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baltimore_boy

R.A. Dickey 2013 Outlook

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While it's not official yet, it seems like the Mets are very close to sending Dickey to the Blue Jays. The reigning Cy Young winner is coming off a magical year. While he is old (38), his knuckler could keep it up and put up a solid year. Will his success transfer kindly to the AL East, or will he fall victim to the harsh environments the AL East hitting brings to pitchers?

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I want to believe in him, knucklers last forever. Go Dickey! Thats going to be an exciting team to watch

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I might be wrong, but imo when Dickey has the knuckleball doing it's thing, it doesn't matter what league/divison he's pitching in. It would baffle the old yankee's murder's row.

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I think his fantasy value takes a solid hit.

Im not sure about a solid hit. It might take a slight hit because of the division. I dont think the Sox are the sox of a couple years ago and they Yankees arent blow you out of the water great either. Maybe its just me though.

Still, i would bump him down a little in my rankings.

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I think his fantasy value takes a solid hit.

Im not sure about a solid hit. It might take a slight hit because of the division. I dont think the Sox are the sox of a couple years ago and they Yankees arent blow you out of the water great either. Maybe its just me though.

Still, i would bump him down a little in my rankings.

The whole DH vs P is one thing that warrants a hit.

Playing indoors helps Dickey because he's susceptible to bad outings due to the rain. However Citi Field is much friendlier than the Rodgers Centre. I hardly call the two a wash. Even those combined I'd still say thats a another slight hit for Dickey.

Phillies, Marlins (who are even worse), Nationals, and Braves are far easier lineups than Yanks, Sox, Orioles, and Rays. (not to mention the aggregate park factors)

I think last year was a best case scenario for Dickey in terms of peripheral numbers. There tends to be fluctuation amongst knucklers from year to year too.

All in all, no way I'm touching him this year as a top 10 pitcher. Although I don't think he falls of a cliff.

He doesn't even have that much increased win upside with him getting to 20 wins last year on the Mets.

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Rumor has it the deal is dead now because they could not find a suitable offer.

Interesting. I am surprised the Mets didn't take the money and run. It seemed like the Jays were blowing the competition away and had most of the leverage compared to the other suitors. They were bidding against themselves essentially.

It amazes me the Mets won't give him the sweet contract that he more than deserves.

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Rumor has it the deal is dead now because they could not find a suitable offer.

mlbtr is not reporting this so I'm doubting the validity of this. By most accounts it seems they're just figuring out the details.

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Is Thole headed to TOR with him? Cant imagine TOR has anyone that can catch a knuckler.

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Is Thole headed to TOR with him? Cant imagine TOR has anyone that can catch a knuckler.

Yes, reportedly, Thole is going with him. 4 players will be headed to NYM, and 3 players will be going to TOR.

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Rumor has it the deal is dead now because they could not find a suitable offer.

mlbtr is not reporting this so I'm doubting the validity of this. By most accounts it seems they're just figuring out the details.

Just something I saw from rotoinfo around 6 cst. I'd guess you are right though.

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Rumor has it the deal is dead now because they could not find a suitable offer.

mlbtr is not reporting this so I'm doubting the validity of this. By most accounts it seems they're just figuring out the details.

Just something I saw from rotoinfo around 6 cst. I'd guess you are right though.

I saw the same thing.

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Is Thole headed to TOR with him? Cant imagine TOR has anyone that can catch a knuckler.

Yes, reportedly, Thole is going with him. 4 players will be headed to NYM, and 3 players will be going to TOR.

Thanks! Ive been out of pocket all day, Im a bit behind the curve atm.

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Is Thole headed to TOR with him? Cant imagine TOR has anyone that can catch a knuckler.

Yes, reportedly, Thole is going with him. 4 players will be headed to NYM, and 3 players will be going to TOR.

Thanks! Ive been out of pocket all day, Im a bit behind the curve atm.

No problem.

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According to RW the deal is almost done, should look something like this:

Joel Sherman of the New York Post confirms that the Mets and Blue Jays are nearing the completion of a seven-player trade involving knuckleballer R.A. Dickey.

