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dzemens

Texas Rangers 2013 Outlook

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Reports now are that TEX might go 3 years on Laroche. Kind of wonder if this might pique interest in Swisher. Seems like hed be a good fit there, they could use another OF and hes a solid switch hitter to add to the lineup.

Anyone else think Profar and Olt will break spring with the big club after Hamilton left?

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Reports now are that TEX might go 3 years on Laroche. Kind of wonder if this might pique interest in Swisher. Seems like hed be a good fit there, they could use another OF and hes a solid switch hitter to add to the lineup.

Anyone else think Profar and Olt will break spring with the big club after Hamilton left?

I'd imagine Swisher is going to get a lot more than LaRoche though. Swisher maybe like 4/60 and LaRoche maybe 3/40.

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Reports now are that TEX might go 3 years on Laroche. Kind of wonder if this might pique interest in Swisher. Seems like hed be a good fit there, they could use another OF and hes a solid switch hitter to add to the lineup.

Anyone else think Profar and Olt will break spring with the big club after Hamilton left?

I'd imagine Swisher is going to get a lot more than LaRoche though. Swisher maybe like 4/60 and LaRoche maybe 3/40.

If I had to choose Id probably take Swisher, thats just me though I guess as he can play OF and 1B as well as being a switch hitter and marginally younger.

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Reports now are that TEX might go 3 years on Laroche. Kind of wonder if this might pique interest in Swisher. Seems like hed be a good fit there, they could use another OF and hes a solid switch hitter to add to the lineup.

Anyone else think Profar and Olt will break spring with the big club after Hamilton left?

I'd imagine Swisher is going to get a lot more than LaRoche though. Swisher maybe like 4/60 and LaRoche maybe 3/40.

If I had to choose Id probably take Swisher, thats just me though I guess as he can play OF and 1B as well as being a switch hitter and marginally younger.

totally agree. LaRoche will inevitably be overpaid just based on him coming off his career year.

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Napoli gone

M.Young gone

J.Hamilton gone

R.Dempster gone

Last year early favorites now seems not so good does it? How much they can get from Olt&Profar?

Possible trades? Upton maybe but chances are not so good. LaRoche for 1b maybe more realistic.

About pitchers, Ogando will be starter this year could be interesting. Harrison had great year Darvish could be better. Feliz? Is he coming back?

I just don't see how they compete with Angels in AL West but hey we did think A's will be in last place by this time last year.

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Napoli gone

M.Young gone

J.Hamilton gone

R.Dempster gone

Last year early favorites now seems not so good does it? How much they can get from Olt&Profar?

Possible trades? Upton maybe but chances are not so good. LaRoche for 1b maybe more realistic.

About pitchers, Ogando will be starter this year could be interesting. Harrison had great year Darvish could be better. Feliz? Is he coming back?

I just don't see how they compete with Angels in AL West but hey we did think A's will be in last place by this time last year.

Dempster and Young aren't losses. They were largely awful and over the hill, respectively. Losing the power of Napoli and the overall game and middle of the order presence of Hamilton will hurt the most. The 2012 FA pool was pretty shallow so there is some thought that if they couldn't get any FA's for the right price, then they may only do some small things, let the kids play and then reassess at the deadline and get ready for a much deeper 2013-14 FA pool.

Right now, I would think this will be the lineup:

Kinsler - 1b

Profar - 2b

Andrus - SS

Beltre - 3b

Cruz - RF

Gentry/Martin - CF

Murphy - LF

Soto - C (Yuck)

Olt/Moreland - DH and utlitility

SP:

Darvish

Harrison

Holland

Ogando

Ross or Perez

Definitely a downgrade, no doubt about it. I would imagine there may be another move in there. Maybe Laroche, maybe Swisher. But if they had to play today, I would think that would be the way it looks. Transition year and if/when Beltre or Cruz gets hurt then you have a major power outage and they would play a lot more small ball....

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I mentioned this in the CIN thread, but for the TEX outlook, I think we'll find out just how seriously Towers loves Didi Gregorius, because I'm guessing Daniels would give up Profar for J-Up now...

Plan B would definitely make sense with Laroche or Swisher - TEX could use more LH power to take advantage of that wind tunnel...

