Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

LyondellBasell

Eric Hosmer 2013 Outlook

821 posts in this topic

I was so high on this guy a year ago. He made the whole world mad. Still, I like the idea of getting him on my teams this year b/c i think where you should be able to get him, the return could be huge. A real difference maker. The question is, where is a good place to target him?

I'm also gonna assume he does his annual beating up of spring training pitchers, which will once again drive the hype train a bit.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I think he makes a gradual improvements over the next year or two and end up what we were expecting slowly in a 2-3 years.

BUT if he doesn't then call him Ian Stewart, call him Travis Snider. I hope not though.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I recall reading that his BABIP was horrific in '12, which could rebound next season. But how much of that was a result of pressing as his slump continued?

At the end of the day, he's hits a lot of grounders which may continue to suppress power.

With that said, I'll likely own him in a few redraft leagues next year - but not as my starting 1B.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

He's still worth taking to me and is someone I am going to be targeting. His ADP is going to drop as anyone that owned him last year is never going to even think about touching him after what he did. His potential is still huge and he should improve from last year (it'd be tough to get worse).

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I was so high on this guy a year ago. He made the whole world mad. Still, I like the idea of getting him on my teams this year b/c i think where you should be able to get him, the return could be huge. A real difference maker. The question is, where is a good place to target him?

I'm also gonna assume he does his annual beating up of spring training pitchers, which will once again drive the hype train a bit.

For sure post-hype sleeper. I like him, especially at a value. I just think by March, like another poster said above, the hype train will be rolling a bit. I remember Eric Gordon, he stunk for multiple years before people finally gave up, then he took off.

I think in auction league, 260 mixed 12-teamer, he is a $15-20 guy.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
I remember Eric Gordon, he stunk for multiple years before people finally gave up, then he took off.

I think in auction league, 260 mixed 12-teamer, he is a $15-20 guy.

You mean Alex Gordon? I think you got your NBA and MLB confused.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I recall reading that his BABIP was horrific in '12, which could rebound next season. But how much of that was a result of pressing as his slump continued?

At the end of the day, he's hits a lot of grounders which may continue to suppress power.

With that said, I'll likely own him in a few redraft leagues next year - but not as my starting 1B.

It was a combination of bad luck and the league having him figured out. The shift killed his BA but he made impressive adjustments for a such a young player. For him to.be as young as he is and struggle as much as he did and not get sent down speaks volumes of his level of talent and what the organization thinks of him.For as bad as a season as he had there were plenty of times where it looked like he was going to break out.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
I remember Eric Gordon, he stunk for multiple years before people finally gave up, then he took off.

I think in auction league, 260 mixed 12-teamer, he is a $15-20 guy.

You mean Alex Gordon? I think you got your NBA and MLB confused.

Yes Alex Gordon, thank you...I was actually listening to something and heard Eric Gordon's name mentioned, must be one of those subliminal things like the Coke Ads at the movies.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
I remember Eric Gordon, he stunk for multiple years before people finally gave up, then he took off.

I think in auction league, 260 mixed 12-teamer, he is a $15-20 guy.

You mean Alex Gordon? I think you got your NBA and MLB confused.

Yes Alex Gordon, thank you...I was actually listening to something and heard Eric Gordon's name mentioned, must be one of those subliminal things like the Coke Ads at the movies.

Lol yeah I hear you happens to me all the time. I'll tell a buddy a whole story about a guy and they are looking all confused at the end before Im like Oh did I say Edwin Jackson I meant Vincent Jackson.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

his highest OPS for any single month was .778. his highest slugging was .438.

for a first baseman.

wow.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

going to go out and say it and you all can bump this in July if he's raking:

people are going to take him in the 120-150th pick range and even there he will be a disappointment.

.275, 17 HR, 15 SB, 70 R, 75 RBI

pretty sure I'm going to want nothing to do with him come March.

1 person likes this

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

going to go out and say it and you all can bump this in July if he's raking:

people are going to take him in the 120-150th pick range and even there he will be a disappointment.

.275, 17 HR, 15 SB, 70 R, 75 RBI

pretty sure I'm going to want nothing to do with him come March.

Or he could be .300 25 HR 80 R 100 RBI and 15 SB....