As currently constructed, the trade would send Dickey, Josh Thole and an unnamed (non-elite) prospect to the Blue Jays in exchange for Travis d'Arnaud, John Buck, Noah Syndergaard and an unnamed (non-elite) prospect. Nothing is expected to be finalized until Sunday, so the parameters of the swap could certainly change before then.

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Of course his value is going to go down, he was the #1 pitcher in 2012, but the question is how much? His 3 yr avg of ERA and WHIP are 2.95 and 1.15, but his best years were in 2012, which were 2.73 and 1.05. With the switch to the AL, I'd bump his 2013 ERA and whip projections to 3.25 and 1.25, and his K/9 should go down by 1. Asuming 220 IP I'd estimate 196K's. I'll give him 16 W's. All told, top 25 material, maybe even top 20.

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Of course his value is going to go down, he was the #1 pitcher in 2012, but the question is how much? His 3 yr avg of ERA and WHIP are 2.95 and 1.15, but his best years were in 2012, which were 2.73 and 1.05. With the switch to the AL, I'd bump his 2013 ERA and whip projections to 3.25 and 1.25, and his K/9 should go down by 1. Asuming 220 IP I'd estimate 196K's. I'll give him 16 W's. All told, top 25 material, maybe even top 20.

I disagree with everything here basically. Don't compare leagues and suggest his #'s will go up. They will probably go up just because he was so dominant last year. Hard to duplicate a year like that. When Dickey is on and has that knuckler dancing, it doesnt matter what league he's pitching in. You wont be able to hit him. So i'd be careful trying to use competition as a variable here. He's that unorthodox.

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Of course his value is going to go down, he was the #1 pitcher in 2012, but the question is how much? His 3 yr avg of ERA and WHIP are 2.95 and 1.15, but his best years were in 2012, which were 2.73 and 1.05. With the switch to the AL, I'd bump his 2013 ERA and whip projections to 3.25 and 1.25, and his K/9 should go down by 1. Asuming 220 IP I'd estimate 196K's. I'll give him 16 W's. All told, top 25 material, maybe even top 20.

I disagree with everything here basically. Don't compare leagues and suggest his #'s will go up. They will probably go up just because he was so dominant last year. Hard to duplicate a year like that. When Dickey is on and has that knuckler dancing, it doesnt matter what league he's pitching in. You wont be able to hit him. So i'd be careful trying to use competition as a variable here. He's that unorthodox.

this is silly. he's not just immune to park and league effects. not as if pitchers and DHs hit against him with equal success. and when he has a bad day, the Yankees will punish him a lot worse than the Marlins would.

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Of course his value is going to go down, he was the #1 pitcher in 2012, but the question is how much? His 3 yr avg of ERA and WHIP are 2.95 and 1.15, but his best years were in 2012, which were 2.73 and 1.05. With the switch to the AL, I'd bump his 2013 ERA and whip projections to 3.25 and 1.25, and his K/9 should go down by 1. Asuming 220 IP I'd estimate 196K's. I'll give him 16 W's. All told, top 25 material, maybe even top 20.

I disagree with everything here basically. Don't compare leagues and suggest his #'s will go up. They will probably go up just because he was so dominant last year. Hard to duplicate a year like that. When Dickey is on and has that knuckler dancing, it doesnt matter what league he's pitching in. You wont be able to hit him. So i'd be careful trying to use competition as a variable here. He's that unorthodox.

this is silly. he's not just immune to park and league effects. not as if pitchers and DHs hit against him with equal success. and when he has a bad day, the Yankees will punish him a lot worse than the Marlins would.

No its not silly. When he's off (knuckle flat) , any team could and did hit him. Whether its the Marlins or Yanks. Did u watch Dickey last yr? He was either dominant (often) or pretty bad (not often). Not much in between.

In fact, if i had to guess, he had most of his success against teams within the division , which tells u alot right there since they see him the most.

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Of course his value is going to go down, he was the #1 pitcher in 2012, but the question is how much? His 3 yr avg of ERA and WHIP are 2.95 and 1.15, but his best years were in 2012, which were 2.73 and 1.05. With the switch to the AL, I'd bump his 2013 ERA and whip projections to 3.25 and 1.25, and his K/9 should go down by 1. Asuming 220 IP I'd estimate 196K's. I'll give him 16 W's. All told, top 25 material, maybe even top 20.