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I mentioned this in the CIN thread, but for the TEX outlook, I think we'll find out just how seriously Towers loves Didi Gregorius, because I'm guessing Daniels would give up Profar for J-Up now...

Plan B would definitely make sense with Laroche or Swisher - TEX could use more LH power to take advantage of that wind tunnel...

Very, very doubtful. Andrus? Probably. But Profar? Not likely, but you never know when folks are feeling the heat....

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I mentioned this in the CIN thread, but for the TEX outlook, I think we'll find out just how seriously Towers loves Didi Gregorius, because I'm guessing Daniels would give up Profar for J-Up now...

Plan B would definitely make sense with Laroche or Swisher - TEX could use more LH power to take advantage of that wind tunnel...

Very, very doubtful. Andrus? Probably. But Profar? Not likely, but you never know when folks are feeling the heat....

Honestly, though, I don't know why ARI would want Andrus (not that he isn't really great in real-life with his D, and a threat at the top of the lineup), since it's for J-Up...if you're going to give up an elite, top-10 overall skills player (when healthy), with MVP ceiling, who's cheap for 3 years, you get someone who's elite back at another position, or an elite prospect for the 6+ years (again at a need position), but not in-between for only 2 years - which is what Andrus represents. Profar may not have the certainty of Andrus, but he offers cheap SS value at 6+ years (and way, way, way higher ceiling than Gregorius - and like others, I think Profar has greater real-life value than fantasy, but it's real-life trade value we're discussing, to be clear).

Then again, I would have said the same about Bauer & the return he should have fetched and the return ARI go (still can't see any angle that works other than Towers being blackmailed).....at least for ARI's sake, TEX is now under the gun, and J-Up is the only big bat that teams even thought of trading away, so this could become really interesting... If ARI really is set, then Laroche/Swisher are sure to get offers from Daniels...

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Thinking on this overnight, assuming the Snakes aren't open to dealing J-Up anymore (and that would be my plan A from the start), then I think a different plan B than Laroche/Swisher should address CF & C to upgrade their O - by signing AJ Pierzynski to a 2-year deal, and then getting in the market and taking advantage of the fact Michael Bourn doesn't have any fits with contenders - and get him on a 3-year deal.

The lineup then looks like:

Bourn CF

Andrus SS

Kinsler 1B

Beltre 3B

Cruz RF

Pierzynski C

Murphy/Gentry LF

Moreland/Olt DH

Profar 2B (no pressure early on)

I'd go that way because it might create a ripple effect - in that Laroche might fall into their laps at below-market value if they lock up CF & C - and thus can position themselves as having no holes to fill and getting Laroche as a luxury item at DH.

Neither plan is as good as gettting J-Up (even for Profar), but it's also avoiding having to overpay to middle-tier FA's like Laroche/Swisher (as 2 years for AJ & 3 for Bourn, at least those are filling real positional needs that I see - don't see Martin as anything but league-average, albeit cheap). Bourn, Andrus & Kinsler could wreak havoc on the basepaths before the middle of the lineup.

EDIT: Sean-O alluded to the Pierzynski fit - I think that's a clear need, and unless AJ holds out for 3 guaranteed years, seems like a no-brainer. The only alternative I see on the C market is a trade for Salty - if the price was right, that's totally worth exploring (if the fanbase can forgive him for his slow development...)

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What about trading for Arencibia? The Jays have a surplus of catching, although I'm not sure what Texas could offer them in regards of a prospect.

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I mentioned this in the CIN thread, but for the TEX outlook, I think we'll find out just how seriously Towers loves Didi Gregorius, because I'm guessing Daniels would give up Profar for J-Up now...

Plan B would definitely make sense with Laroche or Swisher - TEX could use more LH power to take advantage of that wind tunnel...

Very, very doubtful. Andrus? Probably. But Profar? Not likely, but you never know when folks are feeling the heat....

Honestly, though, I don't know why ARI would want Andrus (not that he isn't really great in real-life with his D, and a threat at the top of the lineup), since it's for J-Up...if you're going to give up an elite, top-10 overall skills player (when healthy), with MVP ceiling, who's cheap for 3 years, you get someone who's elite back at another position, or an elite prospect for the 6+ years (again at a need position), but not in-between for only 2 years - which is what Andrus represents. Profar may not have the certainty of Andrus, but he offers cheap SS value at 6+ years (and way, way, way higher ceiling than Gregorius - and like others, I think Profar has greater real-life value than fantasy, but it's real-life trade value we're discussing, to be clear).