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

going to go out and say it and you all can bump this in July if he's raking:

people are going to take him in the 120-150th pick range and even there he will be a disappointment.

.275, 17 HR, 15 SB, 70 R, 75 RBI

pretty sure I'm going to want nothing to do with him come March.

Or he could be .300 25 HR 80 R 100 RBI and 15 SB....

Well both are good projections. If you can pay for the bad poor Hosmer projection and get the good one, great. But if you pay for the good one and get the poor one then disappointment will come again. It's all about value on risky picks.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

going to go out and say it and you all can bump this in July if he's raking:

people are going to take him in the 120-150th pick range and even there he will be a disappointment.

.275, 17 HR, 15 SB, 70 R, 75 RBI

pretty sure I'm going to want nothing to do with him come March.

Or he could be .300 25 HR 80 R 100 RBI and 15 SB....

didn't say he couldn't, but I'm not banking on such tremendous improvement. I think it's more likely he takes a few small steps forward and stabilizes as a solid 1B. last year was just such an epic disaster that we can't just pretend it didn't happen.

it says a lot that he couldn't even muster 1 good month. even in players' disaster seasons, they usually can scrap together a decent month.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

going to go out and say it and you all can bump this in July if he's raking:

people are going to take him in the 120-150th pick range and even there he will be a disappointment.

.275, 17 HR, 15 SB, 70 R, 75 RBI

pretty sure I'm going to want nothing to do with him come March.

Hosmer still has a lot of potential though. When you are drafting in 120-150 range, I am looking for upside guys that could be great. Hosmer fits that. He could disappoint, but when you are at that point in the draft, it is worth taking a chance on someone like Hosmer.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

going to go out and say it and you all can bump this in July if he's raking:

people are going to take him in the 120-150th pick range and even there he will be a disappointment.

.275, 17 HR, 15 SB, 70 R, 75 RBI

pretty sure I'm going to want nothing to do with him come March.

Hosmer still has a lot of potential though. When you are drafting in 120-150 range, I am looking for upside guys that could be great. Hosmer fits that. He could disappoint, but when you are at that point in the draft, it is worth taking a chance on someone like Hosmer.

I can understand that. problem is, I want my 10th-12th round pick to be a guy I can bank on. not a guy whom I might want to drop before May 1. I don't think the potential is so great that it justifies the relatively large chance that he harms my team. I'd say it's more like top 30 or 40 hitter potential. not quite top 10 or even top 25 potential. jmo.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

going to go out and say it and you all can bump this in July if he's raking:

people are going to take him in the 120-150th pick range and even there he will be a disappointment.

.275, 17 HR, 15 SB, 70 R, 75 RBI

pretty sure I'm going to want nothing to do with him come March.

Hosmer still has a lot of potential though. When you are drafting in 120-150 range, I am looking for upside guys that could be great. Hosmer fits that. He could disappoint, but when you are at that point in the draft, it is worth taking a chance on someone like Hosmer.

I can understand that. problem is, I want my 10th-12th round pick to be a guy I can bank on. not a guy whom I might want to drop before May 1. I don't think the potential is so great that it justifies the relatively large chance that he harms my team. I'd say it's more like top 30 or 40 hitter potential. not quite top 10 or even top 25 potential. jmo.

How many round 10-12 guys have you "banked" on in the past? Usually by then I've drafted the core of my starting lineup and start looking for value picks, like Hosmer. And if you get a 3rd or 4th round talent in the 10-12 rounds, you're doing pretty good for yourself.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

going to go out and say it and you all can bump this in July if he's raking:

people are going to take him in the 120-150th pick range and even there he will be a disappointment.

.275, 17 HR, 15 SB, 70 R, 75 RBI

pretty sure I'm going to want nothing to do with him come March.

Hosmer still has a lot of potential though. When you are drafting in 120-150 range, I am looking for upside guys that could be great. Hosmer fits that. He could disappoint, but when you are at that point in the draft, it is worth taking a chance on someone like Hosmer.

I can understand that. problem is, I want my 10th-12th round pick to be a guy I can bank on. not a guy whom I might want to drop before May 1. I don't think the potential is so great that it justifies the relatively large chance that he harms my team. I'd say it's more like top 30 or 40 hitter potential. not quite top 10 or even top 25 potential. jmo.