He gets me 3 and 1.25, and I'll be ecstatic

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As a Dickey dynasty owner, I think most owners can recognize there's pluses and minuses to any move from the Mets, namely:

MINUSES

1&2. Better lineups to face, smaller parks in AL East - it's not just the pitcher instead of the DH, it's that the bottom third of AL lineups are overall way more productive than most NL lineups - and it's exxaggerated in the AL East, with TOR, BAL, NY & BOS as very hitter-friendly parks. Mistakes in Citifield can stay in the park a lot easier than in Rogers Center, Yankee Stadium, the Monster & Camden (both LF way in a pronounced way).

PROS

1. Dickey doesn't have to hit in the AL - and so unlike last year, he won't get pulled if a pinch hitter is needed in a tight game. For leagues that count QS's, and for a greater likelihood to get wins (if you accept that pitching longer into games gives you a better chance to control the other team's O - I don't chase wins, but a pitcher who goes 7-8 IP is more likely to get W's than one that can't get to 6).

2. Dickey's K/9 might go down - but if he gets to pitch deeper into games, his K totals likely stay the same, even with a small decrease - because his IP goes up.

SKILLS

1. The big pro in Dickey's favor is that he's not a huge FB pitcher - ground balls & K's are a great way to neutralize small parks. Dickey's got that in his favor.

Really, it would be ridiculous to think he will continue to be a Cy Young candidate - everything went his way last year. BUT, his skills as a legit SP2 have been there since mid-2010 - and since knuckleballers take longer to learn their craft, it has the appearance of a sustainable surge into a top 15-20 SP, a true ace, if somewhat unconventional in how he produces.

For the AL, a 3.00/1.20 ERA / 200+K / 16+ W season (W's being the X-factor of course) puts you as a top 6-8 AL pitcher. So if he produces at that level, I'll be very happy as well. Unless he's REALLY unlucky and gets hurt (which you can't see for a knuckler as the same risk, given how low-stress the FB/knuckle combo is on pitchers), a 3.50 ERA/1.20 WHIP/180+ K/15 W floor with 35 starts is a nice pillow to land on (and which might be closer to the result he gets playing BOS/NYY/BAL and playing half the games in Rogers Center - when the roof is open, a real hitter's haven).

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Of course his value is going to go down, he was the #1 pitcher in 2012, but the question is how much? His 3 yr avg of ERA and WHIP are 2.95 and 1.15, but his best years were in 2012, which were 2.73 and 1.05. With the switch to the AL, I'd bump his 2013 ERA and whip projections to 3.25 and 1.25, and his K/9 should go down by 1. Asuming 220 IP I'd estimate 196K's. I'll give him 16 W's. All told, top 25 material, maybe even top 20.

I disagree with everything here basically. Don't compare leagues and suggest his #'s will go up. They will probably go up just because he was so dominant last year. Hard to duplicate a year like that. When Dickey is on and has that knuckler dancing, it doesnt matter what league he's pitching in. You wont be able to hit him. So i'd be careful trying to use competition as a variable here. He's that unorthodox.

this is silly. he's not just immune to park and league effects. not as if pitchers and DHs hit against him with equal success. and when he has a bad day, the Yankees will punish him a lot worse than the Marlins would.

No its not silly. When he's off (knuckle flat) , any team could and did hit him. Whether its the Marlins or Yanks. Did u watch Dickey last yr? He was either dominant (often) or pretty bad (not often). Not much in between.

In fact, if i had to guess, he had most of his success against teams within the division , which tells u alot right there since they see him the most.

I am a Mets fan in NY so it's safe to say I've watched him more than a few times over the past few years.

by your logic, it doesn't matter if he's playing against a little league team or the 1927 Yankees. good offenses take advantage of more pitcher mistakes than bad offenses. good offenses have a better chance against a pitcher who has his best stuff. doesn't matter if he's a knuckleballer or Verlander.

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A lot of oh no he's going to the AL East and such.

Honestly a divisional pitching change could be good for Dickey.

That being said I'm still not sure I'd end up with him on any of my teams outside of getting a great deal on him. He's just not my type of player.

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