Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

GreenGold74

Jurickson Profar 2013 Outlook

990 posts in this topic

Its encouraging that the Rangers value the prized prospect they have in rebutting him in all the major trade discussions to this point. At the same time there is still no open spot for the much hyped SS too. Will the Rangers be desperate in their need to fill their ace SP void offer Profar or Andrus to the Mets for Dickey??? I forsee alot of angst in what his value in the early drafts are if we go into spring training with Kinsler and Andrus still on the roster. Alot of time before ST for the dust to settle but this could be one of the more volatile prerankings coming into the season. Some will buy into the hype and tremendous long term value. Others will argue he will be a waste of roster spot early in the season and not want to pay a high price on draft day.

What are everyone's expectations and projections for how everything will fall for Profar in '13?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I'm committed to him in a keeper league where we have to keep 6 people, but I'm not expecting a great 2013 fantasy season or anything.

It does appear there is a good chance he starts the season as their opening day 2b, and in 2013 might have dual MI eligibility. I think for a full season in the bigs at 20 or whatever he has a good shot at hitting double digit homers and SBs.... which if he carries a 275 BA or higher with, is pretty useful albeit not elite. Put me down for 12-270-15. Wont guess on the Runs or RBIs without having a good idea of where he bats.

Went ahead and looked up fangraphs and..

I guess Bill James currently has him down for 16-264-20

Overall his ADP might be a little high this year if he gets a lot of hype due to Mike Trout and Bryce Harper's season last year.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I think there's still more than smoke to the J-Up trade rumors, FWIW. Just a gut feeling, sadly, for now...

(Which if it's not clear, has to involve 1 of the 2 SS's, which would then free up Profar one way or the other)

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

There are many possibilities that can still come to pass. Rangers management could feel pressure to make some kind of impactful move after losing out on Shields and Greinke and make a play for Upton and Dickey. I think in both those situations the path for a starting position could be as simple as Olt being dealt and Kinsler moving to first to make room. If they deal for Upton the D-Backs assuredly will want a SS in return and won't budge on that demand which would mean they'd trade either Andrus or Profar. Profar as a D-Back or Ranger doesn't kill his value or upside in the least and might actually increase since he'd have a better opportunity to hit higher up the batting order on a rebuilding team.

Even if Olt is moved and they clear up a position at 2B this season I am not sure his fantasy value will be anything special. For one I feel like they'd leave Andrus and Kinsler atop the order so you'd be looking at him getting his feet wet hitting 8th or 9th. So his runs would be depressed and possibly some of his SB's. If they don't deal Olt and plan on playing him at 1B significantly then Profar's playing time this season will be limited to the point they may actually consider starting him in AAA to preserve some of his service time and give him more AB's to develop rather than platoon him 3 or 4 games a week. Ultimately I feel like Bill James projections are the realistic output we can expect as a floor which in the big picture given the weakening offensive output of the SS position isn't all that bad for a 20 year old. But he is clearly going to likely to receive some of the Matt Moore type hype going into early drafts and someone is going to have to overpay for him if they want him.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

There are many possibilities that can still come to pass. Rangers management could feel pressure to make some kind of impactful move after losing out on Shields and Greinke and make a play for Upton and Dickey. I think in both those situations the path for a starting position could be as simple as Olt being dealt and Kinsler moving to first to make room. If they deal for Upton the D-Backs assuredly will want a SS in return and won't budge on that demand which would mean they'd trade either Andrus or Profar. Profar as a D-Back or Ranger doesn't kill his value or upside in the least and might actually increase since he'd have a better opportunity to hit higher up the batting order on a rebuilding team.

Even if Olt is moved and they clear up a position at 2B this season I am not sure his fantasy value will be anything special. For one I feel like they'd leave Andrus and Kinsler atop the order so you'd be looking at him getting his feet wet hitting 8th or 9th. So his runs would be depressed and possibly some of his SB's. If they don't deal Olt and plan on playing him at 1B significantly then Profar's playing time this season will be limited to the point they may actually consider starting him in AAA to preserve some of his service time and give him more AB's to develop rather than platoon him 3 or 4 games a week. Ultimately I feel like Bill James projections are the realistic output we can expect as a floor which in the big picture given the weakening offensive output of the SS position isn't all that bad for a 20 year old. But he is clearly going to likely to receive some of the Matt Moore type hype going into early drafts and someone is going to have to overpay for him if they want him.

I thought they were more optimistic than a floor. Those numbers would be great for a 20 year old MI.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Everyone touts him as some generational quality SS so the numbers may seem optimistic but in line with what talent of that elite level could put up. Especally given the offensive support he'd be surrounded by and pitchers not focussing on getting him out as much. Those numbers seem to assume Kinsler will play alot of 1B and Profar would get 450 or so AB's at least. I just think if things stay status quo its going to be a hard sell to draft him as high as you might actually have to in redraft leagues because as of now his PT is very uncertain. Personally I am of the belief in wanting to see what the prospect does in the big leagues first before I invest a keeper slot or high pick. You might miss out on some but better than giving up a sure thing in the hopes you have the next Hanley.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