How many round 10-12 guys have you "banked" on in the past? Usually by then I've drafted the core of my starting lineup and start looking for value picks, like Hosmer. And if you get a 3rd or 4th round talent in the 10-12 rounds, you're doing pretty good for yourself.

10th-12th picks are pretty much right in the middle of constructing your starting lineup. not like we're just filling our team out at that point.

obviously if he hits his upside, you did well. that's not the question.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

going to go out and say it and you all can bump this in July if he's raking:

people are going to take him in the 120-150th pick range and even there he will be a disappointment.

.275, 17 HR, 15 SB, 70 R, 75 RBI

pretty sure I'm going to want nothing to do with him come March.

I really like this projection,just what I had in mind.He'll be around those number with some good months and some bad ones.If I get him somehow and he starts really good,I'll be selling quickly.People going with .300/25/90 will be dissapointed.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

going to go out and say it and you all can bump this in July if he's raking:

people are going to take him in the 120-150th pick range and even there he will be a disappointment.

.275, 17 HR, 15 SB, 70 R, 75 RBI

pretty sure I'm going to want nothing to do with him come March.

I really like this projection,just what I had in mind.He'll be around those number with some good months and some bad ones.If I get him somehow and he starts really good,I'll be selling quickly.People going with .300/25/90 will be dissapointed.

.300/25/90 is easily within question for Hosmer.

Is it a lock? Not by any means. But look what he did as a 20 year old rookie.

In 128 games he hit .293 with 19 HR and 78 RBI as a 20 year old rookie. If he continued that over let's say 152 games (misses 10) he would have 23 HR and 93 RBI as a rookie. I can't help but think he isn't at least as good as he was when he was a rookie. He hit a sophomore slump hard and it pressed on him a bit last year.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

going to go out and say it and you all can bump this in July if he's raking:

people are going to take him in the 120-150th pick range and even there he will be a disappointment.

.275, 17 HR, 15 SB, 70 R, 75 RBI

pretty sure I'm going to want nothing to do with him come March.

I really like this projection,just what I had in mind.He'll be around those number with some good months and some bad ones.If I get him somehow and he starts really good,I'll be selling quickly.People going with .300/25/90 will be dissapointed.

.300/25/90 is easily within question for Hosmer.

Is it a lock? Not by any means. But look what he did as a 20 year old rookie.

In 128 games he hit .293 with 19 HR and 78 RBI as a 20 year old rookie. If he continued that over let's say 152 games (misses 10) he would have 23 HR and 93 RBI as a rookie. I can't help but think he isn't at least as good as he was when he was a rookie. He hit a sophomore slump hard and it pressed on him a bit last year.

So basically you're just going to ignore the atrocious year he had last year?

That's not objective analysis.

You simply cannot just throw away the possibility that he's the new Gordon Beckham

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Hosmer seems to be the type of guy I like but it depends on where he goes. Perhaps after his atrocious year, he'll come down to the price I'd pay for someone like him. I wanted him for $18 last year and he went for $25. If he drops to $15 due to his year, he could be worth the pick up as a CI.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I think he was just trying too hard last year. The ad campaign slogan this past year for the Royals in KC was "This is our time" and I wouldn't doubt that Hosmer put a lot of pressure on himself to try to make sure that it was "our time". I think with our improved pitching staff and our offense continuing to grow and gel together, I think a really nice bounce back season is in order for him.

I read a while back a Royals fan going to I think it was Wrigley or Yankee Stadium and talking to a fan who was up their in years and had got to watch a lot of good ball players in his day. The older fan said Hosmer had the nicest swing, or was the best hitter he'd seen since Ted Williams. I know that's ridiculous praise, but for someone who wasn't a fan of the Royals to say that I think says something about how talented he is and can be.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I do like him in the 10-15 round range depending on how deep the teams are and the benches, but I would much rather take him if I already have a consistent first basemen on my roster and then have Hosmer be my CI/Util player. The upside is there, but after last year there is a chance he doesn't play well again. I also think like previous posters have mentioned that the hype train increases due to a good spring training or offseason, and he starts getting drafted in the top ten rounds. I just don't think I can pull the trigger there. It will be interesting to see where Freeman gets drafted as they could be similar players next year.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.