Then again, I would have said the same about Bauer & the return he should have fetched and the return ARI go (still can't see any angle that works other than Towers being blackmailed).....at least for ARI's sake, TEX is now under the gun, and J-Up is the only big bat that teams even thought of trading away, so this could become really interesting... If ARI really is set, then Laroche/Swisher are sure to get offers from Daniels...

While I think everyone agrees that Upton's ceiling is higher than Andrus', I think we've seen his floor is much lower as well. Already a litany of injuries, maturity issues, and fleeting concentration, the question will be every year with Upton is which guy will show up? With his speed settling in and only going to be reduced over time (as his power should increase), he's probably more of that 4 tool guy then 5 tool. You also have to worry about the dramatic decline in defense. I realize he had some injuries last year that nagged at him but he also had plenty of attitude problems as well (the only reason the Snakes are considering dealing him) and if you watched him, he wasn't an engaged defender.

Again, not crushing Upton, it's just the risks that go with him. Andrus is steadier and should eventually settle in as a 5 WAR, top of the order, elite defense type SS. No drama with Elvis, he hasn't had any injuries, always a great attitude. His risk premium is much lower. The last two years I think reflect the two players benefits and risks. Upton was great in 2011 and disappointing in 2012. Andrus much more steady. Their WARs are basically equal for those two years. Again, paying for Upton's upside is one thing but one must not overpay for a player with a lot of warts. Andrus and someone like Olt for Upton and a lower level prospect would probably get it done but Texas has been reticent to put Andrus in a package.

Profar is an entirely different subject and the Rangers have maintained he's about as untouchable as they come unless they are blown away by a package. Prospects are much more difficult to assess b/c it's more qualitative than quantitative, even with minor league stats, especially with 19 year old kid who hasn't grown into his body. Rangers love Profar's upside and more than that, his work ethic and attitude. Has a lot of Elvis in him but with a much larger upside. Now, we can all banter about the wisdom of having "untouchable" prospects in an organization and I don't believe Profar is "untouchable" but he's fairly close and I don't think the Rangers desire Upton to that degree b/c of his lack of consistency.

It's an interesting situation surrounding Upton, an organization could be buying low on a kid that struggled with a painful thumb injury and didn't know how to emotionally deal with it or they could be acquiring a kid that will always have something bothering him, has a bit of diva in him, and never reach his full potential with any consistency. Is Upton more 2011 or 2012? Or both? Probably both and I do think he'll put it all together at some point and have a monster season but how many will you get? Who is Upton comparable too? Difficult to say.

Regardless, I could see the Rangers going after AJP (ugh) and Swisher. Laroche is in there too, but I would rather stay away from a 33 year old coming off a career year. Maybe on a 2 year deal, but not 3. Swisher is more consistent, better OBP%, better patience, and more versatile. Those two would be a good start and allow the Rangers to still get ABs for guys like Profar, Martin and probably Olt to see what they have.....Bourn doesn't fit with the Rangers. Very good player, but unless the Rangers want to go small ball, they don't need his speed so badly to meet his contract demands. He wouldn't really improve the defense and he would block other players that the Rangers would like to play. Don't see that as a match, but you never know....

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the reason Upton isn't worth as much as Andrus is because Upton has 3 years, 38.5 million on his contract. Andrus has 3 years, 14.4 left on his deal.

what would each guy get on the open market in a 3 year deal?

maybe Upton would get 3 years, 60 million (and I think that is generous)

maybe Andrus would get 3 years, 45 million (conservative)

so Upton is getting paid like a guy who is 8 mill a year more valuable than Andrus but in reality may be 4-5 mill a year more valuable.

there is a little sneaky value in having Upton in that his team gets first crack at extending him if he does become the perennial MVP candidate we think he is capable of becoming.

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the reason Upton isn't worth as much as Andrus is because Upton has 3 years, 38.5 million on his contract. Andrus has 3 years, 14.4 left on his deal.

what would each guy get on the open market in a 3 year deal?

maybe Upton would get 3 years, 60 million (and I think that is generous)

maybe Andrus would get 3 years, 45 million (conservative)

so Upton is getting paid like a guy who is 8 mill a year more valuable than Andrus but in reality may be 4-5 mill a year more valuable.

there is a little sneaky value in having Upton in that his team gets first crack at extending him if he does become the perennial MVP candidate we think he is capable of becoming.

