to get more context. contracts seem to have gone up a lot this off-season. if he gets 3/40 then Sanchez looks like an overpay. if he gets 4/60 then it's right in line.

fair point about Verlander and Scherzer. if they can't lock up Verlander because of this then that is a disaster.

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