As of this second, I'm penciling Profar in to be the every day 2b and batting in the latter half of the lineup. I just don't see how he doesn't crack the starting lineup even with Hamilton back. Kinsler at 1st. Moreland/Olt as DH/subs.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

So is he projected to be in their starting lineup this coming year?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Kinsler to the OF, Profar at 2nd has been my prediction since last season and I'm sticking to it...if he has a nice spring he'll stay up, and if he stays he will play. The Rangers have 2 OF spots up in the air right now...LF/CF. David Murphy probably deserves a spot. Not sure why Kinsler would move to first with Olt and Moreland as options. One thing for sure is the Rangers will have lots of flexibility in terms of guys playing multiple positions, which should keep the team fresh.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I'd think ot to be highly unlikely he cracks the team out of spring. But I'm sure he will get a mid season look.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I'd think ot to be highly unlikely he cracks the team out of spring. But I'm sure he will get a mid season look.

He could make the team out of spring. But I wouldn't expect him too. He was very solid at AA, but really there's no reason The Rangers rush him to the show as they have Elvis Andrus and Ian Kinsler.

I'm thinking he starts in AAA and gets his first look when Kinsler goes down as day-to-day for 2 weeks+. Very surprised to see Kinsler break 155 games two years in a row.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

why were they so reluctant to move Andrus for Upton with Profar in the fold?

Kinsler will be moved off of 2B for Profar eventually, possibly as soon as this year.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Olt and Profar won't be on the opening day roster unless there is an injury....

Jeff Wilson ‏@JeffWilson_FWST

Jon Daniels says Jurickson Profar and Mike Olt won't make #Rangers roster if there isn't regular playing time for them.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Well apparently the Rangers continue to pursue J-Up and would think either Andrus or Profar would be part of that package.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Well apparently the Rangers continue to pursue J-Up and would think either Andrus or Profar would be part of that package.

I don't see how they could get upton without Andrus or Profar... I don't think Olt and Perez would be enough unless the D Backs get desperate.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Well apparently the Rangers continue to pursue J-Up and would think either Andrus or Profar would be part of that package.

UP

I don't see how they could get upton without Andrus or Profar... I don't think Olt and Perez would be enough unless the D Backs get desperate.

Not sure about the years remaining on the JUP contract but I would think trading at least Andrus would be a no-brainer to get JUP. There's no point in having two light hitting SS's and Kinsler's value is at 2nd.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I agree why aren't the rangers trading a ss for Upton? Seems silly not to trade depth for a legit starter in their outfield.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

There's no point in having two light hitting SS's and Kinsler's value is at 2nd.

I would not say Profar is 'light hitting'. He's had OPS numbers of .883 and .820, both times a couple years young for his level. Andrus at the same time period and levels was .682 and .717. Thats a pretty big difference.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

There's no point in having two light hitting SS's and Kinsler's value is at 2nd.

I would not say Profar is 'light hitting'. He's had OPS numbers of .883 and .820, both times a couple years young for his level. Andrus at the same time period and levels was .682 and .717. Thats a pretty big difference.

Then trade Andrus.

I doubt Profar will be a 25+ homer guy. I have him as a keeper and I can't envision him hitting more than 20 homers over the next two or three years. He only weighs 165lbs at 6'. JUP would be a beast in Arlington.

I still say the Rangers would be stupid not to give up a great prospect at SS in Profar, keep Andrus and Kinsler in the middle and have JUP 35+ homer power in the OF.

Some GMs want to go for the dominant trade so bad and are so risk-averse to giving up anything they end up losing out. For the most part you have to give up something to get value back. Giving up Olt for JUP would be crazy (I realize he Olt wouldn't be the only player but it would be a classic quantity for quality trade) and would be getting something great for basically nothing special. You can't be a good GM without taking risks or someone else usually will beat you to the punch The Rangers can't be so afraid to lose out on what Profar might be and not go after what the player JUP is now.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

None of us really know all the details of what has been discussed between the Dbacks and Rangers. We hear what leaks out or what they want us to know. Same with all deals.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Not surprising in the least.

Jurickson Profar will begin the season in the minors.

It's been obvious for a while, but the Rangers made it official Tuesday when Leury Garcia was awarded a spot on the Opening Day roster. Profar has plenty of potential, but he's better off playing everyday in the minors as opposed to getting occasional at-bats off the Rangers' bench. We'll see him eventually and he should be worth owning in mixed leagues if there's an injury.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

The Andrus extension is a mild suprise and pretty clearly says Profar will play 2B long-term. It also seems clear that Kinsler is going to be asked to move off the keystone. Since Kinsler is also signed long-term, that can happen at any point (the biggest obstacle seems to have been Kinsler's own reluctance. However, a move or his own trade seem inevitable). While an offseason transition is likely easiest on Kinsler, that seems way too far off. The easiest answer is ask to have him slide over to 1B sometime this season. Moreland can either be a sub or fill in the outfield.

Profar got 33 days of service last season. They likely want him to finish with less than one year of service time at the end of the season. Since a full year of service is 172 days, they need to make sure he gets no more than 138 days of service (171 - 33) this season. That roughly equates to mid-May. Provided that Profar hits in AAA and Moreland is not lighting it up, one might be expected to see Profar come up in mid-to-late May.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites