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96mnc

Mike Minor 2013 Outlook

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he is going to be a trendy SP and I'm probably not going to own him. his "improvement" was BABIP fueled (2 months under .200), and he was not above average in any of the 3 skills (K, BB, GB). he is a flyball pitcher and that's going to make him prone to implosions and generally lead to an inflated ERA. I bet people will conveniently gloss over those BABIPs when they're pimping him as the next great Braves SP.

he can improve, and I'd own him, but I just know that he's going to be a trendy breakout SP pick and will be overvalued to me. the o-swing%, swinging strike %, contact% don't portent much improvement in Ks. scouts liked him and he had some crazy K numbers in 2010 but right now, that is all just wishcasting as opposed to looking at underlying skills that are already there.

looking at the Bill James projection, it projects a big spike in K% that leads to a 3.76 ERA and 1.26 WHIP. I think that's close to his upside, and it's back end fantasy SP material.

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I own him for $2 in a 130 cap league, I dont have great pitching, he might be a guy I keep and would hope to land 4-5 better starters or guys I have ranked higher.

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he is going to be a trendy SP and I'm probably not going to own him. his "improvement" was BABIP fueled (2 months under .200), and he was not above average in any of the 3 skills (K, BB, GB). he is a flyball pitcher and that's going to make him prone to implosions and generally lead to an inflated ERA. I bet people will conveniently gloss over those BABIPs when they're pimping him as the next great Braves SP.

he can improve, and I'd own him, but I just know that he's going to be a trendy breakout SP pick and will be overvalued to me. the o-swing%, swinging strike %, contact% don't portent much improvement in Ks. scouts liked him and he had some crazy K numbers in 2010 but right now, that is all just wishcasting as opposed to looking at underlying skills that are already there.

looking at the Bill James projection, it projects a big spike in K% that leads to a 3.76 ERA and 1.26 WHIP. I think that's close to his upside, and it's back end fantasy SP material.

There is also a lot in his favor as well.

He is a flyball pitcher, which means that we don't truly have a handle on where his BABIP will fall because we don't have enough data. Flyballs land in gloves a lot more, so flyball guys generally have very favorable BABIP.

His strand rate was also very poor last year at 70.6%, suggesting that whatever luck factors played into his BABIP were undone by guys scoring at a higher rate than they should have. The average is 72% for middle of the road pitchers and given that Minor had a very solid BB/9 and a decent K/9, he probably could have been a little better in that area.

The increased control looked like a guy turning the corner.

He had a really tough time with righties earlier in the year and they were killing him. So much so that there was talk of moving him to the pen. He changed his foot positioning on the mound and tried to become more deceptive in his delivery midseason. It seems to have paid off well. Fangraphs also suggest that the changes were helping him with location as well. http://www.fangraphs.com/fantasy/index.php/minor-makes-minor-change-for-non-minor-improvements/

I'm high on him. He has solid stuff. He has the pedigree and I love lefties that cut their walk rates and have excellent second halves in their first full seasons.

Guys will still see that 4.14 ERA and I think that will allow him to drop in some drafts. The trendy picks are usually the guys that only played part of the season and put up big numbers like Matt Harvey or Wily Peralta while I think a guy like Minor will drop a bit more in the draft and will be affordable on draft day as a backend fantasy starter. You never know though. It only takes one guy in your league to jump at those second half numbers.

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Mets and Marlins are going to have bottom 5 offenses so he has that going for him. And the Phillies have a left heavy lineup with the middle of the order hitters. He is in a great division to continue to blossom. I will be targeting him again this season. Hopefully he does not perform like Mike Minor Leaguer of the 1st half last year.

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Minor's BB/9 went from 3.91 in the first half to 1.65. Minor was also awful with runners to start the season but improved along the way: 56.2, 60, 70.6, 90.3, 73.4, 92.6 LOB% If he can limit walks and hold runners from scoring then he has the potential to be a #2 or 3 starter. Given his team, league, and division, I will be targeting him heavily.

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Minor gave up three homers today to the powerful Mets. I don't expect him to be trying his hardest against a division oponent a week before the season starts, but three homers is not good.

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How's he been the rest of spring? Just drafted him last night and expect him to put up SP2 or SP3 numbers.

I got him last night too. His era is around six 18Ks 14 Walks 4 homers (but three today).

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How's he been the rest of spring? Just drafted him last night and expect him to put up SP2 or SP3 numbers.

I got him last night too. His era is around six 18Ks 14 Walks 4 homers (but three today).

Hmm okay, I guess we'll see how his first "real" start goes.

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Has his first start tomorrow. it obviously isn't the tell all to end all but I think how he comes out of the gate will make owners feel very comfortable or very worried. How do you think his first start will go?

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Has his first start tomorrow. it obviously isn't the tell all to end all but I think how he comes out of the gate will make owners feel very comfortable or very worried. How do you think his first start will go?

Minor likes pitching at home and the Cubs are pretty weak:

6 IP, 2 ER, 5 H, 3 BB, 6 K and the W

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Minor owners should be encouraged by this: http://www.ajc.com/news/sports/braves-notes-minor-scraps-sinker-remains-confident/nXC9L/

He spent spring training working on a sinker, which likely explains the mediocre results and high BB rate. But he scrapped it for his last tuneup against the Braves AA guys, and thre 4 scoreless.

We know most of the time that ST stats don't really matter, but it's encouraging to know the mediocre performance by one of your big sleepers was actually explained, even anecdotally, by something like this.

Unfortunately, I don't own Minor anywhere, but I'd feel pretty good about him if I did...

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His overall line looks good so far tonight, but the Cubs have taken him to the warning track several times. Minors stuff definitely isn't his best tonight.

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The line is really nice. Maybe he struggles with higher caliber offenses, but it's a good game for him to gain some confidence and get loose.

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One thing that stood out was how much Minor's curve has improved. If he can wield that pitch all year, he will take a big step up this year.

http://www.brooksbaseball.net/pfxVB/pfx.php?month=4&day=5&year=2013&game=gid_2013_04_05_chnmlb_atlmlb_1%2F&pitchSel=501985&prevGame=gid_2013_04_05_chnmlb_atlmlb_1%2F&prevDate=45

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Wtf? This guy was cruising. Whyd they take him out with one more out for a QS at 101 pitches with a 6-0 lead?

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Well, with the game fully in hand, may as well save his bullets. But yeah, boo...

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