Quick clarification - Andrus only has 2 years left, FA in 2015. I agree about the value relative to salary - it's just that Upton's 3-years, the reasonable salary for his skills & ceiling, well, you get the idea...

I do think Andrus & Olt (as per PB) would have a ton of traction - if Towers isn't really that sold on Gregorius - but I think we won't ever find out...

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What about trading for Arencibia? The Jays have a surplus of catching, although I'm not sure what Texas could offer them in regards of a prospect.

TOR would be looking for pitching - which TEX needs. I would never count out AA & Daniels as both are creative, but the match isn't as clear so far. Plus the LH power is a better fit. If BOS is really open to dealing Salty and won't ask the moon, I'd be all over that as a Ranger fan..otherwise AJ on a short deal looks like the best fit to upgrade C.

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First piece of good news for Rangers - AJ Pierzynski signs for 1-year, 7.5M - a MUCH-needed signing. The only FA C with LH pop - and the real bonus is TEX didn't have to commit to more than 1 season for a guy in his 30's. Kinda surprised after E-Jax squeezing 4 years that AJ couldn't find 2-years from TEX, but good on them.

Still have a huge void to fill in the middle of the lineup, and either an elite talent via trade, or more LH power. Hard to see Swisher fitting the bill with the Tribe pushing hard - and as great of a year as he had in 2012, Laroche doesn't inspire fear...will be interesting to see how Daniels follows up now. I really think if the Rangers can't find the power bat, they explore going after Bourn, and go to a speed/D approach, until they can snag the big bat.

Imagine they get Bourn on a 2 to 3-year deal as the market thins out, then their lineup becomes:

Bourn CF

Andrus SS

Kinsler 2B

Beltre 3B

Cruz RF

Pierzynski C

DH???

Moreland/Olt 1B (strict platoon)

Murphy /Gentry LF (strict platoon)

I left out Profar - as the piece to get the huge bat / arm upgrade...

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First piece of good news for Rangers - AJ Pierzynski signs for 1-year, 7.5M - a MUCH-needed signing. The only FA C with LH pop - and the real bonus is TEX didn't have to commit to more than 1 season for a guy in his 30's. Kinda surprised after E-Jax squeezing 4 years that AJ couldn't find 2-years from TEX, but good on them.

Still have a huge void to fill in the middle of the lineup, and either an elite talent via trade, or more LH power. Hard to see Swisher fitting the bill with the Tribe pushing hard - and as great of a year as he had in 2012, Laroche doesn't inspire fear...will be interesting to see how Daniels follows up now. I really think if the Rangers can't find the power bat, they explore going after Bourn, and go to a speed/D approach, until they can snag the big bat.

Imagine they get Bourn on a 2 to 3-year deal as the market thins out, then their lineup becomes:

Bourn CF

Andrus SS

Kinsler 2B

Beltre 3B

Cruz RF

Pierzynski C

DH???

Moreland/Olt 1B (strict platoon)

Murphy /Gentry LF (strict platoon)

I left out Profar - as the piece to get the huge bat / arm upgrade...

I'm shocked Pierzynski seemingly settled for a 1 year, 7.5 million contract when so many teams need help at catcher (including my beloved Yankees). Good signing for Texas.

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I said it before, I'll raise it again - with J-Up off the board (still can't believe Olt + prospects was seen as inferior to the ATL package) - then I think TEX should change it up, and go for a speed package with Bourn as their CF.

Bourn CF

Andrus SS

Kinsler 1B

Beltre 3B

Berkman DH

Cruz RF

Pierzynski C

Murphy/Gentry LF

Profar 2B

Might be the best way to go....Gentry/Martin in CF and Murphy in LF, if the Rangers only need to go 3 years with Bourn, I think it's a creative way to upgrade.

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With Profar firmly in the fold do all Rangers infielders lose a little more value? It looks like we might see spontaneous off-days for a lot of these guys.

Berkman seems to be the biggest loser here especially when it comes to playing inter-league since he won't see the field there either.

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